Korean Found with COVID after Returning from Bangkok

[Don Chance]

As i understand it: 50% have a natural immunity to Covid, 25% will have mild or be asymptotic, 15% will have bad flu and 5-10% will have serious problems and need to be hospitalized.

So you can't hide 20% of the cases, they will go to the hospital to be tested, have problems breathing etc. You can't about your hospitals overflowing with patients.

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

I think people need to be truly honest with themselves - and ask "do I really understand epidemiology, testing technology and viruses, or have I just Googled all my information"?

 

Testing for viruses is not an exact science, and the technogy is fairly new and still developing.  When I was involved in infection control in the 80's and 90's, viral outbreaks were identified from symptoms and by a process of elimination by testing for bacteria.  A few highly specialist medical schools could try to identify a virus using it's appearance under electron microscopy (hence the name 'Coronavirus') but it was very hit and miss.  Then test kits started to appear that react to indicators, but they are not totally reliable - the type used by the UK Government for example is known to have a high false positive error, which may explain the high case numbers but low fatality rate in UK.

 

PCR testing can be more reliable, but it's expensive and slower.

All the testing in the UK, the drive through centres and at hospitals is all utilising RT PCR, the results take >24 hrs.

 

As I understand it, none of the UK stats are derived from anything other than than Covid-19 RT-PCR tests.

 

Antibody tests are also available, but privately and are not known to be reliable. The results of these tests to check is someone has had Covid-19 are not reported as part of the national Covid-19 numbers. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

In addition, viruses are just strands of DNA in a bag, they are not really alive like bacteria or parasites - and how a person responds to a virus has many variables related to their own DNA, their health and their age.

 

So when we hear a person has been found to be positive, it could be a false positive, or the person may have contracted COVID months ago, and they are still positive because of how their body responded to the virus.  It really means very little to ssy a particular person is positive.  They may have no symptoms and have stopped shedding the virus weeks ago.

Absolutely agree. Unfortunately those who are making the decision seem unable to understand this. 

 

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

There are some viruses that people can catch, recover, but it's in their system forever ..... Herpes for example.

 

It looks like none of the 900+ contacts of the DJ caught it ..... so possibly another case.

 

At the same time it's just not credible that Thailand is a little COVID-free oasis in a pandemic world.  So some people are exposed to it, may never even get sick, but may test positive.  So what?

Or the Virus has swept through Thailand months ago and no one really noticed except a few senior doctors who highlighted increased viral pneumonia cases. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

How do we thing it would look if we tested every traveller for flu, Herpes, Chickenpox?  The global response to COVID has been an economic tragedy, with hysteria whipped up by the media, and spread by born-again virologists who's only qualification is access to Google.

Agreed. 

 

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

From the viewpoint of a normal, healthy person under the age of 70, it really is no diffetent to a seasonal flu outbreak.  And when people quote the number of deaths - what are they comparing it to?  Is a hundred thousand high, a million? Or is that normal for an epidemic in a large country?  Certainly many more people die of common water or food borne diseases per day than of COVID.  We really need to stop spouting nonesense stats and Keep calm and carry on.

Again, agreed. In perspective Covid-19 is no more serious than so many other illnesses and diseases with live with. 

 

The threat is over - the higher SARS-CoV-1 (10%) or MERS (30%) Case Fatality Rates did not exist as modelled, worst case scenarios did not happen. Fatality rates were equivlant to a major influenza outbreak - still a serious issue, but we didn’t react with such panic to the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in 2009.

[richard_smith237]

1 minute ago, Don Chance said:

As i understand it: 50% have a natural immunity to Covid, 25% will have mild or be asymptotic, 15% will have bad flu and 5-10% will have serious problems and need to be hospitalized.

So you can't hide 20% of the cases, they will go to the hospital to be tested, have problems breathing etc. You can't about your hospitals overflowing with patients.

 

One of the ways in which Covid-19 has been misreported around the world is the failure to report ‘serious cases’.

 

Also, ‘died with Covid-19’ has been used very poorly, when 'died due to complications resulting from Covid-19’ would be far more accurate and would prevent those 'who’ve been eaten by an alligator' from being counted in the stats...i.e. those with stage 4 cancer, brain haemorrhage etc who also had Covid-19 (asymptomatic) impacted the stats - CDC announced 94% of Covid-19 deaths involved comorbidity, of those we have no idea how many died as a direct result of Covid-19... i.e. 'died due to complications resulting from Covid-19’

 

 

One of the best ways to measure and report Covid-19 would be Covid-19 cases which require admission to a hospital for treatment. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

Better stop those Thais flying off for holidays or the foreign countries will really see that Thailand Covid is complete fake when they all get tested positive

[Don Chance]

6 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

One of the best ways to measure and report Covid-19 would be Covid-19 cases which require admission to a hospital for treatment. 

 

Even mild cases or asymptomatic cases have long term damage to their hearts.

"One study examined the cardiac MRIs of 100 people who had recovered from Covid-19 and compared them to heart images from 100 people who were similar but not infected with the virus. Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation."

[SVC Porter]

20 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

One of the ways in which Covid-19 has been misreported around the world is the failure to report ‘serious cases’.

 

Also, ‘died with Covid-19’ has been used very poorly, when 'died due to complications resulting from Covid-19’ would be far more accurate and would prevent those 'who’ve been eaten by an alligator' from being counted in the stats...i.e. those with stage 4 cancer, brain haemorrhage etc who also had Covid-19 (asymptomatic) impacted the stats - CDC announced 94% of Covid-19 deaths involved comorbidity, of those we have no idea how many died as a direct result of Covid-19... i.e. 'died due to complications resulting from Covid-19’

 

 

One of the best ways to measure and report Covid-19 would be Covid-19 cases which require admission to a hospital for treatment. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely this!  In my hometown here we had four deaths in our local hospital this week.  The media reported 'Four people die with COVID in local hospital'. Of course when you read through the report you find in small print....'COVID was not the cause of death'. Shamefull reporting!

 

I've been trying to jump the hoops still to get out to LOS and take up a job.....this week was the last straw.....to get a Covid Test I was directed to either Stranraer or Carlisle!  I live in N. Ireland.

 

This nonsense coupled with the belief that LOS is about to go really tits up has completely put me off.....

[AbeNormal]

anybody "herd" of immunity  

 

There is a total lack of any data from Thailand, it's a big void of no testing and no reporting, yes they test people arriving from other countries and proudly report it, as for the rest, they simply don't know

[Kinnock]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

All the testing in the UK, the drive through centres and at hospitals is all utilising RT PCR, the results take >24 hrs.

 

As I understand it, none of the UK stats are derived from anything other than than Covid-19 RT-PCR tests.

 

Antibody tests are also available, but privately and are not known to be reliable. The results of these tests to check is someone has had Covid-19 are not reported as part of the national Covid-19 numbers. 

 

 

Absolutely agree. Unfortunately those who are making the decision seem unable to understand this. 

 

Or the Virus has swept through Thailand months ago and no one really noticed except a few senior doctors who highlighted increased viral pneumonia cases. 

 

 

Agreed. 

 

Again, agreed. In perspective Covid-19 is no more serious than so many other illnesses and diseases with live with. 

 

The threat is over - the higher SARS-CoV-1 (10%) or MERS (30%) Case Fatality Rates did not exist as modelled, worst case scenarios did not happen. Fatality rates were equivlant to a major influenza outbreak - still a serious issue, but we didn’t react with such panic to the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in 2009.

I may have misunderstood the report in The Lancet as I'm not familiar with the test methods - but this is why I thought UK tests may be impacted by false positive results .....

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31830-4/fulltext?dgcid=hubspot_email_newsletter_tlcoronavirus20&utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=94519988&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8XYKErmawgg7g3R5M6rapQWK7c8Yhmw1EUxEa9pn3FQnbFMegShPMYlR65XFJcW9TUMt7Zh_LkKxketTK_PC6H0MDbNg&utm_content=94519988&utm_source=hs_email

[Oldie]

Perhaps the Koreans should come to Thailand and do the testing... 

[torturedsole]

My Thai wife [here in UK] has suddenly developed a rash on her chest and I'm quite sure she's now been exposed to C19 but asymptomatic. 

 

It was quite funny as she's been very thorough throughout lockdown in forensically cleaning everything that enters the house and she showed me the rash on her chest that has suddenly developed and I told her that's C19 but she wouldn't have it. I reassured her that it was a sign of C19 and not to worry as probably better to have had it than not.  

 

I also had C19 back in February and the exact same rash appeared near my big toe about two months ago. Treated it with Polysporin and it dropped off within a few weeks.  

 

 

[Crossy]

2 hours ago, torturedsole said:

Treated it with Polysporin and it dropped off within a few weeks.  

 

Your toe?? ????

 

[Grumpy John]

4 hours ago, Don Chance said:

As i understand it: 50% have a natural immunity to Covid, 25% will have mild or be asymptotic, 15% will have bad flu and 5-10% will have serious problems and need to be hospitalized.

So you can't hide 20% of the cases, they will go to the hospital to be tested, have problems breathing etc. You can't about your hospitals overflowing with patients.

Go to a public hospital any day of the week except weekends and you will find they are overflowing in the outpatients department anyway.  The bigger the hospital the bigger the crowd.   Now I will say not all people are sick, a lot of people have a friend with them.  When we take mar to the public hospital in Phitsanulok if we get there about 7 am her ticket number will be 100+.  So, if there was an extra 2 or 3 people....what's the difference?  Multiply 2 or 3 over 70 provinces daily x 5 days and you have 700 to 1050.  Week in and week out it starts to add up!

[SpanishExpat]

10 hours ago, JHicks said:

 I guess the number of people leaving Thailand and getting tested is in the thousands, so you would expect one or two false positives here and there. Until they find the source of the DJ's infection it's pretty much moot anyway.

I just can speak for mainland Europe. No one is forced to get tested, as Thailand belongs to the risk-free countries. That’s the explanation why there are no news. If there was a mandatory test, I am quite sure there would be a few positive results in Europe.

 

Anyway...Thailand is super safe! They are surely not-Covid free, but don’t have hundrets of undetected cases with heavy symptoms.

Edited September 9, 2020 by SpanishExpat

[Matzzon]

Everyone knows that Thailand is not 100% Covid free. That is just not possible. Still they have been delivering one of the best results in the world. If that was untrue, much more stories like this would have been seen and heard. Maybe better be happy with that, then complain. For everyone else, there is always Brazil, USA, UK and South Africa. 

[FarFlungFalang]

4 hours ago, AbeNormal said:

anybody "herd" of immunity  

 

There is a total lack of any data from Thailand, it's a big void of no testing and no reporting, yes they test people arriving from other countries and proudly report it, as for the rest, they simply don't know

Did Thailand's low testing numbers alter the amount of people that caught the virus?

[spiekerjozef]

All these returnees suddenly have it.

I will go nowhere near an airplane these new normal days....

[pacovl46]

Don’t you just love it when the nay sayers know-it-alls get proven wrong?! ????

[rtco]

Maybe he went to one of that DJ's sessions who got the virus?

[Jeffr2]

They've said it's possible the virus is still in Thailand.  Just no new cases detected:

 

There is still a small possibility of Covid-19 infection in Thailand. “Though this possibility is slim because Thailand has been free of local Covid-19 for more than 80 days, it can still happen,” he said.

 

• There is a possibility that the patient has been infected from overseas, and they may carry a small amount of genetic viral material that is difficult to detect. “After the patient arrives in Thailand, they may test negative at first but turn positive later as was seen at the start of the outbreak,” he said.

 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1178639-14-day-quarantine-may-not-be-enough-says-virologist/

[bartender100]

Thailand can't hide from COVID-19, it will come here just like everywhere else and they are just delaying the inevitable. Might as well be like Sweden and get it over with. Countries need the herd.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8716335/Only-1-3-Swedes-tested-coronavirus-disease-19-height-pandemic.html

 

IMHO

[PingRoundTheWorld]

Amnesty is ending soon - all those foreigners arriving at their home countries testing positive for Thai-acquired Covid-19.... Another lockdown by EOM? lol

[Stargeezr]

My questions are, as follows.  This Korean was at the airport in Bangkok right?

  Was he the only foreigner at the airport?  Did he use the washroom or sit at a restaurant

or lounge?  Did he shop at any of the shops at the airport, where other travellers may

have shopped. Other business people, politicians, or essential service workers who are

travelling about and may have been infected may have occupied the same space at the

airport? Well, surprise, surprise.  said Forest Gump. 

Geezer

[hotchilli]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

A South Korean man tested positive for the coronavirus disease 2019 after returning from Bangkok,

Must be a misunderstanding

 

[wotsdermatter]

14 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

A South Korean man tested positive for the coronavirus disease 2019 after returning from Bangkok

Maybe, just maybe, Thailand has found a way to boost there export income by developing a new product to export.

'nuf sed.

 

[bodga]

14 hours ago, trucking said:

Airlines are going to have to get serious about cleaning their toilet seats. So many people getting infected whilst sitting on the dunny.

I try not  to  lick them myself, each to their own though

[Bangkok Barry]

12 hours ago, Sheryl said:

They have simply reported that no (or more recently, just 1) cases were identified.

Exactly. No testing means that no cases can be identified. Brilliantly simple system. Cheap too.

[Almer]

14 hours ago, NanLaew said:

Where's the link to any claim by Thailand that they are Covid free?

 

Must bash on, eh?

100days of no reported infection other than in quarantine gives one the impression that Los is/was CV19 free.

The word identified is the link word.

Edited September 10, 2020 by Almer
Addition comment

[Almer]

10 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Exactly. No testing means that no cases can be identified. Brilliantly simple system. Cheap too.

Agreed

[herfiehandbag]

12 hours ago, Kinnock said:

I think people need to be truly honest with themselves - and ask "do I really understand epidemiology, testing technology and viruses, or have I just Googled all my information"?

What, and destroy an entire cottage industry, eliminate an entire internet generation of experts?

 

Seriously (who, moi?) that was one of the best most reasonable posts  I have seen...

Edited September 10, 2020 by herfiehandbag

[richard_smith237]

8 hours ago, Kinnock said:

I may have misunderstood the report in The Lancet as I'm not familiar with the test methods - but this is why I thought UK tests may be impacted by false positive results .....

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31830-4/fulltext?dgcid=hubspot_email_newsletter_tlcoronavirus20&utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=94519988&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8XYKErmawgg7g3R5M6rapQWK7c8Yhmw1EUxEa9pn3FQnbFMegShPMYlR65XFJcW9TUMt7Zh_LkKxketTK_PC6H0MDbNg&utm_content=94519988&utm_source=hs_email

 

As far as I’m aware this article has mixed information which is highly surprising given the source. 

 

The ‘cornerstone’ of the UK’s response is not antibody testing, it is Covid-19 RT-PCR testing - I’ve no idea how the Lancet could get this so wrong. 

 

Antibody testing is commercially available (the two types discussed in the Article: Abbot / Roche Elecsys), but these are only available (or were 6 weeks ago) at private hospitals and clinics - these tests are known to have inconsistent results and are thus not considered reliable - Added to which, they do not identify Covid-19 in a patient, but that a patient may have had Covid-19 at some point in the past.

 

The NHS which has set up national testing and ‘drive through centers’ relies solely on RT-PCR Tests to test for who ‘currently’ has Covid-19.

 

 

 

The article does validate why mass Antibody testing has not been released (because of inaccuracies). Had there been an accurate antibody test, I would like to see mass testing which could identify what proportion of the population has had Covid-19. Unfortunately thats not accurately possible at the moment.