Falling economy has bottomed out, says BOT

[rooster59]

Falling economy has bottomed out, says BOT

By The Nation

 

Don Nakornthab, a BOT senior director

 

The falling economy has bottomed out, but unemployment remains a serious concern, said the Bank of Thailand (BOT) today.

 

 

Don Nakornthab, a BOT senior director, said five economic engines – consumption, private investment, exports, imports, and manufacturing – showed signs of improvement in June although all remained in negative growth territory.

 

These indicators suggested the economy had bottomed out and, if the recovery continue, the central bank may revise upward its GDP projection, he said. The BOT’s current 2002 GDP projection is for a contraction of 8.1 per cent.

 

He predicted that GDP in the second quarter (April to June) may contract in a range of 12 to 13 per cent, close to the historic plunge of 12.5 per cent in the second quarter of 1998 during the Asian financial crisis.

 

Easing of lockdown restrictions contributed to the economic improvement in June, he said.

 

However, if a second wave of Covid-19 infection occurs and leads to another big lockdown, economic recovery would be further disrupted, he pointed out.

Despite some improvement last month, the economy remains deep in negative territory, with unemployment the biggest concern, he warned. The number of workers applying for unemployment benefits has been rising. Some observers estimate it could rise to 5 million, or about 10 per cent of the total workforce, said Don.

 

Separately, Supachai Panitchpakdi, former director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), said the Thai and Asean economy are expected to recover by the end of this year, but trade may still contract. Trade in food, communication and medical equipment may recover first, said Supachai, who is also a former secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Risk of declining trade would persist for the next one or two years, he added.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30392246

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-08-01

 

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[Wiggy]

11 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

However, if a second wave of Covid-19 infection occurs and leads to another big lockdown, economic recovery would be further disrupted, he pointed out.

Genius. 

[CorpusChristie]

18 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

he BOT’s current 2002 GDP projection is for a contraction of 8.1 per cent.

2020 ?

[BritManToo]

35 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

Easing of lockdown restrictions contributed to the economic improvement in June, he said.

International restrictions haven't changed, as far as I can see.

Let me predict a world of financial hurt this Autumn as people

1) discover their jobs are gone for good.

2) business surviving on loans and savings run out of money.

3) mass mortgage defaults start to happen, and people can't pay their rent.

4) mass defaults on personal/car loans.

 

Not just in Thailand, but all over the world.

 

In Thailand

Bank shares have reportedly fallen 6% in the last week.

Most banks expected up to 40 per cent non-performing loans (NPL).

Exports are down 25%

Tourism has effectively been wiped out.

Edited August 1, 2020 by BritManToo

[ezzra]

Sometime you get the feelings that the BOT and other government agencies are just release statements that doesn't really say much or state the obvious just so they can justify their existence and high positions and to show that they are still relevant which in most case they clearly aren't...

[trainman34014]

More BS; can't possibly have 'bottomed out' already.   They just have to keep saying 'positive things' in the hope that talking will make things right !

[PETERTHEEATER]

BOT.......Bottom Of Thailand?

[brain150]

The excuse for the BS lies is already there !!!

 

However, if a second wave of Covid-19 infection occurs and leads to another big lockdown, economic recovery would be further disrupted, he pointed out.

 

 

And this is why they NEED a second wave !

They can't cover up the economic failure much longer. Especially the collapse of the Financial System.

It is nearly a certainty that there will be a second wave - not because of some fake virus - but to justify everything that happens afterwards !!!

 

Socialism here we come - with lightning speed ! And it is the same all over the world !!!

The Chinese System is what every ruler wants - unlimited power for the Party - water and rice for the peasants !!!

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by brain150

[Chivas]

No idea exactly who the Thai Guy is in the OP but what I can say with certainty is that he's a complete roaster.....

[hotchilli]

9 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Falling economy has bottomed out, says BOT

Wait another 6 months and we'll see.

[phantomfiddler]

Nonsense, it is getting worse and will continue to decline well into next year, or until the powers that be stop trying to destroy Thailand,s tourist industry ????

[Skeptic7]

9 hours ago, ezzra said:

Sometime you get the feelings that the BOT and other government agencies are just release statements that doesn't really say much or state the obvious just so they can justify their existence and high positions and to show that they are still relevant which in most case they clearly aren't...

Sometime? 

[billd766]

Tell that to the 800 plus people at Triumph Swimwear today who went back to work to find the factory shut down a a list outside saying that they have all lost their jobs. Tell that to all the 100 or so staff at the local factory here in Klong Lan, rural Khampaeng Phet who lost their jobs when the factory closed in March.

 

Then rinse and repeat across the whole of rural Thailand.

 

Add to that the 300 golf caddies just fired in Chiang Mai.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1175706-get-out-now-300-caddies-told-to-leave-as-golf-concession-in-chiang-mai-ends/

 

Then you can leave your airconditioned office, get into your chauffeur driven airconditioned limo to take you to your airconditioned home, where you can stuff yourself with good food and expensive imported wines and congratulate yourself on another good days work, knowing that your salary will be in the bank and you still have a job.

 

Don't forget to pat yourself on the back for a good days work.

Edited August 1, 2020 by billd766
added extra text

[jackdd]

10 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The falling economy has bottomed out, but unemployment remains a serious concern, said the Bank of Thailand (BOT) today.

I wonder if they can take themself serious.

The real bottom comes next year, currently it's only the tip of the ice berg. Wait until the people used up their savings, loans go into default and so on. Consumption will drop significantly, which means more closures, more people without job, which means less consumption, rinse and repeat...

[Mac98]

   How about a 60,000,000,000 baht boost to the economy that costs the government nothing? Change one rule: delete the 800,000/400,000 baht requirement for retiree extensions. 

   All that money now locked up could flow into the economy, from cars to bars, maybe help with a condo purchase here and there.

   The requirements could be re-instated at any time, but those who retired or extended under the exemption would be grandfathered in for life. 

  It is estimated there are currently 100,000 expat retirees in Thailand.

Edited August 1, 2020 by Mac98
spacing error

[Isaan sailor]

They made too many deals with the Devil.  Down goes the economy, unfortunately.

[trainman34014]

55 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

They made too many deals with the Devil.  Down goes the economy, unfortunately.

The real Devils are running the country !

[Leaver]

15 hours ago, BritManToo said:

International restrictions haven't changed, as far as I can see.

Let me predict a world of financial hurt this Autumn as people

1) discover their jobs are gone for good.

2) business surviving on loans and savings run out of money.

3) mass mortgage defaults start to happen, and people can't pay their rent.

4) mass defaults on personal/car loans.

 

Not just in Thailand, but all over the world.

 

In Thailand

Bank shares have reportedly fallen 6% in the last week.

Most banks expected up to 40 per cent non-performing loans (NPL).

Exports are down 25%

Tourism has effectively been wiped out.

And that's just the good news. 

 

The impending reality is considerably worse.

[StrandedinthePark]

If there is no second wave and they continue to wait until there are zero new cases worldwide before allowing tourists to return time will tell how far they are from the bottom, but in my opinion they aren’t even close. 

 

 

[SiSePuede419]

Gotta love the Thai unbridled optimism. ????

[sammieuk1]

He must be talking about a TAT'y bottom of pure speculation and conjecture????  

[SteveK]

8 hours ago, Mac98 said:

   How about a 60,000,000,000 baht boost to the economy that costs the government nothing? Change one rule: delete the 800,000/400,000 baht requirement for retiree extensions. 

   All that money now locked up could flow into the economy, from cars to bars, maybe help with a condo purchase here and there.

   The requirements could be re-instated at any time, but those who retired or extended under the exemption would be grandfathered in for life. 

  It is estimated there are currently 100,000 expat retirees in Thailand.

That makes sense - which is why it won't happen.

 

Making life easier for farangs in Thailand ain't gonna happen, too much loss of face. 

[torturedsole]

The bottom is a long way from being realised just yet.  Gonna be like an asteroid hit on a global scale.  

[Leaver]

19 hours ago, torturedsole said:

The bottom is a long way from being realised just yet.  Gonna be like an asteroid hit on a global scale.  

I agree.  The bottom has not been reached.  Thai's, and Thailand, are treading water at the moment, but the Thai economy is fast losing energy and will eventually start to sink.  

[BestB]

On 8/1/2020 at 7:46 AM, rooster59 said:

Some observers estimate it could rise to 5 million, or about 10 per cent of the total workforce, said Don.

Plenty of previous reports claiming 10 million and growing, so who is pulling the leg ?

[PhiPhi]

Shame these policy makers only ever paid lip service to a sufficiency economy, it might of softened the blow.

[ExpatOilWorker]

The government’s National Economic Social Development Council (NESDC) will announce next week its second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, a year-on-year contraction analysts say is likely to exceed 12%

 

Asia Times: Thailand’s Covid success turns economic failure.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/thailands-covid-success-turns-economic-failure/

[Airalee]

8 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

The government’s National Economic Social Development Council (NESDC) will announce next week its second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, a year-on-year contraction analysts say is likely to exceed 12%

 

Asia Times: Thailand’s Covid success turns economic failure.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/thailands-covid-success-turns-economic-failure/

What’s your best guesstimate on 2020 vs 2019?  You seem to have some of the most realistic posts as to what the final shakeout will be.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20%+

[Leaver]

On 8/17/2020 at 4:25 PM, Airalee said:

What’s your best guesstimate on 2020 vs 2019?  You seem to have some of the most realistic posts as to what the final shakeout will be.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20%+

Towards the end of 2020, there will be carnage in Thailand.  

[Airalee]

9 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Towards the end of 2020, there will be carnage in Thailand.  

Should I load up on sardines and bottled water?  My King Oscars say they’re good until 2022.