U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 170,000 ahead of fall flu season

[webfact]

U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 170,000 ahead of fall flu season

 

FILE PHOTO: A healthcare worker places a stretcher inside of an ambulance at the emergency room entrance of Houston Methodist Hospital in the Texas Medical Center as cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spike in Houston, Texas, U.S., July 8, 2020. REUTERS/Callaghan O'Hare

 

(Reuters) - The United States surpassed 170,000 coronavirus deaths on Sunday, according to a Reuters tally, as health officials express concerns over COVID-19 complicating the fall flu season.

 

Deaths rose by 483 on Sunday, with Florida, Texas and Louisiana, leading the rise in fatalities.

 

The United States has at least 5.4 million confirmed cases in total of the novel coronavirus, the highest in the world and likely an undercount as the country still has not ramped up testing to the recommended levels. Cases are falling in most states except for Hawaii, South Dakota and Illinois.

 

Public health officials and authorities are concerned about a possible fall resurgence in cases amid the start of the flu season, which will likely exacerbate efforts to treat the coronavirus.

 

Centers for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield warned the United States may be in for its "worst fall" if the public does not follow health guidelines in an interview with Web MD.

 

Months into the pandemic, the U.S. economic recovery from the recession triggered by the outbreak is still staggered, with some hot spots slowing their reopenings and others shutting down businesses.

 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is anticipating an uptick in COVID-19 cases in the coming months, resulting in around 300,000 total deaths by December, and a nearly 75% increase in hospitalizations.

 

Worldwide there are at least 21.5 million coronavirus cases and over 765,000 confirmed deaths. The United States remains the global epicenter of the virus, with around a quarter of the cases and deaths.

 

(Reporting by Aurora Ellis; editing by Diane Craft)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-08-17

 

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[Tug]

It’s a horrific statistic it’s twice the number of marines and army personnel killed in the pacific theater during ww2 plus the total killed serving in the 8th Air Force (26,000) thrown in and you would still come up 12,000 short of that total in 6 months of mismanagement under this administration that’s horrific 

[Pattaya Spotter]

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

Some of course but I reckon not nearly as many as you seem to be implying. 

[mtls2005]

18 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

 

Do you mean in the same time-frame? Or eventually. My SWAGs: 0% and 100% respectively.

 

Deniers and hoaxers offer zero value-add.

 

When you add in the "excess mortality" and longer-term deaths as a result of COVID complications, the number will likely be +20%.

 

Saw a poll that said nearly 50% would NOT take the vaccine. 

 

Case count and death toll seems to dip on the weekends; suspect that's due to a lack of data being collected/transmitted due to personnel issues.

 

Testing is down quite a bit, so cases are down too.

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by mtls2005

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Tug said:

It’s a horrific statistic it’s twice the number of marines and army personnel killed in the pacific theater during ww2 plus the total killed serving in the 8th Air Force (26,000) thrown in and you would still come up 12,000 short of that total in 6 months of mismanagement under this administration that’s horrific 

That, or you could say that it is about 4 years of road traffic fatalities, which will keep on piling up long after the virus is gone.

[mtls2005]

7 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That, or you could say that it is about 4 years of road traffic fatalities, which will keep on piling up long after the virus is gone.

 

This argument, a false-equivalency - doesn't make sense even when one is blackout-drunk.

 

No clue why people think this is some sort of "brilliant" argument?

 

 

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by mtls2005

[Pattaya Spotter]

20 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Some of course but I reckon not nearly as many as you seem to be implying. 

I guess the more precise question is how much higher is this figure from the "normal" background death rate for this period of time.

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

 

This argument, a false-equivalency - doesn't make sense even when one is blackout-drunk.

 

No clue why people think this is some sort of "brilliant" argument?

 

 

 

 

True, but I was commenting on Tug post, above, who compared the covid 19 death toll with the one of WWII... 

[JCauto]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I guess the more precise question is how much higher is this figure from the "normal" background death rate for this period of time.

Indeed, and an excellent point. If you go on that basis, then the death toll would be more than 200,000.

[candide]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

It's very easy to check as the number of excess deaths is known. Actually, the number of excess deaths is higher than the number of registered covid-19 deaths. The number,beer of covid-19 death is underestimated.

For example, on July 13, there was 149,200 excess deaths in the US, to compare with 135,425 official covid-19 deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

So, as the NYT suggests, it is quite likely that the true number is already close to 200,000.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

[chrisinth]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I guess the more precise question is how much higher is this figure from the "normal" background death rate for this period of time.

Then you would have to add the figure for natural/ accidental / fabricated (murder & violence) deaths to the figure for covid-19 victims to have any sort of realistic total.

[PETERTHEEATER]

5 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

Both of them.

[Ireland32]

If the Covidiots wear mask No Flu 

[Paul Henry]

Covid 19 death rate is for people who have died from Covid 19 and does not include other causes of death.

So no use trying to muddy the water by coming up with irrelevant facts. eg dead from : shootings, road trauma, alcoholism, smoking, drugs and other illnesses to mane just a few.

[Srikcir]

In response to the growing number of covid-19 deaths approaching 170,000 USPHS Admiral Girior says the administration is doing everything it can.

When is failure resulting in deaths good enough?

Trump, 'It is what it is.'

Obviously not a plan.

[AgMech Cowboy]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

The United States surpassed 170,000 coronavirus deaths on Sunday, according to a Reuters tally, as health officials express concerns over COVID-19 complicating the fall flu season.

I don't see the concern here. There hasn't been a death from the flu since COVID19 arrived.

[puipuitom]

8 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

But how many of these people would be dead anyway from non-Covid related reasons because of old age or other serious underlying health conditions?

Even worse: All will die ( sooner of later, just a matter of time).

But.. My wife and I still enjoy every minute we can see, hear and touch our grandchildren, and see their developments...

[connda]

But think on the bright side: Covid has single-handedly cured the seasonal flu. 

[Peterw42]

Logically, there probably wont be much of the flu this year. With shutdowns, masks, distancing, hand washing etc it wont get much of a chance to spread.

[ncc1701d]

5 hours ago, chrisinth said:

Then you would have to add the figure for natural/ accidental / fabricated (murder & violence) deaths to the figure for covid-19 victims to have any sort of realistic total.

No, it's built into the average. So if the average number of deaths - from all types of deaths for the last 5 years for the same time period was 100,000 and then this year there was 150,000 - then you can theorise that 50,000 died from covid (directly or indirectly). 

[Sheryl]

5 hours ago, candide said:

It's very easy to check as the number of excess deaths is known. Actually, the number of excess deaths is higher than the number of registered covid-19 deaths. The number,beer of covid-19 death is underestimated.

For example, on July 13, there was 149,200 excess deaths in the US, to compare with 135,425 official covid-19 deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

So, as the NYT suggests, it is quite likely that the true number is already close to 200,000.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

 

Excess deaths are higher than reported COVID death pretty much everywhere.

 

In Mexico, where there is great reluctance to use hospitals, it is two fold greater. I would be amazed if it is not the same or worse in India given the state of public hospitals there even in the best of times.

 

Almost certainly worldwide we have already passed 1 million deaths.

 

Excessive deaths is certainly the best measure of the pandemic's impact but need to understand it will also capture pandemic-related deaths not due to COVID e.g. deaths due to overall lack of health care/over straining of health system. On the other hand it will not include  the much touted but actually few "people who were about to die anyway" since they would be among expected numbers. And it will be reduced by lockdown's effects on road accidents.

 

 

[heybruce]

4 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Logically, there probably wont be much of the flu this year. With shutdowns, masks, distancing, hand washing etc it wont get much of a chance to spread.

That only works if people wear masks, practice social distancing, and high risk businesses and schools are kept shutdown.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I expect another surge in infections, followed a few weeks later by a surge in deaths, when the schools open.

[JerseytoBKK]

8 hours ago, candide said:

It's very easy to check as the number of excess deaths is known. Actually, the number of excess deaths is higher than the number of registered covid-19 deaths. The number,beer of covid-19 death is underestimated.

For example, on July 13, there was 149,200 excess deaths in the US, to compare with 135,425 official covid-19 deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

So, as the NYT suggests, it is quite likely that the true number is already close to 200,000.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

Or maybe the additional deaths are because of lockdowns? Suicides are up, drug overdoses are up, people were scared to go for chemo treatment.

[JerseytoBKK]

7.7 Billion people on the planet and 60 Million died last year. Almost 40% were over 70 years old.

Covid global deaths under 1 Million and the vast majority are over 70 with serious health complications. All facts that are easy to look up.

 

US deaths last year were over 2.8 Million. Covid deaths so far less than 10% of total deaths from last year. Again, mostly elderly with serious complications. 

 

In 2017, in the US almost 650,000 died of heart disease and 600,000 died of cancer. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929#cancer

 

There were doctors reporting that the shutdown was causing patients to skip needed treatments.

 

Read about just a few of the effects of the global lockdown: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-lockdown-could-lead-nearly-15-million-extra-tb-deaths/

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by JerseytoBKK

[JerseytoBKK]

Here's another effect of the lockdowns:

 

"Recent modelling by UNAIDS and the World Health Organization has predicted that there could be 500,000 extra AIDS-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020-2021 if the COVID-19 crisis leads to a six-month disruption in vital supplies of antiretroviral medication."

 

https://frontlineaids.org/were-on-the-frontline-of/coronavirus-covid-19-impact-hiv/

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/06-07-2020-who-access-to-hiv-medicines-severely-impacted-by-covid-19-as-aids-response-stalls

 

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, JerseytoBKK said:

Or maybe the additional deaths are because of lockdowns? Suicides are up, drug overdoses are up, people were scared to go for chemo treatment.

It could be. However, because of lockdowns, there is less risk to die from accidents, fights, pollution, etc... and also less risk to catch another desease.

[candide]

2 hours ago, JerseytoBKK said:

7.7 Billion people on the planet and 60 Million died last year. Almost 40% were over 70 years old.

Covid global deaths under 1 Million and the vast majority are over 70 with serious health complications. All facts that are easy to look up.

 

US deaths last year were over 2.8 Million. Covid deaths so far less than 10% of total deaths from last year. Again, mostly elderly with serious complications. 

 

In 2017, in the US almost 650,000 died of heart disease and 600,000 died of cancer. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929#cancer

 

There were doctors reporting that the shutdown was causing patients to skip needed treatments.

 

Read about just a few of the effects of the global lockdown: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-lockdown-could-lead-nearly-15-million-extra-tb-deaths/

 

Ok. However:

- cancer is not contagious

- the current covid-19 numbers include the effect of lockdowns. Otherwise the epidemic would have followed a logarithmic increase which is typical of network effects.

[richard_smith237]

6 minutes ago, candide said:

Ok. However:

- cancer is not contagious

- the current covid-19 numbers include the effect of lockdowns. Otherwise the epidemic would have followed a logarithmic increase which is typical of network effects.

IF lockdowns were effective they would have needed to be in place early, very early. This is the main complaint against China for letting the world know too late. Whether or not the world wold have listened and locked down in November is another matter (I don’t thing we would have). 

 

There is argument which suggests that those countries which fully locked down will be engulfed with the virus once they open up again, whereas countries such as Sweden (and now much of Europe and Americas) have allowed (maybe unwittingly) the virus to take a more natural course through the continent while at the same time preventing the health services from being overwhelmed such that those who did require hospitalisation could be treated while also acknowledging that many would also succumb to the virus with or without treatment as soon as the virus swept through. 

 

The only difference is how effective a vaccine will be otherwise similar numbers who were going to succumb anyway, will still succumb - lock down has just delayed the inevitable. 

 

Unfortunately massive economic damage has already been done. 

 

 

Just of note: When reports such as this come in of 170,000 Coronavirus deaths (specifically Covid-19) its important to understand perspective: In the USA, in 2018 there were 2,839,205 deaths - Deaths blamed on Covid-19 are at about 6% of the yearly toll. 

 

However, the real number is the ‘Excess Deaths’...  I’ve not seen a US figure for this. 

 

The UK has about 55,000 excess deaths (for the first half of the year) however for the past month the deaths per week compared to the 5 year running average is less than the previous 5 years. 

 

 

 

 

 

[candide]

23 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

IF lockdowns were effective they would have needed to be in place early, very early. This is the main complaint against China for letting the world know too late. Whether or not the world wold have listened and locked down in November is another matter (I don’t thing we would have). 

 

There is argument which suggests that those countries which fully locked down will be engulfed with the virus once they open up again, whereas countries such as Sweden (and now much of Europe and Americas) have allowed (maybe unwittingly) the virus to take a more natural course through the continent while at the same time preventing the health services from being overwhelmed such that those who did require hospitalisation could be treated while also acknowledging that many would also succumb to the virus with or without treatment as soon as the virus swept through. 

 

The only difference is how effective a vaccine will be otherwise similar numbers who were going to succumb anyway, will still succumb - lock down has just delayed the inevitable. 

 

Unfortunately massive economic damage has already been done. 

 

 

Just of note: When reports such as this come in of 170,000 Coronavirus deaths (specifically Covid-19) its important to understand perspective: In the USA, in 2018 there were 2,839,205 deaths - Deaths blamed on Covid-19 are at about 6% of the yearly toll. 

 

However, the real number is the ‘Excess Deaths’...  I’ve not seen a US figure for this. 

 

The UK has about 55,000 excess deaths (for the first half of the year) however for the past month the deaths per week compared to the 5 year running average is less than the previous 5 years. 

 

 

 

 

 

You can find the excess death numbers here (as of July 13th). UK 65,700.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

 

As for the argument that people who did not die  before will die later:

- not all of them because of network effect pattern. Because of herd immunity (if confirmed) of part of the population, the next wave will not enjoy the same speed and extent

- when lockdown were decided, very little was known about this virus, how to treat it, etc... infrastructures and supplies were also not available (except for a few countries such as Germany). Under such conditions, delaying until more knowledge and supplies is accumulated was a smart tactic.

Edited August 17, 2020 by candide