why isnt london having a 2nd wave??

[3NUMBAS]

As other cities go into lockdown, why isn’t London having a second wave?

Jamie Doward

,

The Guardian•6 September 2020

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/other-cities-lockdown-why-isn-055416093.html

 

It is a question that puzzles both those on the front line fighting Covid 19 and the experts developing strategies to combat its next move: why has London not seen a second flare-up when other parts of the UK are now having to introduce new lockdown restrictions?

“It’s a bit of an enigma, given that London very definitely led during the initial peak,” said Professor David Alexander, who is based at the Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction at University College London.

[ukrules]

I believe they call it 'immunity', a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

 

If you don't 'get it' again then you don't 'spread it' again, etc.

 

If many people in an area have this 'immunity' then it doesn't spread that much but it will continue to spread in areas of low or no immunity.

Edited September 6, 2020 by ukrules

[scammed]

statistics indicate regions that were hit hard dont get a 2nd wave, i.e herd immunity is achieved at the cost of the weak

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I believe they call it 'immunity', a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

 

If you don't 'get it' again then you don't 'spread it' again, etc.

 

If many people in an area have this 'immunity' then it doesn't spread that much but it will continue to spread in areas of low or no immunity.

Does that mean that Sweden won't get a second wave and places like Melbourne that keep going into lock down who are now worried about wave number 3,and possibly more,will be wasting there time trying to stop it?

[FarFlungFalang]

27 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

It is a question that puzzles both those on the front line fighting Covid 19 and the experts developing strategies to combat its next move: why has London not seen a second flare-up when other parts of the UK are now having to introduce new lockdown restrictions?

Some experts predicted this at the beginning of this pandemic but were labelled looney conspiracy theorists and their videos were banned.

[scammed]

8 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Does that mean that Sweden won't get a second wave and places like Melbourne that keep going into lock down who are now worried about wave number 3,and possibly more,will be wasting there time trying to stop it?

yes that is exactly what statistics so far is telling us

[tribalfusion001]

And certain communities in the UK spread it around themselves and for the most part it stays within that community.

[geriatrickid]

It can be argued, that London has not fully  exited the "First Wave", since the infections never really stopped.

The explanation of why London has trended to lower number of diagnosed infections is simple: Age 

 

22 minutes ago, ukrules said:

I believe they call it immunity, a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

No. You want to believe that. It gives hope, but there is no data to support your position.

What we do know is that age is a factor. 

Know what else attaches to the age characteristic? The severity and frequency of associated diseases that increase the risk of people. Let's just deal with the established facts: Younger people are less likely to contract the illness and when they do, they are less likely to show symptoms and so they are less likely to seek medical care and to be tested. 

 

For reference sake; 

London’s population is young (average age 36.5) compared to the UK overall (40.3).

More than one in 10 people living in Inner London (11.7%) are aged between 30 and 34. This compares to just 6.2% of those in the rest of England. More broadly, in Inner London, almost half the population is made up of those who are in their early twenties to early forties (47%), compared to the rest of England where three in 10 (31%) are in this age group, and Inner London is home to a higher proportion of young people than Outer London.  Most importantly, only a  small proportion of London’s population is over 65; 9% in Inner London and 14% in Outer London compared to 19% in the rest of England.

[Kinnock]

Two mechanisms slow or stop the spread of any virus - people either adopt new behaviors that prevents them catching it (handwashing, not touching face, masks, crowd avoidance etc for COVID, flu, condoms for HIV) or they catch it and are immune for a while or dead forever.

 

Either way, the R number drops below 1.0 and it fades out. 

Harder hit cities in first wave will have more people practicing good precautions and more people immune, so a lesser second wave.

 

Vaccines only help a minority unless there's a major, global campaign such as with smallpix or polio.  

 

My guess is Thailand has enough immunity from the 2019 first wave which went largely undetected as COVID was not fashionable yet.  London too from early 2020.   All the lockdowns were just economic self flagelation. 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

I'm still pushing my looney conspiracy theory that this virus came to Thailand in Nov/Dec and finished up about Mar/Apr based on the unusually high numbers of viral pneumonia deaths being reported during that time which I think got to about 3700 before they stopped publishing the figures.Hence I believe it's possible that Thailand has already reached immunity.My theory would also explain why Thailand did so well with the numbers because by time they developed testing capability the pandemic was pretty much finished here.

[geriatrickid]

13 minutes ago, scammed said:

yes that is exactly what statistics so far is telling us

No that is not what the  "statistics" show.

There is no need for fanciful explanations when the data trends reflect what has been know since the start of the pandemic.

Populations which are older have the higher risk of infection.

[geriatrickid]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I'm still pushing my looney conspiracy theory that this virus came to Thailand in Nov/Dec and finished up about Mar/Apr based on the unusually high numbers of viral pneumonia deaths being reported during that time which I think got to about 3700 before they stopped publishing the figures.Hence I believe it's possible that Thailand has already reached immunity.My theory would also explain why Thailand did so well with the numbers because by time they developed testing capability the pandemic was pretty much finished here.

And yet  there is no supporting  evidence in the form of data,  studies or literature reviews to support your position. 

perhaps you are a genius, and the world does not know about you. You possess an inherent brilliance such that the people who have spent decades  studying infectious diseases, viruses and public health know nothing when compared to you.

 

I recommend that you present your findings to the world. You can save the world.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

My guess is Thailand has enough immunity from the 2019 first wave which went largely undetected as COVID was not fashionable yet.  London too from early 2020.   All the lockdowns were just economic self flagelation. 

Great minds think alike as they say.I know there was a lot of flu like stuff going around here in Jan/Feb.Love the economic self flagellation a very apt description.

[geriatrickid]

38 minutes ago, scammed said:

statistics indicate regions that were hit hard dont get a 2nd wave, i.e herd immunity is achieved at the cost of the weak

Absolute rubbish. You do not understand the concept of "waves". Many countries have not yet finished their first wave.

Canada is one country which comes to mind. It is now experiencing a relatively large explosion of cases. The golden boy of success, British Columbia is  in crisis. Quebec and Ontario which had managed to get the disease under control are experiencing large outbreaks.  They are not into their second wave. On the contrary, what we are seeing is the impact of factors;

- Schools have reopened and the  cases counts are increasing.

-  The  20-30 age demographic has been non compliant with  house parties,  karaoke events, refusal to self quarantine when identified as at risk etc.

 

If a second wave comes, we will know it, because it will most likely be more severe and it will occur when populations are packed in close conditions inside buildings.

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, geriatrickid said:

And yet  there is no supporting  evidence in the form of data,  studies or literature reviews to support your position. 

perhaps you are a genius, and the world does not know about you. You possess an inherent brilliance such that the people who have spent decades  studying infectious diseases, viruses and public health know nothing when compared to you.

 

I recommend that you present your findings to the world. You can save the world.

 

Thanks for your endearing comments and I have repeatedly presented my findings here.If you would like to share them that would be just excellent.A simple observation given that Thailand topped the list of countries outside of China to be affected.It could also be assumed that the infection was around for a couple of months before being detected as a new disease.Thailand was also a favourite destination for those in Wuhan so it's not really rocket surgery to figure out just some pretty basic intelligence.But I can tell from your condescending tone that you're not into conspiracy theories and are more of a narrative nanny.  

[geriatrickid]

6 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Great minds think alike as they say.I know there was a lot of flu like stuff going around here in Jan/Feb.Love the economic self flagellation a very apt description.

No. Ppeople seeking  validation congregate together to enable the promotion of their unfounded claims. It gives them comfort.

You people promote and cling to the claims of "immunity" without any factual basis that it is exists. It is a cult of ignorance.

 

You are afraid and desperate for reassurance. If there was inherent long term immunity to a corona virus, we would not be infected by corona viruses after an infection. The common colds that we  all experience every year would  not occur.

Yes, there are antibodies present in patients who recover. That is part of the mechanism of recovery. However, there is no evidence that these antibodies and the associated immunity persist over time. What is your evidence that the immunity is there?

 

How is it,you people with  no education, no experience in  patient care, no experience in  virology, or microbiology or public health know it all and the  people who have dedicated decades to the subject have it all wrong?  How is it you people are such brilliant experts and you have kept your  scientific brilliance hidden from the world? Come now, you must share this knowledge and save the world. All the research  into infectious diseases, immunology and public health is   a waste since you have the solution here.

 

[mr mr]

i wish i could get a 2nd wave when i went to walking street looking for trouble. god i'm such a pathetic loser.  

[Kinnock]

26 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

And yet  there is no supporting  evidence in the form of data,  studies or literature reviews to support your position. 

perhaps you are a genius, and the world does not know about you. You possess an inherent brilliance such that the people who have spent decades  studying infectious diseases, viruses and public health know nothing when compared to you.

 

I recommend that you present your findings to the world. You can save the world.

 

There are no reliable studies on Thailand's response to the pandenic for one obvious reason - there is no reliable data to study.  Limited reporting and even more limited testing.

 

But even the most comprehensives studies do not state anything with absolute certainty, they only post theories and proposals for further research, as it's still an emerging area of scientific knowledge.

 

There's also too many variables to draw definite conclusions - a report in The Lancet last week was saying that the UK may have such high numbers because their government chose a particular test kit that is now known to have a very high rate of false positives.  Add in the different reporting criteria and different testing numbers, and any comparisons between country cannot be reliable.

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

No. Ppeople seeking  validation congregate together to enable the promotion of their unfounded claims. It gives them comfort.

You people promote and cling to the claims of "immunity" without any factual basis that it is exists. It is a cult of ignorance.

 

You are afraid and desperate for reassurance. If there was inherent long term immunity to a corona virus, we would not be infected by corona viruses after an infection. The common colds that we  all experience every year would  not occur.

Yes, there are antibodies present in patients who recover. That is part of the mechanism of recovery. However, there is no evidence that these antibodies and the associated immunity persist over time. What is your evidence that the immunity is there?

 

How is it,you people with  no education, no experience in  patient care, no experience in  virology, or microbiology or public health know it all and the  people who have dedicated decades to the subject have it all wrong?  How is it you people are such brilliant experts and you have kept your  scientific brilliance hidden from the world? Come now, you must share this knowledge and save the world. All the research  into infectious diseases, immunology and public health is   a waste since you have the solution here.

 

Hey dude lighten up!To quote Heath Ledger "Why So Serious?"There are eminent virologist on both sides of the covid debate in regards to several issues and I agree with some.I have no access to the data that supports my "theory",you do understand the concept of a theory I take it,I make no claim that it has been verified by any data yet,I haven't made any claims that others have it wrong I don't claim to "know it all" and as I stated earlier I have shared this knowledge other wise you wouldn't be bleating on with your spurious claims that I see myself as some sort of genius.The pandemic isn't finished and studies on the pandemic are not completed so it's a bit difficult to draw any conclusions in regards to what is occurring so take a deep breath,calm down and sit back and watch it all unfold,and don't forget to smile and enjoy yourself which can be difficult in these trying times.Me? I will carry on trying to save the .world

[Enoon]

55 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

Let's just deal with the established facts: Younger people are less likely to contract the illness ..........,

Infections by age/gender in England up to 30th July.

 

25-29 looks pretty young from where I am now.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1115083/coronavirus-cases-in-england-by-age-and-gender/

 

 

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Enoon

[vermin on arrival]

58 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I'm still pushing my looney conspiracy theory that this virus came to Thailand in Nov/Dec and finished up about Mar/Apr based on the unusually high numbers of viral pneumonia deaths being reported during that time which I think got to about 3700 before they stopped publishing the figures.Hence I believe it's possible that Thailand has already reached immunity.My theory would also explain why Thailand did so well with the numbers because by time they developed testing capability the pandemic was pretty much finished here.

If it truly started spreading since the World Military Games in Wuhan in October 2019, then your theory would make sense. This would also explain samples from people who had a flu-like illness  in France in December also testing positive for the virus.

 

Taiwan News title: Coronavirus may have been spreading since Wuhan Military Games last October

 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3932712

 

For France:

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/french-doctors-say-they-found-a-covid-19-patient-from-december-1.4924548

[vermin on arrival]

53 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

No. Ppeople seeking  validation congregate together to enable the promotion of their unfounded claims. It gives them comfort.

You people promote and cling to the claims of "immunity" without any factual basis that it is exists. It is a cult of ignorance.

 

You are afraid and desperate for reassurance. If there was inherent long term immunity to a corona virus, we would not be infected by corona viruses after an infection. The common colds that we  all experience every year would  not occur.

Yes, there are antibodies present in patients who recover. That is part of the mechanism of recovery. However, there is no evidence that these antibodies and the associated immunity persist over time. What is your evidence that the immunity is there?

 

Well this Swiss Immunologist has been saying for quite some time that there is significant immunity. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. There is a youtube interview of his from July 28 which you can find online :

 

https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809

 

Actually there have been a few studies lately (this August)that show immunity will likely last for years, a vaccine will likely work, if developed, and that even people who have no antibodies and mild or asymptomatic cases will likely have long term immunity based on T-Cell and B-cell memory. We have been grossly misinformed by overly cautious statements by health care officials who are leading people to believe that this virus doesn't act like any other viruses of it's ilk.

 

First study discussed was from the University of Washington based on an outbreak on a fishing vessel in which 104 people out of 122 were infected (1 with a serious case-slightly less than 1% serious). Three on the vessel had antibodies and none were infected or developed symptoms on the trip. 101 of the 104 infected developed antibodies within 50 days of their infection (most much quicker than that).

 

Second study out of Stockholm discussed T-Cell memory. It showed that people with no antibodies and who even had mild or asymptomatic cases, developed specific T-Cell markers for Sars-Cov 2 and had robust t-cell memory and believe that people with additional exposure to the disease will likely not have a severe case; also means a vaccine will likely be effective in the future. Although not discussed in the video the Swedish medical authorities have stated that based on T-cell studies in Stockholm, they believe 30% have these specific t-cells and from this study believe that this form of immunity will likely last for years similar to the original SARS disease.

 

Third Study from the University of Washington studied people with mild symptoms and the development of antibodies and b-cell and t-cell memory. It showed that exposure to the virus resulted in rapid t-cell replication and that memory b-cells expressed antibodies to the virus.

 

All 3 studies showed the same thing, that regardless of the severity of the disease that there was likely to be long lived immunity to the disease. People either get antibodies or t and b-cell memory specific to the virus. Herd immunity is likely achievable and that vaccines, if developed, are likely to be effective. People with good t-cell response will likely not get a severe case now or in the future and should have long term immunity of some kind.

 

Even if no vaccine ends up being developed some kind of herd immunity should eventually take place even if the disease is endemic.

 

These were all discussed in a YouTube video by Dr John Turner on August 18,2020 who provides links to the studies.

 

Now why do you why do you want to believe that there is no immunity?

Edited September 6, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[Meat Pie 47]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

I believe they call it 'immunity', a mechanism whereby once you've 'had it' you don't 'get it' again.

 

If you don't 'get it' again then you don't 'spread it' again, etc.

 

If many people in an area have this 'immunity' then it doesn't spread that much but it will continue to spread in areas of low or no immunity.

Wrong a guy in Singapore had it twice in 3 months

[vermin on arrival]

25 minutes ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Wrong a guy in Singapore had it twice in 3 months

See the 1st study in my above post. In a fishing vessel in which 104 of 122 were infected, the 3 who had antibodies prior to boarding the vessel did not fall ill.

 

In addition, having immunity could also mean that if you get infected again your case will likely not be as severe. Was he asymptomatic? Did he have a severe case?

Edited September 6, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[tribalfusion001]

2988 new cases today up from 1800 ish yesterday, not sure where these are coming from. I smell further restrictions coming and furlough is coming to an end, the protests are springing up all over the UK. I reckon limiting of gatherings and masks in the street, I think the government are feeling threatened by the anti lockdown protests.

[Kinnock]

16 minutes ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Wrong a guy in Singapore had it twice in 3 months

One guy.  That's it, case proven, nothing to discuss further.

 

Unless immunity to viruses happens to be complex area of course.

[Davo369]

My ring piece is having a second wave from that Indian food I had

From last night????

[tgw]

2 hours ago, scammed said:

yes that is exactly what statistics so far is telling us

I disagree. statistics tell us that Sweden already had the second wave, it followed the first one closely. You can actually see it on the graph.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[vermin on arrival]

22 minutes ago, tgw said:

I disagree. statistics tell us that Sweden already had the second wave, it followed the first one closely. You can actually see it on the graph.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I dunno. Looks like one long wave. Didn't hear any Swedish health care professionals saying they had 2.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[AlexRich]

An Oxford scientist suggested that London may have reached herd immunity at around 20%. It’s also been suggested that newly infected are receiving a low viral load, due to distancing, hand washing and mask wearing. So the body deals with it efficiently, and you therefore have less hospitalisations and deaths.