True infection figures are 4x, deaths 1.5 higher of officials

[internationalism]

According to the leading doctor from Thonburi hospitals, true infections are 4x higher.

True numbers of dead are 1.5x higher from those government figures:

 

"Dr. Boon Vanasin, chairman of Thonburi Healthcare Group PCL told me on Wednesday ... he believes the real number of infected people in Thailand is four times the government figures due to the government’s limited capacities to carry out case finding tests. ... Boon also suspects the real fatalities are 1.5 times higher."

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/opinion/2021/06/05/opinion-losing-faith-in-thai-govts-timely-inoculation-abilities/

[Caldera]

If that's true, that's excellent news, as it would mean that the mortality rate is extremely low.

[Jeffr2]

5 hours ago, Caldera said:

If that's true, that's excellent news, as it would mean that the mortality rate is extremely low.

Umm...mortalites are also under counted. They've said this for a long time.

[Pattaya Spotter]

5 hours ago, Caldera said:

If that's true, that's excellent news, as it would mean that the mortality rate is extremely low.

Exactly...if true, the deaths should be 4x as well. The mortality rate would be unaffected by inadequate testing.

[atpeace]

41 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Exactly...if true, the deaths should be 4x as well. The mortality rate would be unaffected by inadequate testing.

 Little brain dead tonight but that makes no sense.   From the beginning it has been a widely held opinion throughout the world that cases are much higher.  Deaths are a little easier to determine but could be over or understated.  This doctors opinion is they are   1.5x higher which drops the mortality rate substantially if cases are 4x higher.  

[Pattaya Spotter]

23 minutes ago, atpeace said:

 Little brain dead tonight but that makes no sense.   From the beginning it has been a widely held opinion throughout the world that cases are much higher.  Deaths are a little easier to determine but could be over or understated.  This doctors opinion is they are   1.5x higher which drops the mortality rate substantially if cases are 4x higher.  

Am I missing something...the doctor is saying the case count is closer to 700,000 (175,000 official count) and deaths 1820 (1213 official count) for a mortality rate of .003 (a third of one-percent)? That doesn't seem right. The worldwide average mortality rate ranges between one and two percent, with Thailand just under one percent using the official numbers.

[rabas]

14 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Am I missing something...the doctor is saying the case count is closer to 700,000 (175,000 official count) and deaths 1820 (1213 official count) for a mortality rate of .003 (a third of one-percent)? That doesn't seem right. The worldwide average mortality rate ranges between one and two percent, with Thailand just under one percent using the official numbers.

 

He may be is talking about now, not from the start.  Either way, at least double the recorded cases is normal globally and recent studies show estimated true deaths almost double those recorded, estimated at 7.1 million.   So what he is saying is not far off from expected.  I agree that 4X cases seems high relative to 1.5x for fatalities. 

 

Taking case fatality rate as (deaths)/(deaths+recovered) for just the 3rd wave (UK variant)  its about 1.2%, which is smack on. 

 

All said though, Thailand seems to be falling behind the curve with these higher numbers, particularly with many clusters that could have been found earlier. 

[CharlieH]

Oh come on, the only that you can be sure is "True" in Thailand is the telecommunications company ! Anything else is ........well, whatever they want it to be, that day.

[Jeffr2]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/21/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask#who-covid-deaths-excess

 

Virus deaths are probably two to three times more than official records, the W.H.O. says.

 

Deaths from Covid-19 and Covid-related causes are likely to be two to three times the number that countries have recorded in their official data, the World Health Organization said on Friday.

 

Some six to eight million people may have now died from Covid-19 or its effects since the start of the pandemic, compared with 3.4 million deaths recorded in countries’ official reporting, Dr. Samira Asma, assistant director of the W.H.O.’s data division, told reporters.

 

The W.H.O. also estimates that at least three million people may have died from Covid-19 in 2020, compared with 1.8 million recorded in official data, the W.H.O. reported in annual statistics released on Friday.

[rabas]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/21/world/covid-vaccine-coronavirus-mask#who-covid-deaths-excess

 

Virus deaths are probably two to three times more than official records, the W.H.O. says.

 

Deaths from Covid-19 and Covid-related causes are likely to be two to three times the number that countries have recorded in their official data, the World Health Organization said on Friday.

 

Some six to eight million people may have now died from Covid-19 or its effects since the start of the pandemic, compared with 3.4 million deaths recorded in countries’ official reporting, Dr. Samira Asma, assistant director of the W.H.O.’s data division, told reporters.

 

The W.H.O. also estimates that at least three million people may have died from Covid-19 in 2020, compared with 1.8 million recorded in official data, the W.H.O. reported in annual statistics released on Friday.

NYTimes is now behind a pay-wall for me.

 

Here is the original research behind WHO's numbers.  It's from the IMHE, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, at the University of Washington's Department of Global Health. They train scientists, policymakers, and the public in health metrics concepts, methods, and tools. They estimate total global covid deaths at 7.1 million.  Their study:

 

http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths

[atpeace]

Funny, this forum always goes down the same road.  A claim or an article is posted.  First the merits are discussed and then counter claims are made.  Now, is  where it goes off the rails, another person makes another valid counter point and guess what happens? Hmm, well the numbers are actually - yawn ( whatever number proves them correct )

 

How often does someone actually consider the counter argument without changing what the debate was about? Close to never.

 

Again, if cases are 4x higher and deaths are 1.5x higher, the death error multiplier does not have to be as the case multiplier  This is the claim poster made.  Nothing about death counts being off by the same number, that came later 555.  

 

I'm wrong all the time! Might even be wrong with what I wrote above.  Why is it so hard for individuals to get some gonads and admit when they are wrong???

[mtls2005]

With little testing (random, pooled, monitoring), and a preponderance of asymptomatic cases, it "feels" like the real infection rate is five to even ten times the published figures. Deaths? No clue. 1.5X seems as good as any guess.

 

 

[atpeace]

16 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Umm...mortalites are also under counted. They've said this for a long time.

Not to be an idiot.  A little maybe.   Why don't you send him an article about Peru and then get irate when he tells you it has nothing to do with the topic. Remember me? We were discussing India's death rate and you kept sending articles about Peru. You were so irate, I really think you thought that Peru was part of India.  

[Jeffr2]

18 hours ago, atpeace said:

Not to be an idiot.  A little maybe.   Why don't you send him an article about Peru and then get irate when he tells you it has nothing to do with the topic. Remember me? We were discussing India's death rate and you kept sending articles about Peru. You were so irate, I really think you thought that Peru was part of India.  

Ummm....having spent months in both India and Peru, I do believe I know a bit about them. LOL.

 

Just trying to prove that the mortality rate pushed by covid deniers is based on faulty data.  As proven recently by Peru, and admitted to by pretty much every other country globally.  Cases and deaths are under counted.

[atpeace]

52 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Ummm....having spent months in both India and Peru, I do believe I know a bit about them. LOL.

 

Just trying to prove that the mortality rate pushed by covid deniers is based on faulty data.  As proven recently by Peru, and admitted to by pretty much every other country globally.  Cases and deaths are under counted.

Hard to just say you were wrong and had a temper tantrum over a trivial matter?

 

I had no idea you lived in Peru nor that your Peru references were in regards to India admitting there numbers were wrong.  I simply stated the article has "no" admission by India.  You then just lost it.  

 

My advice, calm down and try to learn first and then type.  When was the last time you were wrong on any matter of significance?

 

I could change your profile signature:

Great minds are open to new ideas and simple minds are controlled by their ego.

[Jeffr2]

10 minutes ago, atpeace said:

Hard to just say you were wrong and had a temper tantrum over a trivial matter?

 

I had no idea you lived in Peru nor that your Peru references were in regards to India admitting there numbers were wrong.  I simply stated the article has "no" admission by India.  You then just lost it.  

 

My advice, calm down and try to learn first and then type.  When was the last time you were wrong on any matter of significance?

 

I could change your profile signature:

Great minds are open to new ideas and simple minds are controlled by their ego.

Clueless....

[Scott]

An inflammatory post has been removed.  Keep it civil or face a suspension.

 

[Ventenio]

On 6/5/2021 at 1:36 PM, internationalism said:

According to the leading doctor from Thonburi hospitals, true infections are 4x higher.

impossible!!!

 

TVF members have quoted numbers down to ONE person every day!!!! as if it is the word of God....as if that exists.  Quoting numbers how China hasn't had a case in months!!!!  all as if they are the all-knowing!!!  hahahahhahahahahha

 

2,398  and then 100 posts saying it's now 2,402.    

 

and now EVERYONE who all these "facts" before now are quiet.  or say this is false

 

can't win with humans.  brain no big....brain no work good... no no.   think no no

[Jeffr2]

13 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

impossible!!!

 

TVF members have quoted numbers down to ONE person every day!!!! as if it is the word of God....as if that exists.  Quoting numbers how China hasn't had a case in months!!!!  all as if they are the all-knowing!!!  hahahahhahahahahha

 

2,398  and then 100 posts saying it's now 2,402.    

 

and now EVERYONE who all these "facts" before now are quiet.  or say this is false

 

can't win with humans.  brain no big....brain no work good... no no.   think no no

Calm down.  I've not seen anyone say China hasn't had a case in months.  P.S. They've got a major port under lock down now.  A massive lock down.