Expert: High COVID Cases Justify Lockdown

[berrec]

Thailand 4.0 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Gandtee said:

Maybe because people were living with it, thinking they had a bad cold. About that time, a friend of mine stayed in bed with what he thought was flu. On reflection he now thinks it could have been covid. Who knows? There must be many infected, with minor symptoms and going about their business oblivious.  

Critical care beds weren't being stressed back then. I doubt that people were staying in their beds when suffering severe, painful, and life threatening symptoms. Is that what people usually do in those cases?

[aboctok]

7 hours ago, connda said:

Fourth Wave.  Fourth Wave.  Be frightened!

Waves sound scary so unabashedly promote them far and wide.  "Wave 4 is here!!!  Cower.  Stay at home!"

Really.  Don't worry about reality like Wave 3 never crested let alone made a trough which a Wave 4 would build out of.
Nope.  Scare the commoners by telling them that the rising slope of Wave 3 is now <drum roll> actually Wave 4!  "Hocus-Pocus Presto Magic Sha-zam!" <pulls Wave 4 out of a hat; slide whistle; cymbal crash; audience gasps!>
Obviously he (and those government, academic, and corporate entities he directly associates with) think that the public are so buffalo-stupid that they'll buy it unconditionally.  Right?  (Well, many will - sad as that may be).
"Wave 4!  Hide under the bed!  Lock yourselves in the closet!
Delta! Delta! Delta!!!  Boo!"
Amazing.....

Err, maybe switch to Coke Zero?

[nowhereman]

16 hours ago, ezzra said:

27,000 infected in the UK yesterday and no lockdown, infect, in a few days the UK will be open to business as usual, what the UK health authorities knows that the Thai or even the Aussies don't? whom, in Australia enough for someone to sneeze to put the whole city into lockdown...

Not to forget,  UK is quite well vaccinated. Makes a huge difference.

[sezze]

Just now, nowhereman said:

Not to forget,  UK is quite well vaccinated. Makes a huge difference.

Yes , infected numbers is nothing without hospital admissions , or people dying . That is the big difference , while "small" numbers before were already a problem , since the hospitals were filling up very fast , including people in ICU and on ventilators , and staying there long time .

[englishoak]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

I don't think that your projection is valid. Vaccination is still ongoing and while over 60% of the total population has received at least one vaccination, there's still a lot more to go. And those who are already fully vaccinated tend to be older and less healthy.

Projections that are picked up and spread by media nearly  always showcase the worst case scenario as it always sells more news and it helps govs in control. There are no valid "projections" and anyone who has ever done them knows they are never even close, the same goofball who came up with the UK original said "projection" one Neil Ferguson ex sage  projected 1/2 million dead in the first 6 months in UK alone when it began, he had to resign in disgrace btw. A good example of an OTT "projection" . Like Bird Flu,HIV,Ebola etc etc projections in the past were all OTT too and proven flawed.

 

The older and more vulnerable in the UK have now mostly been vaccinated.The young ( below 30 ) are at minor risk and below 18 virtually zero. the young adult population are better off gaining full natural herd immunity from a proper variant instead of a bit of DNA code to produce spike.

 

What is unlikely in the UK imo is Cov cases spiking to even 50k let alone 100k a day, why ? self testing has already been introduced and 90% of the gen pop will not bother for long,  less random testing will be done and focus will move to testing only with symptoms.

 

Logistically as the PPE requirement and restrictions fade away so will self testing, self test kits supplies have already been cut back and will continue to be.  Other health issues are now more a concern in the UK.  Lack of health check ups, operations, early stage treatments etc  leading to increased serious illness treatment and care needs such as cancer Dementia etc. Mental health issues going forward for many especially the very young has and will increase.

 

The UK public have had enough too and those in gov and control are increasingly coming under fire when they are caught flouting their own rules plus the economy can only take so much. It is time to get on with life,  living with the cov risk can just be added to all the other things that "may" kill you.... That was always a certain at some future stage,the UK is now at that point.  

 

Bottom line, imo this current panic pandemic far as the UK Gov are concerned is all but over. Lets hope Thailand isnt far behind but suspect it'll well into 2023 before any sense of normality there returns. 

 

stay safe 

[NorthernRyland]

13 hours ago, Sandy Bottom said:

The survival rate is high, however long term there are several problems, according to CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html

"5 Ways the Flu Can Affect Your Health Even After You Feel Better"

https://www.health.com/condition/flu/flu-long-term-effects

 

"7 Surprising Health Complications From Cold and Flu
Sniffling, sneezing, and coughing are no surprise when we have a cold or the flu. Other complications, though fortunately rare, can be much more serious."

 

https://www.everydayhealth.com/cold-flu-pictures/suprising-health-complications-from-cold-and-flu.aspx

[Taboo2]

19 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

For almost an entire year , Thailand's covid deaths were between 0 and 3. How can you possibly say this is the 4th wave. I'd say it's the first. or second at most.

I think it is the first....Thailand never experienced any waves before and this is their wakeup call!

[NorthernRyland]

5 minutes ago, Taboo2 said:

Remember, there is a lot of Dry Wood in Thailand and Laos and Cambodia and Myanmmar....and the virus loves Dry Wood.

Cambodia has one of the youngest populations in the world (median age of 25.6 years!!) so I bet they will come out pretty good from all of this. 

[DoctorB]

7 hours ago, superal said:

Here is what is happening in the UK . By the 19th July when all covid restrictions are dropped , all who want the vaccine will have had it . The current rate of infection is doubling every 12 days and will hit around 100,00 infections per day by the end of the month . The infection rate will be exacerbated by the new freedom . The logic is indeed called herd immunity and will lead to some preventable deaths to those with underlying conditions and the unvaccinated . The UK government's logic is we will have to live with this new virus which is on a parallel with the flu , however the successful vaccination programme has led to a nation that the majority have a high level of immunity and although the infection rates will grow , the severity or potence of the virus has been diminished to such an extent that only a small percentage will have to be hospitalized .  I believe that the UK trend will be adopted globally along with annual vaccination boosters .   Vaccine production rates will grow to the level that there will not be a shortage as is now the case . 

There is also a view gaining ground in the UK that the daily reporting of case rates is unhelpful. Emphasis should be placed on outcomes; ie hospitalisation and death rates. Case rates should be used to plan to meet projected outcomes and not trumpeted daily in alarmist headlines. 

[The Cipher]

19 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

There is also a view gaining ground in the UK that the daily reporting of case rates is unhelpful.

I am surprised it took this long, to be honest. The myopic focus on case counts has been unhelpful all pandemic long and really only serves the function of scaring the general public.

[englishoak]

1 hour ago, The Cipher said:

I am surprised it took this long, to be honest. The myopic focus on case counts has been unhelpful all pandemic long and really only serves the function of scaring the general public.

From the point of view of  SAGE sub division SPI-B Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours ( its specific role  is influencing public perception  &  behaviour) That was  exactly the conclusion and reason case counts were used so frequently. The purpose was to scare and intimidate thus making the public more malleable and readily willing to accept  draconian measures, which would have otherwise met with more resistance and less effect

 

Right or wrong morally, in practice it seems to have worked on most.  

Edited July 7, 2021 by englishoak

[Stargeezr]

I believe that Thailand may start to get lots of people in the hospitals as the Delta variant is just starting to

spread through out Thailand. If the Peru variant is stronger, I am sure that it will reach Thailand as well, then

what ever wave it creates we will hear it in the news.   I have no plans to travel to Australia, New Zealand or Europe

until at least 80 percent of their populations have had their two shots and the cases of Covid are a lot less.

  This goes for Thailand as well. The government can try their sand boxes, and there will be the desperate or

brave travelers who will escape their hot countries like Dubai and Egypt etc. , but even my well travelled friends

are being cautious and staying in their home countries of Germany, Australia, USA, Canada, Norway, etc. Most of us

are not into all the rules and requirements that exist today, we are waiting for the future where travelers can be more relaxed.

Geezer

[lemonjelly]

All the politicians and their families have been vaccinated and they have enough financial assets to ride this out. The government has backing from a senate that is chosen by the government every 5 years. The government wins elections due to the senate backing every 4 years. 

[Whale]

Time to visit Tesco for an emergency stock of booze just in case. I don't drink much but I do enjoy what little I do drink and don't like the idea of being stranded without any.

[jacko45k]

17 hours ago, alation said:

Gee, that's painting a lot of hysteria, I know the the Indian strain is a lot easier to transfer but the statistics show that it's not as bad and the original covid 19. Anyway take care Thailand. 

Where did you come up with that little erroneous gem? 

[metisdead]

A post with a chart from an unknown source has been removed as well as the replies. Please provide a link to the source of information when posting.

[Lacessit]

17 hours ago, James105 said:

I could be wrong, but don’t Australians currently have complete freedom, albeit within Australia?  The only thing they cannot do is travel.   If you allowed those vaccinated the extra freedom to travel then it won’t be long before they start bringing back the virus when they return, and other than impose strict quarantine for vaccinated travellers this is unavoidable, therefore making travel unattractive and the motivation for vaccine removed.   Bit of a chicken and egg situation I think.  

No they do not. Parts of NSW and Queensland are in lockdown. AFAIK one cannot travel from NSW to Victoria currently.

[Lacessit]

18 hours ago, VBF said:

Rather than mandate vaccination, introduce "Vaccination Passports" whereby those who are vaccinated get their complete freedoms back, others must remain regulated. 

For example UK is considering allowing fully vaccinated people to enter the country without any form of quarantining; others may still have to be tested and / or quarantine.

IMO, right and proper - to those who complain that this is "discrimination"  Yes it is.......discrimination against anti-vax idiots! Now watch the Conspiracy Theorists huff and puff!!!!

 ????

I'm predicting criminals will develop a thriving trade in forged vaccination passports, just like they do with other documents.

[J Town]

5 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I'm predicting criminals will develop a thriving trade in forged vaccination passports, just like they do with other documents.

In a pre-internet world, that would work, and may still work in Thailand. International travel? Other countries will digitally see right through them.

[ABCbangkok]

On 7/6/2021 at 5:47 AM, snoop1130 said:

If this situation is allowed to persist, he said that the need for more hospital beds will increase steadily until the entire Thai health system collapses.

A real Einstein this one! Gee, he figured out that the Thai health care system can’t sustain the strain of increasing, out of control, COVID cases. A doctor no less!

 

I would to like know what rock this gentleman has been living under for the last 18 months.

[Lacessit]

6 minutes ago, J Town said:

In a pre-internet world, that would work, and may still work in Thailand. International travel? Other countries will digitally see right through them.

It's an arms race, criminals are quite proficient in the digital world as well. Evidence? Thefts of bitcoin.

[ABCbangkok]

23 hours ago, pizzachang said:

What is the survival rate for c19?

97.9%. The mortality rate which is 2.1% globally.

[sandyf]

14 hours ago, VBF said:

I think perhaps you should be looking at trends rather than actual numbers.

The UK infection rate is creeping up....but....the hospitalisation and death rates are plummeting. Also, those getting infected after having been vaccinated are much less sick than before vaccination. 

Based on that, IMO, the UK is doing it right with a hopefully bright future, but the future situation in Thailand is, sadly, unknown but predictably the trend will continue to increase until they vaccinate efficiently..

If you want to miss the point that is up to you. 

My point was about perception, nothing to do with vaccination levels or trends.

[sandyf]

15 hours ago, placeholder said:

I don't think that your projection is valid.

By definition projections have no validity so thoughts are arbitrary.

Only time will tell but the writing is on the wall, 3 hospitals in Scotland have declared "Code Black".

 

Two more hospitals have declared “code black” alerts in response to mounting numbers of coronavirus patients and absent staff members who have been forced to self-isolate.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-hospitals-code-black-scotland-b1880127.html

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

By definition projections have no validity so thoughts are arbitrary.

Only time will tell but the writing is on the wall, 3 hospitals in Scotland have declared "Code Black".

Tell that to insurance companies, among others.

[VBF]

5 hours ago, sandyf said:

If you want to miss the point that is up to you. 

My point was about perception, nothing to do with vaccination levels or trends.

It may be me, but how does perception matter? It's facts that are important, surely? 

[VBF]

6 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I'm predicting criminals will develop a thriving trade in forged vaccination passports, just like they do with other documents.

@J Town beat me to it, but it's much harder these days than it once was. Look how much harder it its to forge a modern "e-passport" than an old paper one.

Notice I I do not say impossible of course.

[VBF]

On 7/7/2021 at 7:33 AM, connda said:

So if you're vaccinated, popping positive is not important?
"Ok, sure.  Why not?"

^{Vaccines provide immunity?  Vaccines provide immunity?  Hummm?}
 

You really need to ask that?  Let me explain....Vaccination stops you getting sick with whatever disease you are vaccinated against. Or, if you do get sick, you don't get AS sick. So if we are ALL vaccinated....... get it now?????

[geisha]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I'm predicting criminals will develop a thriving trade in forged vaccination passports, just like they do with other documents.

Very difficult in Europe at least. Once vaccinated, with each vaccin, you get a certificate. This goes through the national health system. Then you apply a QR code on your phone, and you can download it there. It will act as a vaccin passport. I also think there is a huge fine ( 15000€ ?) and prison sentence for people using forgeries. 
As for infection numbers rising , yes. Britain expects 100 000 by next week, but these are being handled out of hospital and very few deaths. Vaccination runs for youths and kids by the thousands every day. And of course, the country is up and running and people back at work.