Thailand reports daily record 967 new coronavirus infections

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I was thinking exponential is if the increase keeps increasing which it's not, not on every day anyway but I would say if most days have it's increase increasing so I would say it's exponential.

You are right, exponential only exists if the increase reported is greater than the previous increase. This can be hidden or exaggerated by retrospective reporting.

The real concern should be on the rate of increase, an increase of 200% on the previous day should be of more of a concern than say 50%. The current figures 9th/10th/11th taken in perspective are effectively flatlining but today may show something different. 

[ThailandRyan]

26 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I could possibly be a major factor when one thinks about it.Aged care facilities might be called death camps in the future by weirdos like me.

if you look at what happened in the west and then in Europe and the UK then you wouldn't be to far off with that comment when history judges the pandemic and it becomes a footnote in history books our great grandkids will study from.  Thailand's villages and how everyone takes care of their families is so much different now compared to elsewhere.  But back in the days families had compounds where the generations lived together until they became suburban travelers for work and moved into cities that grew in the west and in the EU and UK.  Kids then had no time for their aged parents and thus the care home was born and was a place to stash gram and gramps.

Edited April 12, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[LosLobo]

39 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Certainly different.

 

As elderly care homes in the United States and Europe become ever more badly run and far too expensive for many, some Europeans and Americans are beginning to take their parents and other elderly relatives to Thailand to live instead.

Elderly care homes in Thailand are usually cheaper than they are in the U.S. and Europe. They are also often better run, with caregivers that actually care about the elderly people they take care of, instead of being the abusers some working in western retirement homes have become.

https://tastythailand.com/are-elderly-care-homes-in-thailand-the-future-for-many-retirees-in-the-west/

I didn't realize aged care homes were common in Thailand.

 

I thought In Thailand, parents were highly respected and cared for by their offspring in a home setting.

 

Would most Thais even be able to afford the cost?

 

The Thai government doesn't subsidize aged care like the West does.

Edited April 12, 2021 by LosLobo

[mberbae]

WHY is Prayuth NOT getting the vaccines early ? And WHY

is he buying the Sinovac vaccine, which has the lowest

efficacy rating than any other vaccine on the market ?

[sandyf]

29 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

The Thai government doesn't subsidize aged care like the West does.

That is a good one.

In my part of the west, elderly care is means tested. If you qualify you have to wait for a place. My aunt waited years and then died within weeks of getting in.

Then came covid.

 

A series of “shockingly irresponsible” Government decisions put tens of thousands of older people’s lives at risk and led to multiple violations of care home residents’ human rights, said Amnesty International today, following an investigation by the human rights group’s Crisis Response team.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/uk-older-people-in-care-homes-abandoned-to-die-amid-government-failures-during-covid-19-pandemic/

 

Does government involvement make it a better system?

[ThailandRyan]

35 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

I didn't realize aged care homes were common in Thailand.

 

I thought In Thailand, parents were highly respected and cared for by their offspring in a home setting.

 

Would most Thais even be able to afford the cost?

 

The Thai government doesn't subsidize aged care like the West does.

It's relatively new as many have recently started to spring up in places. 

[Saltire]

12 minutes ago, sandyf said:

That is a good one.

In my part of the west, elderly care is means tested. If you qualify you have to wait for a place. My aunt waited years and then died within weeks of getting in.

Then came covid.

 

A series of “shockingly irresponsible” Government decisions put tens of thousands of older people’s lives at risk and led to multiple violations of care home residents’ human rights, said Amnesty International today, following an investigation by the human rights group’s Crisis Response team.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/10/uk-older-people-in-care-homes-abandoned-to-die-amid-government-failures-during-covid-19-pandemic/

 

Does government involvement make it a better system?

Couldn't agree more. My mother in Scotland had to pay for care at £3000 a month from the enforced sale of her only asset, her retirement flat. Only when her savings were reduced to £15k did the council pick up the tab for her few remaining years.

 

 

[Joinaman]

I'm curious 

How do they know that there has been such an increase in infections, unless they have increased the testing ?

If they were not testing before, how do they know the number of infected ?

With none, or limited testing, how can they know how many of the population have been infected ?

They talk of increased infections, but no mention of the number of people in ICUs , or people suffering from long term sickness due to this virus

97 people have died from this "deadly" virus in around 16 months, less than 2 a week, and how many of these 97 had other underlying illnesses ?

They complain of hospitals being overwhelmed, yet continue to put healthy people in them , instead of either letting them self isolate, or keep them in field hospitals

They continue to use words like, could, possibly, maybe, if,  which say so much, yet mean so little. 

We had big increases of infections last year, yet so very few deaths os sicknesses, why should it be different this year ?

Ask around your town or villages and see how many people have friends or relatives who have died or been hospitalized due to this virus, yet  they run scared due to the constant hype from the media

How many would have known or even noticed the few deaths and sickness out of such a large population , without the media hype ?

Why do they continue to ruin the economy  and the lives of millions for what is in reality, such a small number of deaths , yet accept the many many thousands of deaths from the roads, river fluke cancers, etc .

[cyril sneer]

985 today

 

it'll stay around the 1000 mark until Songkran is over then start to decrease (official figures not real figures)

[ThailandRyan]

So a slight bump, and I would think it includes the late numbers yesterday from Chiang Mai, but then until I see the breakdown one can not be sure those numbers made it into todays stats.

[rabas]

4 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I was thinking exponential is if the increase keeps increasing which it's not, not on every day anyway but I would say if most days have it's increase increasing so I would say it's exponential.

 

Yes, exponential is when the increase keeps increasing.  And it does.

Here are the numbers from the graph.

 

Strong Exponential (increase keeps increasing)
Day   Cases  Increase change of Increase
----------------------------------------------
11      3762       967         +178
10    2795       789         +230
 9    2006       559         +154
 8    1447        405         +71
 7    1042         334        +84
 6     708        250         +56
 5     458        194         +98
 4     264          96         +12
 3     168           84         +26
 2      26           58         +32
 1         0           26           -

 

Here is what  linear non exponential looks like.

Linear example (increase is constant)
Day   Cases   Increase   change of Increase =0
----------------------------------------------
11       450       50           0
10      400       50           0
 9      350       50           0
 8      300       50           0
 7      250       50           0
 6      200       50           0
 5      150        50           0
 4      100        50           0
 3        50       50           0
 1          0        50           -

 

Edited April 12, 2021 by rabas

[Sheryl]

12 hours ago, Antonymous said:

 

Sheryl, are you implying that the greater number of positive PCR tests mentioned in the OP are going to lead to an increase in deaths?

 

How close do you think the correlation will be? How concerned should we be about the number of Thailand cases reported in the OP?

 

Do you think that the results in Thailand will be significantly different from those found in other countries where we have clear data from a larger number of positive cases and recorded deaths? I can’t see this happening. Please take a look at this chart for example (the source is printed) showing daily PCR/Antigen confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths in the USA:

 

 

As you can see from the regression lines, in the USA there hasn’t been any causality or correlation between the number of positive test cases and actual deaths over time. In fact the only real correlation that can be shown is that the more testing that is undertaken, the greater the number of positive cases are found. I believe this is what we are seeing in Thailand too. As the OP states, there have been a lot more positive cases recently but no more deaths and only 97 in total to date.

 

For explanations about this we have to delve into the known inadequacies of PCR tests themselves, which even the WHO have been forced to admit now after a spate of law suits, but I won’t go into that here.

Your chart is misleading due to putting both deaths and cases on the same scale.

 

Deaths were not at all flat. There was a very large spike April-  May 2020 and again December 2020 - February 2021.

 

The curve of deaths follows that of new cases with about a 2 week lag.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

There isn't a new thread yet for today's (Monday's) new numbers. Up again from 967 yesterday.

 

 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

13 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Yes, exponential is when the increase keeps increasing.  And it does.

Here are the numbers from the graph.

 

Strong Exponential (increase keeps increasing)
Day   Cases  Increase change of Increase
----------------------------------------------
11      3762       967         +178
10    2795       789         +230
 9    2006       559         +154
 8    1447        405         +71
 7    1042         334        +84
 6     708        250         +56
 5     458        194         +98
 4     264          96         +12
 3     168           84         +26
 2      26           58         +32
 1         0           26           -

 

Here is what  linear non exponential looks like.

Linear example (increase is constant)
Day   Cases   Increase   change of Increase =0
----------------------------------------------
11       450       50           0
10      400       50           0
 9      350       50           0
 8      300       50           0
 7      250       50           0
 6      200       50           0
 5      150        50           0
 4      100        50           0
 3        50       50           0
 1          0        50           -

 

You can now add 985 for today.So if the increase each day went up by 1 each day that would be exponential?Still trying to wrap my head around exponential.I'm thinking that the change of increase would need to increase to be called exponential to make the graph steepen continually.If the increase went up at a constant rate ,say 1  wouldn't that create a straight line increase rather than an exponential curve?

[Mike k]

15 hours ago, joe jadore said:

,And for all the Government "Breaking News Alerts", are we not at about 100 thousand vaccinations that have actually  been injected into peoples arms in our beloved Thailand!

 

NOT withstanding that the FDA have "approved" THREE (3) vaccines for use in Thailand!

 

And they, the (Gov) are generously predicting that "only" half the population will be vaccinated by years end!

 

What the heck Ministers, they are tiny little bottles and 5 baht needles. SAVE YOUR PEOPLE & their BUSINESS'S! 

Submarines and aircraft carriers are more important to this military government 

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You can now add 985 for today.So if the increase each day went up by 1 each day that would be exponential?Still trying to wrap my head around exponential.I'm thinking that the change of increase would need to increase to be called exponential to make the graph steepen continually.If the increase went up at a constant rate ,say 1  wouldn't that create a straight line increase rather than an exponential curve?

You can have daily figures go up and down and still be in exponential increase so long as it remains within the curve, here's an example

[rabas]

23 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You can now add 985 for today.So if the increase each day went up by 1 each day that would be exponential?Still trying to wrap my head around exponential.I'm thinking that the change of increase would need to increase to be called exponential to make the graph steepen continually.If the increase went up at a constant rate ,say 1  wouldn't that create a straight line increase rather than an exponential curve?

"If the increase each day went up by 1 each day that would be exponential?"

 

Yes, technically. If the change (increase) went up by 1 every day, the curve would continue to bend upwards (look exponential) but very slightly.

 

"If the increase went up at a constant rate ,say 1  wouldn't that create a straight line increase rather than an exponential curve?"

 

If the increase stayed the same ever day, say 100, then cases would be a straight line.

(Be careful of your terms) If the increase went up a constant 1 every day, then the increase would rise linearly, the cases would rise exponentially.  Be careful which derivative you refer to.

 

The confusion comes because people sometimes draw the numbers of cases, and other times draw the new cases each day. 

 

Exponential increase is expected from a contagious disease. However, other factors can change how fast it rises or even make it begin to decrease. I suspect today's 985 is because 1) the public has become aware and worried. 2) Some hospitals stopped testing because they were short on beds. 3) Many people left Bangkok to other areas with slower or less testing. We will have to watch a few days to see exactly where it will go. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by rabas

[berrec]

20 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

You've posted a bunch of mostly right-wing sources arguing against the effectiveness of lockdowns. If you remove political partisanship from the discussion, there's a lot of expert health opinion that they in fact can help stop the spread of the virus and save lives. Among them...

 

Yes, Lockdowns Do Help Slow the Spread of COVID-19

• Countries around the world turned to lockdowns to help stop the spread of COVID-19.
• While lockdowns may not be 100 percent effective, studies show that they do help greatly reduce the transmission of the coronavirus.
• However, studies also show that those who are able to participate in lockdowns benefit more from them than those who have to work in high-risk environments."

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/yes-lockdowns-do-help-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19

 

AND

 

Fact check: Studies show COVID-19 lockdowns have saved lives

 

"While it is true that more restrictive measures that aim to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 can have an impact in income and mental health, multiple studies suggest that stay-at-home orders and other nonpharmaceutical interventions have a determining role in reducing the transmission of the virus. Experts highlight that a more “targeted” approach rather than a “nationwide” lockdown, can limit the impact of the pandemic while balancing other economic, mental health and social concerns."

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-lockdowns/fact-check-studies-show-covid-19-lockdowns-have-saved-lives-idUSKBN2842WS

 

I should add, the issues you've raised are broader ones that go beyond the topic of this thread on Thailand's coronavirus daily reports...and probably is best debated in the Coronavirus thread instead of here.

 

Re" You've posted a bunch of mostly right-wing sources arguing against the effectiveness of lockdowns".

 

So now you an expert on COVID politicalization!.

 

How about sticking to the facts and keeping your left-wing political views out of it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[peter48]

The incredible thing is Thailand's Covid19 death rate. So similar countries with high populations like UK, US, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, France, Italy, Germany  and Spain and now central Europe  & Baltics etc are suffering deaths in many, many thousands eg UK is 127,000 dead citizens from this awful virus. Thailand is around 97.  Japan and South Korea also has higher deaths than Thailand ( although nothing like Europe) , UK, France and Germany are developed economies. 

So why so different, is it the diet? . is it the public authorities? Are the medics really on top ? Medicines for seriously hospitalised Covid19 are  very expensive and from Brazil to India to USA all ICUs are overflowing into corridors . So what factors can put Thailand with a large population of 70 million  in such a different position?

Edited April 12, 2021 by peter48

[sandhurstmolonski]

On 4/11/2021 at 11:43 AM, pmh2009 said:

All rubbish about treatments!!!! I know where 2 people in an apartment near me having COVID 19, informed the govt hospital but no pickup and the reason was because the beds are full!!! They are a poor couple... so money no honey!!! The real infection, in treatment patients and deaths are TOTALLY UNDERSTATED!!! If you have the money.... Thai or foreigner - get the shots if you can afford it!!!! No use talking about - DO IT!!!

   And I take it the poor couple are still alive , do where is the problem ? 

Nothing has changed in 14 days , and nothing needs to change , the response here was great , pointless trying to chase asymptomatic down a hole .

 

Best defense is an immune system that's functional , lock downs don't work , they make strains tougher . So just bring on the Vax , work toward herd , which UK is now approaching , there was never a reason for overeaction ..ANYWHERE .

Thailand has done extremely well , zero point going looking .

[Antonymous]

2 hours ago, Sheryl said:

The curve of deaths follows that of new cases with about a 2 week lag.

 

Thanks for responding Sheryl.

 

So, do you think that the increased number of positive PCR tests mentioned in the OP (described in this thread as 'exponential') are going to lead to a corresponding increase in deaths?

 

If so, from your 2 week lag and direct correlation hypotheses, you would expect the deaths uptick to begin in a few days from now and to increase exponentially thereafter. Is that correct? (This is regardless of whether or not we are to believe the official statistics).

 

I do not expect this to happen, for reasons mentioned in my previous posts.

 

This is surely a most important matter. Officials are coming out with case predictions, TV members are quoting (and gloating) on them and Thai social media is in a frenzy of fear over the prospects. Your voice of reason and views will be very welcome.

 

 

[Bob12345]

On 4/11/2021 at 3:03 PM, VBF said:

Oh yes there bloody is!!!!! It's your body - you have a right to be kept informed what is being done to it.

In the UK (NHS) doctors will sit and explain to you exactly what the planned procedure is / will be.

But the question was why it wasn't being asked by journalists and mentioned in newspapers, and that has nothing to do with being informed about what doctors are going to do in your specific case.

 

Simple solution: once the treatment plan is made by your doctor, TALK TO YOUR DOCTOR about what is going to happen, when, why, etc. I suppose they are going to tell you anyways, even if you don't ask, but you can always ask again and get answers to all your questions. 

[Sheryl]

18 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Thanks for responding Sheryl.

 

So, do you think that the increased number of positive PCR tests mentioned in the OP (described in this thread as 'exponential') are going to lead to a corresponding increase in deaths?

 

 

 

If so, from your 2 week lag and direct correlation hypotheses, you would expect the deaths uptick to begin in a few days from now and to increase exponentially thereafter. Is that correct? (This is regardless of whether or not we are to believe the official statistics).

 

I do not expect this to happen, for reasons mentioned in my previous posts.

 

This is surely a most important matter. Officials are coming out with case predictions, TV members are quoting (and gloating) on them and Thai social media is in a frenzy of fear over the prospects. Your voice of reason and views will be very welcome.

 

 

 

 

Dearths are a subset of cases of infections.

 

Obviously with a major increase in cases there will also be a rise in absolute number of deaths.

[VBF]

11 minutes ago, Bob12345 said:

But the question was why it wasn't being asked by journalists and mentioned in newspapers, and that has nothing to do with being informed about what doctors are going to do in your specific case.

 

Simple solution: once the treatment plan is made by your doctor, TALK TO YOUR DOCTOR about what is going to happen, when, why, etc. I suppose they are going to tell you anyways, even if you don't ask, but you can always ask again and get answers to all your questions. 

Actually, I was responding to what you said which was ......

 

"When you check in at the hospital they will treat you, there is no need to know beforehand which medicines are recommended or arrive with your own checklist to double-check them. "       My emphasis

 

Hence my "Yes there is" response, as I'd rather have an idea before going to a particular hospital, if circumstances allow for it.

[Artisi]

2 hours ago, peter48 said:

The incredible thing is Thailand's Covid19 death rate. So similar countries with high populations like UK, US, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, France, Italy, Germany  and Spain and now central Europe  & Baltics etc are suffering deaths in many, many thousands eg UK is 127,000 dead citizens from this awful virus. Thailand is around 97.  Japan and South Korea also has higher deaths than Thailand ( although nothing like Europe) , UK, France and Germany are developed economies. 

So why so different, is it the diet? . is it the public authorities? Are the medics really on top ? Medicines for seriously hospitalised Covid19 are  very expensive and from Brazil to India to USA all ICUs are overflowing into corridors . So what factors can put Thailand with a large population of 70 million  in such a different position?

Why is it different, my thoughts as well from a very early stage of covid, why? 

[Walter Travolta]

22 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

There are varying estimates for death rates related to the coronavirus, depending on the country, population etc.

 

But if Thailand did nothing and just let the virus spread at will, that could mean a very large CV death toll in a country of 70 million people.

 

If Thailand ended up with the same death rate thus far as the U.S.. (now 575,000+ and counting out of 300 million), that would be about 140,000 deaths in Thailand. (0.2% of the population), if I did my math right.

 

Im not sure what your point is?

You wrote 3 paragraphs and the first mentions "varying estimates for different countries" which can be used for any subject to be honest

The other 2 paragraphs start with "if . . . "

Also I am not suggesting ANY country "do nothing", Im asking for all countries to treat its citizens as grown ups and not put ALL people into a group where they are automatically thought of as high risk

 

The fact that you used "ifs and variants" shows how differentiating the subject matter and opinion is on this topic.

 

Im not attacking what you say at all, just highlighting that we are still no nearer to any kind of end to this yet the powers that be are still doing what they were doing from the beginning, they need to try another approach

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

 

So, do you think that the increased number of positive PCR tests mentioned in the OP (described in this thread as 'exponential') are going to lead to a corresponding increase in deaths?

 

Deaths will follow unfortunately, it only takes single digit increase in covid deaths here for it to become exponential.

[sandyf]

4 hours ago, Saltire said:

Couldn't agree more. My mother in Scotland had to pay for care at £3000 a month from the enforced sale of her only asset, her retirement flat. Only when her savings were reduced to £15k did the council pick up the tab for her few remaining years.

 

 

My aunt was also in north east Scotland, she was in council accommodation and been housebound for over a decade and was touching 90. My brother lived locally and used to visit regularly but not being family couldn't say much. She had fallen out with the younger daughter in London and the elder lived in Canada. When she came over she was horrified at the state of her mother and the only way she got something done was threaten the GP, said she was going to report him to the GMC for neglect. It was too late the damage had been done, due mainly to underfunding and probably a preference to those that had assets to sell.

[Artisi]

5 hours ago, mberbae said:

WHY is Prayuth NOT getting the vaccines early ? And WHY

is he buying the Sinovac vaccine, which has the lowest

efficacy rating than any other vaccine on the market ?

Still negotiating the lunch box order.... 

[Antonymous]

40 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Why is it different, my thoughts as well from a very early stage of covid, why? 

 

It is not just Thailand. Take a look at infection and mortality numbers around the world at worldometers.com and you can see that whereas in Europe and America there has been high mortality (710 per million population) this has not been the case in SE Asia, Africa and Oceania (112 per million). Indications are that we have much higher immunity in these parts of the world.

 

This is a complex issue and unfortunately analysis is befuddled by political bias. For example countries like Thailand claiming that the low infection rates here have been due to stringent measures when all of us with eyes to see know that most measures were thwarted by a large part of the population. Another hot potato is that the WHO originally declared Covid 19 to be a novel coronavirus. By ‘novel’ they assumed that the general population are all susceptible to develop the disease. However, the disparities worldwide referred to above and later scientific research has shown this is not a reasonable assumption. Several studies show that individuals have immunity to SARS-CoV-2 by T cell mediated mechanisms and I gave references to this research on this in my post on page 5 of this thread, if you are interested.

 

Reasons for the disparities likely include but I’m sure are not limited to:

 

- The factor just mentioned, that previous exposure to similar coronaviruses have probably created greater immunity in certain parts of the world (think about the spread of SARS 2003 in China and SE Asia for example)

 

- Different viral strains perhaps being more infectious and powerful

 

- The prevalence of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and poor diet in the west, which are all clearly significant factors in mortality

 

- Climate differences that include more sunlight (UVA) and greater humidity,  more people being outdoors and not cooped up inside, higher levels of Vit D