Thailand in turmoil the Baht will plummet or not ????

[1FinickyOne]

On 10/29/2020 at 4:44 AM, techietraveller84 said:

now that 2020 and it's extreme unpredictability is almost over.

and what if next year gets even more unpredictable? 

[1FinickyOne]

On 10/29/2020 at 8:33 PM, Cat ji said:

Another sort of "reality show."

I keep waiting for the curtain to go up and all the players come out and take a bow... though the real credit of course goes to the writers... who could have ever written this script? Kudos!!

[1FinickyOne]

ok - sorry for going off topic - market values are determined by a halfway figure between the bets that it is going up and the bets that it is going down... 

 

Whatever you are getting for your pound today is what it is valued at/expected to do in the future... this is the current market value [what people think] tomorrow will be different based on sentiment as well... 

[Mavideol]

On 10/28/2020 at 6:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

With the political situation in Thailand and all the protests what will happen to the Thai baht in the future I know every country is facing turmoil but I would like to know what will happen to the baht   

 

against the UK pound not the Euro or not the dollar only UK pound

 

thanks in advance

 

 

why only the UK pound, currency depreciation/appreciation usually affects all currencies

[Patong2021]

Thailand  baht may weaken, but UK pound will get weaker too, and faster. The  big UK deficit,  weak economy and brexit impact will not strengthen  the UK currency against the Thai baht. Maybe the UK money will strengthen  compared to Zambian Kwacha or  Bangladesh Taka.

[userabcd]

On 10/29/2020 at 11:18 AM, Barnabe said:

That chart means nothing, the pound is not going back to 70 to the baht. Doubtful it falls much further too, most likely it will stay where it is.

Exactly. It was particular special event in 1997 which caused a drop of the baht, not likely to ever happen sgain.

 

 

 

 

[orang37]

I'm betting on unpredictability.

 

~o:37l

[sawadee1947]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

With the political situation in Thailand and all the protests what will happen to the Thai baht in the future I know every country is facing turmoil but I would like to know what will happen to the baht   

 

against the UK pound not the Euro or not the dollar only UK pound

 

thanks in advance

 

 

Better ask what will happen to the UK pound.....!!!!! 

[sawadee1947]

On 10/29/2020 at 2:53 PM, bartender100 said:

Pound will only get stronger as the shackles from the EU are finally off as its already priced in, might take a year or two. IMHO

You're right. That will happen definetely!!!! 

80 millions vs 450 millions. 

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[Ketyo]

Yes, if there is turmoil in Thailand the baht will plummet. But, if there is stability it will do better over the next 5 years than the GBP.

[DUNROAMIN]

For me, currency is like real estate, it works on a ten year cycle, exactly where we are on that 10 year wheel now, maybe half way round? 

[KarenBravo]

On 10/29/2020 at 8:53 PM, bartender100 said:

Pound will only get stronger as the shackles from the EU are finally off as its already priced in, might take a year or two. IMHO

Pound will only get weaker at the sight of Kent turned into a giant truck park and shortages in the shops become obvious. IMHO

[transam]

11 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

You're right. That will happen definetely!!!! 

80 millions vs 450 millions. 

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Hmmm, I thought you were Irish.....???? 

[pagan1]

9 minutes ago, Ketyo said:

Yes, if there is turmoil in Thailand the baht will plummet. But, if there is stability it will do better over the next 5 years than the GBP.

Last time there was a 'little turmoil' in Thailand (2014 coup) the Baht hardly changed against the UKP, 

At the moment I am more concerned that debt, Covid, Brexit and and the bunch of donkeys we have for a government will crash  the UKP

[KhaoNiaw]

On 10/28/2020 at 11:48 PM, RichardColeman said:

Ifar left Biden

"Far left"????

 

Americans are crazy.

[transam]

2 minutes ago, pagan1 said:

Last time there was a 'little turmoil' in Thailand (2014 coup) the Baht hardly changed against the UKP, 

At the moment I am more concerned that debt, Covid, Brexit and and the bunch of donkeys we have for a government will crash  the UKP

Don't worry, Corbyn & co. are history......

[BritManToo]

On 10/28/2020 at 6:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

against the UK pound

Pound will be worse ....... they've just locked everyone up at home for a month.

It's a total economic disaster in the UK.

[sungod]

On 10/28/2020 at 6:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

With the political situation in Thailand and all the protests what will happen to the Thai baht in the future I know every country is facing turmoil but I would like to know what will happen to the baht   

 

against the UK pound not the Euro or not the dollar only UK pound

 

thanks in advance

 

 

No your price of Leo with not get cheaper.

Edited November 1, 2020 by sungod

[peterpop]

All asking the wrong question, that is ...When is a certain person going to move back to Thailand?

[hotchilli]

In relation to the pound GBP you have to wait for the end of the year and see what happens with Brexit, that will have the most impact with any exchange rates. I don't see the Thai baht moving much.

The dollar again depends on the election result which can affect the pound/baht exchange rates.

[khunPer]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

I would like to know what will happen to the baht

From many years of experience, and the always crystal clear light of hindsight, I realized that it's difficult to predict, especially about the future...

[Leaver]

Will have to see how Thai banks are situated with defaults that are on an unprecedented scale.  

 

The smoke and mirrors the Thai banks are using to hide non performing loans will not hold up.

 

If the Thai economy starts to wobble, the baht could take a hit, but the GBP is in a weak position right now with another lock down just announced, and Brexit looming.    

[mrfill]

6 hours ago, robblok said:

Yes will take a few years to see the destruction Brexit did then the expats will be crying about being wrong. 

or they will drone on about how they knew it was going to happen and they never really supported it. They lie to save face. Sound familiar?

[Mavideol]

12 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Joe Biden has been in politics 47 years, and was a Vice President.  Trump basically put to him that here he is now promising things, but asked him why he didn't deliver when he was in office. 

since when does a VP can deliver anything, what did Pence deliver....if Biden  didn't do anything in 47 years why was elected over and over. As for Trump being a businessman, please tell us what business deals did he do, no need to tell about the bankruptcies and you agree with his stance in China trade whereby the US citizens are paying the import duties, sure I agree with being hard on China trade but not making a country's citizens paying for the added import duties, there are many different ways of doing it but absolutely not the Trump way

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

please tell us exactly what he did positively for the US.

Like I said, it's not about "positive" policy.  It's about how he said if you vote me in, I will do XYZ.  He delivered on a lot of it, and it's what the people voted for.  

 

3 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

he did so good that the US  lost all credibility

The USA lost all credibility decades ago. 

 

Their foreign policy, particularly Middle East foreign policy, was the cause, which went a long way to creating global terrorism.

 

Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld have a lot to answer for.  They sold the world a lie with Saddam's non existent weapons of mass destruction.     

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

sure I agree with being hard on China trade but not making a country's citizens paying for the added import duties, there are many different ways of doing it but absolutely not the Trump way

What way would you suggest?

 

5 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

if Biden  didn't do anything in 47 years why was elected over and over.

His son, Hunter 'the bagman" Biden, might be the reason.  ????

 

You do know Joe appears to be in the early stages of dementia.  In the second debate he was often lost for words, and was only reading from notes.  Recently, he called Trump "George" on two occasions.  Biden was probably lucky Trump interjected so much in the first debate, otherwise Biden's health may have been exposed.  

 

I actually think The USA would be a better place today, and Trump would not have been elected, if Sanders was allowed to run against Trump, but it was not to be the case.   

[Bangkok Barry]

What happens in Thailand has zero effect on the Baht. The country has gone through countless coups, street riots and burning of shopping malls, shutting down of the main international airport by protesters, and all that's happened is that the Baht has gone higher. The only thing in the past 30 years that has affected the Baht was when Thailand launched the 1997 Asian financial crisis, from which it has more than recovered.

 

What affects the Baht is what happens to the US$.

[Leaver]

7 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

What happens in Thailand has zero effect on the Baht. The country has gone through countless coups, street riots and burning of shopping malls, shutting down of the main international airport by protesters, and all that's happened is that the Baht has gone higher. The only thing in the past 30 years that has affected the Baht was when Thailand launched the 1997 Asian financial crisis, from which it has more than recovered.

 

What affects the Baht is what happens to the US$.

The US recently put Thailand on notice that they were currency manipulators.  Whether they are, or not, is of little consequence to those that are considering Thailand as a retirement destination.  

 

Of course, Thailand doesn't care about retired expats, but you can expect expat numbers here to decline in the near future, along with western tourists.  

 

There's a strong baht, and then there's n artificially strong baht.  Both repel the afore mentioned tourists / expats.  

[maqui]

On 10/28/2020 at 12:30 PM, nomad2019 said:

With the political situation in Thailand and all the protests what will happen to the Thai baht in the future I know every country is facing turmoil but I would like to know what will happen to the baht   

Short-term? Probably not much, or else it would have happened some months ago. Anyone whose crystal ball can make accurate short-term predictions would have set up his ownnhedge fund and delegate TV posts to a swarm of bikini-clad executive assistants.

Long-term: The THB will certainly grow stronger in future years

Thailand pursues a beggar-thy-neighbour economic policy: high trade surpluses, helped by high customs tariffs that shield its national economy from more competitive imports. That was an idea hatched 500 years ago, under the powdered wigs at the courts of Elizabeth I and Louis XIV. By exporting more than your country imports, collect as much coin as possible from those grubby foreigners so that the local elite can invest in fancy castles and luxurious coaches. 

But this results in a permanent trade surplus, in Thailand even in summer 2020.

 

Thailand's trade surplus increased to USD 2.23 billion in September of 2020 from USD 1.28 billion in the same month the prior year but less than market estimates of a USD 3.55 billion surplus. This marked the eighth straight month of trade surplus, as exports fell by 3.86 percent, to USD 19.62 billion while imports dropped at a faster 9.08 percent to USD 17.39 billion. Considering the first nine months of the year, the trade surplus jumped to USD 20.62 billion from USD 8.16 billion in the same period of 2019

Foreigners that buy from Thai companies need to change their local currency to THB. This increases demand for THB. So the exchange rate of THB will rise relative to USD, EUR, GBP. The Thai exporters could accept payments in foreign currency. But to pay their own bills to other Thai suppliers, they would have to exchange the foreign currency into THB on their own. And their managers and shareholders would want THB to buy their next luxury condo or a Mercedes for wife no. 3. And they will have to pay taxes in THB to fund the army.

As long as Thai government policy is focused on exports while making imports expensive, the THB will be under pressure to appreciate. Like China´s economic strategy of the past 2 - 3 decades.

When tourists come back, perhaps in 2022, they will contribute to the pressure: they will bring more foreign currency that will never leave Thailand because these Euros, GBP or USD will magically be transformed into empty bottles, medicine for sick water buffalos, massage services, bar fines and slowly decaying condos built above demand. After a decade or two, when the THB has become too expensive, the trade surplus will subside. That may be at a rate of 30 THB per GBP and 20 per USD. Perhaps less if Thai exporters struggle to remain competitive if their currency becomes 10% more expensive. 

 

 

 

[Chivas]

On 10/28/2020 at 11:53 AM, Salerno said:

 

Asking the wrong question; you should be looking at what the pound sterling is likely to do against the US$. That is what determines the rate against the Bhat.

 

50% correct

 

(Sterling/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht)

Edited November 1, 2020 by Chivas