Thailand reports 1,547 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, Rhacsyn said:

Hi

 

As you may have an insight into these numbers for Thailand, if you have the time and wish to reply could you provide some reasoning and definitive numbers behind your comment.

 

In addition, I would be interested if you could list, let's say 5 countries whose numbers you trust.

 

If not included in above, are we to believe the numbers form our neighbours in Vietnam and Cambodia for example?

 

Sorry to be a pest but I am simply interested in different peoples understanding of this part of it all especially after your statement. 

Vietnam crushed the virus early on via hard lockdowns and closing its borders. Because of its zero tolerance policy, they have to publish accurate infection numbers to justify hard lockdowns, and if they were to relax their policy, there would be more infections.

 

on the other hand, Cambodia .....

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

4 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

80% is what I have been seeing and hearing is possibly needed, and this comes from my daughter the surgical Rn/PA, but then with the variants of the virus, how can we even achieve herd immunity.  Do we already have herd immunity for the common cold or the flu that circulates yearly, and if so is it something that continues changing in your body with the immunities growing and changing and producing more warrior white blood cells as we age thus allowing our bodies to adapt to the virus's.  Immune systems, funny things they are.  We are all different, no two alike unless your a twin and even then there are some subtle differences.

 

Happened to come across this interesting Q & A with a COVID researcher in the Infectious Disease News website.... including the following excerpt, which again makes me wonder where the Thai MoPH is getting their 60% figure from:

 

"The HIT is the fraction of people who need to be immunized to stop the virus from spreading. Researchers have estimated that this may be 70%, 80%, or even higher, and that we can achieve herd immunity only if we reach these high levels of immunity everywhere. If there are pockets of low immunity — for example, in children, disadvantaged communities or subgroups with high levels of vaccine hesitancy — then we won't be able to stop the virus."

 

https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210413/qa-what-is-herd-immunity-and-what-will-happen-to-sarscov2-if-we-reach-it?

 

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, Petey11 said:

This site also shows total lab tests and breaks down numbers into PUI etc.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php

 

These MOPH sites shows total laboratory tests so not sure why figures differ. Casts more confusion and doubt on reports I think if you're of  the cynical kind.

Thank you.

 

It looks like nationwide tests are about 15,000 per day, so the positivity rate last week (the last reporting date) was 10%.

 

This indicates either that the sample size is too small or, more likely, that Thailand is suffering an epidemic.

[sapson]

4 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Hioe we can get on top of this but I can’t help but feel this has been circulating a lot longer than just the 22nd March. This is probably an extension of the outbreak in December and January.

 

Exactly! their seems to be a need to play the blame game..... it was the migrant workers or the nightclub scene to somehow save face.

 

Could be the virus has been widespread in the Thai population for a long time but the very minimal and clearly discouraged testing program until now has kept it under wraps as per the army generals in controls mandate.

 

Or can you believe that temperature machines at 7/11s etc and mask wearing was a master plan that somehow kept Thailand miraculously virtually virus free for a year while other countries were overwhelmed.

[Kinnock]

9 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

With the latest cases, Thailand moved up one notch to being ranked 110th among all countries in terms of its cumulative number of COVID cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

 

The MoPH chart below ranks countries based on their cumulative numbers of COVID cases:

 

 

The following MoPH chart compares Thailand with its regional Asian neighboring country peers, again ranked by total numbers of COVID cases:

 

 

 

 

Thank you for posting all the available data - though I'm not sure what it really tells us, apart from there looks to be an increase?  The above figures for example will be heavily influenced by population size.

 

You already highlight that testing numbers and repeat tests will impact on the data.

 

So apart from avoiding crowds and party girls I don't see there's much practical action we can take.

[Swimfan]

55 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Happened to come across this interesting Q & A with a COVID researcher in the Infectious Disease News website.... including the following excerpt, which again makes me wonder where the Thai MoPH is getting their 60% figure from:

 

"The HIT is the fraction of people who need to be immunized to stop the virus from spreading. Researchers have estimated that this may be 70%, 80%, or even higher, and that we can achieve herd immunity only if we reach these high levels of immunity everywhere. If there are pockets of low immunity — for example, in children, disadvantaged communities or subgroups with high levels of vaccine hesitancy — then we won't be able to stop the virus."

 

https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210413/qa-what-is-herd-immunity-and-what-will-happen-to-sarscov2-if-we-reach-it?

 

There was an interesting Covid documentary on BBC a couple of weeks ago. They showed the formula of how they calculate the herd immunity figures. One of the key references in the formula is the R number of the prevalent strains of virus. They estimate for strain like B117 also known as the UK variant the R is as high as 4.5. With that as a reference they calculated that it would require vaccination rates of 94% to achieve herd immunity 

[Bkk Brian]

Here is the testing numbers and positive case count that I've put on a chart for the 8th - 14th April (I'll do the following week once its updated). As you can see on the 14th April there were 8,722 tests and 1,335 cases found, this gives a 15.3% positive rate.

 

The data from this is from here https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/situation.php this is the Thai version and is updated more regularly than the English version here https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php# Don't let the url fool you ie "viralpneumonia" as these web pages were published before WHO gave the virus its official Covid-19 title. The title of the pdf's claerly state Covid-19 update.

 

The information that is provided in these pdf's is the same as provided in the daily briefings, its just the testing numbers that we are interested in. The PCR test counts are for active case finding and walk in hospital cases only so are the most useful ones.

 

If you want the raw data which is on the same website you can go here https://service.dmsc.moph.go.th/labscovid19/ scroll down to the bottom of the page to click on the excel file which contains the full list of daily tests unfiltered.

 

The caveat to this is that it includes all the daily tests in the labs throughout Thailand, this includes the tests done daily on arrivals from airports and subsequent testing before they leave quarantine. It includes testing carried out for people leaving Thailand and needing to be tested before entry to another country. Then of course it includes all the normal daily testing numbers through pro active and hospital walk ins.  Added to this each person found positive is tested a minimum of 3 times, once when they are found positive, a second to confirm or when they arrive at hospital, then a third when they leave hospital, maybe even a fourth?

 

So as we can see this is the pure raw data figures. Almost impossible to work out the positive rate through these figures.

 

Our world in Data website also uses raw data from the same source, you can view the link to where they say they source their figures here https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#thailand 

 

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, Swimfan said:

They estimate for strain like B117 also known as the UK variant the R is as high as 4.5. With that as a reference they calculated that it would require vaccination rates of 94% to achieve herd immunity 

Oh dear..................I hope Anutin or CCSA watched it!!

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Thank you.

 

It looks like nationwide tests are about 15,000 per day, so the positivity rate last week (the last reporting date) was 10%.

 

This indicates either that the sample size is too small or, more likely, that Thailand is suffering an epidemic.

Or that they're predominantly testing people that they've already identified through contact tracing as being more likely than normal to be infected because they're known to have been in contact with an infected person.

 

That they're not just going out and testing people at random in the population - but that they're using highly targeted testing, would be another explanation for a high rate of positives.

[daveAustin]

10 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

With the latest cases, Thailand moved up one notch to being ranked 110th among all countries in terms of its cumulative number of COVID cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

 

The MoPH chart below ranks countries based on their cumulative numbers of COVID cases:

 

 

The following MoPH chart compares Thailand with its regional Asian neighboring country peers, again ranked by total numbers of COVID cases:

 

 

 

All the countries in red around Thailand and yet it probably had more tourists than all those combined. Hmmm...

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Or that they're predominantly testing people that they've already identified through contact tracing as being more likely than normal to be infected because they're known to have been in contact with an infected person.

 

That they're not just going out and testing people at random in the population - but that they're using highly targeted testing, would be another explanation for a high rate of positives.

That makes sense as they do say tests are only free for people who have been to high risk areas. However the high positive rate is still there and shows more testing needs to be done. It seems to be well over 10% positive daily now which is as you know extremely high

Edited April 17, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Albert Zweistein]

11 hours ago, BookShe said:

Since cases are clearly coming down since yesterday, we should start talking about reopening. I heard rumors about TAT is working on some big announcement later today. Or tomorrow Or next month. Anyway. The point is that they are working on it. I feel excited already. 

They are always working on something but it never makes any sense.

[Albert Zweistein]

11 hours ago, ParkerN said:

 

Yep. I believe they did. Thais are most famous for listening to other people unless it's how to swindle some more cash. (They're particularly good at nicking other people's IPR).

 

But the Thai government (soldiers) are a whole other story. Orders of magnitude other.

 

You mean famous for NOT listening to other people.

[Marvin Hagler]

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

That makes sense as they do say tests are only free for people who have been to high risk areas. However the high positive rate is still there and shows more testing needs to be done. It seems to be well over 10% positive daily now which is as you know extremely high

If you believe the numbers then Thailand apparently had one of the worlds highest numbers of testing per positive case at 10 tests per positive case (or thereabouts).  This means in terms of contact tracing they would test 10 more people for every person they found.

 

In this case then it would mean they would be testing 150,000 people a day. Clearly they are not testing that amount of people and have never at any stage come anywhere near that number.

 

They simply are not and have not ever tested at the same rate as other countries. That is fine but they should not tout themselves as being successful in comparison to other countries until they start testing the same number of people.

[pookondee]

14 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

If you believe the numbers then Thailand apparently had one of the worlds highest numbers of testing per positive case at 10 tests per positive case (or thereabouts).  This means in terms of contact tracing they would test 10 more people for every person they found.

 

In this case then it would mean they would be testing 150,000 people a day. Clearly they are not testing that amount of people and have never at any stage come anywhere near that number.

 

They simply are not and have not ever tested at the same rate as other countries. That is fine but they should not tout themselves as being successful in comparison to other countries until they start testing the same number of people.

I dont think they ever claimed that.

From what ive read, if its purely hospital testing, they only do it if a patient ticks all the boxes for Covid.

This would make the infection to test ratio less?

 

Also id say testing is down by way of the peoples choice.

Who, if Asymptomatic, would risk getting dragged off to field hospital where you are likely to catch a much worse strain?

[Excel]

2 hours ago, pookondee said:

I dont think they ever claimed that.

From what ive read, if its purely hospital testing, they only do it if a patient ticks all the boxes for Covid.

This would make the infection to test ratio less?

 

Also id say testing is down by way of the peoples choice.

Who, if Asymptomatic, would risk getting dragged off to field hospital where you are likely to catch a much worse strain?

Never mind about the issue of getting dragged of to hospital or the fact that being asymptomatic can still spread the virus. Testing is not being undertaken nationwide in Thailand as in other countries. Also being asymptomatic means you generally have no symptoms.  Whilst I have read the argument  that Thais do not want to lose face, hence their reluctance to go and get tested, well frankly I do not think that is the case, most certainly not in the area I live. Simply put, apart from hypochondriacs, who world wide would go to a hospital or see their doctor if they feel perfectly healthy as asymptomatic people do ?  The answer is nobody, hence the importance of mass nationwide testing to find those infected. Alternatively one could argue that if 80% of the world are asymptomatic then simply by doing nothing it would eventually die out ( along with around 1.6 billion people of course most probably whom a great number would have passed on due to other causes).  Now I I not proposing that that is what should have happened, just trying to emphasise that not getting tested to save face is a baseless suggestion as Thais are generally scared of catching this and passing it to their children, rather having no symptoms  means you don't know you have it anyway.  

Edited April 17, 2021 by Excel

[morrobay]

8 hours ago, Swimfan said:

There was an interesting Covid documentary on BBC a couple of weeks ago. They showed the formula of how they calculate the herd immunity figures. One of the key references in the formula is the R number of the prevalent strains of virus. They estimate for strain like B117 also known as the UK variant the R is as high as 4.5. With that as a reference they calculated that it would require vaccination rates of 94% to achieve herd immunity 

R0 4.5 !!  With only 4 Then the Thong-Lo index cases/initial infectors that produced 11722 cases from April 1 to April 17 (see reply #3, TGJBKK.) Would only require about 5 people: 5 (ro4)^5.6 = 11762. The exponent is from 17days/3 days(generation interval) the time between Infector/infectee infection events . See graph. Gen int is about 1 day less than serial int.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32145466/#:~:text=Limiting our data to only,than its median incubation period.

[ParkerN]

Just now, Albert Zweistein said:

You mean famous for NOT listening to other people.

yes. I corrected the post but not quickly enough it seems.

[morrobay]

33 minutes ago, morrobay said:

R0 4.5 !!  With only 4 Then the Thong-Lo index cases/initial infectors that produced 11722 cases from April 1 to April 17 (see reply #3, TGJBKK.) Would only require about 5 people: 5 (ro4)^5.6 = 11762. The exponent is from 17days/3 days(generation interval) the time between Infector/infectee infection events . See graph. Gen int is about 1 day less than serial int.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32145466/#:~:text=Limiting our data to only,than its median incubation period.

Actually an R0 of just 3.7 can produce the total cases with a summation of the generation intervals, 2,3,4,5,5.6 from 1-17 April  The 11762 above would be the new infections on April 17.

[Bkk Brian]

According to a leaked infographic of new cases, the number of new infections today is a record 1,767 with two new deaths. Notably, there are now 128 people in serious condition, with 28 on ventilators. * To be confirmed at the press briefing at 11:30am

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1383612553717194752

 

[Excel]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

According to a leaked infographic of new cases, the number of new infections today is a record 1,767 with two new deaths. Notably, there are now 128 people in serious condition, with 28 on ventilators. * To be confirmed at the press briefing at 11:30am

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1383612553717194752

 

Yes my Wife has been receiving unofficial accounts of the increase from her friends  yet  it is difficult to ascertain which is better or worse. A circle of friends gossiping to one another and perhaps misconstruing what they have been told or simply reading government lies.  Neither present the true facts. Yet by logic with limited testing the number of infections is anyone's guess.

[cyril sneer]

36 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Notably, there are now 128 people in serious condition, with 28 on ventilators.

I wonder what these numbers were like during the peak of the 1st and 2nd waves 

[Gumballl]

Being infected with Covid is not a death sentence. The virus enters the body, and the body reacts to counter it. Sometimes the body reacts too much and not only wipes out the virus, but then goes after other areas... i.e. organs.

 

The virus itself generally fades away after a handful of days. By the tenth day, infected people can re-enter society without worrying that they are contagious.

 

Covid is very similar to the flu. However it is a variant that makes the body react in a peculiar way.

 

I am a Covid victim, and I should have recovered in a few days (albeit remaining in self-quarantine for 10 days). On my twelveth day, I was diagnosed with having a viral pneumonia. With treatment at a hospital, I recovered and today I'm doing well.

 

Gratuitous testing for Covid is stupid. Test only if you have symptoms or if someone you know, and you have had contact with, has tested positive.

 

Test results can take up to two days to receive; most people are not going to isolate themselves for two days awaiting the results. Christ, a person could become infected minutes before receiving a negative result.

 

I was infected with Covid in mid-December, Even with a certain degree of immunity, I decided to get vaccinated against the <deleted>. I will get my second dose in a few days. There are only a few people on Earth that I would wish for Covid to strike them down; for the rest of you, make plans to get vaccinated.

 

Anyhow, stay safe. Avoid congregating with strangers. Wash your hands often. Wear a mask and eye glasses (optional) to avoid having virus droplets enter your nose or eyes.

 

[ThailandRyan]

31 minutes ago, Excel said:

Yes my Wife has been receiving unofficial accounts of the increase from her friends  yet  it is difficult to ascertain which is better or worse. A circle of friends gossiping to one another and perhaps misconstruing what they have been told or simply reading government lies.  Neither present the true facts. Yet by logic with limited testing the number of infections is anyone's guess.

I made a comment yesterday evening of cases in the provinces growing but it was from Facebook postings and with the caveat that the numbers would be added to todays numbers.  I was unable to preface the links and was told by another poster that it was purely anecdotal, but then I knew the people who had posted and trust them.  However, I learned my lesson and will now use different terms when I post such late in the day info that comes from unverified sources.

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, Gumballl said:

Being infected with Covid is not a death sentence. The virus enters the body, and the body reacts to counter it. Sometimes the body reacts too much and not only wipes out the virus, but then goes after other areas... i.e. organs.

 

The virus itself generally fades away after a handful of days. By the tenth day, infected people can re-enter society without worrying that they are contagious.

 

Covid is very similar to the flu. However it is a variant that makes the body react in a peculiar way.

 

I am a Covid victim, and I should have recovered in a few days (albeit remaining in self-quarantine for 10 days). On my twelveth day, I was diagnosed with having a viral pneumonia. With treatment at a hospital, I recovered and today I'm doing well.

 

Gratuitous testing for Covid is stupid. Test only if you have symptoms or if someone you know, and you have had contact with, has tested positive.

 

Test results can take up to two days to receive; most people are not going to isolate themselves for two days awaiting the results. Christ, a person could become infected minutes before receiving a negative result.

 

I was infected with Covid in mid-December, Even with a certain degree of immunity, I decided to get vaccinated against the <deleted>. I will get my second dose in a few days. There are only a few people on Earth that I would wish for Covid to strike them down; for the rest of you, make plans to get vaccinated.

 

Anyhow, stay safe. Avoid congregating with strangers. Wash your hands often. Wear a mask and eye glasses (optional) to avoid having virus droplets enter your nose or eyes.

 

I hope you understand how serious an asymptomatic infection and positive test needs to be taken.  Asymptomatic can and do spread the virus.  Look at the newest reports that have been posted in other forums on the subject herein.  As far as your statement of "Gratuitous testing for Covid is stupid. Test only if you have symptoms or if someone you know, and you have had contact with, has tested positive" you are so far off base I don't know what to say to you except look at the newest data and verified peer reviewed studies.  Most of all as you say, and i also say Stay Safe. 

[ThailandRyan]

Just listed on the news 1,767 new cases and 2 more deaths.  

[meechai]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand reported 1,547 new COVID-19 infections on Saturday and two additional deaths

 

 

1547 new & 2 deaths??

That in itself should be reassuring to folks

 

When Covid arrived it swept thru many countries Thailand included.

Killed many with a super pneumonia attacking the weak & those with pre existing conditions

 

Now it is mainly asymptomatic...everywhere

 

I live where most have been vaccinated if over 16

Changes? not really still many asymptomatic cases daily.... still not crowded hospitals (although we never were)

 

 

 

 

[morrobay]

14 hours ago, Swimfan said:

There was an interesting Covid documentary on BBC a couple of weeks ago. They showed the formula of how they calculate the herd immunity figures. One of the key references in the formula is the R number of the prevalent strains of virus. They estimate for strain like B117 also known as the UK variant the R is as high as 4.5. With that as a reference they calculated that it would require vaccination rates of 94% to achieve herd immunity 

And with the data from reply #3 TGJBKK  . Thong-Lor cluster (UK varient)produces 11722 cases from April 1 to 17 . With an R0 calculation that doesn't require number of initial/index infectors: R0 = e^kt. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number  Scroll to estimation methods. With rate constant solved ,k = .3844 * and t = 3 days generation interval then the bad news is that the R0 = e^1.537 = 4.65    *math can be shown.

[EricTh]

Does anyone have reliable source that can tell us where was the epicenter of the third wave and who brought it here?

 

The second wave was quite clear, it came from Samut Sakhon seafood market but this third wave????

[Excel]

1 hour ago, meechai said:

 

1547 new & 2 deaths??

That in itself should be reassuring to folks

 

When Covid arrived it swept thru many countries Thailand included.

Killed many with a super pneumonia attacking the weak & those with pre existing conditions

 

Now it is mainly asymptomatic...everywhere

 

I live where most have been vaccinated if over 16

Changes? not really still many asymptomatic cases daily.... still not crowded hospitals (although we never were)

 

 

 

 

"I live where most have been vaccinated if over 16"

 

So you are living in Israel ?