Leading doctor cites Phuket Sandbox as example of what will happen when Bangkok reopens

[Tonypandy]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Agreed, I excited the Sandbox last week. 

 

I was aware of the fact that even while ‘triple vaccinated’ (1x AZ / 2x Pfizer) there was no guarantee that I will not be exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, there was a greater probability that I would not contract Covid-19, but again, no guarantees and the downside of contracting Covid-19 is hospital isolation (even without symptoms) - so caution was the name of the game, but that didn’t stop me going to the beach and restaurants etc. 

 

 

The common sense approach (when vaccinated) is of course to continue with life, but maintain intelligent caution. Its clear a greater proportion of the population needs ‘quality’ vaccination. 

 

 

Once the population has been vaccinated, covid-19 numbers become less relevant and hospitalisations with serious symptoms become the true metric.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And what is a quality vaccination and why? 

[kiwikeith]

6 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well someone has spoken up and exposed the true nature of how the Sandbox has actually failed and created more issues then it solved, but hey many think that the Sandbox has been a true success.  A success for only those with Skin in the game, but not he regular old little folks who rely on tourism. If as he says this could follow on to the other openings here in Thailand then it is not a guess as to why they have pushed the opening dates back.

My guess would be , Hospitals will not cope.

Having said that, the countries hospitals/ government, will not cope with the elderly and compromised persons,   (Denmark has reopened and says it will cope) who are the most at risk of infection/serious illness requiring Intensive Care.

Those that are young and fit or even old and fit usually require only home isolation and no treatment.

The majority of Delta infected persons in NZs latest outbreak are told to isolate at home under the care of Health authorities. Anyone considered a greater risk, eg a runner who will ignore the rules is sent to MIQ facility. Hardly anyone in Hospital ,out of over 1000 cases about 14 in hospital.
1 death , sadly a lady in her late 90's.

Does this look like Armageddon, I think not. 

Are people recovering without treatment in self isolation ?--Yesssssssssssss. figure that one out, Mr.  Jabba.

Israel has found that Pfizer efficacy dropped to 39% against Delta after 81% of the population were injected, and is now going through a major reinfection crisis-- re-infection of those vaccinated, so why sling off at Sinovac???

[Polaky]

Sandbox is a great idea if your a teetotaller, enjoy deserted beaches, go to bed at 6.00pm, avoid all excursions and taxi's, your holiday will be filled with fun queing up at testing stations,  enjoy a holiday where you can meditate to your hearts content, and as a bonus get a suntan on your dial depicting batman, however if your a party animal then pick another country.

[richard_smith237]

16 minutes ago, Tonypandy said:

And what is a quality vaccination and why? 

Do you need efficacy and real world effectiveness explained ?? 
 

(google is your friend - I’m too lazy to respond to ill thought out posturing questions). 

[richard_smith237]

16 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Israel has found that Pfizer efficacy dropped to 39% against Delta after 81% of the population were injected, and is now going through a major reinfection crisis-- re-infection of those vaccinated, so why sling off at Sinovac???

Dealing with this point only:

 

(according to your stats) 39% efficacy against contracting Covid-19.

 

What of its [Pfizers] effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations of those with severe symptoms & deaths from Covid-19 after contracting the Delta Variant (B 1.617.2).

 

Any vaccine which prevents symptoms is and effective tool. 

A vaccine which also has better efficacy at preventing infect of any Kind (asymptomatic) is even better. 
 

Question: how effective is Sinovac vs AZ, Pfizer, Moderna against both Covid Infection & against infection with serious symptoms? 

 

 

[zaZa9]

Cannot !  Phuket is an island and the authorities here can control inflows. Impossible in Bangkok.  Reducing susceptibility with vax seems the only way.  The leaders of both here and my own country severely let their people down by thinking their nations were winning and then underordered vax. But at least Thais are grateful and will embrace the idea vax. In Australia, where the PM also thinks he can part the waters and insert submarines,  the builders labourers , not the skillset normally  considered highly ranked in Scientific endeavour , have decided vaxes are , well , take your pic... poisons,  chipped control mechanisms , something ' made up 'to deprive them of their jobs , and probably designed by Bill Gates ...who  must have suddenly decided  that his true calling is mixing cement so as  to build his Towers solo after they are all dead! The biggest antivax noise and fluff I see here in LOS is farabg and sometimes  I just despair...

[kiwikeith]

1 minute ago, richard_smith237 said:

Dealing with this point only:

 

(according to your stats) 39% efficacy against contracting Covid-19.

 

What of its [Pfizers] effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations of those with severe symptoms & deaths from Covid-19 after contracting the Delta Variant (B 1.617.2).

 

Any vaccine which prevents symptoms is and effective tool. 

A vaccine which also has better efficacy at preventing infect of any Kind (asymptomatic) is even better. 
 

Question: how effective is Sinovac vs AZ, Pfizer, Moderna against both Covid Infection & against infection with serious symptoms? 

 

 

How effective is Sino/ Pfizer, you will have to do the research yourself, Pfizer dropped to 39% in Israel , reported in reliable news across the WWW.  about the latest Israel infection /outbreak.

The hospitals are under strain treating people for Delta, that have been fully vaccinated in Israel, read it yourself.

[NeoDinosaw]

6 hours ago, lujanit said:

But but the covid czar says it is all under control for the country to open in August.  The doctor will be sent to an attitude adjustment camp.  Telling the truth is a crime here.

same same UK-  even Members of Parliament are not allowed to call Bonkin' Boris a liar  !

[EricTh]

Phuket is just a small island with sparse population compared with Bangkok. The situation in Bangkok will be much worse due to its dense population.

[cape]

7 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted

 

 

 

Even before, a Sandbox is is an environment where children play, also where cats do their .. !

But it is exactly and precisely as described in your well-written comment.

Exactly.

There is no need to quarantine visitors as fully vaccinated. An antigen pré flight test, maybe. Insurance for covid? A total scam and responsible for seriously damaging the Thai economy.

I would guess the tourist industry will be permanently damaged and we should get used to the idea that a full recovery will mean a 10% contribution to GDP and not the pre pandemic 25%.

What next for the millions of low-skilled jobs lost?

[thailand49]

It is tough job to figure out how and when to open for any country? As for Thailand it might just be impossible due to the leaders and the people in their government.  Leaders are to lead yet here it is is more follow what others are doing even if there are people who have ideas they are too scared or don't have the power to speak out and make the suggestion.

 

You see it daily even prior to the pandemic and during what we get each morning while we start our day with a good cup of Java is nothing but fancy names and slogans as if they have put a lot of thought into it?  What credit I give is how they come up with all these catchy names that all go no where and fizzy.

 

Thai leaders like to place blame but all the blame goes to leaders who collect a sizable paycheck haven't suffer for a second and continue to blow smoke up everyone behind. 

 

The good Doctor is right you need to be careful but hasn't it been long enough when will it be for these leaders based on their past history they have never lead only react when it happens or too late. If he missed the memo just the other day a official said in Phuket the Sandbox is sinking and it isn't due to foreigners it is due to Migrant workers!  The one thing they miss and there will always be something for Phuket it was to vaccinate all their resident but they forgot to tell their own people before you rush into Phuket for jobs make sure you are vaccinated thus the only reason for the infection rate.

 

If they failed in Phuket the size of Bangkok it isn't rocket science to draw a negative conclusion but should that deter it from opening if it does then I suggest set the city on fire put a sign up close for good!????

 

 

[pattayaorganic]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

you missed the important bit

 

Foreign tourists run the risk of getting infected through local transmission and as they are the only people actually being targeted with multiple tests and run the risk of finding themselves locked up through no fault of their own.

 

It is pretty obvious as I have said many times over weeks that CV19 is rampant in Phuket (and lets face it all of Thailand) and their vaccine program has failed to surpress it, tourists need to be aware that only they are targets of mass testing and the chance of a few of them failing a test is high if they mix with untested infected locals. Until Thailand gets this virus under control in Thailand I see no good reason why anyone would want to come here for a holiday, how does Thailand get this virus under control - mass vaccination with effective vaccines and mass testing to show how it is working - unfortunately Thailand is seriously lacking in both - in fact they have reduced PCR testing by some 50% in the last 3 weeks and do not do mass random testing 

I’m just stating scientific facts but if vaccination is the ultimate goal of all of this let’s look at Israel, Gibraltar and Singapore which have 80-100% vaccination rates yet delta is running rampant. Delta is a game changer. Vaccination doesn’t prevent or even reduce viral shedding. Clearly alternate policy goals need to be considered. 

[richard_smith237]

9 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

36 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Dealing with this point only:

 

(according to your stats) 39% efficacy against contracting Covid-19.

 

What of its [Pfizers] effectiveness in preventing hospitalizations of those with severe symptoms & deaths from Covid-19 after contracting the Delta Variant (B 1.617.2).

 

Any vaccine which prevents symptoms is and effective tool. 

A vaccine which also has better efficacy at preventing infect of any Kind (asymptomatic) is even better. 
 

Question: how effective is Sinovac vs AZ, Pfizer, Moderna against both Covid Infection & against infection with serious symptoms? 

 

 

Expand  

How effective is Sino/ Pfizer, you will have to do the research yourself, Pfizer dropped to 39% in Israel , reported in reliable news across the WWW.  about the latest Israel infection /outbreak.

The hospitals are under strain treating people for Delta, that have been fully vaccinated in Israel, read it yourself.

Ok.. so I have to clarify your misinformation now....

 

The main quote from the report in Science.org

 

As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19.

Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. 

 

48 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Israel has found that Pfizer efficacy dropped to 39% against Delta after 81% of the population were injected, and is now going through a major reinfection crisis-- re-infection of those vaccinated, so why sling off at Sinovac???

 

Because while Pfizer and Moderna had (a pre Delta Variant) efficacy against Covid-19 of 95%, AstraZeneca of 75%, Sinovac is 50%. 

 

You since only quoted Pfizers efficacy to the Delta variant had dropped to 39% without provision of a credible source (other than readable news across the WWW - ok fair enough), and you have omitted any information of the efficacy of Sinovac against Delta. 

 

Then you ask, so why sling off at Sinovac ?....  well, while better than nothing, Sinovac has not performed as well as AZ, Pfizer, Moderna - thats not ’slinging off at’ - thats just quoting facts as they were pre-Delta variant. 

 

I ask,  if the efficacy of Pfizer against the Delta variant has dropped from 95% to 39% then what of the efficacy of Sinovac ?? - this isn’t ’Sinovac bashing’ its questioning the incomplete information you presented while apparently defending Sinovac. 

 

 

 

 

 

[drenddy]

Just now, pattayaorganic said:

I’m just stating scientific facts but if vaccination is the ultimate goal of all of this let’s look at Israel, Gibraltar and Singapore which have 80-100% vaccination rates yet delta is running rampant. Delta is a game changer. Vaccination doesn’t prevent or even reduce viral shedding. Clearly alternate policy goals need to be considered. 

BS...Vaccine does have an effect on Delta, such as lower infectious period

[KhaoYai]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

In terms of new infections Thailand was ranking 10th worst in the world at the moment, 7th if ATK data was considered. 

What rot! Figures based on testing rely totaly on the amount of people being tested - for example, in some countries certain sectors of the work-force are regularly tested and a significant amount of those result in positive cases even though the subject is not ill.  I don't know how testing is going at the moment but last year I suspect the figures were far wide of the mark - given that the PM himself was stating that he was restricting testing because 'more tests produces more cases'.  Worldometers has Thailand down at No.29 at the moment.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Hospitalisations and deaths would be a more reliable indictator but if my understanding is correct, just about every positive person is put in hospital or isolated and counted as hospitalised so those figures are not reliable either.  Deaths as a pecentage of the population could possibly give a more accurate figure but even then, that will clearly be affected by the type and availability of timely treatment - a very good reason not to clog up your hospital beds with everyone who sneezes.

 

Further, as others have said, my understanding of the cases in Phuket is that they are the result of domestic transmission

[MrJ2U]

Nice and to the point.

 

 

[MrJ2U]

13 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Ok.. so I have to clarify your misinformation now....

 

The main quote from the report in Science.org

 

As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19.

Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. 

 

 

Because while Pfizer and Moderna had (a pre Delta Variant) efficacy against Covid-19 of 95%, AstraZeneca of 75%, Sinovac is 50%. 

 

You since only quoted Pfizers efficacy to the Delta variant had dropped to 39% without provision of a credible source (other than readable news across the WWW - ok fair enough), and you have omitted any information of the efficacy of Sinovac against Delta. 

 

Then you ask, so why sling off at Sinovac ?....  well, while better than nothing, Sinovac has not performed as well as AZ, Pfizer, Moderna - thats not ’slinging off at’ - thats just quoting facts as they were pre-Delta variant. 

 

I ask,  if the efficacy of Pfizer against the Delta variant has dropped from 95% to 39% then what of the efficacy of Sinovac ?? - this isn’t ’Sinovac bashing’ its questioning the incomplete information you presented while apparently defending Sinovac. 

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't put it better!

 

 

[Rocking Robert]

Only 56% of all Americans USA vaccinated fully yet each weekend millions go to football stadiums shoulder to shoulder without mask do they know something we don’t know ,or are they just stupid

[wensiensheng]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

And perhaps your intellect if by now you are unaware what the Sandbox means in terms of a testing environment. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandbox_(software_development)

 

You make all good points about Phuket as a, in effect, pilot project.

 

but that isn’t what it was sold as by various tourist related associations and TAT itself. The focus was on numbers of tourists that would come and how much money they would spend. The other valuable lessons that could be learned were ignored, and continue to be ignored to this day. Otherwise why would arrivals be subjected to such stringent conditions when they account for so few cases?

[pattayamick]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

A success for only those with Skin in the game, but not he regular old little folks who rely on tourism.

Well. My wife and I had 14 great days in the SANDBOX. We rented a car for the full period, played 9 rounds of golf at various courses, had dinner in numerous restaurants, paid handsome tips to maids, bell boys, waitresses and caddies. So I would say we contributed quite a lot to the “little old folks”

[LivinLOS]

8 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted from computing and means 'a testing environment in a computer system in which new or untested software can be run securely’ - The adoption of the term ’Sandbox' for the Phuket Sandbox simply means that Phuket has been used as a testing environment to see if the incoming international visitors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. 

 

As far as the Sandbox model itself - it has been proven that incoming international arrivals do not contribute to the increase of Covid-19 on the Island of Phuket - The ’test’ itself has established what it needed to.

 

Phuket and other area’s of Thailand have encountered an increase in domestic transmission.

The Sandbox ’test’ has shown that Vaccinated arrivals who have also had a negative Pre-Flight and Arrival Covid-19 RT PCR test do not present an elevated threat to the spread of Covid-19 within Thailand. 

 

From that ’test' perspective the information established from the Phuket Sandbox has been a success. 

 

IF someone was of the opinion that the Phuket Sandbox model was to increase tourism and provide economic stimulus to the Tourism Industry within Phuket, then they have fallen foul to believing the ’theatre’ and misinformation. 

 

 

The increase in case load in Phuket is not related to the increase in vaccinated individuals from overseas. 

The increase in case load in Phuket is related to domestic transmission in areas of high-population density such as slum accommodation and markets. 

Covid-19 is not being spread on the beaches and in restaurants, most of which are virtually empty (in Phuket).

 

 

 

Phuket was allowed to run a little fast and loose with the rules, because they desperately wanted the process to work.. So while cases were higher than Chiang Mai per population, CM was declared a red zone with no dine in allowed, closure of business and work from home orders and yet Phuket was a mystery green zone.. Where bars can call themselves restaurants and operate and no one knows what's in everyones foamy coffee cups.  

The refusal to apply the rules on Phuket, the refusal to impose curfews and travel restrictions that the rest of the country has to bear has to have had at least some impact on the rates of transmission. 

So trying to say that no, Phuket being a sandbox is irrelevant to normal domestic transmission is false.. Its the lack of imposition of rules on 'special Phuket' which has had the effect. Rules that the rest of the country has to put up with. 

[LivinLOS]

17 minutes ago, pattayamick said:

Well. My wife and I had 14 great days in the SANDBOX. We rented a car for the full period, played 9 rounds of golf at various courses, had dinner in numerous restaurants, paid handsome tips to maids, bell boys, waitresses and caddies. So I would say we contributed quite a lot to the “little old folks”

and how many domestic tourists could not or would not come to Phuket to gain that business ?? Its not so simple. 

Most Phuket businesses I hear from would rather have had no sandbox but the usual domestic tourism.. I am sure theres a few businesses and resorts who feel the balance differently but its not clear cut. 

[kiwikeith]

1 hour ago, Tonypandy said:

And what is a quality vaccination and why? 

Well you  said it! took the words out of my mouth, today in NZ, Vodaphone is offering $200 credit to staff and a half day off with full pay to go see Dr, Jabba Warra, and the government says- the faster you get Jabbed the quicker you can be released from LOCKDOWN, if that is not Blackmail, and bribery, and also against whatever human rights act it violates in this world ,then what is the legal definition of prohibited entry ??,--  unless you take an experimental vaccine, then you can enter, or by accepting a bribe or financial enticement  to accept something that you might not take otherwise, unless being financially strapped, or forced to take,  you will lose your job.

[kiwikeith]

1 hour ago, cape said:

Even before, a Sandbox is is an environment where children play, also where cats do their .. !

But it is exactly and precisely as described in your well-written comment.

Exactly.

There is no need to quarantine visitors as fully vaccinated. An antigen pré flight test, maybe. Insurance for covid? A total scam and responsible for seriously damaging the Thai economy.

I would guess the tourist industry will be permanently damaged and we should get used to the idea that a full recovery will mean a 10% contribution to GDP and not the pre pandemic 25%.

What next for the millions of low-skilled jobs lost?

When I visited Koh Samui a few years back , after being in LOS for ten yrs or more, I discovered that these natives, drove cabs with Taxi meter signs, only to find that once getting in and asking them to turn on the meter that there was none.

Now the Thailand tourism industry has taken a page out of the KOH book, they were very good at charging 2x3 times for a falung at tourist venues now , when LOS reopens, you will have something to complain about.

The way is being led by hotels, owned by the rich and vaccine peddlers, vaccine testers , vaccine cabs, MIQ, village headmen, and their mates and sniffer BM's previously owned by FJ. 

[Call]

Phuket Sandbox is an success. End of discussion ????

[VBF]

53 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

Well you  said it! took the words out of my mouth, today in NZ, Vodaphone is offering $200 credit to staff and a half day off with full pay to go see Dr, Jabba Warra, and the government says- the faster you get Jabbed the quicker you can be released from LOCKDOWN, if that is not Blackmail, and bribery, and also against whatever human rights act it violates in this world ,then what is the legal definition of prohibited entry ??,--  unless you take an experimental vaccine, then you can enter, or by accepting a bribe or financial enticement  to accept something that you might not take otherwise, unless being financially strapped, or forced to take,  you will lose your job.

Fair enough - don't take it, stay locked down - your choice.

You anti-vaxxers really need a new drum to bang.

[suzannegoh]

8 hours ago, smedly said:

exactly but it fits the agenda

 

I would rather know the full extent of virus spread in my locality but that is impossible to know because of very limited targeted testing, if Thailand had a testing program like the UK (1 Million per day) I wonder how that would look - they have no interest in knowing

Exactly, what they should be doing is testing people who don't know that they are sick and filling hospital beds with asymptomatic people who test positive. 

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, Spock said:

Thailand's inability to get on the vaccine bandwagon is a disgrace. These ridiculous tourists schemes have simply been a sideshow to detract from the bleeding obvious, that the government has been totally inept at securing vaccines for its own people, while its neighbour, Cambodia, has immunized 99% of the population of Phnom Penh and a large proportion of its population. I am hoping now to go to Cambodia instead of Thailand in December for an extended stay.

I agree entirely.

[smedly]

42 minutes ago, suzannegoh said:

Exactly, what they should be doing is testing people who don't know that they are sick and filling hospital beds with asymptomatic people who test positive. 

don't agree with that either - testing tells if measures are working that is all otherwise they are flying blind

 

asymptomatic people should not be in hospital

 

[joecoolfrog]

6 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Many think it's 90% plus or quite simply herd immunity isn't possible.

Singapore reintroduced restrictions after a week of opening up.

Johnson hasn't ruled out similar restrictions to last year in the UK during the winter.

I will repeat again.

If enough pressure is put on a countries healthcare system, restrictions will be reintroduced.

 

 

I dont disagree with you , my 70% figure was conservative