Expert says Thailand's surge in Covid-19 cases is 'failure of the winner'

[webfact]

Thailand logged an all-time high of 9,635 new infections on May 17, 2021.PHOTO: AFP

 

 

Tan Hui Yee

Indochina Bureau Chief

 

One week before Songkran, Thailand's traditional new year in mid-April, health officials in Bangkok detected the presence of the coronavirus B117 first identified in Britain. This highly contagious variant was found in a cluster of patients who had visited entertainment venues in the capital.

 

To reduce the risk of it spreading, the government banned the splashing of water - an annual ritual - and cancelled all public events which might cause people to gather.

 

But, wary of the economic costs of a lockdown before the long holiday, it did not stop people from travelling back to their home provinces for family gatherings.

 

Full story: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/expert-says-thailands-surge-in-covid-19-cases-is-failure-of-the-winner

 

-- © Copyright The Straits Times 2021-05-22

 

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[ukrules]

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

To reduce the risk of it spreading, the government banned the splashing of water

 

This would appear to have been a little bit of a mistake. They should have shut it down, but they know best.

 

Maybe they will get the chance to do the right thing in the future because this is not going away any time soon.

 

Whatever limiting factor (combination of temperature, humidity / absolute humidity, etc) which prevented wide scale spread last year appears to no longer be effective against the current generations of the virus.

 

They got lucky last year, this year not so much. Now they reap the whirlwind.

[ezzra]

At first it seems that Thailand has weathered the fist wave of the pandemic well which led to a false sense of complacency that all will be well to let people to travel freely all over the country this Songkran, well, how wrong they were...

[JonnyF]

To use a football analogy, they started well, celebrated victory at half time and are now getting hammered in the second half. 

 

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. 

 

A change of management would help, but alas this isn't football.

[bkk6060]

The article seems to blame it on the people.  While the government openly encouraged people to travel and enjoy during Songkran.  Disgusting hypocrisy.

[ThailandRyan]

Thailand, the hub of FACE. Blame thusurper, never admit fault, and continue on doing the same same but different day, while never learning from the past or admitting mistakes.  The failure of the vaccine program is also born of complacency and thinking they had defeated the virus already.  Unfortunately they have reaped what they sowed.  I feel sad for the people, not this government of usurpers.

[mtls2005]

Hard to understand how Thailand is a "winner" when the match hasn't even reached half-time.

 

Do they hand out trophies for leading at the half?

 

I'd give Thailand a "participation medal".

 

 

 

 

[jacko45k]

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

The article seems to blame it on the people.  While the government openly encouraged people to travel and enjoy during Songkran.  Disgusting hypocrisy.

Well not peculiar to Thailand.....

The UK did not implement closures in the face of rapidly growing infection numbers, to allow a semblance of Christmas to occur. 

The likely thought process might well have been that the already underway vaccination program would kick in, but the UK was in a bad way by early January... 4000 people daily were going to hospital, with the paper crowns still on. 

 

The worry is Thailand has not really got the vaccination program moving, and is dependent on a poorer vaccine, and promises of a domestic supplier that has yet to bear fruit. 

[Freeduhdum]

Peculiar headline "Failure of the Winner," as if someone is rooting for failure of Thailand, in this case the fact that there have been low numbers for 14 months since the inception of covid19. The Bureau CHIEF their seems to have a particular slant or point he wants to get across from the outset? A bit of a set up for the reader maybe?

Keep in mind, increased testing = increased numbers. That's just a point of fact...

 

As the article points out, the bulk of new "cases" are in the prison system, but then seems to suggest that complacency and poor hygiene, in the regular population and government policies is the major factor. That claim doesn't even meet the anecdotal test. Does he live in Thailand? How would he know, is that what someone is telling him, some subjective or even politically motivated bias perhaps? I would argue, if anything, the general population, as this has evolved, have gotten more diligent not less. I mean seriously, are using some alcohol pumps at the bank and the mall, and checking in on your smart phone and some parties really going to have a dramatic effect?

One thing is for sure, and IMO is very common sensical, if you're going to test more, like in the prison system that has likely been spreading this around since the beginning, you're going to get more "cases." Imagine if the entire population right now, who by the way are not dropping over dead like we were led to believe they were in China, were PCR tested... there would be millions of "cases." Again, increase your testing and you will increase not only "cases" but deaths. 

One final point, are all of those deaths being properly autopsied by a pathologist to determine death, is grandpa who finally died of his colon cancer coming up positive on a test, and is thus being counted as Covid being the cause?

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

Peculiar headline "Failure of the Winner," as if someone is rooting for failure of Thailand, in this case the fact that there have been low numbers for 14 months since the inception of covid19. The Bureau CHIEF their seems to have a particular slant or point he wants to get across from the outset? A bit of a set up for the reader maybe?

Keep in mind, increased testing = increased numbers. That's just a point of fact...

 

As the article points out, the bulk of new "cases" are in the prison system, but then seems to suggest that complacency and poor hygiene, in the regular population and government policies is the major factor. That claim doesn't even meet the anecdotal test. Does he live in Thailand? How would he know, is that what someone is telling him, some subjective or even politically motivated bias perhaps? I would argue, if anything, the general population, as this has evolved, have gotten more diligent not less. I mean seriously, are using some alcohol pumps at the bank and the mall, and checking in on your smart phone and some parties really going to have a dramatic effect?

One thing is for sure, and IMO is very common sensical, if you're going to test more, like in the prison system that has likely been spreading this around since the beginning, you're going to get more "cases." Imagine if the entire population right now, who by the way are not dropping over dead like we were led to believe they were in China, were PCR tested... there would be millions of "cases." Again, increase your testing and you will increase not only "cases" but deaths. 

One final point, are all of those deaths being properly autopsied by a pathologist to determine death, is grandpa who finally died of his colon cancer coming up positive on a test, and is thus being counted as Covid being the cause?

A surge in ICU bed use is enough proof that the increase in cases was real. As for grandpa...

lots of covid minimizers don't understand that comorbidities are reported with every death. If you shoot yourself in the head but had diabetes, it will be reported as a comorbidity on a death certificate. 

[ryane66]

45 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Well not peculiar to Thailand.....

The UK did not implement closures in the face of rapidly growing infection numbers, to allow a semblance of Christmas to occur. 

The likely thought process might well have been that the already underway vaccination program would kick in, but the UK was in a bad way by early January... 4000 people daily were going to hospital, with the paper crowns still on. 

 

The worry is Thailand has not really got the vaccination program moving, and is dependent on a poorer vaccine, and promises of a domestic supplier that has yet to bear fruit. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/covid-surging-in-seychelles-worlds-most-vaccinated-country-why/100151306?fbclid=IwAR2gqaw7gHuGTfEo4FEIFBveMA5ylVL-bNiKqi_520tU-E1P-sl1VKFZ37U

[Freeduhdum]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

A surge in ICU bed use

You happen to have a link for this... I would seriously like to see this... Thanks for pointing this out. 

[MasterBaker]

winning, tiger blood

[Freeduhdum]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If you shoot yourself in the head but had diabetes, it will be reported as a comorbidity on a death certificate. 

So... If you shoot yourself in the head and subsequently come up with a positive PCR test at autopsy, will you be counted within the officially announced covid numbers as a covid death? Or will you be recorded in the suicide by trauma category?

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

You happen to have a link for this... I would seriously like to see this... Thanks for pointing this out. 

Thailand Set to Run Out of ICU Beds in 19 Days as COVID-19 Cases Reach Record Highs

Thailand Set to Run Out of ICU Beds in 19 Days as COVID-19 Cases Reach Record Highs (newsweek.com)

 

There was also an article in the Bangkok Post dated April 23 but links to that source are prohibited.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Freeduhdum said:

So... If you shoot yourself in the head and subsequently come up with a positive PCR test at autopsy, will you be counted within the officially announced covid numbers as a covid death? Or will you be recorded in the suicide by trauma category?

The cause of death will be gunshot wound to the brain. Covid, like any other preexisting condition, will be listed as a comorbidity.

[Excel]

4 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

So... If you shoot yourself in the head and subsequently come up with a positive PCR test at autopsy, will you be counted within the officially announced covid numbers as a covid death? Or will you be recorded in the suicide by trauma category?

Depends. If Thai reported as a covid death I suspect. If a foreigner then no doubt suicide.

[ThailandRyan]

21 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

As the article points out, the bulk of new "cases" are in the prison system,

Which in itself is false, as new clusters are breaking out and being found outside of the prisons.  The article leaves a lot to be desired unfortunately and is written from a perspective it seems of playing one against the other when it comes to who is truly at fault for allowing the cases to continue onward and things that were done and were not done.

[jacko45k]

3 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

So... If you shoot yourself in the head and subsequently come up with a positive PCR test at autopsy, will you be counted within the officially announced covid numbers as a covid death? Or will you be recorded in the suicide by trauma category?

I do not know that they are automatically doing Covid tests on corpses, or autopsy subjects with obvious trauma injuries. To suggest such without basis is speculative.  It is the UK phrase 'died within 28 days of a positive Covid test' which might suggest an asymptomatic person, who fell under a bus becomes a Covid death. I  would suspect that is not the case, but actually  do not know the processes that prevent this. I doubt a doctor signing a death certificate would do that. 

[Freeduhdum]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Thailand Set to Run Out of ICU Beds in 19 Days as COVID-19 Cases Reach Record Highs

Thailand Set to Run Out of ICU Beds in 19 Days as COVID-19 Cases Reach Record Highs (newsweek.com)

 

There was also an article in the Bangkok Post dated April 23 but links to that source are prohibited.

Thanks for the article... Quote from the article:

"In Bangkok, which has the highest number of reported cases, there are only 69 empty ICU beds left out of approximately 400. At the current rate of demand, that equates to only enough beds for the next six to eight days."

This article is from April 23rd. Question: Are the ICU's now all full? And a comment:

I used to work in the ICU in the states, it was normal to run the hospital at about an 80-90 percent full rate. That is normal.. the article indicates on April 23rd that it is about about a 17% full rate... that is normal. 

Yes, I remain dubious, but don't skewer me, just pointing out the facts. 
 

[khunjeff]

28 minutes ago, Freeduhdum said:

Does he live in Thailand? How would he know, is that what someone is telling him, some subjective or even politically motivated bias perhaps?

 

The "expert" lives in Thailand and is personally involved in Thailand's Covid response, at least according to the linked article:

 

"Professor Vip Viprakasit from Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital at Mahidol University called the rising infections a "failure of the winner".

 

Speaking in his personal capacity, he noted that Thailand was hailed for its impressive performance during the first wave of the coronavirus last year.

 

"However we kind of relaxed in terms of self-control, not just in policy but on a country-wide scale," the professor, who volunteers with the government's Covid-19 effort, told The Straits Times. "People became relaxed on personal hygiene measures, like wearing masks, using alcohol, and checking in. They had parties."

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

But, wary of the economic costs of a lockdown before the long holiday, it did not stop people from travelling back to their home provinces for family gatherings

And the economic cost of doing nothing was????

Ohhhh still counting.

[tifino]

 any country boasting it's No1 for evading the wuhan

- then becomes the tall poppy to be taken down - by attracting everyone to go 'shelter' there...

taking along their virus with them

[cclub75]

Nothing could be more wrong than this "winner" idea... In 2020.... the virus was merely present in the whole South-East Asia (compared to Europe, America).

 

So it's not because this country or that one "did better" and "won"...

 

The virus has its own life, cycles... And all those "decisions" (ban alcohol, close this but not that, open shopping but close parks, close market for 3 days, close then reopen restaurants, etc.)... have in reality a marginal effect on the virus.

 

In 2021, the virus has mutated. It became more infectious, and managed to find its way onto the population in SEA, more than the original Wuhan version.

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

 

This would appear to have been a little bit of a mistake. They should have shut it down, but they know best.

 

Maybe they will get the chance to do the right thing in the future because this is not going away any time soon.

 

Whatever limiting factor (combination of temperature, humidity / absolute humidity, etc) which prevented wide scale spread last year appears to no longer be effective against the current generations of the virus.

 

They got lucky last year, this year not so much. Now they reap the whirlwind.

By “reaping the whirlwind “, you mean the current 2,000 infections per day, mostly concentrated in the Bangkok area....

[JamieM]

2 hours ago, ezzra said:

At first it seems that Thailand has weathered the fist wave of the pandemic well which led to a false sense of complacency that all will be well to let people to travel freely all over the country this Songkran, well, how wrong they were...

They were too busy patting themselves on the back about what a great job they were doing, whilst simultaneously gloating that the west should take note, when what they should have been is stocking up on vaccines in preparedness for the inevitable. 

[JamieM]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

The worry is Thailand has not really got the vaccination program moving, and is dependent on a poorer vaccine, and promises of a domestic supplier that has yet to bear fruit. 

It has yet to bear fruit because they didn't want to secure enough western vaccine even a (not-for-profit) vaccine at cost price.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/23/oxford-astrazeneca-results-covid-vaccine-developing-countries

 

Probably because China wouldn't like it.

 

Now they have lots of sinovax, which no Thai person that I have spoken to wants to have injected into their arms. All the Thai's I have spoken to are trying to source western vaccines, and who can blame them? why should they trust the CCP? they don't have a very good reputation for being honest about anything and are currently doing terrible things to ethnic groups in Xinjiang.

 

 

[SoilSpoil]

The Thai health authorities had 1 year time to purchase test kits, oxygen supplies  medical equipment and vaccines to combat the unavoidable. They were 1 year ahead of the rest.They haven't, so failed its people miserably. 

[mtls2005]

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

To use a football analogy, they started well, celebrated victory at half time and are now getting hammered in the second half. 

 

Superbowl LI

[Pravda]

So many experts....