Will Chinese tourists be impoverished post COVID era ?

[thairookie]

Now that the big countries have all taken up their cudgels against China, I doubt Chinese tourists will be as affluent as the pre-COVID era.  With a lot of factories struggling to regain production in China, will we see less Chinese tourists or even no Chinese tourists  when the Thailand reopens its border ?

 

A lot of businesses were created just to serve the Chinese tourists.  You could see loads of mini emporiums pretending to be pharmacies sprouting near all the major hotels in Pattaya, and these businesses are still waiting for the Chinese tourists to return.  They are still reluctant face the truth even though RMB has been going south.

[moontang]

New car sales in China were up in April, yoy, but just about everyone is going to be tighter with their money for a while.  Large swathes of the tourist industry are made for Chinese tour groups.  The Chinese are aware of a deserved rise in anti-china sentiment, otoh that might be more of a reason for them to choose Thailand over the likes of NY and London.  The trade war will help SEA more than it will hurt China, but it is just another part of global belt tightening.  The operational abilities and finances of the airlines might be more of a factor determining how many million Chinese tourists come, but again, that affects most, and since it is so much closer than NA or Europe, that would support more of them coming, here.

[Kerryd]

China will laugh at anyone pretending to "take up cudgels" against them just like they laughed at, then imposed tariffs against, Australia for suggesting an investigation into the origin of the covid virus. (Notice how that story has apparently been shuffled to the back burner for the last couple of weeks now.)

Most of China wasn't overly affected by the virus and you don't hear stories about destitute Chinese lining up for handouts in the streets there. I think you'll find that most of their industry has been cooking along much as it did before, except the areas hardest hit by the virus but even then, places like Wuhan are apparently pretty much back to normal. Just no "wet markets" anymore.
(Makes me wonder what they'll try to blame next time as I doubt they'd be able to use the same story twice in a row.)

Just like most of Thailand, less the Tourism and Hospitality industries, has kept working throughout the crisis.

And considering how many Chinese there are, I don't think they'll have any problem filling plane loads of them to go to whichever countries open their skies to them. 
And I have no doubt believing that any country that says "no" to allowing Chinese tourists will face reprisals of some kind.

China only cares what other countries think if the Communist Party thinks the Chinese people might realize that the Party isn't the "all mighty, all knowing, benevolent protectors of the people" that they've been brainwashed to believe. 
Like with this crisis and how, very early one, when the first Chinese doctor went public about the virus, the Chinese arrested and detained him to shut him up (he later died from the virus).
Like how they used their state controlled media (print, radio and television) to spread the rumour that the virus was created by the American Army and smuggled into Wuhan. 
Like how they threatened Australia (amongst others) for suggestion there should be an investigation into the origins of the virus.

Anything to deflect attention, and blame, away from themselves.

The Communists know very well what will happen to them if the people stop believing them and decide they want a change. After all, it's the same thing they did when they first took power after WW II. 
Did you know that during the Tienanmen Square crisis, the Chinese didn't use troops from the local garrisons. They specifically brought in troops from other parts of the country so that when they ordered them to open fire on the demonstrators they wouldn't hesitate as there'd be little chance they'd have any family members in the crowd. 
(You can bet the tank driver that didn't run over that guy with the shopping bags probably didn't have a long career, or life, after that incident.)

The only thing that would cause a drastic drop in the number of Chinese tourists would be if there were suddenly more virus outbreaks in the places they travel to. That is about the only reason anyone would be able to use to restrict them.

China is realizing it has the clout to do pretty much anything it wants now and no one is going to stand up to them in any serious way. They've started "flexing" that clout in the South China Sea, along the border with India, against their Muslim populations in Western China as well as flexing their economic muscle in various regions of the world like Africa. 
Even Cambodia was recently forced to come out (again) and state that the navy base at Ream isn't"exclusively" for the Chinese Navy to use. (Last July reports came out that the Chinese had made a secret deal with Cambodia regarding leasing a large part of the Ream naval base on a 30 year deal.)
There are also reports that a "commericial" airfield the Chinese built at Koh Kong is actually meant to be an airbase. (Coincidentally, it seems a Chinese drone recently crashed near that very same airfield.) It seems the "deceptively" long runway has roused suspicions about the true intentions of the airfield.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188558/cambodias-koh-kong-project-chinese-tourists-or-chinas-military
https://asiatimes.com/2019/07/cambodia-china-ink-secret-naval-port-deal-report/
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50729306/cambodian-naval-bases-are-not-exclusive-to-china-says-premier-hun-sen/

(I won't bother getting into how the Chinese use "development" aid to build/buy and control infrastructure projects like dams, toll highways, high speed trains and other stuff in other countries.)

Suffice to say, I don't think there'll be any shortage in the number of Chinese tourists plugging up the airports  - once they start letting them in again.

[Guderian]

I doubt it.

Firstly, I don't think China's economy shut down to anything like the extent that those in Europe and America did, as they were willing to impose total isolation on hotspots like Wuhan so that the rest of the country was protected. A month ago, China's economy was already running at around 90% of capacity, according to The Economist. The western democracies felt they could not get away with such extreme measures, and so they had to impose a shutdown across the entire country, which was much more painful for the many compared with China, if far less painful for the few who might have been isolated in the western versions of Wuhan.

The second point is that, as in Thailand, it's the poorer part of the population that will have suffered the most and they are not the ones taking foreign holidays. I suspect that to many Chinese, the virus won't have made too much difference to their wealth so far, though western retaliation as well as western economic shrinkage as a result of C19 may well impoverish the Chinese far more than the virus ever did. Still, if they can manage to get GDP growth back up to 7% again they will be over the damage in no time.

All in all, I suspect that it's western tourists who will be worse off when the dust has settled, especially the younger ones who may lose their jobs and are going to be left paying off the cost of the crisis for many decades.

[Mavideol]

China's golden goose it's gone, some relatives, we have there,  have been complaining about lost of purchasing power, hard times ahead like everybody else

[Traubert]

2 hours ago, Kerryd said:

China will laugh at anyone pretending to "take up cudgels" against them just like they laughed at, then imposed tariffs against, Australia for suggesting an investigation into the origin of the covid virus. (Notice how that story has apparently been shuffled to the back burner for the last couple of weeks now.)

Most of China wasn't overly affected by the virus and you don't hear stories about destitute Chinese lining up for handouts in the streets there. I think you'll find that most of their industry has been cooking along much as it did before, except the areas hardest hit by the virus but even then, places like Wuhan are apparently pretty much back to normal. Just no "wet markets" anymore.
(Makes me wonder what they'll try to blame next time as I doubt they'd be able to use the same story twice in a row.)

Just like most of Thailand, less the Tourism and Hospitality industries, has kept working throughout the crisis.

And considering how many Chinese there are, I don't think they'll have any problem filling plane loads of them to go to whichever countries open their skies to them. 
And I have no doubt believing that any country that says "no" to allowing Chinese tourists will face reprisals of some kind.

China only cares what other countries think if the Communist Party thinks the Chinese people might realize that the Party isn't the "all mighty, all knowing, benevolent protectors of the people" that they've been brainwashed to believe. 
Like with this crisis and how, very early one, when the first Chinese doctor went public about the virus, the Chinese arrested and detained him to shut him up (he later died from the virus).
Like how they used their state controlled media (print, radio and television) to spread the rumour that the virus was created by the American Army and smuggled into Wuhan. 
Like how they threatened Australia (amongst others) for suggestion there should be an investigation into the origins of the virus.

Anything to deflect attention, and blame, away from themselves.

The Communists know very well what will happen to them if the people stop believing them and decide they want a change. After all, it's the same thing they did when they first took power after WW II. 
Did you know that during the Tienanmen Square crisis, the Chinese didn't use troops from the local garrisons. They specifically brought in troops from other parts of the country so that when they ordered them to open fire on the demonstrators they wouldn't hesitate as there'd be little chance they'd have any family members in the crowd. 
(You can bet the tank driver that didn't run over that guy with the shopping bags probably didn't have a long career, or life, after that incident.)

The only thing that would cause a drastic drop in the number of Chinese tourists would be if there were suddenly more virus outbreaks in the places they travel to. That is about the only reason anyone would be able to use to restrict them.

China is realizing it has the clout to do pretty much anything it wants now and no one is going to stand up to them in any serious way. They've started "flexing" that clout in the South China Sea, along the border with India, against their Muslim populations in Western China as well as flexing their economic muscle in various regions of the world like Africa. 
Even Cambodia was recently forced to come out (again) and state that the navy base at Ream isn't"exclusively" for the Chinese Navy to use. (Last July reports came out that the Chinese had made a secret deal with Cambodia regarding leasing a large part of the Ream naval base on a 30 year deal.)
There are also reports that a "commericial" airfield the Chinese built at Koh Kong is actually meant to be an airbase. (Coincidentally, it seems a Chinese drone recently crashed near that very same airfield.) It seems the "deceptively" long runway has roused suspicions about the true intentions of the airfield.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188558/cambodias-koh-kong-project-chinese-tourists-or-chinas-military
https://asiatimes.com/2019/07/cambodia-china-ink-secret-naval-port-deal-report/
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50729306/cambodian-naval-bases-are-not-exclusive-to-china-says-premier-hun-sen/

(I won't bother getting into how the Chinese use "development" aid to build/buy and control infrastructure projects like dams, toll highways, high speed trains and other stuff in other countries.)

Suffice to say, I don't think there'll be any shortage in the number of Chinese tourists plugging up the airports  - once they start letting them in again.

Quite the Chinese expert........

[Kerryd]

For most of us, it won't really matter a lot how many Chinese tourists start coming (or don't) as it won't really affect most TV members. It's not like they're competing for your favourite bar stool at the "local" on your soi. It's not like they're putting the squeeze on your favourite bar girl or trying to cut in front of you at the Som Tam vendor's cart.

It will make the people at TAT happy and many of those "made for Chinese" tourist venues they mention if they start arriving in droves. The owners of some businesses will start making some money again which means their staff will start getting salaries again and that's about it.

For the rest of us, we may start seeing more tour buses around but again, it probably will have little to no effect for most of us.
 

20 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Quite the Chinese expert........

You mean as in someone who started studying Communist countries and their armaments as a young soldier back in the early 80s ? Who had the opportunity to become an Intelligence Officer but turned it down because he didn't think there'd be many opportunities for advancement and didn't want to spend the rest of his career sitting in tiny office looking at slides or radio intercepts (and, truthfully, didn't want to have to go back to school for another 4+ years) ? Someone who was about to submit a resume for an analyst position just today, but decided not to because they are looking for someone with a narcotics background, not a military background ?

Definitely no expert ! Not me !
These days I do it as a hobby. Jane's still sends me a half dozen newsletters a week. I'll browse the topics but unless something catches my eye I usually delete most of them these days.
The post I made previously was quite a bit larger as I had started getting into China's "development" programs in different countries (not just SE Asia) but I realized it was stuff most people wouldn't give a cr@p about anyways so I'd be wasting my time. (Kind if like I'm doing now.)

(I actually used to follow China a lot. Even started studying Mandarin and Northern Shaolin Kung <deleted> in the late 80s and again in the late 90s. Gave it up when I went to Afghanistan in 2003 though. After 10 years in that place I decided to take a break and here I am, chilling in Thailand and wasting time on ThaiVisa !)

 

[metisdead]

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[gearbox]

"Now that the big countries have all taken up their cudgels against China, I doubt Chinese tourists will be as affluent as the pre-COVID era."

 

As far as I'm aware the anti-Chinese sentiment has been fuelled only in the 5 eyes countries. Most of the countries don't try to lay blame on any country.

Whether the Chinese are going to get poorer, quite likely. If their customers don't buy what they produce, less money would be flowing in. In regards to Thailand however, I won't be surprised if wealthier Chinese are coming in. China is an authoritarian regime and looks like they'll shut the tourist traffic to Australia, US and UK for political reasons, and these countries were getting far wealthier Chinese tourists. They may decide to come to Thailand now - closer,cheaper, and safer in regards to covid19.

[Leaver]

China will adopt the 2 Countries 1 Rule policy. 

 

The 2 countries are China and Thailand, and the 1 Rule is CHINA.  ???? 

 

Chan O Cha = Hun Sen = CHINA.

 

 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Leaver

[bert bloggs]

I hope and pray they dont come back ,its great being able to drive down streets not clogged up by buses ,or walk down the street without being pushed out of the way by them.

[moontang]

Not if, but when...the writing is on the wall.  The Indian resurgence will be slower, but that has more to do with the timing of C19.  I think you will also see the transformation of KSR to majority Chinese tourists.  Land values are too high to cater to backpackers around there, they need the big foot traffic numbers.  

[Mavideol]

3 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

I hope and pray they dont come back ,its great being able to drive down streets not clogged up by buses ,or walk down the street without being pushed out of the way by them.

or/and spitted on

[Deli]

I wish they all would be too broke to travel or countries would ban them from entering, for a decade. Both won't happen and they will unfortunately be araound soon again. And most likely they will be the 1st foreigners after the lockdown to be allowed in, walking on a red carpet.

[Mikeasq60]

On 6/6/2020 at 11:57 AM, moontang said:

New car sales in China were up in April, yoy, but just about everyone is going to be tighter with their money for a while.  Large swathes of the tourist industry are made for Chinese tour groups.  The Chinese are aware of a deserved rise in anti-china sentiment, otoh that might be more of a reason for them to choose Thailand over the likes of NY and London.  The trade war will help SEA more than it will hurt China, but it is just another part of global belt tightening.  The operational abilities and finances of the airlines might be more of a factor determining how many million Chinese tourists come, but again, that affects most, and since it is so much closer than NA or Europe, that would support more of them coming, here.

Why didnt China just play nice and everyone would be happy, happy but noooo!

[ExpatOilWorker]

They will come back in the millions.

The hotel industry wants to fill rooms, travel agents wants businesses and the Thai goverment is already in bed with China. 

If they can get the standard "30 days visa exempt on arrival" the floodgate will truly open up.

[Max69xl]

Poor Chinese are not the ones travelling around the world and Thailand is not an expensive place for Chinese tourists with money. 

[balo]

We can always dream, but as long as the world buy 90% of the electronics from China , there will be lots of Chinese travellers. They can afford it.

[MadMuhammad]

19 hours ago, Mavideol said:

or/and spitted on

Gee you lot carry on. I’ve never, and I know of no one, that had ever been spat on by a Chinese tour group. 

[transam]

Just now, MadMuhammad said:

Gee you lot carry on. I’ve never, and I know of no one, that had ever been spat on by a Chinese tour group. 

You mingle with Chinese tourists on a daily basis..?

I have read and seen photos of Chinese having a dump in public places, which to me is worse....

[jacko45k]

5 minutes ago, MadMuhammad said:

Gee you lot carry on. I’ve never, and I know of no one, that had ever been spat on by a Chinese tour group. 

They do have a habit of hawking and spitting, they have to impose fines in Singapore. 

[Olmate]

13 hours ago, Max69xl said:

Poor Chinese are not the ones travelling around the world and Thailand is not an expensive place for Chinese tourists with money. 

Seems like Australia is off the books for Chinese tourists in future!

[Kerryd]

19 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Seems like Australia is off the books for Chinese tourists in future!

I'm sure it has nothing to do with China being upset at Australia for having the balls to call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

The Chinese are really upset at the idea that people might think they were responsible for it, even if it turned out (miraculously) that it was a "freak" accident that happened in a wet market (a theory that even the Chinese aren't promoting anymore).

It's almost like they're scared that someone might be able to prove that the virus did indeed come from one of the many labs they had in the area that were studying and experimenting with the exact same kinds of viruses.

China has also slapped large tariffs on a number of Australian exports like barley and iron ore as well as suspended imports of Australian beef from 4 producers in response to Australia's call for an investigation and is at odds with the US for the same reasons (amongst many others of course).

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/06/asia-pacific/china-citizens-shun-australia/#.Xt2bLTozaHs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-07/australia-china-racism-coronavirus-how-did-relationship-get-here/12330250
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/19/chinese-embassy-says-australian-claims-of-vindication-on-coronavirus-investigation-are-a-joke

[Leaver]

On 6/8/2020 at 2:04 AM, Kerryd said:

It's almost like they're scared that someone might be able to prove that the virus did indeed come from one of the many labs they had in the area that were studying and experimenting with the exact same kinds of viruses.

In the wash up of all of this, I have no doubt the global public will be lied to, again.  

 

Perhaps this virus was one of Saddam's missing Weapons Of Mass Destruction.  ????

[drbeach]

On 6/6/2020 at 3:32 PM, Kerryd said:

China will laugh at anyone pretending to "take up cudgels" against them just like they laughed at, then imposed tariffs against, Australia for suggesting an investigation into the origin of the covid virus. (Notice how that story has apparently been shuffled to the back burner for the last couple of weeks now.)

Most of China wasn't overly affected by the virus and you don't hear stories about destitute Chinese lining up for handouts in the streets there. I think you'll find that most of their industry has been cooking along much as it did before, except the areas hardest hit by the virus but even then, places like Wuhan are apparently pretty much back to normal. Just no "wet markets" anymore.
(Makes me wonder what they'll try to blame next time as I doubt they'd be able to use the same story twice in a row.)

Just like most of Thailand, less the Tourism and Hospitality industries, has kept working throughout the crisis.

And considering how many Chinese there are, I don't think they'll have any problem filling plane loads of them to go to whichever countries open their skies to them. 
And I have no doubt believing that any country that says "no" to allowing Chinese tourists will face reprisals of some kind.

China only cares what other countries think if the Communist Party thinks the Chinese people might realize that the Party isn't the "all mighty, all knowing, benevolent protectors of the people" that they've been brainwashed to believe. 
Like with this crisis and how, very early one, when the first Chinese doctor went public about the virus, the Chinese arrested and detained him to shut him up (he later died from the virus).
Like how they used their state controlled media (print, radio and television) to spread the rumour that the virus was created by the American Army and smuggled into Wuhan. 
Like how they threatened Australia (amongst others) for suggestion there should be an investigation into the origins of the virus.

Anything to deflect attention, and blame, away from themselves.

The Communists know very well what will happen to them if the people stop believing them and decide they want a change. After all, it's the same thing they did when they first took power after WW II. 
Did you know that during the Tienanmen Square crisis, the Chinese didn't use troops from the local garrisons. They specifically brought in troops from other parts of the country so that when they ordered them to open fire on the demonstrators they wouldn't hesitate as there'd be little chance they'd have any family members in the crowd. 
(You can bet the tank driver that didn't run over that guy with the shopping bags probably didn't have a long career, or life, after that incident.)

The only thing that would cause a drastic drop in the number of Chinese tourists would be if there were suddenly more virus outbreaks in the places they travel to. That is about the only reason anyone would be able to use to restrict them.

China is realizing it has the clout to do pretty much anything it wants now and no one is going to stand up to them in any serious way. They've started "flexing" that clout in the South China Sea, along the border with India, against their Muslim populations in Western China as well as flexing their economic muscle in various regions of the world like Africa. 
Even Cambodia was recently forced to come out (again) and state that the navy base at Ream isn't"exclusively" for the Chinese Navy to use. (Last July reports came out that the Chinese had made a secret deal with Cambodia regarding leasing a large part of the Ream naval base on a 30 year deal.)
There are also reports that a "commericial" airfield the Chinese built at Koh Kong is actually meant to be an airbase. (Coincidentally, it seems a Chinese drone recently crashed near that very same airfield.) It seems the "deceptively" long runway has roused suspicions about the true intentions of the airfield.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188558/cambodias-koh-kong-project-chinese-tourists-or-chinas-military
https://asiatimes.com/2019/07/cambodia-china-ink-secret-naval-port-deal-report/
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50729306/cambodian-naval-bases-are-not-exclusive-to-china-says-premier-hun-sen/

(I won't bother getting into how the Chinese use "development" aid to build/buy and control infrastructure projects like dams, toll highways, high speed trains and other stuff in other countries.)

Suffice to say, I don't think there'll be any shortage in the number of Chinese tourists plugging up the airports  - once they start letting them in again.

Many Chinese have struggled, maybe we're not hearing about these stories because we're not looking them, being based in Thailand.

 

My Chinese business partners are not doing too well this year. They're not struggling, but going on overseas holidays is not part of the agenda this year, even if they were allowed to leave.

[thairookie]

19 hours ago, drbeach said:

Many Chinese have struggled, maybe we're not hearing about these stories because we're not looking them, being based in Thailand.

 

My Chinese business partners are not doing too well this year. They're not struggling, but going on overseas holidays is not part of the agenda this year, even if they were allowed to leave.

US companies are under pressure to move their production lines out of China.  Japan is offering Japanese companies in China incentives to move out of China.  These are 2 of the biggest economies in the world, and they are definitely not the last ones.  Vietnam is touted as the main beneficiary of this fallout.

 

I expect China to get poorer, and however much O Cha Cha wants the Chinese tour groups to fill the hotels and streets of Bangkok and Pattaya, the fallout between China and the rest of the world will definitely impact the ability to their citizens to return to the days of globetrotting.

 

 

 

[newnative]

49 minutes ago, thairookie said:

US companies are under pressure to move their production lines out of China.  Japan is offering Japanese companies in China incentives to move out of China.  These are 2 of the biggest economies in the world, and they are definitely not the last ones.  Vietnam is touted as the main beneficiary of this fallout.

 

I expect China to get poorer, and however much O Cha Cha wants the Chinese tour groups to fill the hotels and streets of Bangkok and Pattaya, the fallout between China and the rest of the world will definitely impact the ability to their citizens to return to the days of globetrotting.

 

 

 

       Some Chinese may get poorer but not all and you've got 1.4 billion of them a relatively short plane ride away.  So far, only about 10% of them have passports--a vast tourist market still in its infancy.  Once the virus is tamed and travel is allowed, there's no reason the Chinese won't be back in large numbers.  It's likely some might choose a closer travel destination like Thailand with a shorter plane ride over longer plane trips elsewhere, at least initially.  My next travel destination outside of Thailand will also likely be somewhere I want to visit and reachable by a relatively short hop. 

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, thairookie said:

I expect China to get poorer, and however much O Cha Cha wants the Chinese tour groups to fill the hotels and streets of Bangkok and Pattaya, the fallout between China and the rest of the world will definitely impact the ability to their citizens to return to the days of globetrotting.

This is where the Pattaya / Thailand tourism industry is not well positioned.  Too cheap and nasty for the very wealthy Chinese, and too expensive for the Chinese factory workers, who will soon have some employment / income instability.