Covid cases could have hit more than 40,000 cases per day without lockdown, government says

[webfact]

 

By Erich Parpart

 

The daily number of Covid cases could have surpassed 40,000 per day without the lockdown, the Ministry of Public Health said on Friday, as the government was assessing whether to increase restrictions.

 

“Its peak would have been around September 14,” said Dr Opas Karnkawinpong, director-general of the Department of Disease Control (DDC), presenting a simulation that showed a possible maximum of 45,000 cases per day in the absence of strict measures.

 

The latest outbreak scenarios from the DDC were based on an internal study of a mathematical model. Thailand has been reporting more than 14,000 cases per day over the past week and more than 17,000 cases in each of the past two days.   

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/30643/covid-cases-could-have-hit-more-than-40000-cases-per-day-without-lockdown-government-says/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-07-31

 

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[RichardColeman]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

The daily number of Covid cases could have surpassed 40,000 per day without the lockdown

Or 'The daily numbers could have already surpassed 40,000 a day with adequate and honest testing with lockdown'

[Bohemianfish]

Sounds like America last year. Good luck, god bless.

[Thaiwrath]

 

“Based on the scenarios, if we all effectively work together, the number of infected people will come down rapidly and the number of Covid-related deaths will also reduce at a faster pace.”

 

It is not about "us all working together", it's about YOU getting the populace vaccinated.

Something you are not doing very well at all. 

[ourmanflint]

So the peak of the current wave is predicted to be somewhere between October and November this year!

 

Can people (you know who you are) please please stop mentioning flatlines and drops being the end for at least the next 2-3 months?

 

Merci & Por Favor

Edited July 30, 2021 by ourmanflint

[Rampant Rabbit]

My Hero's thank  Buddha for sucha great govt. Remember you can only praise  in Thailand

[ukrules]

"Could have" ????????

[animalmagic]

The daily number of Covid cases could have been very low had we acquired sufficient stocks of effective vaccines and set up an efficient and fair vaccination programme.

[ThailandRyan]

 

3 hours ago, webfact said:

The daily number of Covid cases could have surpassed 40,000 per day without the lockdown, the Ministry of Public Health said on Friday, as the government was assessing whether to increase restrictions.

Doing the Rapid Antigen Test, finding positive cases, sending them home to isolate and then await a bed when they get sick without doing a PCR test is a sure way to keep the numbers down as it does not seem the Rapid tests are counted in statistics, just allows medicine to be given to them.  Creative statistical accounting is what it looks like to me, and to think these Government officials believe this drivel they spout.

 

If you truly believed what you stated then why look at increasing restrictions.  Makes absolutely no sense.

[Scott]

Off-topic post and reply removed.

 

[mtls2005]

Over 18k (18,912) today, so 40k seems possible without any intervention (full on shelter in place and/or vaccinations of 2 mm people per day).

 

In fact 40 k may be low-balling it?

 

 

 

 

[DrJack54]

Today 18,912

Die 178

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Today 18,912

Die 178

The highest day so far and sure to continue in its trajectory.

[DrJack54]

8 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

The highest day so far and sure to continue in its trajectory.

Might be wrong but think your of the opinion that the 18,912 # for new cases needs to read with caution.

My thinking is that # MUCH higher.

[Scouse123]

it probably is and has passed 40,000 a day! I don't believe a word they say.

 

I noticed with interest that Cambodia, (streets ahead with over 74% of population vaccinated) have sealed borders again with Thailand because so many migrant workers and returnees were infected with Covid coming home through land borders with Thailand.

[ThaiFelix]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

"Could have" ????????

Yeah and could have been zero if they had got their sh#t together earlier!

[Scouse123]

29 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Over 18k (18,912) today, so 40k seems possible without any intervention (full on shelter in place and/or vaccinations of 2 mm people per day).

 

In fact 40 k may be low-balling it?

 

 

 

 

 

The only advantage Thailand has over other countries is the weather and a sparser population considering its size and land mass.

 

I think Isaarn and areas which are farmed with a lot smaller populations, who are static in their villages and less movement of people generally may have been more fortunate.

 

People point out that Brazil and India are warm countries but they have much denser in terms of population and far more ghettos, slums, Favelas, etc

[ThailandRyan]

19 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

Might be wrong but think your of the opinion that the 18,912 # for new cases needs to read with caution.

My thinking is that # MUCH higher.

I believe the number is much higher as well, but using the numbers given and the trajectory it is truly heading upwards and cases are more than likely not getting reported, especially with the use of the Rapid tests.

[Dazz1]

Dont open your mouth too soon!

[Snuller21]

And if Thai Government have followed up on vaccine, they could have been like Cambodia who have more than 70% of their population vaccinated now. Now it is NOT Thailand who shut the borders, now it is Cambodia.

[paulikens]

Without lockdown it would have been a lot higher...........every lockdown junkie's argument.    if my auntie had b***ocks she'd be my uncle.   

[digger70]

Covid cases could have hit more than 40,000 cases per day without lockdown, government says. 

 

Just remember that I said that it could be 50 000 by  Sept /Oct When they said that it could be 10 00 by that time .

[Cunning Stunts]

Nothing like posting a big number then when it fall short.....SUCCESS.

 

Bunter and his clowns did the same a few week ago in the UK.........expect daily infections to be 100,000 per day........oh look only 50,000 per day......SUCCESS.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Cunning Stunts

[Dont confuse me]

What's happening in Thailand is what happened in most of Europe and USA about 12 months ago.

If that is the case then be prepared for another rough year!

I sincerely hope the government will start to look after its people.