23 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

So for the next 2 years New Zealanders have a choice of China, Thailand or stay home.

 

And it will end the same way the annual flu epidemics end, SARS ended, neighbourhood chicken pox outbreaks end - when enough people are either naturally immune or changed their personal behaviours to avoid catching it.

 

Lockdowns, curfews, travel bans are just economic self abuse.

 

I understand that people for fell for the media fear campaign find it difficult to accept - so keep recycling the 'spin' - but every day more and more people are realising that the global response to COVID-19 was a huge error of judgement.

 

I was saying this in January, and getting abused on-line for saying it - at least now I have a few friends. ????

Actually New Zealand plans Australia as its first partner.

 

Sars mysteriously disappeared, will covid do the same, who knows, its a gamble to say it would, should we just hope that would be the case? In then meantime just change our personal behaviours in the assumption it will go away? Maybe, but who is going to drive that worldwide as a model of best practice based on just maybe because Sars did?

 

To reach natural immunity or herd immunity worldwide you already know this would virtually be impossible unless we deliberately infect countries that have had minimal outbreaks or have been successful in other methods of controlling the virus but then that also does not fit in with your assumption that it will just go away either.

 

Agreed, lockdowns, travel bans are economic ruin when done in panic mode and for such lengthy periods but the alternatives are what, the above maybe ^^ again?

 

Agreed again the global response was a huge error in judgement in many ways by many countries apart from a select few.

 

I'm with you on many points and thoughts but where does that leave us? A vaccine is the best hope for this as soon as possible in my opinion, it may not be 100% but any degree of protection will do and should provide the herd immunity needed.

 

When this is over then firmer more coordinated responses need to be activated based on best practice experience for future pandemics.

4 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

That's one hypothesis. However, as we both know, Thailand is at the lower end of the scale in terms of antibody testing.

Thailand is one of the few Asian countries that has had mass BCG vaccination. The correlation between BCG immunization, and reduced or nil  coronavirus symptoms, is currently the subject of a clinical trial with frontline health workers in Australia.

Yes - although UK had a vaccination campaign too.

 

But UK does have a large vulnerable population of elderly, sick people just waiting for the next cause of pneumonia to send them on their way.

 

Much of the Western World does have a high percentage of unhealthy people.

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

But then there would be other signs - over-flowing hospitals, social media posts.

 

My GF's village has a normal death rate among the elderly - people in their 80's and 90's.

One day I will see a Thai without a smartphone, it will be like a sighting of a unicorn. Thai social connection being what it is, a coronavirus outbreak here would send Facebook into meltdown.

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Oh no it wasn't:

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

 

Read it all. In the QT Box they also say:

 

Quick Takes

• The median incubation period from infection with SARS-CoV-2 to onset of symptoms is approximately 5 days.
• 97.5% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 will exhibit symptoms by 11.5 days.
• Monitoring people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 for 14 days for development of symptoms should be sufficient to identify 99% of cases or more.

 

 

And this is what you said (post 95):

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days.

---

By missing the word median you are giving the wrong impression. Or trying to.

Better just to say the incubation period can be up to 14 days. Innit?

3 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Yes - although UK had a vaccination campaign too.

 

But UK does have a large vulnerable population of elderly, sick people just waiting for the next cause of pneumonia to send them on their way.

 

Much of the Western World does have a high percentage of unhealthy people.

We can see that.

12 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

But then there would be other signs - over-flowing hospitals, social media posts.

 

Not really, countries can have Covid19 pandemics without overflowing hospitals. This was the case in Germany.

 

In Thailand, the disease could be taken to be pneumonia or something else.

 

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Sars mysteriously disappeared

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

3 minutes ago, chessman said:

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

Yes I've just quickly read an article on that and Sars also had very severe symptoms that everybody got and so contact tracing and quarantine was very effective in stopping the spread.

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

Well, he can't always be right, he's not German.

Refresh my memory please - was it not the Germans who tried to fight a war on two fronts? Or, more recently, fiddled diesel emission software to get the right result? Looks like you guys can't always be right either.

2 hours ago, chessman said:

SARS disappearance wasn’t that mysterious. It was due to public health initiatives. As more was discovered about it, scientists learned that it only really became infectious when the symptoms became stronger. When that was known it became possible to isolate possible carriers and stop It completely.
 

it’s a success story for public health bodies, government cooperation and rational scientific thinking. The same things we need to be putting our faith in now.

 

Who knows what damage SARS could have done 100 years ago.

 

 

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

That's exactly right, SARS disappeared because the virus lost part of its genome related to transmission.

 

Scientists have discovered a unique mutation to coronavirus in Arizona - and it's a pattern that they've seen before. One of the 382 samples they collected from coronavirus patients in the state was missing a sizeable segment of genetic material. In the middle and late stages of the SARS epidemic of 2003, this very same kind of deletion started cropping up in patients around the globe. It's not just any mutation - the change robs the closely related viruses of one of their weapons against the host's immune response, making the infection weaker. As that mutation became widespread, the SARS outbreak wound down. By July - five months after it emerged in Asia in February 23 - there were no new cases, and the outbreak was considered contained. 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8286181/Coronavirus-mutation-one-sample-signal-getting-weaker.html

A communist regime performed a lockdown, because they could do things like weld people's doors shut. They knew it would work. 

 

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

The almost inexplicable part was the people, many of you, fell for it all and went with it even more so than any of these leaders could have ever possibly imagined. Lockdowns were popular!

 

When we reached that point, the politicians who pander to the people started speaking and saying idiotic things. Doctors who said common sense things were censored. And, this today is where it has all led us.

 

Have a look at Thailand. May be one of the best example in the world. Borders closed, tourism and economy in ruins. Spiking homeless populations. And for what? About 3 days worth os Songkran road deaths. 

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

 

 

When did that rule start?

 

8 minutes ago, utalkin2me said:

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

There's a wingnut conspiracy theory circulating that Italy implemented a different flu vaccine this year and that's what contributed to their high Covid death rate.  I don't even claim to know if they actually did implement a different vaccine, much less agree or disagree with that theory.  I heard it in an interview with Judy Mikovits, so that would be a good place to start if you wanted to climb down your own rabbit hole.

 

7 hours ago, impulse said:

 

There's a wingnut conspiracy theory circulating that Italy implemented a different flu vaccine this year and that's what contributed to their high Covid death rate.  I don't even claim to know if they actually did implement a different vaccine, much less agree or disagree with that theory.  I heard it in an interview with Judy Mikovits, so that would be a good place to start if you wanted to climb down your own rabbit hole.

 

No mystery about Italy - high proportion of old, obese people means any epidemic will take it's toll.  Happens in Italy every time there's a bad flu epidemic too .  

7 hours ago, impulse said:

 

 

When did that rule start?

 

Not a rule, just a comment on the 'it would be all over social media' notion.

 

If a Thai family thinks their grandfather died of heart attack, stroke, pneumonia, they would not say he died of Covid19 all over social media. They would not know themselves.

17 hours ago, Logosone said:

Why don't you name those countries then where lockdowns have been a success?

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

People can't comment on what they don't know about.

An yet this entire thread is just that.

7 hours ago, utalkin2me said:

 

 

Italy happened, which is still a bit of a mystery in my opinion. Whatever happened in Italy made this damn <deleted> show into the abomination it is today. What that abomination was is all the countries looked at Italy and China, they listened to Neils "the man who <deleted> the world" Ferguson and that was that.

 

The almost inexplicable part was the people, many of you, fell for it all and went with it even more so than any of these leaders could have ever possibly imagined. Lockdowns were popular!

 

When we reached that point, the politicians who pander to the people started speaking and saying idiotic things. Doctors who said common sense things were censored. And, this today is where it has all led us.

 

Have a look at Thailand. May be one of the best example in the world. Borders closed, tourism and economy in ruins. Spiking homeless populations. And for what? About 3 days worth os Songkran road deaths. 

It's true. Italy made Ferguson change his paper, he realised it was wrong as he saw the figures in Italy.

 

Italy demonstrated already that hard lockdowns, and Italy's was the hardest of all lockdowns, were not able to stop the pandemic. Only with mass testing were they able to stem the pandemic, or possible it was the inherent dynamic of the virus. Either way, Italy did all that China, the UK, did, but they could not stop the virus. 

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

Everywhere Lock down was properly implemented.

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

14 hours ago, Logosone said:

Oh no it wasn't:

 

"The incubation period between infection and onset of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 is approximately 5 days."

 

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease

Another example of  taking a statement out of context and manipulating it to fit an agenda.

 

The key word is MEDIAN. Do you know what MEDIAN means? Introductory Stats 121 - The median value is fixed by its position and is not reflected by the individual value.

 

The authors estimated the median incubation period to be 5.1 days (95% confidence interval, 4.5-5.8 days); 97.5% of people who were infected exhibited symptoms by 11.5 days (95% confidence interval, 8.2-15.6 days). 

 

There was a range of 4 days to 15.6 days in the study of 186 patients who had traveled to Wuhan. This was self reporting. 

 

Isolation / Incubation periods for infectious respiratory diseases, especially those with unknown characteristics,  are NOT determined by an incubation period. The presence of 

asymptomatic individuals must be accounted for.  

 

However, most annoying is the fact that you did not read the actual study. Perhaps it is too difficult for you to comprehend, but the  study offers the following;

- Publicly reported cases may over represent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.

- Among those who are infected and will develop symptoms, we expect 101 in 10 000 (99th percentile, 482) will do so after the end of a 14-day monitoring period (Table 2 and Figure 3), and our analyses do not preclude this estimate from being higher

 

The above means that patients may show symptoms after 14 days. Your use of the 5 days period, presents  a completely different picture. It is misleading and dishonest.

 

 

 

 

11 hours ago, Kinnock said:

I was in Hong Kong and Taiwan during SARS working on public health - and there's no way the health measures defeated SARS.

 

It faded out - probably due to a mutation to a less deadly form plus growing natural immunity. 

So you think all the measures Hong Kong put in place weren’t effective? What kind of public health job did you have?
 

Growing natural immunity? from a virus with a mortality rate of 10%? You wrote in a previous thread that Hong Kong achieved herd immunity with SARS. You are completely wrong about this
 

It was research that showed that SARS only became infectious quite late (different to COVID). This meant that public health interventions were really effective. 

3 hours ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

48 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

There was no mass testing in Taiwan.

Canada  went through  a lockdown. In the provinces and regions where the pandemic is under control and where cases are no longer being recorded, there was a strict lockdown and a travel ban on outsiders. Their testing is not as extensive in the two hardest hit provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The rest of Canada is now opening up. Ontario and Quebec have the highest rates of testing. Quebec province has tested more people per capita than the USA, Germany, France, Italy, and yet it has almost 1/2 of Canada's cases.

It also has a mortality rate of 8.5%.

 

So much for your claim of testing dependence.

 

Taiwan, excellent example of how to flatten the curve and control the virus, WHO should highlight this more but politics are in the way of this. They had contingency lockdown plans well rehearsed as well should it have gotten out of hand. However they were quick enough in their actions to not need them.

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

Wrong.

 

Failure in Italy, failure in the UK, failure in Spain.

 

Failure everywhere, unless mass testing was implemented.

Think of the greater failure - at least in terms of nations not protecting citizens - if nothing had been done. As far as the world is concerned, the main failure was by the Chinese, who allowed travel out of China when they should have stopped it but when, at the same time, they imposed lockdowns domestically! After that, the virus spread continued largely unnoticed for up to another month, due to the lag until manifestation and before people started dying by the hundreds, especially in Italy and Iran.  

6 hours ago, chessman said:

So you think all the measures Hong Kong put in place weren’t effective? What kind of public health job did you have?
 

Growing natural immunity? from a virus with a mortality rate of 10%? You wrote in a previous thread that Hong Kong achieved herd immunity with SARS. You are completely wrong about this
 

It was research that showed that SARS only became infectious quite late (different to COVID). This meant that public health interventions were really effective. 

What I saw in HK was less than most countries are doing now, but that's not important anyway as it faded out everywhere, so Hong Kong procedures are irrelevant.

 

Too many Google virologists and born again epidemiologists is one one of the core issues with the current epidemic too.  The official 'experts' have created economic havoc based on incorrect data, and scared people have allowed them to lead everyone over the cliff.

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

 

The writer himself came to this conclusion:

 

‘My own read of the evidence is that government restrictions make a difference — but that voluntary social distancing rooted in fear of the virus does a lot of the work too. Which isn’t that surprising when you think about it, because, at least in democratic countries, it’s very hard to lock down unless the public wants to. By the time U.S. states told everyone to stay home, their restaurant traffic (as measured by OpenTable) had already fallen by more than half’

 

which makes a lot of sense to me.
 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/05/did-the-lockdowns-work/

 

 

 

56 minutes ago, chessman said:

This national review writer has collected all the studies about the effectiveness of lockdowns he could find. The JP Morgan one is included in the section ‘lockdowns didn’t work’ but the majority of the studies have been classified in the ‘lockdowns work’ section.

Great find this probably deserves its own thread, more than enough to be getting on with for those with time and into some heavy reading. I've not gone into any yet but certainly will be venturing down the rabbit hole. I hope with enough reference material now some posters will have a more open mind on the +/- of the differing approaches. 

 

Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

7 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Is the National Review some sort of right wing American political site?

It contains the JP Morgan report to financial investors, your go to study on lockdowns so what do you think? ????