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Who will never vaccinate except if forced to for visa reasons ? and do you think that they will force us ?


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For those considering that the giant spikes shown in the Thailand graph above are due to a new variant.  Remember that Delta is only about twice as infectious as the previous one.  Does that graph look like the work of a virus that is only twice as infectious as the previous one?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2

 

Look in the table where it says +97%.  Then look again at the Thailand graph I posted earlier.  It's not too hard to make a good guess.

 

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For those who are considering the 2^x and 4^x sequences that were posted by robblok as a valid explanation.  Just take any graphing calculator, for example here:

 

https://www.desmos.com/calculator

 

On the top left box, enter y = 2^x and then in the 2nd box below it, enter y = 4^x.  The x will appear in superscript as you type it.  You will see 2 graphs drawn on the right.  At x = 0, you will see y = 1 for both representing 1 you know what.  At x = 1, you will see the graphs go to 2 and 4, and at x = 2, you will see them go to 4 and 16.  These are the 2 sequences that robblok gave as an explanation for the graph that I posted earlier, which has been deleted by a moderator.

 

Now try to match up those 2 graphs with the other graph that he claims these are a valid explanation for.  If he is correct, the 4^x graph should be matched up with that thing seen in 2021, while the 2^x graph should be matched up with things seen earlier.

 

You can even try stretching the graphs horizontally by replacing x with something like x/10.  Zoom in.  Zoom out.  See if you can find anything that matches.

 

If you know what a derivative is, you can also take the derivative of both equations if you think that changes anything.

 

You can also try modifying the equations to make them more realistic to account for real life behaviour.

 

I have my own alternative idea to all this, however, it is believed by others to be a lie.  And lies are not allowed to be mentioned on this forum.  So I will not mention what my alternative idea is.

 

To be clear to the moderators.  I have zero intention of breaking any of the forum rules here.  I hope that what I wrote above, which is mostly about math, does not violate any of the rules here.  I'm being very careful about what I write.

 

Maybe I should stop posting in this thread altogether.  I'm afraid I might get banned from the forum if I accidentally misspeak in some way.  I think a lot of people already hate me for having alternative ideas.

 

Silenced Humanoid

 

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3 hours ago, Humanoid said:

 

For those considering that the giant spikes shown in the Thailand graph above are due to a new variant.  Remember that Delta is only about twice as infectious as the previous one.  Does that graph look like the work of a virus that is only twice as infectious as the previous one?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2

 

Look in the table where it says +97%.  Then look again at the Thailand graph I posted earlier.  It's not too hard to make a good guess.

 

Twice as infectious doesn’t sound like much does it?!

 

So let’s give it a try.

 

For the purpose of illustration let’s assume for COVID#1 R0= 2.

 

Each person infected goes on to infect another 2.

 

1*2=2, then 2*2=4, then 4*4=8, then 8*2=16, then 16*2=32, then 32*2=64, then 64*2=128, then 128*2=256, then 256*2=512 

and by the 10th iteration of transmission COVID#1 has infected 522*2 = 1024 people.

 

Now let’s apply your ‘is only about twice as infectious’ to COVID#2 for ten iterations of transmission.

 

Twice as infections R0 =4.

 

1*4=4, then 4*4=16, then 16*4=256, then 256*4=1024, then 1024*4=4096, then4096*4=16,384, then 16,384*4=65,536, then 65,536*4=262,144 

and by the 20th iteration of transmission COVID#2 has infected 262,144*4=1,048,576 people.

 

The Delta variant has an R0 that may be as high as 8.

 

Do the math.

 

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52 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

For those who are considering the 2^x and 4^x sequences that were posted by robblok as a valid explanation.  Just take any graphing calculator, for example here:

 

https://www.desmos.com/calculator

 

On the top left box, enter y = 2^x and then in the 2nd box below it, enter y = 4^x.  The x will appear in superscript as you type it.  You will see 2 graphs drawn on the right.  At x = 0, you will see y = 1 for both representing 1 you know what.  At x = 1, you will see the graphs go to 2 and 4, and at x = 2, you will see them go to 4 and 16.  These are the 2 sequences that robblok gave as an explanation for the graph that I posted earlier, which has been deleted by a moderator.

 

Now try to match up those 2 graphs with the other graph that he claims these are a valid explanation for.  If he is correct, the 4^x graph should be matched up with that thing seen in 2021, while the 2^x graph should be matched up with things seen earlier.

 

You can even try stretching the graphs horizontally by replacing x with something like x/10.  Zoom in.  Zoom out.  See if you can find anything that matches.

 

If you know what a derivative is, you can also take the derivative of both equations if you think that changes anything.

 

You can also try modifying the equations to make them more realistic to account for real life behaviour.

 

I have my own alternative idea to all this, however, it is believed by others to be a lie.  And lies are not allowed to be mentioned on this forum.  So I will not mention what my alternative idea is.

 

To be clear to the moderators.  I have zero intention of breaking any of the forum rules here.  I hope that what I wrote above, which is mostly about math, does not violate any of the rules here.  I'm being very careful about what I write.

 

Maybe I should stop posting in this thread altogether.  I'm afraid I might get banned from the forum if I accidentally misspeak in some way.  I think a lot of people already hate me for having alternative ideas.

 

Silenced Humanoid

 

You missed something.

 

The examples of the R0 number series explain why a small change in how infectious a virus has a dramatic effect on the number of people potentially infected.

 

Your simplistic ‘match the math to the graph’ ignores all the other influences on transmission of the virus: 

 

Lockdowns, masks, social distancing, isolation of those infected, vaccines and constant public health messaging.

 

 

Edited by Chomper Higgot
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8 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Twice as infectious doesn’t sound like much does it?!

 

So let’s give it a try.

 

For the purpose of illustration let’s assume for COVID#1 R0= 2.

 

Each person infected goes on to infect another 2.

 

1*2=2, then 2*2=4, then 4*4=8, then 8*2=16, then 16*2=32, then 32*2=64, then 64*2=128, then 128*2=256, then 256*2=512 

and by the 10th iteration of transmission COVID#1 has infected 522*2 = 1024 people.

 

Now let’s apply your ‘is only about twice as infectious’ to COVID#2 for ten iterations of transmission.

 

Twice as infections R0 =4.

 

1*4=4, then 4*4=16, then 16*4=256, then 256*4=1024, then 1024*4=4096, then4096*4=16,384, then 16,384*4=65,536, then 65,536*4=262,144 

and by the 20th iteration of transmission COVID#2 has infected 262,144*4=1,048,576 people.

 

The Delta variant has an R0 that may be as high as 8.

 

Do the math.

 

He has the strange idea that the calculation should match the graph of Thailand 100%.

 

Totally crazy of course given that the delta variant did not take the alpha one at once (so that muddies things up)

The fact that we don't really know the real number of infections because of limited testing (so can't compare)

Actions taken by government can also influence the spread.

 

Its impossible to have the graphs match as calculations and real word will always be different I gave a few reasons but there are many more. He just does not seem to get stuff like that.

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1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Your simplistic ‘match the math to the graph’ ignores all the other influences on transmission of the virus: 

I'm not the one who posted the 2^x and 4^x sequences.  I'm not saying that those are the correct equations.  I'm just showing that those equations DON'T match the data.  And are therefore incorrect equations.

 

I'm not the one ignoring the other influences.  It is your equations that are ignoring the other influences.

 

In fact, all the equations posted here to explain the Delta explanation, have a zero match with the data.

 

If your equations don't match the data, then they are not correct explanations.

 

If you have a correct equation, go ahead and post it.  And let's see if it matches the data.

 

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7 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You missed something.

 

The examples of the R0 number series explain why a small change in how infectious a virus has a dramatic effect on the number of people potentially infected.

 

Your simplistic ‘match the math to the graph’ ignores all the other influences on transmission of the virus: 

 

Lockdowns, masks, social distancing, isolation of those infected, vaccines and constant public health messaging.

 

 

Not to mention the fact that he assumes the numbers of infected people are real numbers. That would only be true if they tested everyone. He assumes that the graph is based on real numbers while in reality it is based on the amounts of tests. 

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1 minute ago, Humanoid said:

I'm not the one who posted the 2^x and 4^x sequences.  I'm not saying that those are the correct equations.  I'm just showing that those equations DON'T match the data.  And are therefore incorrect equations.

 

I'm not the one ignoring the other influences.  It is your equations that are ignoring the other influences.

 

In fact, all the equations posted here to explain the Delta explanation, have a zero match with the data.

 

If your equations don't match the data, then they are not correct explanations.

 

If you have a correct equation, go ahead and post it.  And let's see if it matches the data.

 

The equation is correct but to simplistic. You have no clue about what your doing.

 

I used the equasion as a tool to explain the faster spread. Not to match a graph because anyone with half a brain knows this is impossible because of many outside factors.

 

- you assume the graph of Thailand is correct, but it is not not enough tests were done. So the data in the graph will never match based on that alone.

- you assume delta took over in one time while in reality it took time so you had 2 virusses with different spreading speed living in the same population ) also makes things different then the calculation i just made

- you assume that nobody reacted to the virus (lockdowns vaccination ect)

 

all those things make it so that a simple calculation can never match the real world. 

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1 minute ago, robblok said:

I used the equasion as a tool to explain the faster spread. Not to match a graph because anyone with half a brain knows this is impossible because of many outside factors.

If it's "impossible" to match the graph, then how do you know that your "delta" explanation is correct?

 

"well it gives bigger numbers"... yeah it gives bigger numbers, but how much bigger.  And how much bigger is that bulge in the data?  It's just a 2x slope.  You can't say that since this is bigger and that is also bigger, so that's proves it's the correct explanation.  You need something much more quantitative than that.

 

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5 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

If it's "impossible" to match the graph, then how do you know that your "delta" explanation is correct?

 

"well it gives bigger numbers"... yeah it gives bigger numbers, but how much bigger.  And how much bigger is that bulge in the data?  It's just a 2x slope.  You can't say that since this is bigger and that is also bigger, so that's proves it's the correct explanation.  You need something much more quantitative than that.

 

If a virus variant is more infectious than another, it is impossible for the slope of the graph to be anything other than exponential, all other factors being equal. This is basic math.

 

1. We do know that the delta variant is several times more infectious than the alpha. It may be many more times and has a nasal viral load up to 1000 times more than the alpha variant.

 

2. Given an exponential rise in cases, any population is going to react accordingly which mitigates the spread of the virus and pushes the case load down so the graph becomes less steep.

 

3. Every country has a different graph reflecting the percentage of the vaccinations administered, the government response, density of the population, etc.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Humanoid said:

If it's "impossible" to match the graph, then how do you know that your "delta" explanation is correct?

 

"well it gives bigger numbers"... yeah it gives bigger numbers, but how much bigger.  And how much bigger is that bulge in the data?  It's just a 2x slope.  You can't say that since this is bigger and that is also bigger, so that's proves it's the correct explanation.  You need something much more quantitative than that.

 

How about this one Humanoid. The data is incorrect. The graph is incorrect because of the limited amount of tests. You do know that Thailand had a limited amount of tests so the real figures are hidden so even the way the graph is made up is incorrect.

 

Then nr 2 not sure if you followed the news but quite often they did not count cases they found but put them on later. Plus the prison population that was all done in 1 go. All these things make the graph less then reliable for most things. Whatever you read in it i would not be so sure about it. If you want graphs that are better take the UK or the Netherlands or other countries that did high number of tests. Then the graph would be "better"  but still not perfect. 

 

Anyway your assumption that vaccines caused this is crazy. 

 

 

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It's not that I mind if morons die, it's that they may take people who want the vaccine, but can't get it, with them, to an early death.

 

The reason this post was able to be made at all is that the refusenik who posted it, was fully vaccinated as a child, and that is mandatory, and always has been.

 

I hope you all make it, meanwhile have fun on your 100% inevitable Delta Covid ride to hell and back, freedumb lovers!

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Humanoid said:

 

For those considering that the giant spikes shown in the Thailand graph above are due to a new variant.  Remember that Delta is only about twice as infectious as the previous one.  Does that graph look like the work of a virus that is only twice as infectious as the previous one?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2

 

Look in the table where it says +97%.  Then look again at the Thailand graph I posted earlier.  It's not too hard to make a good guess.

 

Where do you want us to send the flowers?

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On 7/27/2021 at 12:37 AM, internationalism said:

you just go to visa agency and they charge an additional 5k for vax document.

 

But there would be shortage of vax, especially for foreigners, for many years. Thanx to dr Anutin.

The only reason the government will try to force vax on foreigners is for their money, not because 

they do care about your health or health in the general population.

 

Still, herd immunity is around 70-80%, you can chose to be in those 20-30%. Especially, if you are not in a risk group.

I've had a shot of AZ and I'm due for a 2nd shot next month and I haven't been charged.

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