French woman who tested positive for Covid: Detailed timeline announced

[thedemon]

13 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

For current infection, the standard PCR swab test, ie. long cotton bud on back of throat and up each nostril. Has a reported ~2% false -ve rate and a reported ~5% false +ve rate.

 

I think the shonky test kits were the antibody ones that test blood for past infection.

 

A 5% false positive rate may not sound excessive but it depends how the test is being used.

 

If it is used for testing on an apparently high risk individual where any positive result will mean further tests are done thereby reducing the margin of error that's ok.

 

But when used for population wide testing (such as the UK is doing with PCR) and the expected rate of real positives may be as low as 1%, then a false positive rate of 5% means that of all positive results from that testing, 20% will be real and 80% will be false. That renders the resulting data worthless.

[Whale]

9 minutes ago, EricTh said:

This is strange....

 

How did a tourist come in on 30 Sept when it is supposed to be closed for all tourists?

 

........

 

Not a tourist? She was probably a family member of the husband who has a suitable visa OR she has a suitable visa and the husband was family member. What caught my eye was they visited the Embassy immediately after ASQ, a simple tourist or even long stayer would not do that, so I assume it was "business" related in some way. 

[crazygreg44]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Regarding the French lady, there are a number of possibilities: 

- She contracted Covid-19 from elsewhere, as nothing is water tight, even quarantine

- She has a regular cold and exhibits symptoms, the Covid-19 test was a false positive

- She has carried Covid-19 for a few weeks (asymptomatic), she is one of the extremely rare cases where Covid-19 developed outside of the usual window

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

add to the possibilities

 

regarding that the incubation period can be up to 27 days, she could have contracted the Virus in France, way before her flight.

 

The requirement to show a Covid-19 PCR test with a minimum age of 72 hours prior to boarding the flight, could have left an open window between the test and the actual boarding, during which she could have gotten infected.

 

It then only takes a few flaws to occur with the subsequent 2 more tests during the quarantine, to slip through the screens 

[damascase]

25 minutes ago, EricTh said:

 

Aren't everybody supposed to get a Covid free cert in country of origin first?

Only the foreigners; returning Thais do not need a pre-flight Covid test. Doesn’t make sense......

[Whale]

Theres a rumour that she is not French but a dual Thai national but I find it hard to believe that the propaganda machine would be that biased to get that wrong.

[richard_smith237]

6 minutes ago, crazygreg44 said:

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Regarding the French lady, there are a number of possibilities: 

- She contracted Covid-19 from elsewhere, as nothing is water tight, even quarantine

- She has a regular cold and exhibits symptoms, the Covid-19 test was a false positive

- She has carried Covid-19 for a few weeks (asymptomatic), she is one of the extremely rare cases where Covid-19 developed outside of the usual window

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expand  

add to the possibilities

 

regarding that the incubation period can be up to 27 days, she could have contracted the Virus in France, way before her flight.

 

The requirement to show a Covid-19 PCR test with a minimum age of 72 hours prior to boarding the flight, could have left an open window between the test and the actual boarding, during which she could have gotten infected.

 

It then only takes a few flaws to occur with the subsequent 2 more tests during the quarantine, to slip through the screens 

 

Agreed... a Multitude of possibilities.

 

When Thailand is attempting to be ‘water tight’ the smallest of flaws will be highlighted. 

 

----

 

While so many are panicking about 1 case of Covid-19 there are so many other bigger issues to deal with. 

 

All that is truly required to control Covid-19 is to keep the R number (infection spread rate) below 1 in any community.

 

The Covid-19 RT PCR test taken before departure covers the vast majority of cases. 

Careful monitoring of hospital admissions and those with symptoms takes care of the rest. 

 

The world could open back up, but it has tested itself into a panic. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Whale]

11 minutes ago, crazygreg44 said:

add to the possibilities

 

regarding that the incubation period can be up to 27 days, she could have contracted the Virus in France, way before her flight.

 

The requirement to show a Covid-19 PCR test with a minimum age of 72 hours prior to boarding the flight, could have left an open window between the test and the actual boarding, during which she could have gotten infected.

 

It then only takes a few flaws to occur with the subsequent 2 more tests during the quarantine, to slip through the screens 

 

I thinks thats too many what ifs Greg. I am guessing the answer will be the simplest one.

[bodga]

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

An article submitted in the Lancet on September 29 suggests that Covid-19 RT PCR tests (in the UK)  are suspected to have a false positive rate of between 0.8 and 4.0% 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

 

 

 

Obviously those who present symptoms and also test positive fall well below the 0.8 to 4.0% false positive estimate outlined in the medical paper, however, when testing en masse i.e. 200,000 people daily the incidence of false positives could be significant. Significant enough to warrant policy change and further lockdowns when it's unnecessary.

 

Given the information on false positives - any positive test should really be carried out twice to confirm the result. 

 

 

Regarding the French lady, there are a number of possibilities: 

- She contracted Covid-19 from elsewhere, as nothing is water tight, even quarantine

- She has a regular cold and exhibits symptoms, the Covid-19 test was a false positive

- She has carried Covid-19 for a few weeks (asymptomatic), she is one of the extremely rare cases where Covid-19 developed outside of the usual window

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

including her  flight

[richard_smith237]

Just now, Whale said:

Theres a rumour that she is not French but a dual Thai national but I find it hard to believe that the propaganda machine would be that biased to get that wrong.

 

It would be a relief for the xenophobic reporting... 

 

IF the lady in question is both French and Thai, the reality is, legally, in Thailand she is Thai as her Thai Nationality takes precedence.  

 

For the media hysteria, it fits a far better rhetoric - French Woman, rather than Thai woman.... 

 

 

[eisfeld]

3 hours ago, Sharp said:

Although I agree the 70+ figure doesn't match up should be 5.4%

The other age ranges as well. They are all off by two orders of magnitude.

 

Or maybe the missing cases that neither died nor are living are Schroedinger Patients. They are simultaneously dead and alive until their pulse is measured.

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, AbeNormal said:

early on China supplied rapid test kits to various countries including the UK, they were soon deemed useless and inaccurate and were returned to China

Sure bet we did not get a refund for it - you'd think that China should be forced to pay for the entire world's test kits, protection wear and vaccine - but they won't , ther're the only nation making a mint from it

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Her husband and child were negative

Where are they right now is the question everyone should be asking.....

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, Jack Mountain said:

2 Days later sick, too soon!

Many people get sick within 2 to 3 days elsewhere in the world, 14 days would be unusually long, that's why 14 is used for the quarantine.

[ukrules]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

While so many are panicking about 1 case of Covid-19 there are so many other bigger issues to deal with. 

What makes you think anyone's panicking?

[Scot123]

5 hours ago, welovesundaysatspace said:

Please elaborate how that works in detail. Because I believe it’s a load of nonsense: PCR generally is highly reliable and one of the best testing technology that exists in modern diagnostic, and many Covid-19 PCR seem to have sensitivity and specificity rates of up to 99.9%. 

Keep dreaming.

[pennine]

How did she get into BigC who check everyone's temperature before entry?

[PoorSucker]

9 hours ago, finnsk said:

The woman was Covid free after state qurantine, where did she get the infection ? yes in Thailand.

The French embassy? 

[Bangkok Barry]

8 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

An article submitted in the Lancet on September 29 suggests that Covid-19 RT PCR tests (in the UK)  are suspected to have a false positive rate of between 0.8 and 4.0% 

 

A friend has sent me a video report of someone in the UK who, as a test, sent a Covid 19 test back after only soaking the swab in water. It tested positive. The UK really could not have dealt with the pandemic any worse than it has.

[NeoDinosaw]

11 hours ago, Sharp said:

Although I agree the 70+ figure doesn't match up should be 5.4%

and the 50-69  group should be 0.5%

[ChomDo]

Most interesting question left out of the news everywhere: How could she come to Thailand from France as a "tourist". Somethings missing here. If it says "The family left Limoges on Sept 30th and boarded THAI airways TG 933 to Bangkok", they're hardly tourists? The first tourist to be allowed in just arrived from China – and French would probably be the last ones on the list. 

[Sharp]

1 hour ago, NeoDinosaw said:

and the 50-69  group should be 0.5%

Agreed to be honest many things just don't add up to me!

I firmly believe a massive overreaction was instigated and fueled by the MSM.

Imagine the real mortailty stats if they factured in the asymptomatic that never get tested or treated.

 

[Tropicalevo]

8 hours ago, pennine said:

How did she get into BigC who check everyone's temperature before entry?

Friends tell me that Big C was empty today. Tesco Lotus was busy though. ????

[Tropicalevo]

1 hour ago, ChomDo said:

Most interesting question left out of the news everywhere: How could she come to Thailand from France as a "tourist". Somethings missing here. If it says "The family left Limoges on Sept 30th and boarded THAI airways TG 933 to Bangkok", they're hardly tourists? The first tourist to be allowed in just arrived from China – and French would probably be the last ones on the list. 

She was dual Thai/French national  on a repatriation flight according to early reports. (But that does not fit the politics and so the 'French national' is being pushed?)

The 39 Chinese were not tourists. They were a government delegation according to the foreign minister.

Do not believe what TAT tell us.

[hotchilli]

22 hours ago, rooster59 said:

No directives about contact at the retail stores have been announced. 

It would be the same in my area, because there would be no records of who were at those locations at what time, so much for Thai chana tracking still in affect.

[newnative]

22 hours ago, finnsk said:

The woman was Covid free after state qurantine, where did she get the infection ? yes in Thailand.

 

Thai people is not tested regulary, the covid virus can be in the society without anybody want to know it.

 

 

     Your first sentence cannot be proved.  She tested negative on Oct. 11, the eleventh day of quarantine.  That was her second and last test in quarantine.  Had she been tested on the 14th of October, the 14th day of quarantine,  the result might have been positive as incubation can take 14 days or more.  I find it misleading to say '14 Days of Quarantine' when you do the last test on the 11th day and no test on the last day of quarantine.   The disease could still manifest itself on those last 3 days, and, indeed, might be more likely to show up then rather than early in the quarantine, assuming a negative test before a flight.  

[EricTh]

The French woman was not Thai as posted by someone in this forum. Her photo is published in Bangkok Post and she's a real French and not a Thai who holds two passports.

 

She's aged 57 so she could have come in on O-A visa/retirement 

 

But I thought only those countries that are low risk are allowed to enter Thailand?

[Oldie]

On 11/5/2020 at 11:49 PM, EricTh said:

The French woman was not Thai as posted by someone in this forum. Her photo is published in Bangkok Post and she's a real French and not a Thai who holds two passports.

 

She's aged 57 so she could have come in on O-A visa/retirement 

 

But I thought only those countries that are low risk are allowed to enter Thailand?

She is not Thai. And in the meantime Thailand allows tourists from high risk countries to enter. I think there is too much pressure from the tourism industry including the mighty entertainment industry. Here the latest news about this lady :

 

https://www.stickboybkk.com/news/french-woman-discharged-after-recovering-from-covid-19/

[EricTh]

1 hour ago, Oldie said:

She is not Thai. And in the meantime Thailand allows tourists from high risk countries to enter. I think there is too much pressure from the tourism industry including the mighty entertainment industry. Here the latest news about this lady :

 

https://www.stickboybkk.com/news/french-woman-discharged-after-recovering-from-covid-19/

 

It doesn't make sense on how she got the COE to enter in the first place.