Thailand reports 14,260 new COVID-19 cases, 119 more deaths

[Macrohistory]

38 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Can we assume this is because the government has had a policy since the start of the pandemic, that almost no other country has adopted, of putting ALL positive cases into some type of medical setting, even though 50% or more of cases are asymptomatic? And they have only recently bowed to the inevitable and allowed asymptomatic and mild cases to self quarantine at home.

 

Hong Kong adopted a sequestration policy and it worked.  Of course you are right that the economic costs of such an approach are high.

 

 

[wensiensheng]

14 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Yes, and generally so for Thailand.... but the rest of the world numbers are usually between 1-2% and Peru a whopping 9%. One has to ponder 'why'? I am rather anti numbers that try to minimize the seriousness of this... it is serious. 

Could it be because of altitude. Less oxygen? I believe the health service was totally over run. That would be a factor I think.

[placeholder]

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are trying to invoke herd immunity as an explanation for the decline in cases in Chile. Do you know what percent of the population is required to achieve herd immunity? Has Chile reached that saturation point?

You don't have to reach herd immunity before the R(0) begins to decrease due to the increasing percentage of those vaccinated.

Edited July 24, 2021 by placeholder

[DrJack54]

36 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

,..... it is the overfull hospitals, field hospitals, and hospitels, as well as the many who have been waiting for many days and isolating at home while waiting for a bed to be treated

Agree. 

How do I deal with the gf who BTW gave me small spray earlier.........When I mentioned the number of cases etc....she responded with 

"Jack why every day you talk about the number. You stupid believe that. All the number is B.S."

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by DrJack54

[gearbox]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

No. According to the notice tomorrow is AZ. 2nd jab I assume will be the same. Next yr maybe mRNA for booster.

 

Are you planning to get a mRNA booster in Thailand or elsewhere?

 

I see this article:

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

 

Don't know if the figures are real or not...

 

I'm off in 4 days to Europe, will get Pfizer shots while I'm there. I'm wondering when I come back whether I could get a booster here if needs to. If the booster is not available, I may need to fly again to get it outside, hopefully Australia would open by then.

[jerrymahoney]

These are the remarks of Dr. Richrd Brown at the JULY 23 WHO Launch of the EU-WHO Southeast Asia Health Pandemic Response and Preparedness Programme in Thailand which maybe differ from what was reported in today's BP and as referenced above. esp. at 00:40

[Walker88]

50 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

If I'm reading it right, about 19,000 infections and 94 deaths...so a .005% (half of one-percent) mortality rate.

Your words are right, but number wrong.

 

A half of one percent is .5%, not .005%

 

Worldwide, the mortality rate is 2.15%, using figures from John Hopkins University, and not counting the unofficial numbers coming out of India.

[wensiensheng]

26 minutes ago, dan42 said:

Same approach here in Spain. We have around 30-40k new cases per day and the healthcare system is managing pretty well. Once you get around 40% of the population fully vaccinated, starting with the elderly and going down age group by age group, severe illness, hospitalizations, ICUs and deaths go down fast. Here we are at around 55% fully vaccinated, it's going fast and considering the low number of anti-vaxxers here I think we will reach 80-90%. I think Italy is starting to ignore new cases as an important metric as well, and that makes sense on countries with advanced vaccination programs IMHO

 

Back to Thailand, I think we need to stop looking at the past and blaming the goverment and start looking at the present and future, focusing on solutions no fingerpointing because that won't help, will only put the goverment more nervous and on a defensive position, and what they need now is focus. There's almost no country in the world that has not made obscene mistakes on this so let's move on.

 

In terms of strategy, I believe it's a mistake to focus so much and almost only on vaccines. No matter what the goverment does, it will take months until Thailand receives a stable and sufficient amount of vaccines and design the logistics to innoculate them fast and efficiently. So a strong focus must be put on what to do in the meantime to reduce deaths as much as possible and limit damage on the economy. They need to increase testing of people and drain waters to anticipate clusters, tracking positives and close contacts, print baths and estimulate the economy, control the borders, invest on equipment (i.e.: ventilators), apply strong measures to reduce movement around the country...Many many things the goverment must do beyond vaccination.

 

 

 

 

Agreed. But they are all things that the government will not do with any consistency or focus. Once the photo op opportunity is completed on day one, all projects seem to wither on the vine.

[James105]

16 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Yes, and generally so for Thailand.... but the rest of the world numbers are usually between 1-2% and Peru a whopping 9%. One has to ponder 'why'? I am rather anti numbers that try to minimize the seriousness of this... it is serious. 

There seems to be 2 possibilities here.   Either Peru had a much deadlier variant or there was a larger number of undiagnosed cases than other countries.   In a country that made such a mess of covid (literally the worst in the world and had some of the harshest lockdowns) then I would suspect the latter.

[DrJack54]

2 minutes ago, gearbox said:

, I may need to fly again to get it outside, hopefully Australia would open by then

Less than Zero chance of that.

[dinsdale]

Just now, gearbox said:

Are you planning to get a mRNA booster in Thailand or elsewhere?

 

I see this article:

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

 

Don't know if the figures are real or not...

 

I'm off in 4 days to Europe, will get Pfizer shots while I'm there. I'm wondering when I come back whether I could get a booster here if needs to. If the booster is not available, I may need to fly again to get it outside, hopefully Australia would open by then.

Here. AZ should offer some protection. When pfizer or moderna comes here in enough numbers it may be an option.

[jacko45k]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Could it be because of altitude. Less oxygen? I believe the health service was totally over run. That would be a factor I think.

The Capital, Lima is not high.... 

[anchadian]

Phuket creeps closer to its target of having 70% of the population fully vaccinated. As of yesterday, 321,726 people on the island have received both jabs which is 69%. So far, 88% have received at least one jab #ThaiNewsReports #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1418760027909746688

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, James105 said:

There seems to be 2 possibilities here.   Either Peru had a much deadlier variant or there was a larger number of undiagnosed cases than other countries.   In a country that made such a mess of covid (literally the worst in the world and had some of the harshest lockdowns) then I would suspect the latter.

Given that covid killed 1/200th of the population the latter seems unlikely. However, there are other possibilties. For one thing, Peru has an obesity rate of 52%. And a not very good public health system.

[wensiensheng]

“The news comes as 8 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine and 5 million doses of Sinovac vaccine are being administered through to the end of August 2021,”

 

to put this a different way: During the rest of July and August we will administer 342,000 doses per day, which is 40% lower than is needed to meet our self declared target.

 

clearly spin doctors have been at work.

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Given that covid killed 1/200th of the population the latter seems unlikely. However, there are other possibilties. For one thing, Peru has an obesity rate of 52%. And a not very good public health system.

Probably all of the above

[anchadian]

Department head predicts Covid-19 could last up to another year

 

Depending on the actions the government and the people of Thailand take, the Director-General of the Department of Medical Services predicts Covid-19 could continue for just a few months or drag on for another year. Director-General Somsak Ankasil asserted that declaration in a recorded video message this week made to thank the medical officials across the nation.

 

In it, he said that many factors will affect our future and the future of the Covid-19 pandemic within the borders of Thailand. If handled well, he believes that Covid-19 could be wrangled under control in about 3 months or possibly as little as 1 month. But, if improperly handled, or if more problems and obstacles surface along the way, the Covid-19 pandemic could stretch on for another year.

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/department-head-predicts-covid-19-could-last-up-to-another-year

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Critics of Sinovac here have pointed at Chile as an example of the deficiencies of the Chinese vaccine, citing increasing cases despite high levels of vaccination.

 

You don’t hear about Chile anymore, because new infections are way down, as vaccination increases.

That was before Delta.

 

"Alarm is growing in Chile over the more contagious Delta variant ..., which was confirmed in the country last week (June 28, 2021) and has caused contagion spikes elsewhere." -- Reuters

 

"Public health chief Paula Daza said it was "very likely" that Chile would issue a third dose ..., potentially of a different vaccine from their previous shots, noting: "it might be a way of bolstering the effectiveness of vaccines.""

 

Chile recently experienced dual Covid surges from Gamma_Brazil and Alpha_UK variants in spite of high levels of vaccination.  BBC: Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success April 16, 2021

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by rabas

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

That was before Delta.

 

"Alarm is growing in Chile over the more contagious Delta variant ..., which was confirmed in the country last week (June 28, 2021) and has caused contagion spikes elsewhere." -- Reuters

 

"Public health chief Paula Daza said it was "very likely" that Chile would issue a third dose ..., potentially of a different vaccine from their previous shots, noting: "it might be a way of bolstering the effectiveness of vaccines.""

 

Chile recently experienced dual Covid surges from Gamma and Alpha variants in spite of high levels of vaccination.  BBC: Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success April 16, 2021

You clearly missed my initial post on Chile, where I noted that new infections are way down from a month ago, so nobody is talking about Chile anymore.

[Danderman123]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You don't have to reach herd immunity before the R(0) begins to decrease due to the increasing percentage of those vaccinated.

Please take a look at new cases in the US, and then at Chile, and tell me how herd immunity is reducing cases in Chile, while, in the more vaccinated US, new cases are rising.

 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, rabas said:

That was before Delta.

 

"Alarm is growing in Chile over the more contagious Delta variant ..., which was confirmed in the country last week (June 28, 2021) and has caused contagion spikes elsewhere." -- Reuters

 

"Public health chief Paula Daza said it was "very likely" that Chile would issue a third dose ..., potentially of a different vaccine from their previous shots, noting: "it might be a way of bolstering the effectiveness of vaccines.""

 

Chile recently experienced dual Covid surges from Gamma_Brazil and Alpha_UK variants in spite of high levels of vaccination.  BBC: Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success April 16, 2021

 

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/chile

 

[Danderman123]

23 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

If they had low testing, surely they would have lower Covid mortality ratios? I thought it was due to the Lambda variant. 

If only 1000 people test positive a day, and 90 people die, that results in 9% mortality.

 

Mexico used to have a CFR of 10% a day.

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Please take a look at new cases in the US, and then at Chile, and tell me how herd immunity is reducing cases in Chile, while, in the more vaccinated US, new cases are rising.

 

 

In fact, Chile has a higher percentage of its people vaccinated than does the USA. (top graph is Chile, bottom graph is USA) But more importantly, in the USA there is a very uneven distribution of those vaccinated. Thanks mostly to Trump supporting regions of the USA being far more reluctant to get vaccinated. Also due to the black population's distrust of the medical establishment.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by placeholder

[anchadian]

AstraZeneca have written an “open letter” to Thailand to say they are producing as many vaccines as they can. They will also scour global supply chains to bring in more doses to the region. According to AZ 1 dose is 87 percent effective at preventing serious Delta infections.

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1418766355449344004

[Artisi]

29 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

94 ÷ 19,000 = 0.0049473684. I round that up to .005 or one-half of one percent. Put another way, 0.9950526316 survival rate.

Maths lesson 101:

94÷19,000x100 = 0.4947%

[Pattaya Spotter]

1 minute ago, Artisi said:

Maths lesson 101:

94÷19,000x100 = 0.4947%

I can count to the left of the decimal point...with 1.00 being 100% (if you have 1 of something you have it all).

[Misty]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

This is what happens when there is low vaccination AND restrictions are lifted:

 

Florida has half the population of Thailand, but almost the same number of infections. Note that the vast majority of cases are unvaccinated.

 

I hope that the Anti-Vaxxers and anti-lockdown types look at these numbers.

 

I get your point, but not an equal comparison.  Florida vaccination rate is much higher than Thailand.  Florda is 48.2% fully vaccinated (Our World Data), Thailand is 5.1% fully vaccinated (FT's vaccine tracker).  And Floridians have received  vaccines such as Pfizer, Moderan or J&J.  Thailand would be Sinovac or AZ.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=USA

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Misty

[ABCbangkok]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thais in need of inoculation before travelling overseas.

These Thais traveling abroad are on an extremely important mission. They are going to keep the Thai genome from perishing.
 

We all owe them a great debt of gratitude for their service to the Thai people. I hope you will join with me in wishing them godspeed in their mission. 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by ABCbangkok

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

The difference in mortality rates between ???????? and the ???????? is notable...as most who have spent time in both places can relate, the healthcare is much better in Thailand than the Philippines. 

 

The official statistics show Thailand in recent weeks passed the Philippines with a higher current per capita COVID death rate.

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

But the Philippines still has a higher cumulative per capita COVID death rate, from earlier in the pandemic when its death rates were very high, before falling during the past two months.

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ftpjtm]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

This is what happens when there is low vaccination AND restrictions are lifted:

 

Florida has half the population of Thailand, but almost the same number of infections. Note that the vast majority of cases are unvaccinated.

 

I hope that the Anti-Vaxxers and anti-lockdown types look at these numbers.

Once the best vaccines are easily available for everyone, lockdowns no longer make any sense. Those who refuse vaccines will suffer the consequences, the rest of us want our lives back.