May 1, 20205 yr https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/cv19-asia/cv19-thailand/54-covid-19-deaths-compared-to-26000-road-deaths By all means, let's shut down the whole country for 54, but let's keep the roads open for 26,000. Makes sense.
May 1, 20205 yr And if worldwide road deaths started doubling every 4 days, would most countries take action?
May 1, 20205 yr 31 minutes ago, chessman said: And if worldwide road deaths started doubling every 4 days, would most countries take action? So will the C19 death toll be 460,000 by the 5th May ??
May 1, 20205 yr Author 40 minutes ago, chessman said: And if worldwide road deaths started doubling every 4 days, would most countries take action? I would suggest you look at some hard numbers compiled from around the world and compare to the flu. A flu has an IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) adjusted to take into account asymptomatic people of .04% Various studies around the world put covid IFR at between .12% and 1% With those numbers, there won't be doubling every 4 days and in fact, everyone would get herd immunity. --In the German town of Gangelt, the study’s authors came out to an IFR of 0.37%. --In the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, makes for an IFR of 0.8%. --In Los Angeles County, would imply an IFR range of 0.36% down to 0.18% https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far Bottom line, worldwide death rates will never be as you state, except very very early before people knew what was going on.
May 1, 20205 yr no road deaths MIGHT mean people are NOT going to work, buying stuff, and traveling to spend MONEY.... you didn't factor in suicides, loss of income, domestic abuse, lack of education, etc......which works out to be 8 BILLION people if the world stays in lock-down mode forever. so you can't compare the two.....but it's fine same as the ENVIRONMENT.....NO tourists but fish are saved!!!! so i say ban all tourists because now 8893574 trillion fish can be happier but what if the COVID deaths lead to WAR!!! oh boy.....
May 1, 20205 yr 44 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said: So will the C19 death toll be 460,000 by the 5th May ?? Obviously not, social distancing has reduced the R0 number to below 1 in most countries. There are lots of good arguments about different strategies and the best way to deal with the virus but comparing the deaths caused by an infectious virus with the potential to grow exponentially and a stable cause of death such as road accidents is not a good start.
May 1, 20205 yr Popular Post 7 minutes ago, chessman said: Obviously not, social distancing has reduced the R0 number to below 1 in most countries. There are lots of good arguments about different strategies and the best way to deal with the virus but comparing the deaths caused by an infectious virus with the potential to grow exponentially and a stable cause of death such as road accidents is not a good start. I don't think when people mention road deaths that they are comparing stable with exponential. It's the fact that year on year the numbers remain relatively the same and yet it's an "acceptable" figure for the authorities to ignore... I think we are at the stage now where most people agree Thailand is not honest about Covid cases but also it's not killing 1000s either, so why extension of restrictions ??
May 1, 20205 yr 5 minutes ago, cornishcarlos said: so why extension of restrictions ?? Good question. I think things will open up a lot in May. Richard Barrow already reporting that alcohol will be back on sale on Sunday. Some restaurants opening soon too. If the numbers are still this low on June 1st and the Restrictions are still this strong then I think almost everybody will be critical of the government. Road deaths are a separate issue, government should do much more.
May 1, 20205 yr 1 hour ago, steelepulse said: A flu has an IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) adjusted to take into account asymptomatic people of .04% Various studies around the world put covid IFR at between .12% and 1% With those numbers, there won't be doubling every 4 days and in fact, everyone would get herd immunity. Partial herd immunity will be reached but there is no scientific evidence supporting that full herd immunity will be reached at this stage. Early small investigations show that younger people develop low levels of anti bodies which may not lead to immunity. A vaccine, when it comes, will be effective. We'll have to wait for evidence on this one
May 1, 20205 yr I hear things like we must wait for the vaccine. When the vaccine is available. When everyone has had the vaccine. Because, We don't know if we will have heard immunity before that. People may not have enough antibodies to protect from getting the virus again. But we need to also remember that it is not when we have a vaccine, it is if they develop an effective vaccine. There is no guarantee of a vaccine either. I personally think they will but we will have to wait for that also.
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