Thailand reports 15,376 new COVID-19 cases, 87 more deaths

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4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Did you read the first link.

Many people are under the false assumption that once you’ve had covid-19 and recovered that you are immune from getting reinfected.

Did you read the sentence that immediately followed?

"The body does develop an immune response after being infected with covid-19 but how long and how effective that immunity will be in the face of the emerging variants has not been determined yet."

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Quite clever wording on his part. Decline from what number? Today’s case number. Or decline from the as yet unknown high point to be reached.

 

anyway, I can see his point. Either case numbers start falling in Bangkok in 4 weeks time, or the lockdown restrictions either aren’t working, or aren’t being followed, or both. In which case there is a bigger problem.

Unfortunately, I believe clearly that we have a problem that's not even surfaced yet here in BKK. Those are all the work sites and factories working still with hundreds of workers 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Did you read the sentence that immediately followed?

"The body does develop an immune response after being infected with covid-19 but how long and how effective that immunity will be in the face of the emerging variants has not been determined yet."

And therefore it may not assist. Read it how you will, I read it the way I believed it was meant. So let's agree to disagree.  You will never find a study that gives you a percentage at this point in time. Maybe in a few years but not now.

[placeholder]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

And therefore it may not assist. Read it how you will, I read it the way I believed it was meant. So let's agree to disagree.  You will never find a study that gives you a percentage at this point in time. Maybe in a few years but not now.

A few years? Why would that be? There's already plenty of data. A few months more likely. If that.

[DrJack54]

10 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

. Either case numbers start falling in Bangkok in 4 weeks time, or the lockdown restrictions either aren’t working, or aren’t being followed, or both

Just an opinion. When the numbers are as high as they are in Bangkok and few other places the only lockdown that would help is severe.

The current restrictions are soft.

Inter provience travel etc basically A..O.K.

Yes the restrictions are helping but in the main buying time.

Need vaccine ....which is not in adequate supply. The numbers won't fall. 

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by DrJack54

[anchadian]

In Thailand, Covid-19 exposes the vulnerability of informal workers

 

Thailand's vast informal sector accounts for the majority of the kingdom's workforce. Now, amidst the pandemic that has interrupted vital industries, the lack of government support and planning for this large chunk of low-wage workers has been exposed

https://southeastasiaglobe.com/thailand-informal-sector-covid/

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, rabas said:

Did you read the first link fully?

 

"“We are seeing that natural immunity from prior strains of the virus does not provide very strong protection against this Delta variant,” Jason Bowling, an Infectious Disease specialist at the University Texas Health, said ... "

 

Emphasis theirs.

Yes I did and that's what I was referring to with the other poster. Maybe I misinterpreted what he was getting at. My point is that having been infected once is not a guarantee you will not get Covid again and this Delta variant can kill you still, even those vaccinated already have succumbed.

[wensiensheng]

23 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Just an opinion. When the numbers are as high as they are in Bangkok and few other places the only lockdown that would help is severe.

The current restrictions are soft.

Inter provience travel etc basically A..O.K.

Yes the restrictions are helping but in the main buying time.

Need vaccine ....which is not in adequate supply. The numbers won't fall. 

 

I can’t really say. The “expert” didn’t seem to give any reasoning, but presumably they feel the current restrictions are enough. My big worry is that are too many loopholes for things like construction sites. So they may think the restrictions are enough, but in reality they just aren’t being applied. In which case, there may be an issue in a few weeks time.

 

we can only wait and see.

[wensiensheng]

posted in another thread. Phuket seems to be wriggling out of the 90 case condition for its sandbox. At least for another week. Frustratingly, they seem to be willing to play a statistics game rather then addressing a rising case count. A dangerous game I feel, but we can do nothing but wait and see.
 

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-infections-continue-to-climb-another-covid-death-marked-80821.php

[Danderman123]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

Is that a fact? Are hospitalization and mortality rates the same or nearly so if you've been previously infected? I don't think any knows as of yet. 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/can-you-get-delta-variant-if-you-already-had-covid-19

I don't know, I am simply paraphrasing the guy who got re-infected. 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I don't know, I am simply paraphrasing the guy who got re-infected. 

I guess when you want information abiyt a disease ask the patients, not the scientists.

[atpeace]

9 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

The implication is that the true figure for Covid deaths is much higher than officially stated. The reason for that implication is that the only factor differentiating May and June this year and the same months in the previous 5 years, is that this year Covid is present.

 

not saying that it is true or not, but that is the implication.

 

Put another way, If you ignore official death figures and ask yourself, why are deaths in those months so much higher in 2021 than the average for the last 5 years, what reasons do you come up with? That is the conundrum to be considered.

I'm not sure why excess deaths are roughly 15% higher.  Most seem to think it is because Covid deaths are underreported.  I agree they are underreported but by 600%. seems unlikely.   The article infers that the excess deaths are caused by people putting off needed treatments or treatments being difficult to administer during this crisis.   This also seems far fetched.  

 

Lockdowns do cause deaths and misery.  Not saying they aren't appropriate at  times during a pandemic but there is a huge cost.  

 

 

[wensiensheng]

2 hours ago, atpeace said:

I'm not sure why excess deaths are roughly 15% higher.  Most seem to think it is because Covid deaths are underreported.  I agree they are underreported but by 600%. seems unlikely.   The article infers that the excess deaths are caused by people putting off needed treatments or treatments being difficult to administer during this crisis.   This also seems far fetched.  

 

Lockdowns do cause deaths and misery.  Not saying they aren't appropriate at  times during a pandemic but there is a huge cost.  

 

 

Where did you get 600% from?

Edited July 26, 2021 by blackcab
Bold font removed. Please do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes or wording

[ThailandRyan]

45 minutes ago, anchadian said:

In Thailand, Covid-19 exposes the vulnerability of informal workers

 

Thailand's vast informal sector accounts for the majority of the kingdom's workforce. Now, amidst the pandemic that has interrupted vital industries, the lack of government support and planning for this large chunk of low-wage workers has been exposed

https://southeastasiaglobe.com/thailand-informal-sector-covid/

Thank you at @anchadian this is exactly what I was referring to as there are hundred of construction sites around Bangkok, and then down in Bang Na/Samut Prakan many more factories, and even out towards Minburi.  The workers are not all migrants and many of them are also Thai.  The spread of the virus can not be slowed if they do not have restrictions clearly across the board, but then who feeds these workers and keeps them housed if not working.  This government does not look at the big picture, they only look at the Thai nationals, unlike many other countries who ensure there is some type of safety net for the workers regardless if they are illegal. Just like vaccinating all unlike what many are facing here.  Sad reality.

Edited July 26, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[riparian]

17 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

posted in another thread. Phuket seems to be wriggling out of the 90 case condition for its sandbox. At least for another week. Frustratingly, they seem to be willing to play a statistics game rather then addressing a rising case count. A dangerous game I feel, but we can do nothing but wait and see.
 

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/phuket-infections-continue-to-climb-another-covid-death-marked-80821.php

 

Hope their statistics don't involve "medians", "exponentials" or "percentages"!

 

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

that's assuming there is frequency of 1 in each group, in a uniform distribution where the average = the median

 

anyway searching on Google "how to calculate the median", I got this ????

 

 

Is there a formula to calculate the median?

If the total number of observation given is odd, then the formula to calculate the median is: How to Calculate the Median? To find the median, place all the numbers in the ascending order and find the middle. The middle number is 55, so the median is 55. There are fifteen numbers. Our middle is the eighth number:

Median in Statistics (Formula, Calculation & Examples)

byjus.com/maths/median/

All this talk about formulas to get the median, not just you but this is what calculators are for. https://www.calculators.org/math/mean-median-mode.php

Edited July 26, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[atpeace]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Where did you get 600% from?

From the post you responded to on page 2.  Post is below.  I'll post the article , if you need it, but it from an earlier post on this thread (page 1 or 2). Maybe I messed up the math but think it is correct.

 

Page 2 post:

Don't want to get into the weeds but that is some damning evidence that lockdowns are beneficial.  Roughly 45,000 deaths per month in May and June and this represents "roughly" a 15% increase in deaths which equates to 13,500 excess deaths over 2 months.  This is unbelievable?  If true, it sure makes me wonder about the current lockdowns and deaths they are creating.  

 

Am I missing something?  Are the articles numbers correct?  Nice to see more than 2 months data.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Absolutely ridiculous. There is no way they will be anywhere close to completing the vaccination of over 60’s group by next month. Four months maybe, but one month is laughable.

 

That notion doesn't make any sense to me... But over the weekend, the BKK Post had a report that the government was planning to close out the vaccinations for older foreign nationals in order to open and focus registration opportunities for the as yet un-served under 60 group.

 

I have no idea if that's true or not, and I don't believe the government spokesman addressed that approach in his comments today. But AFAIC, it  would make absolutely ZERO sense.  If they want to move on and expand vaccinations to the younger group, of course that's fine. But if they were to halt vaccinations for the older folks in doing so, that would be ABSURD.

 

FWIW, I was really personally offended by the guy's remarks today, in that he continually make it sound like there are all these numerous vaccination opportunities for 60+ foreign nationals wherever they may live in Thailand, and all they have to do is go and ask. Whereas the reality, AFAIK, is still 180 degrees opposite of that. In short, the guy was lying thru his teeth!

 

[Bkk Brian]

Phuket update

 

23 new local cases today and 1 sandbox case, these will go on tomorrows figures

 

July 19 - 3 new

July 20 - 6 new

July 21 - 10 new

July 22 - 18 new

July 23 - 18 new

July 24 – 11 new

July 25 - 28 new

July 26 - 23 new

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2956032707979899

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, atpeace said:

From the post you responded to on page 2.  Post is below.  I'll post the article , if you need it, but it from an earlier post on this thread (page 1 or 2). Maybe I messed up the math but think it is correct.

 

Page 2 post:

Don't want to get into the weeds but that is some damning evidence that lockdowns are beneficial.  Roughly 45,000 deaths per month in May and June and this represents "roughly" a 15% increase in deaths which equates to 13,500 excess deaths over 2 months.  This is unbelievable?  If true, it sure makes me wonder about the current lockdowns and deaths they are creating.  

 

Am I missing something?  Are the articles numbers correct?  Nice to see more than 2 months data.

 

Ok I think I see now. If I understand it correctly, 45k deaths in May and June, represents 115% of the average of the last 5 years. So deaths are normally approx 39k. But this year they were 45k which represents an unexplained increase of 15%. The suggested explanation is Covid.

 

I don’t see where the 13.5k figure came from. Did you calculate that, or was it quoted somewhere?

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

That notion doesn't make any sense to me... But over the weekend, the BKK Post had a report that the government was planning to close out the vaccinations for older foreign nationals in order to open and focus registration opportunities for the as yet un-served under 60 group.

 

I have no idea if that's true or not, and I don't believe the government spokesman addressed that approach in his comments today. But AFAIC, it  would make absolutely ZERO sense.  If they want to move on and expand vaccinations to the younger group, of course that's fine. But if they were to halt vaccinations for the older folks in doing so, that would be ABSURD.

 

Absurdity seems to be this Governments middle name as far as I can see.  They have never completed one thing before moving onto another and of course we can see the results of half arsed moves they have made.  It is Absurd as you say.

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Phuket update

 

23 new local cases today and 1 sandbox case, these will go on tomorrows figures

 

July 19 - 3 new

July 20 - 6 new

July 21 - 10 new

July 22 - 18 new

July 23 - 18 new

July 24 – 11 new

July 25 - 28 new

July 26 - 23 new

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2956032707979899

The numbers game appears to be based upon a weekly total and not a cumulative if they are looking at doing what they indicated they would do once it hit 90, but then maybe it's 90 Sandbox cases in a week.  My concern is for you folks living on Phuket and seeing the numbers slowly creeping up.  The question I asked a friend there was how much testing are they doing. He just immediately started laughing and said "testing are you kidding me", "Unless your feeling ill or was a close contact they are not randomly testing".  His belief is they do not want to find cases, much like Thailand as a whole did one year ago.  Please stay safe you guys, just like us living in the dark red zones need to do.

Edited July 26, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[atpeace]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Ok I think I see now. If I understand it correctly, 45k deaths in May and June, represents 115% of the average of the last 5 years. So deaths are normally approx 39k. But this year they were 45k which represents an unexplained increase of 15%. The suggested explanation is Covid.

 

I don’t see where the 13.5k figure came from. Did you calculate that, or was it quoted somewhere?

I just did a rough estimate.  90k x 15% excess deaths over 2 months equals  13.5k.  Could be wrong but think the number is close.  honestly, the number seems really high in regards to excess deaths.  probably true but hard to wrap your head around.

[wensiensheng]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

That notion doesn't make any sense to me... But over the weekend, the BKK Post had a report that the government was planning to close out the vaccinations for older foreign nationals in order to open and focus registration opportunities for the as yet un-served under 60 group.

 

I have no idea if that's true or not, and I don't believe the government spokesman addressed that approach in his comments today. But AFAIC, it  would make absolutely ZERO sense.  If they want to move on and expand vaccinations to the younger group, of course that's fine. But if they were to halt vaccinations for the older folks in doing so, that would be ABSURD.

 

Agreed.
 

I have a feeling that they are doing the fantasy land planning again. Someone worked out that if this happened, and that happened, all the over 60’s would be done in a month and so they could move on to younger folks. So immediately all focus shifted to that, because it’s more fun planning for success, than for reality. But this and that won’t happen and they will still be ploughing through the older folk in a months time, but politicians will want to show success and they will press on to the younger folk regardless, all the while claiming that the over 60’s are done, despite the fact that they aren’t.

 

depressingly, I can see it all unfolding in front of me now. 
 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

New measures just announced for Phuket, can't see this making much difference, schools are already closed and closing Central for 7 days? Its already in the community:

 

1. Close all Central Phuket department stores for 7 days. From 27 Jul. - 2 Aug. '64
2. School closed Additional until 16 Aug. '64
3. Closing stadiums, football, futsal From 27 Jul. - 2 Aug. '64
4. group activities no more than 100 people
5. flea market, fresh market Limit the number of people to use the service at 4 square meters per person.

 

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2956078854641951

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The numbers game appears to be based upon a weekly total and not a cumulative if they are lloking at doing what they indicated they would once it hit 90, but then maybe it's 90 Sandbox cases in a week.  My concern is for you folks living on Phuket and seeing the numbers slowly creeping up.  The question I asked a friend there was how much testing are they doing. He just immediately started laughing and said "testing are you kidding me", "Unless your feeling ill or was a close contact they are not randomly testing".  His belief is they do not want to find cases, much like Thailand as a whole did one year ago.  Please stay safe you guys, just like us living in the dark red zones need to do.

They’ve had 101 cases in 8 days. That doesn’t seem to be a concern, because they can say that it’s only 84 in 7 days, so that’s ok.

 

its disappointing to see it treated as a sandbox issue, instead of a medical issue. I’d prefer that they come out and say, 70% of the population has been vaccinated, so we aren’t going to monitor cases any more, just hospitalizations. At least that would be a bona fide strategy and be honest. I wouldn’t agree with it given the high numbers of sinovac utilized and presence of delta, but at least I could say they have a medical plan. This atm is just playing with stats. So no plan at all.

[wensiensheng]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

New measures just announced for Phuket, can't see this making much difference, schools are already closed and closing Central for 7 days? Its already in the community:

 

1. Close all Central Phuket department stores for 7 days. From 27 Jul. - 2 Aug. '64
2. School closed Additional until 16 Aug. '64
3. Closing stadiums, football, futsal From 27 Jul. - 2 Aug. '64
4. group activities no more than 100 people
5. flea market, fresh market Limit the number of people to use the service at 4 square meters per person.

 

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2956078854641951

Well, it’s something……but:

 

1. I was at Central today. I took my daughter to the movies. It was so empty that I don’t think that I came within 5 meters of anyone, let alone 1 meter. Including my daughter and I, there were 3 people in the cinema. I didn’t feel any Covid pressure at all. I wonder if Jungceylon, Lotus’s, Big C are also included? There seems little point singling out only Central.

 

2. Let’s see how the market thing is implemented. If it is done at all, I give it a week. Who is going to monitor it? Or do they think people will stay 4 meter apart voluntarily?

 

3. I have no idea how much football and/or futsal is going on. I don’t see much tbh.

 

4. Group activities no more than 100 people. How many of those are there? My daughter went to her Muay Thai lesson tonight and she had a private lesson with one trainer. But there was a group lesson at the same time with 15 people. So well within the 100 limit. Even 50/60 people is quite a big group. if there are any of  100, it is massive. It seems like a limit that has no purpose.

 

I do however read into these restrictions that there IS a problem with cases, despite the lack of information that has been forth coming.

[wensiensheng]

21 minutes ago, atpeace said:

I just did a rough estimate.  90k x 15% excess deaths over 2 months equals  13.5k.  Could be wrong but think the number is close.  honestly, the number seems really high in regards to excess deaths.  probably true but hard to wrap your head around.

I don’t think it is 15% for both months. I don’t have it available to me now, but I seem to recall May was 8%. But in any case, the excess deaths are the percentages quoted for each month, not 600%.

[dan42]

11 hours ago, The Cipher said:

Show math plz. I can't seem to match your numbers.

I was referring to cases (4998) vs deaths (355) today. It's true that looking at the total cases and deaths the percentaje is lower.

[atpeace]

Just now, wensiensheng said:

I don’t think it is 15% for both months. I don’t have it available to me now, but I seem to recall May was 8%. But in any case, the excess deaths are the percentages quoted for each month, not 600%.

Just looked at it. Forget my rough estimate and I'll use what was stated. 45k vs 40k in May and 43k vs 37k in June.  Excess deaths = 11k.