Thailand reports daily record of 16,533 new coronavirus cases

[sucit]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Your math is wrong. 

 

More to the point, you are dismissing 500,000 deaths as No Big Deal, when it's pretty much the greatest tragedy in the history of Mexico. 

 

Imagine that your entire family were wiped out, and someone said, "No problem, it's just a small fraction of a percent compared to the entire population ".  Once you get to a mental state where the needs of the economy outweigh deaths of hundreds of thousands, or millions, then you are in a bad place. 

 

So this post doesn't get deleted, I will tie it back to Thailand, since that is what the debate is about:

 

Would you trade a million deaths in exchange for dropping all restrictions? 

Imagine your entire family is wiped out by drug overdoses, which are up 50% post lockdowns in San Francisco. 
 

there are two ways to die in all this mess, covid and from lockdowns. The completely clueless among us only think and worry about one of those two ways. 

[wensiensheng]

52 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

my conclusions after 15 months of observing and studying the corona situation are two:

 

1. lockdowns do not work, because you cannot lock the whole country forever, lockdowns are

only good for helping the system to gain time and to organise.

 

2. vaccines do work, but not in reducing infections. vaccines are good for preventing hard symptoms.

 

3. thailand should look at mexico and do as mexico did. open all country NOW and accept 20-40 thousands covid deaths a year, until full vaccinations.

otherwise, the death toll from broken ecobomy will be much higher.

Your point #1 appears to be contradictory. The purpose of a lockdown is not to eradicate the virus. It is to slow it down in order that Public Health Services do not become over run and so that vaccinations can take place.  Within the same sentence you say that lockdowns are good for helping the system to gain time and to organize. Therefore you both say that lockdowns do not work, and then go on to say that they do work, within the same sentence.

 

your point #2 seems only partially correct to me. All vaccines approved for emergency use by WHO must show an efficacy in excess of 50%. My understanding is that efficacy is the ability of a vaccine to stop virus transmission. Therefore, vaccines do reduce transmission, thereby reducing infections. As you state, they also reduce the potential for severe symptoms.

 

The logic in your point #3 seems to run contrary to the statements that you make in your points #1 and #2, and even more so if one takes into account their corrected version, in so far as there seems no linkage between the points #1 and #2,  that leads to the conclusion that you reached in your point #3.

 

I have no problem considering a solution of just opening everything up, I try to keep an open mind, but there needs to be some logic and compelling argument involved.

 

 

[HaoleBoy]

The Gov made a big deal regarding the new restrictions last week to keep BKK (and 6 other close proximity provinces) in Bangkok so the virus would not spread.  They talked about 88 roadblocks leading out of Bangkok.

I have friends from Bangkok traveling to Pattaya, Jomtien and Hua Hin (for pleasure) saying there are no roadblocks or if there are, then they are not manned. What happened to these restrictions and the thought to contain the virus in 1 large area?

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

52 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There is a flaw in your logic.

 

If hospitals are swamped by infections, then the death toll increases significantly. Lockdowns serve to delay infections, so hospitals are not swamped, present country excepted.

 

Also, Mexico is a catastrophe with excess mortality stats showing the death toll around 500,000 in the last year.

indeed i suggest that thailand will have to accept a high level of death tolls, something

like 100,000 a year (in this level of infection). this is what mexico did.

and by the way, the death toll in mexico is 238,000 officially, and 380,000 less officially.

that is for a country of 160 million people, so it is not much worse than hungary.

on the other hand, mexico was NEVER CLOSED, tourism industry NEVER INTERRUPTED

and you can just fly there and get in with no PCR test and NO QUARANTINE.

one thing it proves is that this corona is not that bad. no need to destroy a whole

country just to look good in the eyes of WHO idiots.

[wensiensheng]

10 minutes ago, sucit said:

Imagine your entire family is wiped out by drug overdoses, which are up 50% post lockdowns in San Francisco. 
 

there are two ways to die in all this mess, covid and from lockdowns. The completely clueless among us only think and worry about one of those two ways. 

Was the entire family next door also wiped out as a result of the family that died by way of overdose?

 

fortunately so far I have survived lockdown. And I’m pretty I can survive longer based on what I know of my situation. Surviving Covid seems to be a <deleted> shoot where the odds are in my favor, but uncontrollable nevertheless. Particularly if I can’t find a hospital to give me medical care, should I need it.

 

to be honest, I don’t think I am completely clueless. So that just seems to be superfluous abuse and probably unnecessary in terms of making your point. Which I understand btw. Lockdowns do cause inconvenience for all, hardship for many and extreme hardship for a minority.

[ThailandRyan]

17 minutes ago, sucit said:

Imagine your entire family is wiped out by drug overdoses, which are up 50% post lockdowns in San Francisco. 
 

there are two ways to die in all this mess, covid and from lockdowns. The completely clueless among us only think and worry about one of those two ways. 

To me what is Sad is that you truly believe those are the only 2 ways to die during this pandemic, and you believe that lockdowns will kill more than Covid if you just opened up the country or for that matter the world.  Please enlighten us with a plan that would solve the crisis and prevent deaths at the same time as ensuring hospitals have the ability to treat patients.

[James105]

37 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Interesting to note the two people who have liked your post so far. 

If the government continues to be incapable (or reluctant) of offering financial support to those who can no longer make any income then I agreed with the poster that lockdowns are not sustainable.   There has to be a tipping point where the deaths due to lockdown are higher than the deaths due to covid.   I suspect this is not too far away.   Unless of course not having any money to either pay your rent or buy food is considered a minor inconvenience in this country and those who have no money to do either of those things just need to "suck it up" as it's only a few weeks/months/years etc.    

 

Genuine questions - if the government here cannot provide financial support to those who have had their businesses closed, how long do you think the current lockdown in this format can be sustained?   How long do you think you could survive for without any savings or any income in this country?   

[tomazbodner]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

The Channel 7 news is discussing the complete and utter chaos in the original Que lines at Bang Sue with so many people crammed in together at the start of the que.  The people interviewed were grateful to being able to get vaccinated.  Additionally they are talking about the App for making appointments for those 18 and above, but the caveat seems that it is geared towards Thais......why can they not roll out an app and registration for all people who live in Thailand regardless of nationality.  This has all the trappings of a Christmas dinner served up to everyone except the help.

 

Probably the quickest and most reliable way to get infected...

[dan42]

3 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

 

Probably the quickest and most reliable way to get infected...

Covid party there

[AndyFoxy]

3 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

 

Probably the quickest and most reliable way to get infected...

Brainless government. It's like they are trying to get more people infected. 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

36 minutes ago, sucit said:

there are two ways to die in all this mess, covid and from lockdowns. The completely clueless among us only think and worry about one of those two ways. 

exactly. lockdowns DO KILL IN COUNTLESS WAYS.

there is even an unspoken spike in domestic violence cases, the natural result of too many

man locked down in their houses with no job and no work.

[Danderman123]

40 minutes ago, sucit said:

Imagine your entire family is wiped out by drug overdoses, which are up 50% post lockdowns in San Francisco. 
 

there are two ways to die in all this mess, covid and from lockdowns. The completely clueless among us only think and worry about one of those two ways. 

I suspect that my family would not choose to overdose on drugs. 

 

But, infection with Covid is not voluntary. 

[MikeyIdea]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Government or private hospital doing that?

 

Both, the same happened to a friend of mine at a government hospital a week ago

[anchadian]

More photos from this morning:

 

https://twitter.com/Thairath_TV/status/1420237338643341415

 

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

exactly. lockdowns DO KILL IN COUNTLESS WAYS.

there is even an unspoken spike in domestic violence cases, the natural result of too many

man locked down in their houses with no job and no work.

If that is true, why does excess mortality tend to drop after lockdowns are imposed? 

[ThailandRyan]

15 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

 

Probably the quickest and most reliable way to get infected...

Well said and a good possibility for even the volunteers assisting the vaccine distribution.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, James105 said:

If the government continues to be incapable (or reluctant) of offering financial support to those who can no longer make any income then I agreed with the poster that lockdowns are not sustainable.   There has to be a tipping point where the deaths due to lockdown are higher than the deaths due to covid.   I suspect this is not too far away.   Unless of course not having any money to either pay your rent or buy food is considered a minor inconvenience in this country and those who have no money to do either of those things just need to "suck it up" as it's only a few weeks/months/years etc.    

 

Genuine questions - if the government here cannot provide financial support to those who have had their businesses closed, how long do you think the current lockdown in this format can be sustained?   How long do you think you could survive for without any savings or any income in this country?   

Here's some genuine questions for you,

How long due you think the covid crisis would last if their were no restrictions? 

How much damage to the economy would there be with no restrictions? 

How many covid deaths would there be with no restrictions?

How many suicides as a result of losing family members to covid would there be?

How many people would starve as a result of no restrictions?

How many hospitals would have to close as a result of no restrictions?

How many people would die as a result of other diseases because the hospitals are closed?

With most people down with covid how many factories do you think would have to close?

 

If you can come up with factual replies and data to that then you can have a debate but without knowing then you risk a far worse fate than anything lockdowns can do.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

More photos from this morning:

 

https://twitter.com/Thairath_TV/status/1420237338643341415

 

The PM will not like seeing this, and the BMA Governor better be taking a stand to ensure this is rectified soon.  They, the Government, created this mess in the first place.  Panic over wanting to be vaccinated and being told this was one of the only venues has led to what we are seeing.

[DrJack54]

24 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

 

Probably the quickest and most reliable way to get infected...

Been holding off replying to these pictures from various posters. 

Indeed that is possibly the situation in the morning.  Not sure how many are walk ins. It seems gov or whoever indicated that walk in would stop at some point and that led to big numbers Tuesday. 

My experience yesterday was nothing like that with time slot 4pm + for 60+ yr old farang.

First pic below is the worst one I had 'stand up queue'. That was about 30-40 mins. Next sit down queue area was paperwork and then jab. Not too bad.

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by DrJack54

[Danderman123]

21 minutes ago, James105 said:

 There has to be a tipping point where the deaths due to lockdown are higher than the deaths due to covid.  

You may not have thought this through. 

 

What you are saying is that a lockdown may be so effective that Covid deaths are lower than deaths from causes other than illness. And you think that is a bad things. 

[bestie]

 

1 hour ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

my conclusions after 15 months of observing and studying the corona situation are two:

 

1. lockdowns do not work, because you cannot lock the whole country forever, lockdowns are

only good for helping the system to gain time and to organise.

 

2. vaccines do work, but not in reducing infections. vaccines are good for preventing hard symptoms.

 

3. thailand should look at mexico and do as mexico did. open all country NOW and accept 20-40 thousands covid deaths a year, until full vaccinations.

otherwise, the death toll from broken ecobomy will be much higher.

Your statement in point 3 isn't discussable from a moral standpoint, but it's also wrong because you think that the "economical effect" in an non-lockdown country,  when we would let people die, wouldn't be the same like in a country with a lockdown. Well, that's people with money and purchasing power who will die. For the economy it would mean the same impact. same same but different you know. 

[wensiensheng]

33 minutes ago, James105 said:

If the government continues to be incapable (or reluctant) of offering financial support to those who can no longer make any income then I agreed with the poster that lockdowns are not sustainable.   There has to be a tipping point where the deaths due to lockdown are higher than the deaths due to covid.   I suspect this is not too far away.   Unless of course not having any money to either pay your rent or buy food is considered a minor inconvenience in this country and those who have no money to do either of those things just need to "suck it up" as it's only a few weeks/months/years etc.    

 

Genuine questions - if the government here cannot provide financial support to those who have had their businesses closed, how long do you think the current lockdown in this format can be sustained?   How long do you think you could survive for without any savings or any income in this country?   

Before I answer your questions, can you give some insight on why you believe the tipping point in terms of deaths due to lockdowns exceeding deaths due to Covid, is not too far away?

 

Official deaths from Covid are quoted each day so to the extent that they may be somewhat accurate, that provides one metric for Covid deaths. There is also the excess deaths statistics, comparing deaths in 2021 to the previous 5 years, but that is not really helpful, because it would include deaths caused by lockdown and deaths by Covid.

 

there is anecdotal evidence of Covid deaths not included within government numbers, and also anecdotal evidence of death caused by lockdown. By which I mean, media reported individual deaths attributed to one or the other. Most of the lockdown related deaths that I have seen relate to suicides.

 

I’m interested to know whether you have been able to do any quantifiable comparisons between death by lockdown and death by Covid, in Thailand.

 

with regard to your own questions, they are of course valid. The answer that I would firstly give is that the government should not be considering whether they can afford to give proper income support to those that need it, but rather can they afford not to give it. Clearly people would still suffer, but less so.

 

however, you ask the question “what if” support is not forthcoming.
 

I personally would not be able to survive without income or savings for more than a week. I have never been poor, I have financial commitments, I can’t live off the land, I have no support network. Some Thai’s may be in a similar position to me, some may not be because they are used to being poor, eating a bowl of rice a day, living off the land. It’s ugly but some can do it. It’s hard to generalize of course.

 

So far as how long can the restrictions be sustained, I think that looks at the challenge in the wrong way. Personally I would suggest that the challenge is how long does the level of restrictions need to be maintained? The answer to that question largely lies in the speed of vaccination. The rate of  vaccination will provide a date by which sufficient vaccinations have been carried out, such that the subsequent number of cases will not yield enough cases with severe symptoms, to over whelm health services.

 

once the date by which projected vaccinations reach the required level is known, it’s then possible to work on the details of what is required to bridge  the time gap. What health service capacity is required, what income support is required, what food supplies need to be given etc etc. in other words, make it possible for people to survive the restrictions for the required amount of time, not just endure what seems unending hardship.

 

there, another long post. But these aren’t simple issues solved with a single sentence.

Edited July 28, 2021 by wensiensheng

[champers]

2 hours ago, dan42 said:

Not surprised seeing images like this yesterday.

 

 

I really want to understand and empathize with Thailand's vaccination program but I really can't. These images are difficult to process. 

If I saw a crowd like that I would turn round and go home. Risk v reward, risk outweighs reward.

[anchadian]

5 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Been holding off replying to these pictures from various posters. 

Indeed that is possibly the situation in the morning.  Not sure how many are walk ins. 

My experience yesterday was nothing like that with time slot 4pm + for 60+ yr old farang.

First pic below is the worst one I had 'stand up queue'. That was about 30-40 mins. Next sit down queue area was paperwork and then jab. Not too bad.

 

Exactly.

 

As stated earlier most will try their luck on the off chance they will be vacinated.  None have registered.

 

 

[Caldera]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

There are official figures, as I posted with weblinks above, including the government's own 2010 Census report and its chart below:

 

 

 

Again, that doesn't tell you how many Thais reside in Bangkok now, after many have left due to losing their jobs in 2020 or 2021.

[DrJack54]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Exactly.

 

As stated earlier most will try their luck on the off chance they will be vacinated.  None have registered.

 

 

Bit of heads up for 60+ farang. 

Don't do what I did which was arrive at 3.30 for 4pm appointment. 

The 4 appointment just means come post 4pm. 

When I was in jab section many waiting chairs were being removed and the place seemed far less crowded. 

Only a guess but perhaps they only allow certain number of walk in Thai and that starts to finish up soon after 4.30

 

[Bkk Brian]

 

House Speaker Chuan Leekpai said he has asked Foreign Minister Don Paramatwinai to flex some friendly muscle and ask for vaccine donation from the US which has 50 million doses left over. Don says MOFA is working on it and nothing has come out of it yet.

 

https://twitter.com/Thai_Talk/status/1420241740036939781

https://www.matichon.co.th/politics/news_2853388

 

[Bkk Brian]

I was always under the impression that as the boss its down to you to take difficult decisions and if that means sacking people then do it, asking them to resign in public shows your weakness.....................aside from your own people telling you to resign yourself.

 

"Prayut: ministers not doing anything or unable 2show results in tackling #COVID19 outbreak should resign. It came after weeks of protesters calling Prayut 2resign over COVID-19 management meltdown."

 

https://twitter.com/PravitR/status/1420233333267582979

 

 

Edited July 28, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[James105]

 

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Before I answer your questions, can you give some insight on why you believe the tipping point in terms of deaths due to lockdowns exceeding deaths due to Covid, is not too far away?

Societal breakdown would be my answer.   Have any other countries tried an extended lockdown without providing any financial support for the people who worked in the businesses they forced to close?  I may be wrong but I think Thailand is the first to try it this way.    Last year they provided a small amount of financial support, the lockdown was shorter and there was a light at the end of the tunnel.   None of that applies this time.   

[pkrv]

41 minutes ago, anchadian said:

More photos from this morning:

 

https://twitter.com/Thairath_TV/status/1420237338643341415

 

Essentially horrific scenes - literal super-spreader events. What's also horrifying is the fear and/or ignorance of the general populace in putting themselves into these situations where infection chances are likely so much higher. To say nothing of the abject failure of a government in managing the whole situation in the first place.

Edited July 28, 2021 by pkrv