Staggering early vote turnout boosts hopes for Biden in Texas

By Joseph Ax and Brad Brooks

 

FILE PHOTO: A person carries a Biden/Harris flag and a Black Lives Matter flag while people wait in line to cast their ballots for the upcoming presidential election as early voting begins in Houston, Texas, U.S., October 13, 2020. REUTERS/Go Nakamura/File Photo

 

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Less than a week before Election Day, Joe Biden is tantalizingly close to a prize that has eluded generations of Democratic presidential candidates: Texas.

 

Public opinion polls show Biden and Republican President Donald Trump effectively tied in the Lone Star State. They also suggest the former vice president is leading among those helping to set its staggering early vote totals.

 

As of Tuesday, nearly 8 million Texans had cast ballots, approaching 90% of the entire 2016 vote - a higher percentage than any state in the country, according to the U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida.

 

Trump appears to have the edge with voters planning to cast ballots on Nov. 3, according to polls, which also show him improving his standing among Hispanics in Texas, a huge constituency, mirroring modest gains he has made with that demographic nationally since 2016.

 

Texans do not register by party, which makes it difficult to say with certainty who is leading in early voting.

 

A Biden win in Texas, which hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for president since 1976, would end any chance of Trump's re-election.

 

The Democrat's campaign has been cautious not to lose its focus on the battleground states, however. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton was criticized for miscalculating by spending time in Republican states late in the campaign only to lose seemingly solid Democratic states to Trump.

 

Less than a week before Election Day, Joe Biden is tantalizingly close to a prize that has eluded generations of Democratic presidential candidates: Texas. This report produced by Zachary Goelman.

 

"We've been really focused on our top six states," said Jenn Ridder, the campaign's national states director, referring to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. "But in these last 10 days, if we can do a little bit to put (other states) over the edge, we're going to take that opportunity."

 

Biden's running mate, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris, will visit Texas on Friday, and billionaire Michael Bloomberg plans to spend $15 million in Texas and Ohio in a last-minute bid to flip both Republican-leaning states.

 

The campaign's reluctance to go all-in has frustrated some Texas Democrats, including Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke, who both ran for their party's 2020 presidential nomination.

 

"They've invested close to zero dollars in the state of Texas, and they're doing this well," O'Rourke told reporters last week. "Imagine if they invested some real dollars."

 

EARLY VOTES

Texas added a week of early voting to ease crowds on Election Day in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Harris County, which includes Houston and has become a Democratic stronghold in recent years, has seen more than 1.1 million votes already.

 

But early voting is surging in all corners of the state, including Republican areas like Denton County, near Dallas, as well as Democratic centers like San Antonio's Bexar County. Both counties have already surpassed their total votes cast in 2016.

 

Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, conducted a poll from Oct. 13-20 with the University of Houston that showed Biden leading among those who had already voted by a 59% to 39% margin. But Trump led by a similar amount among those who planned to vote on Nov. 3.

 

"Democrats are clearly dominating the early turnout," Jones said. "The pivotal issue for Republicans is whether they can get their voters to turn out on Election Day."

 

BLUE SHIFT?

Besides the early vote, there are signs that Texas' shift toward the Democratic Party is not a mirage.

 

Trump and Biden have been close in the state polls all year, and Democratic and Republican candidates are fiercely contesting dozens of congressional and state legislative races.

 

As in other parts of the country, Trump has seen his poll numbers erode in Texas' rapidly diversifying suburbs. That could have calamitous effects on down-ballot Republicans, said Jones.

 

Biden has made gains among independent voters, who make up roughly 10% of the state's electorate, according to James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.

 

An October poll conducted by Henson's organization found Biden outperforming Trump among independents, 45% to 37%. In 2016, Clinton lost the same group by nearly 30 percentage points.

 

Democrats also point to more than 3 million newly registered voters in the state, many of whom moved to Texas from predominantly Democratic states.

 

Rebecca Acuna, Biden's Texas campaign director, noted that the early voters include close to a million people who have never voted in a presidential election, many younger and more diverse voters who likely lean Democratic.

 

"We have every reason to believe that Texas is a tossup," Acuna said.

 

The Trump campaign, citing its own internal analysis, asserted the president is ahead by hundreds of thousands of votes among early ballots. Trump won Texas by a nine-point margin in 2016.

 

In recent days, Trump has tried to hurt Biden with the state's dominant oil and gas industry by playing up comments he made at last week's debate about the need to transition eventually from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.

 

"Texas voters recognize Biden's radical anti-energy agenda will destroy the state's economy," Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Cotten said.

 

Some Texans weren't buying it, however.

 

Chase Lowe, a 35-year-old sales executive in Austin who considers himself an independent, has skipped presidential elections in the past because he was skeptical how much either party could do for the average middle-class American.

 

"My thoughts this year have completely changed," said Lowe, who said he will vote for Biden. "Trump is just nasty for the country. He stokes divisiveness, and it feels like we're in a time of hatred."

 

(Reporting by Joseph Ax in Princeton, New Jersey, and Brad Brooks in Houston; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Sonya Hepinstall)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-10-29

 

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Good we are a better country and deserve a better president than trump 

A stiff breeze  would boost his hope as much. ????

 

Biden is done stick a fork in him it will come out clean.  The Dems for better or worse have once again shot themselves in their own foot by putting forth such a candidate as this that none want.

 

To make matters worse his running mate folks would want as president even less. The US Population know with Joe if a miracle occurred & he was elected he would most likely not last the 4 years making Kamala president....THAT is a very scary thought

15 minutes ago, Tug said:

Good we are a better country and deserve a better president than trump 

When your $ and share exchange plummets when Biden wins - and he will - you may regret installing a left based politician.

 

I can't say I'm a big fan of trump, but the other lot are so far the other way that it will be just as bad.

 

There's no middle ground in the USA - maybe that's the issue

 

5 minutes ago, meechai said:

A stiff breeze  would boost his hope as much. ????

 

Biden is done stick a fork in him it will come out clean.

The Dems for better or worse have once again shot themselves in their own foot by putting forth such a candidate as this that none want.

 

To make matters worse his running mate folks would want as president even less. The US Population know with Joe if a miracle occurred

& he was elected he would most likely not last the 4 years making Kamala president....THAT is a very scary thought

Well I suppose that any fork inserted into Mr Trump would be extremely unlikely to come out clean it seems that everything he touches is soiled!

Texans can look proudly at the big beautiful wall between their state and Mexico. I still remember the day with pride when the Mexican president signed the cheque to pay for it.

Trumps healthcare plan, or Trumpcare, has helped millions of Texans get coverage.  Trump said Covid would disappear in the warmer weather and it did. 

The economy is soaring.

Promises made. Promises kept. Four more years.

1 hour ago, webfact said:

 

Texans do not register by party, which makes it difficult to say with certainty who is leading in early voting.

Sorta contradicts the Reuter's headline..."unbiased" media cheering for Biden?

 

Staggering early vote turnout boosts hopes for Biden in Texas

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Democrats also point to more than 3 million newly registered voters in the state, many of whom moved to Texas from predominantly Democratic states.

That's how you turn a state from red to blue.  You institute such horrible policies in blue states which then drive even liberals out.  Those liberals migrate to red states which are run much better and are therefore attractive  But the liberals end up bringing all their bad policies with them and destroy the red state.  Don't believe me?  Look at Colorado.  Just talked to a friend of mine over the weekend whose been living in Colorado for almost 40 years and he's described how badly the state has changed.

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

When your $ and share exchange plummets when Biden wins - and he will - you may regret installing a left based politician.

 

I can't say I'm a big fan of trump, but the other lot are so far the other way that it will be just as bad.

 

There's no middle ground in the USA - maybe that's the issue

 

The stock market isent the whole economy and it tanked big time today it was a slaughter also keep in mind what the Obama Biden administration inherited from bush rember?i do and they got us going again till trump wrecked it again with his tax cuts to the rich that’s the money you see sloshing around in the stock market imo no sir I trust TEAM Biden to stop the bleeding not trump 

21 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Sorta contradicts the Reuter's headline..."unbiased" media cheering for Biden?

 

Staggering early vote turnout boosts hopes for Biden in Texas

Early voting favors Biden, so the headline is correct. And again nonsense against media, must be hard keeping such nonsense up.

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

When your $ and share exchange plummets when Biden wins - and he will - you may regret installing a left based politician.

 

I can't say I'm a big fan of trump, but the other lot are so far the other way that it will be just as bad.

 

There's no middle ground in the USA - maybe that's the issue

 

I’ll take you at your word you are not a fan of big Trump, and I’ll take your post as an indication that you haven’t seen WS reaction to this election.

 

A return to rational government, an end to losing pointless ‘trade wars’ and overt market manipulation is on its way.

6 minutes ago, Tippaporn said:

That's how you turn a state from red to blue.  You institute such horrible policies in blue states which then drive even liberals out.  Those liberals migrate to red states which are run much better and are therefore attractive  But the liberals end up bringing all their bad policies with them and destroy the red state.  Don't believe me?  Look at Colorado.  Just talked to a friend of mine over the weekend whose been living in Colorado for almost 40 years and he's described how badly the state has changed.

Especially that horrible California the 5th largest economy on the planet the folks migrate to red states because with the money they made in California and other blue states goes much farther in the depressed red states hopefully with their success they can help in those depressed states become more successful and egalitarian in the future 

7 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Early voting favors Biden, so the headline is correct. And again nonsense against media, must be hard keeping such nonsense up.

Just saying so makes it true?

18 minutes ago, Tippaporn said:

That's how you turn a state from red to blue.  You institute such horrible policies in blue states which then drive even liberals out.  Those liberals migrate to red states which are run much better and are therefore attractive  But the liberals end up bringing all their bad policies with them and destroy the red state.  Don't believe me?  Look at Colorado.  Just talked to a friend of mine over the weekend whose been living in Colorado for almost 40 years and he's described how badly the state has changed.

This is becoming a real issue in many states...people fleeing the high taxes, government incompetence, and social engineering in California but bringing the politics that caused all these problems to their new states. 

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

This is becoming a real issue in many states...people fleeing the high taxes, government incompetence, and social engineering in California but bringing the politics that caused all these problems to their new states. 

Yes, let's keep those nasty immigrants out.

Until all Voting is completed in all precincts, districts and States, there should never be one report about how this affects that person or, how it effects this person.  In my view all this reporting is nothing but pure speculation, and all it truly does is disenfranchise voters who have yet to vote, in fact it keeps some from voting as they feel that there vote won't count anyway because a preconceived victor is already being touted in any race.

4 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Yes, let's keep those nasty immigrants out.

The best that can be done is scarring them off by open Constitutional carrying and triggering them by planting American flags on front lawns ????????????

6 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Just saying so makes it true?

Denying it doesn’t make it not true.

 

High turnout is always god news for Democrats, it’s why Republican administrations put so much effort into gerrymandering and vote suppression.

 

 

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Until all Voting is completed in all precincts, districts and States, there should never be one report about how this affects that person or, how it effects this person.  In my view all this reporting is nothing but pure speculation, and all it truly does is disenfranchise voters who have yet to vote, in fact it keeps some from voting as they feel that there vote won't count anyway because a preconceived victor is already being touted in any race.

 But your fine with slowing the post and limiting polling stations in Democrat supporting counties?!

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Denying it doesn’t make it not true.

 

High turnout is always god news for Democrats, it’s why Republican administrations put so much effort into gerrymandering and vote suppression.

 

 

The article was about early voting...not high turnout. It seems to me members of either party may vote early.

3 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The article was about early voting...not high turnout. It seems to me members of either party may vote early.

Really? Did you skip the part where it said that the number of votes already cast is approaching 90% of the 2016 total?

11 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The best that can be done is scarring them off by open Constitutional carrying and triggering them by planting American flags on front lawns ????????????

You're late to the party, elected officials in red states have decided long ago that voter suppression is the way to go.

16 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Until all Voting is completed in all precincts, districts and States, there should never be one report about how this affects that person or, how it effects this person.  In my view all this reporting is nothing but pure speculation, and all it truly does is disenfranchise voters who have yet to vote, in fact it keeps some from voting as they feel that there vote won't count anyway because a preconceived victor is already being touted in any race.

So what to do about the electoral college, since that is making preconceived victors in many states.

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Really? Did you skip the part where it said that the number of votes already cast is approaching 90% of the 2016 total?

Do you know what "early voting" means...a lot of people voted early. It doesn't mean anything about what the final voter turnout will be.

18 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Until all Voting is completed in all precincts, districts and States, there should never be one report about how this affects that person or, how it effects this person.  In my view all this reporting is nothing but pure speculation, and all it truly does is disenfranchise voters who have yet to vote, in fact it keeps some from voting as they feel that there vote won't count anyway because a preconceived victor is already being touted in any race.

 

That's the whole point of it. The left wing media trying to affect the outcome of the vote.

 

It's the reason that the avid readers of such left wing media (and I include lefty social media platforms like Twitter) are always so shocked when their guy doesn't win. They've believed the hype they read in their echo chambers and get a shock when they are introduced to reality.

 

Brexit, Trump and the huge majority that Boris got in 2019 are excellent examples of this. I suspect the same thing will happen again next week.

6 minutes ago, stevenl said:

You're late to the party, elected officials in red states have decided long ago that voter suppression is the way to go.

Yes, if those actions don't send them fleeing back to the coasts, then preventing voter fraud becomes especially important.

5 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Yes, if those actions don't send them fleeing back to the coasts, then preventing voter fraud becomes especially important.

Because all those high tech left leaning voters hsve something to fear?

10 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Yes, if those actions don't send them fleeing back to the coasts, then preventing voter fraud becomes especially important.

What voter fraud?

19 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

That's the whole point of it. The left wing media trying to affect the outcome of the vote.

 

It's the reason that the avid readers of such left wing media (and I include lefty social media platforms like Twitter) are always so shocked when their guy doesn't win. They've believed the hype they read in their echo chambers and get a shock when they are introduced to reality.

 

Brexit, Trump and the huge majority that Boris got in 2019 are excellent examples of this. I suspect the same thing will happen again next week.

I believe that if the polls had not shown Hillary with a 90% chance of winning many people who would have voted for her diddn't be cause they figured she was a shoe in.

24 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Do you know what "early voting" means...a lot of people voted early. It doesn't mean anything about what the final voter turnout will be.

Right. The laws of probsbility are clealy of no concern to you.