Thais hope 2 million foreign tourists will visit from year end to March, despite all the restrictions

[Skeptic7]

Thailand...A Tragic Comedy of Fools. 

 

Considered writing it, but it writes itself! 

[Dialemco]

30 minutes ago, robsamui said:

This plan is obviously just grabbed out of thin air by people with severely non-functional minds - the initial government proposal to fly tourists to an island with no airport gives the first clue  . . . 

Then lets look at the numbers.

There are exactly 90 days in January, February and March 2021. Fitting 2 million people into that time (77 days) would necessitate 25,975 people arriving per day. That by itself is ludicrous enough when you realise that only 2 airports are available. (nb This is going to be calculated for SEVENTY SEVEN days . . . the final 13 days don't figure into the equation as there is not enough time left for 14 days quarantine.)

Boeing 747s hold 660 passengers - but with social distancing let's assume that's reduced to 330 passengers. Therefore to make up the quota of 25,974 people per day, it would mean 79 flights PER DAY coming into 2 airports, assuming all 'planes were filled to safe-distancing-capacity.

That means one full-to-capacity Boeing 747 arriving every 18.22 minutes . . . for the best part of three months.

And this is where the real fun starts.

18.22 minutes into January 1st, there are 330 beaming tourists to cart off to their expensive 5-star government quarantine hotel. A further 18.22 minutes later into day 1, there's another 330 tourists to quarantine. And 18.22 minutes after that, another 'plane arrives with 330 more tourists in it.

Thus at the end of the first 24-hour period 79 'planeloads of tourists with 330 tourists on each will need to have arrived for the Amazing Thai Government is to fill its "2-million in 3 months" quota. That's 23,700 tourists on the first day (24 hours) alone.

And another 23,700 on the second day, and the third day . . . all of whom need to be quarantined. So at the end of the first three days, we need to have 71,100 tourists in 5-star government approved hotels. And this number will increase daily, at the rate of 23,700 per day, right up until the 15th day, when the initial 23,700 tourists from the very first day will have finished their quarantine.

Bottom line - on the 15th day, before that first batch can be released, there will need to be 331,800  quarantined tourists.

And then this level will continue to run through until the end of March - every day there will be a balance maintained of 331,800 in quarantine while 23,700 each and every day for two-and a-half months are released to wander around Thailand.

Thailand has never, ever, been quite this amazing.

Basis Government figures they can handle about 500 persons per day so you are right complete nonsense. No foreign tourism this year and probably next year. It was announced last week Bangkok Airport closed indefinitely only cargo, repatriation and domestic flights.

[steven100]

oh dear !   yes honey ...  we're off to Thailand for a couple of weeks holiday next month  .... oh that's sounds nice dear  .. where are we staying .... well we're booked in at the Maitria Hotel on Sukhumvit .... oh that sounds lovely dear ....   ' a bit of sight seeing !!  oh no honey !  we have to stay in the room for 2 weeks then we'll fly back.  !!!!!!!    lol  ????

[David T Pike]

Good luck with that! 555!

[Blumpie]

They're going to what for 14 days then what the what?

How about health insurance?  Who can afford that during a pandemic?

Maybe 2 thousand.  

Oh lord, these people are delusional!!

[sambum]

Let's not forget which "Ministry" came up with these projections! "Ministry of Tourism and Sports" aka "Tourism Authority of Thailand" aka "The Ministry of Funny Talks"

[rabang]

Incredible stuff from someone in the government but they sure provide a good laugh every day. Something different indeed!

[Sydebolle]

Opening the country with reasonable conditions which make common sense ....... might be definitely a step in the right direction - until then, keep on dreaming  

[Straight8]

This one is going into the CBF busket.

 

 

[P100]

Just wait for the additional requirements.They will have plenty of. Covid insurance? Bank deposit? Various approval letters? Certification about lower IQ than Thai officials? Wait, that is impossible to present! So no fly no come.

[tandor]

...maybe if you told the truth and really got your act together, a small minority may come..a lot of damage has been done and the rest of the 'real world' are just a tad suspicious. Hmmm...and why would you come to a neighbouring country where the whole sad thing eventuated?

[ThailandRyan]

52 minutes ago, robsamui said:

This plan is obviously just grabbed out of thin air by people with severely non-functional minds - the initial government proposal to fly tourists to an island with no airport gives the first clue  . . . 

Then lets look at the numbers.

There are exactly 90 days in January, February and March 2021. Fitting 2 million people into that time (77 days) would necessitate 25,975 people arriving per day. That by itself is ludicrous enough when you realise that only 2 airports are available. (nb This is going to be calculated for SEVENTY SEVEN days . . . the final 13 days don't figure into the equation as there is not enough time left for 14 days quarantine.)

Boeing 747s hold 660 passengers - but with social distancing let's assume that's reduced to 330 passengers. Therefore to make up the quota of 25,974 people per day, it would mean 79 flights PER DAY coming into 2 airports, assuming all 'planes were filled to safe-distancing-capacity.

That means one full-to-capacity Boeing 747 arriving every 18.22 minutes . . . for the best part of three months.

And this is where the real fun starts.

18.22 minutes into January 1st, there are 330 beaming tourists to cart off to their expensive 5-star government quarantine hotel. A further 18.22 minutes later into day 1, there's another 330 tourists to quarantine. And 18.22 minutes after that, another 'plane arrives with 330 more tourists in it.

Thus at the end of the first 24-hour period 79 'planeloads of tourists with 330 tourists on each will need to have arrived for the Amazing Thai Government is to fill its "2-million in 3 months" quota. That's 23,700 tourists on the first day (24 hours) alone.

And another 23,700 on the second day, and the third day . . . all of whom need to be quarantined. So at the end of the first three days, we need to have 71,100 tourists in 5-star government approved hotels. And this number will increase daily, at the rate of 23,700 per day, right up until the 15th day, when the initial 23,700 tourists from the very first day will have finished their quarantine.

Bottom line - on the 15th day, before that first batch can be released, there will need to be 331,800  quarantined tourists.

And then this level will continue to run through until the end of March - every day there will be a balance maintained of 331,800 in quarantine while 23,700 each and every day for two-and a-half months are released to wander around Thailand.

Thailand has never, ever, been quite this amazing.

An in-depth study completed by one of TV's brain trust.  It boggles the mind that you can put this down where it is completely understood and yet the Thai government and TAT will possibly say that they can manage it with a good plan they have and your numbers can not be correct because you think to much.

[Arkady]

6 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

Everyone but the Thai ministers know this makes zero sense.

 

If you're a real tourist, who would spend 2 weeks in quarantine on arrival + 2 weeks quarantine back in their home country for a 1 week holiday in Phuket? Who even has 5 weeks holiday to do it as a lot of people used up their holiday time during lockdown when they ran out of sick leave.

 

Then you have the long stay like me who spend 6 months per year in Pattaya. Why would I want to stay in Phuket for 3 weeks at my cost. I have no interest going there 

 

 

I believe you are right and this estimate is somewhat unrealistic. We could go through the tourist stats in detail but I think a broad brush look would be enough for them to see this will be difficult to achieve. In Jan-Mar 2019 there were 10.79 million total arrivals. I believe that around 40% of arrivals have been going to Phuket in recent years. So generously we could say that perhaps 5 million went to Phuket, Phi Phi and Samui. From that you have to exclude all the regular shorter term tourists who will not be coming for long enough to want to spend 14 days quarantine and possibly the same again on their return home. That means people who have around 8 weeks or more available counting quarantine at both ends and that only gives them a 4 weeks holiday out of quarantine. So realistically most people would need to be staying for longer than two months involving the hassle of visa extensions and they certainly cannot do a visa run and be quarantined again in both places. Gap year students have enough time to consider a trip like this but not many would want to come if they can't see Bangkok and tour around the country. I think they will be basically left with the regulars who maybe have holiday homes and spend half the year or more in Phuket or Samui.  That can't possibly amount to 2 million tourists.

 

 

[welshguy]

Like most other people on here, Im not surprised anymore, with the stuff coming out of T.A.T.

 

What I am surprised at is, why they are never "questioned", (eg. by the media etc.) in Thailand? Im not great at maths/logistics! As pointed out though in previous replies, even the logistics makes no sense whatsoever! 

 

I despair for the majority of Thai people.

 

Im desperate to come back to Thailand...(for a few months visit), Ive been going for almost 40 years now, my September flight, has of course, already been cancelled...god knows when I can get back there..."hopefully" next year....who really knows though.?..certainly not me.

 

I just cant understand, how T.A.T. just spout the nonsensical things they do, ......without at least getting called out  ( in Thailand by journalists etc etc!) for the stuff they say?!!

 

T.I.T........!

Edited August 24, 2020 by welshguy
spelling!

[SiSePuede419]

Whether you are quarantined in a hotel in Bangkok or on an island, what's the difference?

 

Wouldn't you have better TV channels in Bangkok and a bigger selection of takeout delivered to your hotel room?

 

I don't get it.

[Truth Will Set You Free]

Why can’t we all just get alone........and let these fools fool their people with these .........whatever you wanna call it ideas of hope and no prayers.  Face the truth, only the Chineses wants to get and spread more COVID. 
 

why don’t the government just do everyone a favor, go back into lock down, to many people are dying on the streets and motorways. It’s a in country pandemic itself.

[leicesterguyuk]

I can't understand so many people saying that this isn't for the standard tourist... of course it's not. The plan even states a minimum stay of 30 days. It is for 'tourists' but not a regular 2 week holiday. People that come for 3-6 months a year are tourists, those that visit their spouse are tourists, those coming for a few months each winter on a retirement visa are tourists. They aren't saying it's for short holidays. 

 

The 2 million figure I think relates to October to March, so 6 months not 3 months. And I believe the initial list of Phuket, Krabi and Phi Phi to just be a starting point to test the waters for both demand and outcome. If successful it will be introduced in other areas. Although 2 million does seem somewhat optimistic! 

 

There is so much negativity on here. If they do nothing they're criticised, likewise when they come up with a plan. Admittedly it's not perfect, but I haven't read any other alternatives that would ensure the same level of safety. It can't be compared to European countries or elsewhere, Thailand isn't interested in self isolation, they have seen how totally unsuccessful that has been throughout Europe, the US and beyond. 

 

It's simply a way for those who really need / want to get back there to make it happen and there will be a lot of takers. 

[Westie1]

6 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

There are people who will be happy to do this.

They have a house here and usually come for a minimum of three months. Sometimes six months.

In the village where I live I know of 6, possibly 8 that would jump at the chance.

Just 1,999,992 to go

I will also be coming. 1,999,991 to go ???? 

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Westie1

[Truth Will Set You Free]

3 minutes ago, leicesterguyuk said:

I can't understand so many people saying that this isn't for the standard tourist... of course it's not. The plan even states a minimum stay of 30 days. It is for 'tourists' but not a regular 2 week holiday. People that come for 3-6 months a year are tourists, those that visit their spouse are tourists, those coming for a few months each winter on a retirement visa are tourists. They aren't saying it's for short holidays. 

 

The 2 million figure I think relates to October to March, so 6 months not 3 months. And I believe the initial list of Phuket, Krabi and Phi Phi to just be a starting point to test the waters for both demand and outcome. If successful it will be introduced in other areas. Although 2 million does seem somewhat optimistic! 

 

There is so much negativity on here. If they do nothing they're criticised, likewise when they come up with a plan. Admittedly it's not perfect, but I haven't read any other alternatives that would ensure the same level of safety. It can't be compared to European countries or elsewhere, Thailand isn't interested in self isolation, they have seen how totally unsuccessful that has been throughout Europe, the US and beyond. 

 

It's simply a way for those who really need / want to get back there to make it happen and there will be a lot of takers. 

What you smoking guy ???????????????? Anyone coming into the country will do 14 days regardless. You must have just join this forum......

[tomauasia]

If they get 2000 it's s win 

[joecoolfrog]

Utterly deluded !

[Misterwhisper]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Foreigners would have to go directly to their destination by air (how this applied to Phi Phi was not explained).

Air drop?

 

But then we face the problem how to get them OFF the island once their quarantined holiday is over. Maybe winch them up up one by one to a hovering helicopter, huh?

[Raphus]

OH. NOW THEY HOPE AND WANT DIRTY FARANGS TO COME BACK !!!

[Misterwhisper]

4 minutes ago, Raphus said:

OH. NOW THEY HOPE AND WANT DIRTY FARANGS TO COME BACK !!!

But only to islands - which can be easily isolated and contained in case the foreigner infestation gets out of hand.

[digger70]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Thais hope 2 million foreign tourists will visit from year end to March, despite all the restrictions

Why would Anyone trying to visit Thailand being for tourism or other ,all the trouble plus 14 day Quarantine .by the time one gets her the holiday is over.

[leicesterguyuk]

13 minutes ago, Truth Will Set You Free said:

What you smoking guy ???????????????? Anyone coming into the country will do 14 days regardless. You must have just join this forum......

What are you saying, do you disagree with any of what I said? 

[Isaan sailor]

Sorry, ain’t gonna happen.  14-day quarantine, coupled with an uncontrolled rising Baht spells disaster for tourism and exports.

[Rockbottom]

Put them on islands that will be renamed Alcatraz 1-3 and then subject the foreigners to financial stress paying exorbitant rates for hotels, keep then under 24 hour GPS and hotel staff surveillance, and subject them to multiple testing. Sounds like fun! 

 

If any of these measures are not followed perfectly, all non-compliant foreigners will be continually badgered by local police, be placed under strict quarantine for another 14 days and told repeatedly 24/7 they are a filthy, dirty foreigners that rarely take showers. To deal with the general anxiety disorders that may emerge, all dirty foreigners will be given "the blue pill". See the movie Shutter Island.

[jethro69]

6 hours ago, Paiman said:

May be because 98% of Thais think their country is better than other countries - logic to follow, 98% of all international Tourists have only 1 dream - holidays in the promised land  -  Thailand.

 

Sometimes I think my jar of peanut butter in the cupboard has an higher IQ than these official Lurers.

I couldn't have put it better  together myself.

 

[ThailandRyan]

Maybe it is why Anut In has been so quiet of late.  Either that or he has been silenced by the lead PM himself as every time he opens his mouth he offends people.