Thailand reports 1,390 new COVID-19 cases, 3 more deaths

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Government chart showing Bangkok and Chiang Mai as the two primary COVID hotspot locations in recent days, based on volume of daily new cases, which is somewhat to be expected because of the relatively larger populations in those two provinces.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/290676409208936

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[RichardColeman]

For those that use worldometer, they have added a new 'weekly trends'. Thailand is now 8th on the biggest rises in covid in the world. Not exactly something the TAT can spin for holidays.

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This may also indicate a drop in testing.

From a data analyst on Covid growth 

 

“The number of reported new cases is tied to the availability of testing. So, a ‘signal’ regarding the number of new cases might represent a flattening of the new-case curve but it could also reflect testing limitations.”

 

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/covid-19-deaths-still-growing-exponentially-u-s-hot-spots-seattle-startup-finds-new-data-analysis/

[Misty]

The Songkran holiday could well be a factor in lower numbers.  Long holidays (and even weekends) cause sharp falls in confirmed cases in other countries.  Here's a chart of the US confirmed cases (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) .  Note the pre-Christmas/New Year peak occurred on 18 Dec 2020 at around 257k, then fell to a low of 188k on 28 Dec 2020, eventually peaking at over 307k on 8 Jan.

 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Questionable numbers?

How did they arrive at 326 cases from people entering quarantine? What does that even mean?

The graphic says 326 cases found through pro active screening. Thats when they target test a group of people in a high risk area.

[FarFlungFalang]

10 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

Clearly not exponential or linear growth now. ????????????

It's now in exponential decay. 

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

Clearly not exponential or linear growth now. ????????????

Its possible to be in exponential growth and still decrease in numbers for a few days. Look at these charts for an example of staying within the trend and then breaking out.

[LosLobo]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

 "Bumrungrad hospital on my way home from MTT this morning,"

I have noticed you have used MTT before. I know what GTM means but what does MTT mean?

[Sunderland]

19 minutes ago, bermondburi said:

Clearly not exponential or linear growth now. ????????????

Thailand has the most unusual looking COVID graphs since the beginning.

[Misty]

It would seem to be too soon in this outbreak to be calling trends either way, especially with the disruption of a long holiday like Songkran.  Here's a graph (courtesy worldometer) clearly showing a country's accelerating growth in cases. This is definitely not linear growth, and yes, some would call that exponential.  This is India, previously thought to have had COVID19 under control, but now suffering from an India-UK hybrid variant:

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Video of today's EN language government news briefing re COVID. Runs about 18 minutes in length:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/videos/770004573878070/

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Record breaking covid wave jeopardizes Thailand’s October reopening

 

Thailand’s record-breaking third Covid-19 wave is jeopardizing plans by the government to reopen the country to international tourism and may possibly impact so-called ‘bubble city’ tourism plans, multiple sources told Thai Enquirer.

 

Thailand discovered 1,767 coronavirus cases on Sunday, the third day in less than a week that the daily record for new infections was broken. The new cases means that the current third-wave of the pandemic has been the most severe yet with multiple hot-spots breaking out throughout the country.

 

The government has said that it will take weeks if not months for the current wave to be brought under control. A best-case scenario said that it would not be until June before the current wave is brought under control.

 

(more)

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/26477/record-breaking-covid-wave-jeopardizes-thailands-october-reopening/

 

 

[redwood1]

23 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

For those that use worldometer, they have added a new 'weekly trends'. Thailand is now 8th on the biggest rises in covid in the world. Not exactly something the TAT can spin for holidays.

 

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" Mark Twain

[lkv]

Let's clarify one thing.

 

The reason hospitals stopped testing was not because of a shortage of tests, but because so many people were coming out positive, and they had a shortage of beds, as per the Government's policy that anyone testing positive must be admitted in a hospital.

 

They never really tested last year, they are not really testing this year, so the charts showing Thailand as being amongst "the best in the world" are not reflecting reality.

 

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/12-hospitals-in-bangkok-stop-covid-19-testing-due-to-limited-beds-for-infected-patients

[ourmanflint]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Better results overall today compared to the 1,767 new cases reported Sunday, despite the three new deaths reported today, with only two provinces, Bangkok and Chiang Mai, reporting more than 100 new cases (yesterday's numbers in parentheses for comparison):

 

Bangkok -- 293 (down from 347)

Chiang Mai -- 197 (up from 164)

 

The dropoff in new cases reported Monday may have been influenced by Sunday being the last day of the long Song Kran holidays weekend. However, a government spokesman expressed optimism that the recent control measures/restrictions imposed by the government will lead to "a better situation" in the coming weeks.

 

 

The new COVID cases total the government reported Monday was the lowest daily total in the past five days.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thaimoph/posts/290630379213539

 

Add up the cases from past six days divide by number of days and bingo 1500 is still the magic number!

 

 

[DrJack54]

20 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

I have noticed you have used MTT before. I know what GTM means but what does MTT mean?

Muang Thong Thani. 

Gov immigration office

[LosLobo]

4 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

Add up the cases from past six days divide by number of days and bingo 1500 is still the magic number!

 

 

Daily numbers of reported cases are bouncing up and down. The 7-day average brings stability and overview.

COVID-19: The Advantage of a 7-Day-Average | Blogs (dwh.at)

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Thailand news and travel blogger Richard Barrow today shared information on two apparently farang COVID researchers who have been tracking and graphing all sorts of data relating to the kingdom's pandemic outbreak.

 

From Barrow:

"It is not always easy to get data analysis in English. So you might be interested in these sites:

 

COVID-19 Thailand Public Data (@pmdscully) https://petescully.co.uk/rese.../covid19-thailand-dashboards

 

Script to scrape public covid testing data from MOPH’s covid response (@djay75) https://github.com/djay/covidthailand"

 

https://www.facebook.com/richardbarrowthailand/posts/315832313236372

 

 

 

https://pmdscully.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/dashboard-covid-19-thailand_april19th2021_pm3.pdf

 

[Bkk Brian]

Some excellent resources just tweeted by Richard Barrow, look at the positive rate, shooting up! Top green line

 

 

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Thailand reported 1,390 new COVID-19 infections on Monday and three additional deaths.

 

Suspicious numbers. You would not expect the numbers to be so flat in an obvious major outbreak. The probable cause is that there is simply not enough testing. I bet if they ramped up testing 10x, they'd see 3x or more cases.

[webfact]

Thai COVID-19 infections ease after days of record highs

 

FILE PHOTO: People queue to be tested for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as the country deals with a fresh wave of infections after tackling earlier outbreaks, in Bangkok, Thailand April 16, 2021. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand reported 1,390 new coronavirus cases on Monday, slowing slightly after a run of record daily highs, amid a new wave of infections that has seen a third of the country's cases recorded this month alone.

 

The new infections were down by a fifth from Sunday's record 1,767 cases, which the coronavirus taskforce said was due to measures to control the spread and requests for people to avoid travel and gatherings.

 

"Measures we have introduced for next two weeks will reduce cases, travel and risky activities," Apisamai Srirangsan, a spokeswoman for the taskforce, told a briefing.

 

Three new deaths were reported, taking total fatalities to 104.

 

Thailand's third wave of infections is its most challenging so far, reaching all 77 of its provinces as the country celebrated a long holiday. The infections include the highly-transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of the virus and the majority of cases have been without symptoms.

 

Schools, bars and massage parlours have been closed until next month and alcohol sales banned in restaurants.

 

(Graphic on Thailand's COVID-19 cases) - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/rlgpdzjgopo/Pasted image 1618813834378.png

Of the 14,736 new cases this month, 3,615 have been in Bangkok, the outbreak epicentre, and 146 medical personnel have been infected, the taskforce said.

 

Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is confident the current measures to prevent super-spreading events would contain the rate of infections, government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri said on Monday.

 

"The government decided not to implement 'lockdown' and 'curfew' to avoid larger impact to the public.

 

Nevertheless, everyone is urged to strictly comply with the COVID-19 measures," he said in a statement.

 

The government said it would implement additional economic stimulus measures as appropriate.

 

Last week, Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow said this year's economic growth target of 4% could be missed due to the new outbreak.

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring and Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Martin Petty)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-04-19

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

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[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, webfact said:

"Measures we have introduced for next two weeks will reduce cases

They missed out one of those measures, cutting back on testing

[FarFlungFalang]

13 minutes ago, webfact said:

The government decided not to implement 'lockdown' and 'curfew' to avoid larger impact to the public.

So Thailand has decided to follow the Swedish model of no lockdowns and say the lockdown will do more damage to society than the virus.

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

They missed out one of those measures, cutting back on testing

Of course it's the only way to reduce numbers.  I just got of the phone with my daughter at her hospital in the US. She saw the posts I sent her and her first word was <deleted>, why are they not testing. There is no way numbers could drop like that after going upwards in  trend unless they were not testing a bigger playing field. She said that with the positives that we have had they should be testing 100's of thousands.  10 to every 1 positive at the least and those are just the people surrounding those positive. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[AMFWolfie]

2 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Questionable numbers?

How did they arrive at 326 cases from people entering quarantine? What does that even mean?

Basically everyone entering Thailand that goes into 15 day quarantine from a flight mainly, but dare say others across a land border has shown to be positive on day 5 of testing. When you consider everyone but Thai nationals have to have a negative Covid test and fit to fly certificate 72 hours before boarding a flight to Thailand it can only mean they were all Thais repatriating to Thailand that didn't need a test, or at least don't to board a Thai airways flight, or they were persons that suddenly got a negative result when should have been positive (unlikely) or they had forged/faked coved test from a clinic in their home country which is more likely as the airport check-in staff have no way of checking if the document is genuine or not. If they can save £150/£250 not to have a test people will....

[vandeventer]

And just where are we with the vaccines? If America put a stop on the J&J vaccine because a few people got blood clots, send the vaccines over here I'll take it along with many others without warrying so dam much.

[trainman34014]

'Preventative Measures'.   Ah yes; this morning they taped off the Fitness Machines in my local Village Park, that will stop that pesky disease from spreading around the area !!

Edited April 19, 2021 by trainman34014

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Province by province breakdown of today's newly reported  COVID cases, along with the comparable chart from yesterday for comparison purposes.

 

Provinces are listed in the order as reported by the Ministry of Public Health. Although the data is for new daily COVID cases, the ranked listing in the charts is based on the provinces total number of COVID cases (numbers not shown in the charts) since the pandemic began.

 

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nbtworld/posts/10157960222347050

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

New cases stabilizing (declining really) and continued no exponential growth...seems some members may be enjoying some crow pie soon.

Edited April 19, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[jojothai]

2 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Questionable numbers?

How did they arrive at 326 cases from people entering quarantine? What does that even mean?

 

2 hours ago, rabas said:

Do you mean these people were first placed in quarantee because they were high risk, then tested positive? That would make sense to me but I don't know.

 

1 hour ago, Sheryl said:

I think it refers to people arriving from abroad and entering State Quarantine or ASQ

We don’t know precisely what Reuters mean. I guess it must mean the number of people found from quarantine both local and imported.
There are 3 categories of cases being reported each day,

from 1. routine surveillance system,

2. proactive case finding and

3. individuals who entered Thailand from other countries.

See the information from yesterday below.
Imported numbers are very low, often in single figures.
The “proactive case finding” may result from people being quarantined locally after tracing or potential exposure and tested. To find out we would have to look at the numbers in detail.