If Thailand goes pear shaped

[sanuk711]

7 minutes ago, Pravda said:

I personally think Thailand is toast.

How will that affect the average (retired expat) if anything he will be better off.....But there were many people writing it off in the 97 crash--worse than this....and they were wrong

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by sanuk711

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, sanuk711 said:

In The 70s the Indians were nearly the majority of the population-- between 1987--2000

"The Fiji Indian diaspora" developed with people of Indian origin fleeing Fiji for Oz,  following the racially inspired coups.  but point taken thaibeachlovers, they are (were) not as obese as the other islanders.

Perhaps I should point out that I went there on military exercises and far as I saw, only native Fijians were in the Fiji army. So, I only met native Fijians, not Indian Fijians. I was in the city and in remote areas, but not wandering around tourist style.

I still remember the wonderful smiles the Fijian women had and how delicious their bread was.

[Pravda]

9 minutes ago, sanuk711 said:

How will that affect the average (retired expat) if anything he will be better off.....But there were many people writing it off in the 97 crash--worse than this....and they were wrong

 

 

How will the average retired expat be better off? 

 

 

[BritManToo]

5 minutes ago, Pravda said:

How will the average retired expat be better off? 

The less of us there are, the easier and quicker it is to get our extensions.

Before COVID I used to fly to Saigon for my VISA cos I couldn't stand the queues in CM immigration.

During COVID I can walk right in to CM immigration and be seen within 30 minutes.

Edited May 9, 2021 by BritManToo

[The Fugitive]

On 5/7/2021 at 2:34 PM, buffallobill said:

I was in the UK from last March, until January, working for the Ambulance service, I met dozens of people with Covid, and one of my colleagues nearly died from it. 

My next door neighbour (U.K.) tested positive for Covid-19 after a holiday to Turkey when the first regulations were lifted. His wife tested negative but neither suffered any symptoms.

[sanuk711]

29 minutes ago, Pravda said:

How will the average retired expat be better off? 

Well if your prediction is correct and "Thailand is Toast" The Baht crashes - "Most" retired expats are on a fixed income from a foreign country, therefor their income increases. If the tourist do not return, as you say -then hotels etc will have to adjust prices to suit the local incomes.  If you ask people who have lived here for some years, the usual answer is--yes it was better before the Boom......

[Pravda]

1 hour ago, sanuk711 said:

Well if your prediction is correct and "Thailand is Toast" The Baht crashes - "Most" retired expats are on a fixed income from a foreign country, therefor their income increases. If the tourist do not return, as you say -then hotels etc will have to adjust prices to suit the local incomes.  If you ask people who have lived here for some years, the usual answer is--yes it was better before the Boom......

 

As if it works like that.

 

Most likely it will be unaffordable health insurance for retired expats (even now it's almost impossible to insure certain age group) thanks to yearly covid strains. This is an endemic.

 

Much more difficult visa runs for those without money in the bank. Vaccine passports at the minimum.

 

Already they are adding 300 baht for those pesky tourists. I predict money in the bank requirement will double to 1.6 million thanks to inflation.

 

But I believe it will somehow get better for Chinese expats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sanuk711]

27 minutes ago, Pravda said:

Much more difficult visa runs for those without money in the bank. Vaccine passports at the minimum.

So basically your predictions are just the usual doom and gloom---even though your first one that its all going to Toast and will crash, should mean that they would be happy with more foreign income not less---

 

1/ "Much more difficult Visa runs for those without money in the bank"

Well it shouldn't  be difficult to have 400K+ if your married 800K+ banked, if your not. So you feel that they will just pick those that have a guaranteed income stream.   = Just your wild guess on that.

 

2/ Tougher Visa--- This of course goes completely against what has been happening in Thailand over the last 20 years or so--- as it just gets easier.

 

3/ "Vaccine passports at the minimum."...thats probably going to be a world order--not just Thailand, and I think with merit---why not, you get your Jab you get your passport. Makes sense.

 

4/ "Already they are adding 300 baht for those pesky tourists"--To silly to comment on.

 

5/  "But I believe it will somehow get better for Chinese expats."---Yer lets save the racism till last, better for the Indians expats too & maybe even the Arab expats, 

Anyone but us white skin fellers , we get picked on all the time.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

Well if your prediction is correct and "Thailand is Toast" The Baht crashes - "Most" retired expats are on a fixed income from a foreign country, therefor their income increases. If the tourist do not return, as you say -then hotels etc will have to adjust prices to suit the local incomes.  If you ask people who have lived here for some years, the usual answer is--yes it was better before the Boom......

Way, way, way better.

[Lacessit]

On 5/5/2021 at 9:01 PM, tomazbodner said:

 

Ah yes... the swimming pool is closed. Not like I ever used it. But nice pool...

I hate it when they close the pool, because with the chlorine they are probably the safest place on the planet to be. Yes, I know, it's the partygoers that gather around them.

[covidiot]

7 hours ago, Pravda said:

When they finally manage to vaccinate everyone in 2 years (optimistic view), how will they deal with ongoing strains? 

I've seen people online say the vaccination campaign is a bad idea because of all the mutations. Things might be a mess for years everywhere.

Not to mention Mr. Vaccine himself Bill Gates just got divorced. I don't know if you're superstitious like me, but that's a bad omen!

[talahtnut]

2 hours ago, covidiot said:

I've seen people online say the vaccination campaign is a bad idea because of all the mutations. Things might be a mess for years everywhere.

Not to mention Mr. Vaccine himself Bill Gates just got divorced. I don't know if you're superstitious like me, but that's a bad omen!

A bad omen, indeed it is.

Transmission of CV-19 occurs mostly through news broadcasting.

The virus settles in between the ears and affects rational thinking.

Symptoms may include hyper-vigilant cleansing, distrust of friends

and neighbors, and an overwhelming urge to give up basic human rights

for the perception of safety. Individuals with larger vacuums between

the ears are at higher risk.

 

[covidiot]

46 minutes ago, talahtnut said:

A bad omen, indeed it is.

Transmission of CV-19 occurs mostly through news broadcasting.

The virus settles in between the ears and affects rational thinking.

Symptoms may include hyper-vigilant cleansing, distrust of friends

and neighbors, and an overwhelming urge to give up basic human rights

for the perception of safety. Individuals with larger vacuums between

the ears are at higher risk.

Don't hold back.

Tell us what you really think about covid.

 

[Leaver]

10 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

If you ask people who have lived here for some years, the usual answer is--yes it was better before the Boom......

 

It was the "boom" that allowed all the facilities that expats enjoy here to be built.  Eg. golf courses.  

 

Western tourists were in decline here, pre covid, and that's tomorrow's expat.  

 

It's not improbable that as western expats continue to decline here, so do the facilities that they enjoy, as there simply isn't enough expats to support all the businesses / facilities that were created when Thailand was "booming" with western tourists.  

[Pravda]

10 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

So basically your predictions are just the usual doom and gloom---even though your first one that its all going to Toast and will crash, should mean that they would be happy with more foreign income not less---

 

1/ "Much more difficult Visa runs for those without money in the bank"

Well it shouldn't  be difficult to have 400K+ if your married 800K+ banked, if your not. So you feel that they will just pick those that have a guaranteed income stream.   = Just your wild guess on that.

 

2/ Tougher Visa--- This of course goes completely against what has been happening in Thailand over the last 20 years or so--- as it just gets easier.

 

3/ "Vaccine passports at the minimum."...thats probably going to be a world order--not just Thailand, and I think with merit---why not, you get your Jab you get your passport. Makes sense.

 

4/ "Already they are adding 300 baht for those pesky tourists"--To silly to comment on.

 

5/  "But I believe it will somehow get better for Chinese expats."---Yer lets save the racism till last, better for the Indians expats too & maybe even the Arab expats, 

Anyone but us white skin fellers , we get picked on all the time.

 

 

So you didn't like what I wrote. Fine. 

 

Meanwhile Thai governm has big plans for digital nomads while in the survey they conducted Vancouver, Canada out of all places came number 1 as favorite digital nomad destination. 

[kynikoi]

On 5/5/2021 at 8:41 PM, covidiot said:

pandemic will end 

 

I don't believe so. I think Thailand will forever have a previsa document requirement. It already has. It will continue some form of quarantine based on new strains. This will prop up crony hoteliers. PPE has become an industry and the people that have manuvered into position will pay to keep in place. The medical industry will love all the testing. Boosters perpetually. AOT will make money on testing incoming passengers.

 

Lockdowns make it easy to control people especially demonstrators.

 

The excuse will be new strains.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, kynikoi said:

 

I don't believe so. I think Thailand will forever have a previsa document requirement. It already has. It will continue some form of quarantine based on new strains. This will prop up crony hoteliers. PPE has become an industry and the people that have manuvered into position will pay to keep in place. The medical industry will love all the testing. Boosters perpetually. AOT will make money on testing incoming passengers.

 

Lockdowns make it easy to control people especially demonstrators.

 

The excuse will be new strains.

A lot of posters seem intent on attacking the Thai government, but while some Thais may have issues with it I never had a problem ( other than ever increasing visa extension regulations ) caused by the government. I just wish the government where I live was as hands off when it comes to regulating every thing we do, ie the nanny state.

The Thai government largely stayed out of my hair and left me and mine to get on with life as we made it.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/9/2021 at 2:54 PM, Pravda said:

I personally think Thailand is toast.

Why?

Thailand will survive, IMO, and so long as farangs have enough money they'll probably be OK.

[Rimmer]

Inflammatory/personal attack and replies removed

[Brierley]

4 hours ago, kynikoi said:

 

I don't believe so. I think Thailand will forever have a previsa document requirement. It already has. It will continue some form of quarantine based on new strains. This will prop up crony hoteliers. PPE has become an industry and the people that have manuvered into position will pay to keep in place. The medical industry will love all the testing. Boosters perpetually. AOT will make money on testing incoming passengers.

 

Lockdowns make it easy to control people especially demonstrators.

 

The excuse will be new strains.

You may be correct about the pre-visa but I don't think so, tourism is too important and pre-visa's are hinderance. What is laughable though is the scenario regarding PPE suppliers, medical testing fees and crony hoteliers, wherever did you dream those up from! The total value of those things is insignificant compared to the value of tourism, the things you mention would never reach 1% of GDP let alone the 18% of GDP that is tourism. FWIW I think the pre-visa will disappear quite quickly but the insurance element will remain, the gov. has been looking to to implement health insurance for a long time and will help ease the strain on unpaid hospital bills by tourists.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

It was the "boom" that allowed all the facilities that expats enjoy here to be built.  Eg. golf courses.  

 

Western tourists were in decline here, pre covid, and that's tomorrow's expat.  

 

It's not improbable that as western expats continue to decline here, so do the facilities that they enjoy, as there simply isn't enough expats to support all the businesses / facilities that were created when Thailand was "booming" with western tourists.  

LOL. Given that I have never wanted to play golf, every golf course in the country could be converted to rice paddy and I'd not shed a tear.

As for the horrid concrete hotels that ruined all the nice beaches, I'd gladly push the lever to blow each and every one of them to dust.

Far as I know, all the other facilities are used by Thais as much as by farangs.

I quite enjoyed living in a Thai area with hardly another farang to be seen.

[Brierley]

On 5/9/2021 at 9:54 AM, Pravda said:

 

I personally think Thailand is toast.

 

It was good while it lasted. Adios. Tourism will be decimated.

 

I think baht will take a bath, 

 

You don't mention the four horse men of the apocalypse, will they be coming also? 

[kynikoi]

17 minutes ago, Brierley said:

You may be correct about the pre-visa but I don't think so, tourism is too important and pre-visa's are hinderance. What is laughable though is the scenario regarding PPE suppliers, medical testing fees and crony hoteliers, wherever did you dream those up from! The total value of those things is insignificant compared to the value of tourism, the things you mention would never reach 1% of GDP let alone the 18% of GDP that is tourism. FWIW I think the pre-visa will disappear quite quickly but the insurance element will remain, the gov. has been looking to to implement health insurance for a long time and will help ease the strain on unpaid hospital bills by tourists.

 

Why would you think this is some democratic decision? Crony capitalism as far as the eye can see. You live in a authoritarian oligarchy where the only purpose of government is to serve the plutarchs and their camp followers.

[kynikoi]

29 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

A lot of posters seem intent on attacking the Thai government, but while some Thais may have issues with it I never had a problem ( other than ever increasing visa extension regulations ) caused by the government. I just wish the government where I live was as hands off when it comes to regulating every thing we do, ie the nanny state.

The Thai government largely stayed out of my hair and left me and mine to get on with life as we made it.

 

Students been demonstrating for months and you're whining about some nebulous 'nanny state'.

 

Wake up

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, kynikoi said:

 

Students been demonstrating for months and you're whining about some nebulous 'nanny state'.

 

Wake up

Students are always complaining about something, and in LOS it's not as though they are being killed like in a neighbouring country.

I give the present demonstrators as much credence as the red shirts a few years ago ie not much.

[Leaver]

22 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given that I have never wanted to play golf, every golf course in the country could be converted to rice paddy and I'd not shed a tear.

 

That was only one example. 

 

Picture businesses catering for whatever you are into, maybe gyms etc, and you will see what I mean.  

 

22 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

As for the horrid concrete hotels that ruined all the nice beaches, I'd gladly push the lever to blow each and every one of them to dust.

 

Sure, but not going to happen.

 

That ruined beach will be all Thailand has to offer in the future.

 

22 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Far as I know, all the other facilities are used by Thais as much as by farangs.

 

Thai standards are usually lower, except for the HiSo Thai's.  How is that going to attract "high end" tourism?  

[kynikoi]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Students are always complaining about something, and in LOS it's not as though they are being killed like in a neighbouring country.

I give the present demonstrators as much credence as the red shirts a few years ago ie not much.

 

I'm alright Jack.

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

That was only one example. 

 

Picture businesses catering for whatever you are into, maybe gyms etc, and you will see what I mean.  

 

 

Sure, but not going to happen.

 

That ruined beach will be all Thailand has to offer in the future.

 

 

Thai standards are usually lower, except for the HiSo Thai's.  How is that going to attract "high end" tourism?  

It's not, and IMO I can't see LOS ever being a destination for rich tourists. I hope not too, as I don't want even more ruination to suck up to people that think they are special.

I know it's not going to happen, but if I had a magic wand I'd use it to return Thailand to the early 1990s, which IMO was the golden age of tourism in LOS.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/10/2021 at 2:20 AM, Leaver said:

 

It was the "boom" that allowed all the facilities that expats enjoy here to be built.  Eg. golf courses.  

 

Western tourists were in decline here, pre covid, and that's tomorrow's expat.  

 

It's not improbable that as western expats continue to decline here, so do the facilities that they enjoy, as there simply isn't enough expats to support all the businesses / facilities that were created when Thailand was "booming" with western tourists.  

To be pedantic, only certain areas were "booming" with western tourists. It was possible to go to many wonderful places in which the only farang was myself. Happy days, those.

[GinBoy2]

It'll be very shortly be 2 years since we last saw out house in Thailand.

 

My wife's grandma died, 2 nieces and nephews married missed it all.

 

We're both fully vaccinated and as the light at the end of the tunnel seems to be here for us, I'm not sure that the inverse isn't happening in Thailand