Thailand reports record high of coronavirus infections and deaths

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

8 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I don’t think it can be. Vaccinations didn’t really start till 7th June.

 

No, he's correct. The second vaccinations chart I posted above does go back to Feb. 28, when Thailand first began doing vaccines. The June 7 date is the start of the bigger national campaign.

 

But I don't see anything in the first blue colored vaccinations chart (the MoPH Dashboard data) that says whether its numbers are back to Feb. 28 or June 7...  And I don't see any mention of the chart starting in April.

 

 

[metisdead]

Some troll posts have been removed.  

[wensiensheng]

5 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

No, he's correct. The second vaccinations chart I posted above does go back to Feb. 28, when Thailand first began doing vaccines. The June 7 date is the start of the bigger national campaign.

 

But I don't see anything in the first blue colored vaccinations chart (the MoPH Dashboard data) that says whether its numbers are back to Feb. 28 or June 7...  And I don't see any mention of the chart starting in April.

 

 

I’m confused. Isn’t it the daily total for yesterday that differs between the two graphics?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

14 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I’m confused. Isn’t it the daily total for yesterday that differs between the two graphics?

 

Me too:

 

MoPH Dashboard through July 30 (not clear when it dates back to):

 

Total vaccines -- 17,129,460

Yesterday vaccines -- 468,858

 

 

MoPH daily report thru July 30 (clearly dates back to Feb. 28)

 

Total vaccines -- 17,491,632

Yesterday vaccines -- 480,155

 

 

Weblinks for both images previously posted above.

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[GroveHillWanderer]

7 hours ago, sucit said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-study-shows-74percent-of-people-infected-in-massachusetts-covid-outbreak-were-fully-vaccinated.html

 

Vaccinated people are probably transmitting to unvaccinated. I am not sure what that means wrt your theory

Actually, reading more about this, it turns out the headline on this is decidedly misleading. This was not 74% of all cases in Massachusetts, it was 74% of the cases in one small outbreak, in one single town where several, crowded public gatherings had been held.

 

It does not reflect the overall situation in the state, in fact quite the opposite. As the article below points out:

 

Quote

... the total number of cases among vaccinated people in Massachusetts remains extremely low, at 0.1% or 5,166 cases out of over 4.3 million fully vaccinated residents.”

74% infected in Massachusetts COVID-19 outbreak were vaccinated

Edited July 31, 2021 by GroveHillWanderer

[anchadian]

A video clip uploaded to Tiktok allegedly shows patients sleeping in makeshift shelters outside Charoenkrung Pracharak Hospital. The nurse said she wants people to see the real situation #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1421457857107562504

 

Video clip here:

https://www.matichon.co.th/covid19/news_2860190

 

[DonniePeverley]

2 hours ago, sawadee1947 said:

And you are soo right. 

I can't understand too how this virus entered Thailand. 

It was strictly forbidden by the Generals. 

Shame on you, nasty virus! 

????

 My point being they held it off with the original strain. 

 

So either back then it was circulating or held of due to mask protocols etc

 

Or the unstable situation in Maynmar, coupled with the esculation of cases in India - meant the porous border hit Thailand hard. 

[watthong]

44 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

60% after two AZ doses against symptomatic infection from Delta, but only 33% after the first dose alone.  60% overall isn't great, but 33% with a single dose only is even worse!

...BUT still definitely much better than 0% after 0 shot (of whatever vaccine out there.) 

 

20 months into the pandemic and science has given us between 60 - 88% (mrna-2shot) of protection against severe diseases caused by Sars-cov2. So let's be thankful, take whatever we can get to stay alive and out of the ICU. Any sidebar discussions on the topics of variants, boosters, mixing shots, ad nauseam is simply splitting hairs. Better spend your time getting yourself healthy(er) and gearing up for the battle when the time comes that the virus finally gotcha. Your body needs all the help it can get!

[Kadilo]

52 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Perhaps you meant to say that any comparisons need to be framed in the light of some suspicion about the accuracy of the Thai numbers and structural differences such as relative vaccination rates. Bearing that in mind, I don’t regard the comparison as worthless. But maybe you do? That’s ok.

Thanks for the feedback. 
 

It’s ok also for yourself to believe that a comparison between the UK and Thailand arty is time where one is nearing the end of the vaccine program and has in the region of 90% vaccinated with at least one dose vs another which has something like 7%, is worthwhile because they have the same population. 
 

For me it’s worthless, and even more so for the reasons you and many others on here state re accuracy. 
 

It’s not surprising there is a clampdown on some of the reporting on social media. That comparison alone gives a false impression to any Thai reading it and could be interpreted as scare mongering. 
 

If people want to do comparison at least do one with another country who has only vaccinated a similar %. 

Edited July 31, 2021 by Kadilo

[DavisH]

11 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

In my view Thailand will jab itself out of the situation it is in. The issue is WHEN.

 

At the current run rate of daily vaccinations, that point seems approximately 1 year away. Between now and then there will be many cases and the results that those cases bring. I don’t think it’s a strategy, it’s just what will happen. I suggest that it is hard to make comparisons with India. The size of populations, geography, standard of healthcare, are all so different, I don’t see direct comparisons working well.

 

where did you read that 70% of the population now has antibodies? I think you should provide a source if making specific statements like that.

 

edit: I see that you have clarified that the 70% comment was about India. Still a source would be nice.

I've also read an antibody study that indicated that 2/3 of the Indian population had been exposed to the virus. This idicates that testing massively underestimates the actual number of cases in the population. It may be one reason why they peaked at a reported 400K a day and fell rapidly, as most peple have already been exposed to the virus. I foresee the same situation in Thailand, now that the situation has exceeded hospital and testing capacity (many may not even be bothering to go to hospital, as there are no beds). Just heard my wife's niece has covid in Ratchaburi - minor slu-like symptoms. She is allowed to isolate at home. But many may now be undetected in the community. Herd immunity may come faster than we anticipate. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/22/india/india-covid-antibodies-study-intl-hnk/index.html

[wensiensheng]

9 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

Actually, reading more about this, it turns out the headline on this is decidedly misleading. This was not 74% of all cases in Massachusetts, it was 74% of the cases in one small outbreak, in one single town where several, crowded public gatherings had been held.

 

It does not reflect the overall situation in the state, in fact quite the opposite. As the article below points out:

 

74% infected in Massachusetts COVID-19 outbreak were vaccinated

Yes, it’s 900 people at one outbreak and there are all sorts of caveats from the CDC about drawing any conclusions from it. I would have thought it bears further investigation but currently it is at odds with pretty much every other study. And even the CDC highlights that fact in the same leaked presentation.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

8 minutes ago, watthong said:

...BUT still definitely much better than 0% after 0 shot (of whatever vaccine out there.) 

 

20 months into the pandemic and science has given us between 60 - 88% (mrna-2shot) of protection against severe diseases caused by Sars-cov2. So let's be thankful, take whatever we can get to stay alive and out of the ICU. Any sidebar discussions on the topics of variants, boosters, mixing shots, ad nauseam is simply splitting hairs. Better spend your time getting yourself healthy(er) and gearing up for the battle when the time comes that the virus finally gotcha. Your body needs all the help it can get!

 

Needless to say, my post above was not an anti-vax argument.

 

Rather, it  was a data-based argument that continues to lean toward the mRNA based vaccines like Moderna and Pfizer being more effective against the virus, and especially the Delta variant, than the AZ and Chinese vaccines.

 

Thailand has and has access to millions of doses of the Chinese and AZ vaccines. What it doesn't have, for now and the short-term future, is any sizable number of Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, DavisH said:

I've also read an antibody study that indicated that 2/3 of the Indian population had been exposed to the virus. This idicates that testing massively underestimates the actual number of cases in the population. It may be one reason why they peaked at a reported 400K a day and fell rapidly, as most peple have already been exposed to the virus. I foresee the same situation in Thailand, now that the situation has exceeded hospital and testing capacity (many may not even be bothering to go to hospital, as there are no beds). Just heard my wife's niece has covid in Ratchaburi - minor slu-like symptoms. She is allowed to isolate at home. But many may now be undetected in the community. Herd immunity may come faster than we anticipate. 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/22/india/india-covid-antibodies-study-intl-hnk/index.html

Yes, that was the thrust of what the OP was saying. Antibodies from being infected might out run vaccinations. It’s possible, but if it is the case, it’s a pretty damning indictment of the speed of the vaccination program.

[DavisH]

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Yes, that was the thrust of what the OP was saying. Antibodies from being infected might out run vaccinations. It’s possible, but if it is the case, it’s a pretty damning indictment of the speed of the vaccination program.

I think the vaccination program in most countries is/will be outpaced by the virus spread. Even in the UK, despite their high vaccination rates, we can see that the virus is pretty clever in finding unvaccianted hosts. Combined with some spread by those already vaccinated, albeit at a lower level, is still maintaining high infection rates. At least the vaccination program in the UK has kept the death rate relatively low. Thailand still has a long way to go to get out of this. 

[Paradise Pete]

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Yes, that was the thrust of what the OP was saying. Antibodies from being infected might out run vaccinations. It’s possible, but if it is the case, it’s a pretty damning indictment of the speed of the vaccination program.

Antibodies fade over time, but with full vaccination the immune system learns how to make more when the need arises.

[Chill27]

Not good, but still only a daily infection rate of 0.027%, or 2.7 people out of every 10,000 are getting infected each day.

And of those 2.7, only about 2% are likely to die.

So the numbers are still miniscule.

I'd like to see a comparison with the increased suicide rate, to see how they stack up!

Yes, it needs to be brought under control quickly, but the figures need to be seen in perspective.

[anchadian]

Phuket update:

 

39 new cases

0 infected from abroad

2 Sandbox

 

https://www.facebook.com/phuketinfocenter/posts/356589019329614

 

[anchadian]

 

BREAKING: All vaccination appointments booked through Mor Prom from 30-31 July will have to be cancelled due to a “technical error during the system update”. Call 02-792-2333 for more information #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1421465456645341186

 

 

[rabas]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And if you want some further jitters about the Chinese vaccines and even the AZ, see the following:

 

"Not all vaccines, it has become clear, are created equal. In May 2021, a study published in Nature Medicine made this claim based on the aggregated clinical trial results of seven different Covid-19 vaccines.

 

Using predictive modeling techniques to plot the strength and duration of their immune protection over a theoretical timeline of 250 days, the study’s authors showed that some vaccines dropped to 50 percent efficacy much earlier than others. Leading the pack were Pfizer and Moderna’s mRNA vaccines, which performed at 95 percent efficacy initially and took a full 250 days to fall to 50 percent.

 

The AstraZeneca vaccine rounded out the bottom with 62 percent initial efficacy and a half life of 48 days, though the Sinopharm vaccine fared even worse, having just 50 percent efficacy to begin with.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/07/28/a-situation-update-on-covid-19-variants-and-vaccines/

 

This is one of the better comparative studies.  However, a slight correction about AstraZeneca efficacy. The AZ data used in this work came from early trials with only 4 weeks between 1^st and 2^nd shots. It was later discovered that AZ needs a long delay of at least 12 weeks to obtain relatively high efficacy. Meaning, if you get AZ now with a 12 or 14 week delay, your numbers will be significantly better than indicated here,  (... at least I hope mine are)

 

The two AZ studies used in the above comparative study.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445431/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7723445/

 

The original Nature study is here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by rabas

[wensiensheng]

20 minutes ago, Chill27 said:

Not good, but still only a daily infection rate of 0.027%, or 2.7 people out of every 10,000 are getting infected each day.

And of those 2.7, only about 2% are likely to die.

So the numbers are still miniscule.

I'd like to see a comparison with the increased suicide rate, to see how they stack up!

Yes, it needs to be brought under control quickly, but the figures need to be seen in perspective.

Well that is an argument that keeps raising its ugly head. Ugly being the operative word.

[SteveB2]

Hello All... Here is my live report

 

I travelled from Pattaya to Bangkok SVM Airport today 31 July 2021 with a bus full of the Sandbox 'New tourists' - I drived them there myself so as to able to handle any <deleted> the Thai goverment migtht try to throw at our 'happy group'.... well...

 

There was NOT ONE road block/check point - even though we had all registerred on the BS govenernment web site for inter province travellers,

At the BKK SVM airport - not one hand wash dispenser worked - all the medical staff looked bored. Really bored.

 

Bangkok SVM Airport was a complete ghost town. No shops open 'ZERO' were open. ZERO. Its finnished. The Airport and its tourist services are non-existant.

 

///

 

Some one, somehwhere is looking at zero tax revenue, zero rental income. Billions... Maybe trilions of revenue gone missing.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

16 minutes ago, rabas said:

This is one of the better comparative studies.  However, a slight correction about AstraZeneca efficacy. The AZ data used in this work came from early trials with only 4 weeks between 1^st and 2^nd shots. It was later discovered that AZ needs a long delay of at least 12 weeks to obtain relatively high efficacy. Meaning, if you get AZ now with a 12 or 14 week delay, your numbers will be significantly better than indicated here,  (... at least I hope mine are)

 

The two AZ studies used in the above comparative study.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445431/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7723445/

 

 

The two studies you linked to above are separate from and older than the UK Public Health data from this spring that was the basis for the results I posted above.

 

[anchadian]

The company which owns the pub, Maya Music Entertainment Company, was also fined 40,000 baht by for breaches of the Communicable Disease Act, while the two executives, Chalee Srithongkul and Komkrit Pilakong, were personally fined 20,000 baht each. https://thaip.bs/kVrun3I

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

The two studies you linked to above are separate from and older than the UK Public Health data from this spring that was the basis for the results I posted above.

Those two studies are referenced (as the data sources) in the Nature study you referenced in your first paragraph. I have added that to my post. (I bypassed your later Forbes reference)

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by rabas

[riclag]

4 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

One of Mrs Dog's friends reported that her brother-in-law got mild symptoms and tested positive in Bkk.  After a couple of days he got worse and tried to get a hospital bed but no hope of that. So he got himself to Ubon.  There he went for a test and had an apparently false negative result and was of course denied a hospital bed.  He had to go home to his family home where they are treating him with herbal remedies and presumably getting infected with COVID of whatever disease he is suffering from. Can't really blame anyone for this but it does seem very unfortunate, if it really is COVID. 

My wife's cousin is a nurse up in Nakhon Phanom ,she said a 75 year old falang came in complaining of shortness of breath ! He told them he already had 2 shots of Pfizer!

They admitted him in the facility gave him a covid test(positive) then antibiotics and steroids' inhalers and in  two days his symptoms subsided. He left the hospital after 14 days .

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

10 minutes ago, rabas said:

Those two studies are referenced (as the data sources) in the Nature study you referenced in your first paragraph. I have added that to my post. Your referenced study.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

 

OK, so your response above was in regard to the Nature findings, not the Public Health England vaccine efficacy info I posted above...

 

I think this below is the longer duration dosing issue with AZ you were alluding to:

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326

 

1. I can't tell which variant of the virus they're basing those findings on... whereas my AZ efficacy info above was specifically relating to the Delta variant.

 

and 2... in reading the BMJ article info, I see the following caveats:

 

"Azra Ghani, chair in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, urged caution over the results, however, pointing out that the study was not designed to look at different dosing gaps or at one versus two doses. “Participants who received a single dose were younger, more likely to be female, more likely to be a healthcare worker, more likely to be resident in Brazil, and more likely to be white than those who received two doses. In addition, those who received a single dose were followed for a significantly longer period of time,” she said. “This means that it is not sensible to compare the efficacy estimates from a single dose with those from two doses.”

 

 

PS -  But to cut thru the weeds here somewhat, if you know of something that looks at the AZ vaccine efficacy against the Delta variant based on a 12 week dosing interval, first and second shots, please do post it here... I'm not sure I've seen anything like that thus far....

 

Edited July 31, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[riparian]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

I don’t think it can be. Vaccinations didn’t really start till 7th June.

According to BP Anutin got his first on 28th Feb

 

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, SteveB2 said:

Hello All... Here is my live report

 

I travelled from Pattaya to Bangkok SVM Airport today 31 July 2021 with a bus full of the Sandbox 'New tourists' - I drived them there myself so as to able to handle any <deleted> the Thai goverment migtht try to throw at our 'happy group'.... well...

 

There was NOT ONE road block/check point - even though we had all registerred on the BS govenernment web site for inter province travellers,

At the BKK SVM airport - not one hand wash dispenser worked - all the medical staff looked bored. Really bored.

 

Bangkok SVM Airport was a complete ghost town. No shops open 'ZERO' were open. ZERO. Its finnished. The Airport and its tourist services are non-existant.

 

///

 

Some one, somehwhere is looking at zero tax revenue, zero rental income. Billions... Maybe trilions of revenue gone missing.

 

Your point being what?

[rabas]

1 minute ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I think this below is the longer duration dosing issue with AZ you were alluding to:

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n326

 

1. I can't tell which variant of the virus they're basing those findings on... whereas my info above was specifically relating to the Delta variant

 

and 2... in reading the BMJ article info, I see the following caveats:

 

"Azra Ghani, chair in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, urged caution over the results, however, pointing out that the study was not designed to look at different dosing gaps or at one versus two doses. “Participants who received a single dose were younger, more likely to be female, more likely to be a healthcare worker, more likely to be resident in Brazil, and more likely to be white than those who received two doses. In addition, those who received a single dose were followed for a significantly longer period of time,” she said. “This means that it is not sensible to compare the efficacy estimates from a single dose with those from two doses.”

Yes, that's one of a few. Oxford has a new paper saying 'best' efficacy is after a 45 week delay! The good news is that after a long delay, AZ's efficacy is pretty good, but short of the mRNA vaccines. 

 

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, DonniePeverley said:

 My point being they held it off with the original strain. 

 

So either back then it was circulating or held of due to mask protocols etc

 

Or the unstable situation in Maynmar, coupled with the esculation of cases in India - meant the porous border hit Thailand hard. 

The original strain was far less transmissible than either alpha or delta. Whether the original strain was circulating in Thailand or not is a point of debate.