Leading doctor cites Phuket Sandbox as example of what will happen when Bangkok reopens

[inThailand]

With it being named the Sandbox, the writing was in the sand on day one. 

[georgey]

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

There is also another facet to consider with mass testing - that is false positives. 

 

The UK office of national statistics quotes an RT PCR test false positive rate of 0.8 to 4.3% 

 

The Lancet (in an Article published in Sept 2020) quotes  0.8 to 4.0% false positive rate for an RT PCR test. 

 

Thus, out of 1,000,000 Covid-19 RT PCR tests per day - anywhere between 8,000 and 40,000 tests could be a false positive result. 

 

When ‘Mass testing’ the issue is that we (Thailand or any country) could be testing itself into a Panic. 

 

Any positive tests really should be tested again to ensure the accuracy of the false positive result. 

 

 

Additionally: Once we are all vaccinated a positive test result means little in the same manner that testing positive for influenza means little, particularly for those without symptoms - the key metric remains to be ‘how many people are becoming unwell’.... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have to say that I think you're wrong here. Taking your example of 1m tests over a given period, assume (for the sake of a round number) that 10% come up as positive. I think what is being said by the UK office of NS & the Lancet is that 0.8 to 4% of the (in my example) 10% positives are false - i.e. 0.08 to 0.4% of the total tested.  

[wensiensheng]

2 hours ago, robblok said:

But Richard, it still means that the sandbox is a huge risk. Not as much from the tourists but from the Thais themselves. It just shows the risks of opening up too many venues.

 

I fully accept that there are risks from opening up, but there should be some hard limits on extra number of peoples in hospitals in a serious condition. Because if lifting of measures means that hospitals can't cope its dangerous for everyone. So they should have something like a limit, if more then so many people go into the hospital and it looks like hospitals cant cope measures will follow. 

 

Living with it and opening up also means you need to have measures in place to close things down if it gets out of hand. So in this way the Phuket sandbox is showing the risks of opening up. These risks don't come from tourists but from the fact that things are opened up.

 

Opening up, in the sense that venues are open, results in more cases no matter the level of vaccination. That’s proven from Israel to UK to Singapore.

 

but more cases is ok, if people are protected by way of vaccinations because hospitalizations should be low. But in Thailand hospitalizations stay high because they hospitalize all cases, asymptomatic and symptomatic, and only when hospital beds are full do they start filling community centers with asymptomatic people.

 

in Phuket, with its high vaccination rate,  they need to start seeing the wood from the trees and hospitalize only truly sick people. Others can isolate, or not, but cases should not now be the focus imho

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, BestB said:

Leading doctor can look at all other countries and see, covid cases not going anywhere. However with vaccinations, people do not end up in ICU or dead.

 

So there are 2 choices, keep country closed, Covid is not going to disappear and totally wipe out the economy or open up, same covid, and learn to live with it while rebuilding the economy

There is no question , the country must open up. However it can only be done when a large majority of the population is fully and adequately vaccinated.

Thailand completely dropped the ball on vaccinations , consequently their economy will suffer for 6-9 months longer than those nations who were better prepared.

There really is no getting away from the fact , the mistake has been made , it cannot be changed.

[joecoolfrog]

33 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Opening up, in the sense that venues are open, results in more cases no matter the level of vaccination. That’s proven from Israel to UK to Singapore.

 

but more cases is ok, if people are protected by way of vaccinations because hospitalizations should be low. But in Thailand hospitalizations stay high because they hospitalize all cases, asymptomatic and symptomatic, and only when hospital beds are full do they start filling community centers with asymptomatic people.

 

in Phuket, with its high vaccination rate,  they need to start seeing the wood from the trees and hospitalize only truly sick people. Others can isolate, or not, but cases should not now be the focus imho

What you say is absolutely correct , providing 70% of the adult population is ADEQUATELY vaccinated. Given the concerns regarding the Chinese vaccinations effectiveness against Delta , im not sure Phuket is robust enough at the present time.

[Spock]

3 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

There is no question , the country must open up. However it can only be done when a large majority of the population is fully and adequately vaccinated.

Thailand completely dropped the ball on vaccinations , consequently their economy will suffer for 6-9 months longer than those nations who were better prepared.

There really is no getting away from the fact , the mistake has been made , it cannot be changed.

Thailand's inability to get on the vaccine bandwagon is a disgrace. These ridiculous tourists schemes have simply been a sideshow to detract from the bleeding obvious, that the government has been totally inept at securing vaccines for its own people, while its neighbour, Cambodia, has immunized 99% of the population of Phnom Penh and a large proportion of its population. I am hoping now to go to Cambodia instead of Thailand in December for an extended stay.

[richard_smith237]

45 minutes ago, georgey said:

I have to say that I think you're wrong here. Taking your example of 1m tests over a given period, assume (for the sake of a round number) that 10% come up as positive. I think what is being said by the UK office of NS & the Lancet is that 0.8 to 4% of the (in my example) 10% positives are false - i.e. 0.08 to 0.4% of the total tested.  

That also makes sense... more sense than just 0.8% to 4.0% of the total tested number. 

 

 

[Guderian]

Just order a few million more doses of Sinovac, the secret behind Thailand's Covid miracle, lol.

[Cherrytreeview]

The doctor isn't saying what some posters on this forum have been spouting.

'All falling into place for tourist high season.' etc

 

That particular poster seems to have disappeared. I wonder if he knows his utterances are absolutely devoid of facts or reality and he's being found out.

Thailand has been in various degrees of  lockdown since April.

Thailand isn't going to surrender any gains by allowing a free for all through BKK.

I have always thought that since the Delta variant arrived that the game had changed.

If you are a farang who owns a tourist facing business in Thailand, then cut your losses and get out.

Otherwise, you will burn what capital you have left.

Get out now.

 

 

[MrJ2U]

I don't think 70% is a safe number in regards to vaccination rates.

 

Especially with the main vaccines being the low effecieny ones from China.

 

One of the more important things being the number of hospital beds.  Proper beds in a hospital for cases besides COVID-19.

 

Big problem in Phuket, close to critical.

 

I guess you have to open someday though.  It's disappointing that the government just doesn't commit to a realistic number of mRNA vaccines, say 70 million to start with.

[Classic Ray]

Sandbox to me means a plaything for children, who just about match the intellect of those involved in making the decisions.

[Siamwhiteelephant]

1 hour ago, inThailand said:

With it being named the Sandbox, the writing was in the sand on day one. 

Could rename it Quicksand Box after the quick reopening.

[Cherrytreeview]

7 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

What you say is absolutely correct , providing 70% of the adult population is ADEQUATELY vaccinated. Given the concerns regarding the Chinese vaccinations effectiveness against Delta , im not sure Phuket is robust enough at the present time.

Many think it's 90% plus or quite simply herd immunity isn't possible.

Singapore reintroduced restrictions after a week of opening up.

Johnson hasn't ruled out similar restrictions to last year in the UK during the winter.

I will repeat again.

If enough pressure is put on a countries healthcare system, restrictions will be reintroduced.

 

 

[wensiensheng]

8 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

What you say is absolutely correct , providing 70% of the adult population is ADEQUATELY vaccinated. Given the concerns regarding the Chinese vaccinations effectiveness against Delta , im not sure Phuket is robust enough at the present time.

I take your point and personally, I agree with you. But that isn’t the governments policy. I posted in another thread that the guy who does my garden in Phuket was double vaxxed with sinovac some months ago. He’s just had a booster shot of …..sinovac. So in that sense the government is doubling down.

 

the problem is the focus on quantitative numbers of vaccinations, and not qualitative numbers of vaccinations. In other words, heading down a blind alley with foot pressed firmly on the accelerator. Well, it’s the path they chose.

[BusyB]

4 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted from computing and means 'a testing environment in a computer system in which new or untested software can be run securely’ - The adoption of the term ’Sandbox' for the Phuket Sandbox simply means that Phuket has been used as a testing environment to see if the incoming international visitors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. 

 

As far as the Sandbox model itself - it has been proven that incoming international arrivals do not contribute to the increase of Covid-19 on the Island of Phuket - The ’test’ itself has established what it needed to.

 

Phuket and other area’s of Thailand have encountered an increase in domestic transmission.

The Sandbox ’test’ has shown that Vaccinated arrivals who have also had a negative Pre-Flight and Arrival Covid-19 RT PCR test do not present an elevated threat to the spread of Covid-19 within Thailand. 

 

From that ’test' perspective the information established from the Phuket Sandbox has been a success. 

 

IF someone was of the opinion that the Phuket Sandbox model was to increase tourism and provide economic stimulus to the Tourism Industry within Phuket, then they have fallen foul to believing the ’theatre’ and misinformation. 

 

 

The increase in case load in Phuket is not related to the increase in vaccinated individuals from overseas. 

The increase in case load in Phuket is related to domestic transmission in areas of high-population density such as slum accommodation and markets. 

Covid-19 is not being spread on the beaches and in restaurants, most of which are virtually empty (in Phuket).

 

 

 

Thanks for a genuinely intelligent assessment of the situation.

What amazes me is how many farangs think the 'Sandbox' has a) failed and b) failed because of the tourists and are c) essentially campaigning to keep everything shut.

Amazing Thailand.

 

[Ebumbu]

Well, the "Phuket Petri Dish" tested poorly with focus groups, so the branding team suggested "sandbox" -- to suggest the carefree life of a child. 

[spidermike007]

This is unbelievably fake, and misleading news. Out of the Phuket cases, less than 1% to date have been from foreigners. 99% have been from Thai and Burmese locals. So, this has nothing to do with Bangkok opening to tourism, and this doctor is talking utter garbage. He should be locked up on a felony charge, for inciting panic and fear. 

 

Time to open everything back up. Time for the adults to demonstrate some courage. This is not the Bubonic plague. All adults in the room, please stand up now. 

[Cherrytreeview]

16 minutes ago, BusyB said:

Thanks for a genuinely intelligent assessment of the situation.

What amazes me is how many farangs think the 'Sandbox' has a) failed and b) failed because of the tourists and are c) essentially campaigning to keep everything shut.

Amazing Thailand.

 

It did fail.

They forecast 100,000 got at most 30,000.

Only 6,000 estimated real tourists.

Families being separated, with children taken off to hospital, isn't the easiest sell in the world for Thomas Cook.

UK's domestic tourist areas like Cornwall, have received record bookings for next summer.

Tells you all you need to know about the future of Thai tourism.

No one's coming.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that the Phuket Sandbox could be seen as a model for what will likely occur in Bangkok when the city is opened up more fully. 

But we're being told Phuket is a success story.

[IamNoone88]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well someone has spoken up and exposed the true nature of how the Sandbox has actually failed and created more issues then it solved, but hey many think that the Sandbox has been a true success.  A success for only those with Skin in the game, but not he regular old little folks who rely on tourism. If as he says this could follow on to the other openings here in Thailand then it is not a guess as to why they have pushed the opening dates back.

The Phuket Hotel Association as the main benefactor pushed this project from the get go. Now they are deafeningly silent while the restrictions strangle the greater economy and other business.

[nobodysfriend]

43 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

If you are a farang who owns a tourist facing business in Thailand, then cut your losses and get out.

Otherwise, you will burn what capital you have left.

Get out now.

Or try to hold on another year , in the meantime have time to learn to speak and write mandarin ...

[Bangkok Barry]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

grab this Covid by the horns and deal with it but let people live again and go back to normal life

You can't do both at the same time. That is the whole point.

[richard_smith237]

52 minutes ago, Classic Ray said:

Sandbox to me means a plaything for children, who just about match the intellect of those involved in making the decisions.

And perhaps your intellect if by now you are unaware what the Sandbox means in terms of a testing environment. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandbox_(software_development)

 

[Bangkok Barry]

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

What you say is absolutely correct , providing 70% of the adult population is ADEQUATELY vaccinated. Given the concerns regarding the Chinese vaccinations effectiveness against Delta , im not sure Phuket is robust enough at the present time.

In my mind, although I had Sinovac for my first jab (and AZ as my second), I'm counting it as irrelevant and in due course will have a third jab which I will consider to be my second. Everyone would be wise to do the same. Sinovac might be better than nothing, but not by much.

[LongTimeLurker]

4 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

Any positive tests really should be tested again to ensure the accuracy of the false positive result.

No!! Keep re-testing the negatives until you get a (false) positive so you can earn more money!

[Mr Meeseeks]

1 hour ago, Cherrytreeview said:

If you are a farang who owns a tourist facing business in Thailand, then cut your losses and get out.

Otherwise, you will burn what capital you have left.

Get out now.

 

 

I gave that advice in April/May 2020 and was rounded on. ????

[Bkktodd]

6 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted from computing and means 'a testing environment in a computer system in which new or untested software can be run securely’ - The adoption of the term ’Sandbox' for the Phuket Sandbox simply means that Phuket has been used as a testing environment to see if the incoming international visitors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. 

 

As far as the Sandbox model itself - it has been proven that incoming international arrivals do not contribute to the increase of Covid-19 on the Island of Phuket - The ’test’ itself has established what it needed to.

 

Phuket and other area’s of Thailand have encountered an increase in domestic transmission.

The Sandbox ’test’ has shown that Vaccinated arrivals who have also had a negative Pre-Flight and Arrival Covid-19 RT PCR test do not present an elevated threat to the spread of Covid-19 within Thailand. 

 

From that ’test' perspective the information established from the Phuket Sandbox has been a success. 

 

IF someone was of the opinion that the Phuket Sandbox model was to increase tourism and provide economic stimulus to the Tourism Industry within Phuket, then they have fallen foul to believing the ’theatre’ and misinformation. 

 

 

The increase in case load in Phuket is not related to the increase in vaccinated individuals from overseas. 

The increase in case load in Phuket is related to domestic transmission in areas of high-population density such as slum accommodation and markets. 

Covid-19 is not being spread on the beaches and in restaurants, most of which are virtually empty (in Phuket).

 

 

 

Thank you making this so clear.  How one…even just one  can be confused is beyond me.  Deniers still exist

Edited September 23, 2021 by Bkktodd

[purcho]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted from computing and means 'a testing environment in a computer system in which new or untested software can be run securely’ - The adoption of the term ’Sandbox' for the Phuket Sandbox simply means that Phuket has been used as a testing environment to see if the incoming international visitors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. 

 

As far as the Sandbox model itself - it has been proven that incoming international arrivals do not contribute to the increase of Covid-19 on the Island of Phuket - The ’test’ itself has established what it needed to.

 

Phuket and other area’s of Thailand have encountered an increase in domestic transmission.

The Sandbox ’test’ has shown that Vaccinated arrivals who have also had a negative Pre-Flight and Arrival Covid-19 RT PCR test do not present an elevated threat to the spread of Covid-19 within Thailand. 

 

From that ’test' perspective the information established from the Phuket Sandbox has been a success. 

 

IF someone was of the opinion that the Phuket Sandbox model was to increase tourism and provide economic stimulus to the Tourism Industry within Phuket, then they have fallen foul to believing the ’theatre’ and misinformation. 

 

 

The increase in case load in Phuket is not related to the increase in vaccinated individuals from overseas. 

The increase in case load in Phuket is related to domestic transmission in areas of high-population density such as slum accommodation and markets. 

Covid-19 is not being spread on the beaches and in restaurants, most of which are virtually empty (in Phuket).

 

 

 

Probably the most intelligent post on this feed....... Problem I see was the authorities may have mislead small business's to believe this Sandbox was going to bring Phuket back to life and everything would revert to pre covid.

[koele2]

A handful of positive covid cases from foreign tourists in Phuket and everyone gets all scared.  Lock them down, don’t let them travel!  Make them stay in govt approved hotels to keep the rich Thais happy, but also to stop the spread!  Meanwhile, hundreds of local cases everyday, no one bats an eye.  Is the virus more dangerous when a tourist has it but not a Thai?  I guess so.

[paul1804]

6 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

 

The Sandbox... The very name ‘Sandbox’  is a term adopted from computing and means 'a testing environment in a computer system in which new or untested software can be run securely’ - The adoption of the term ’Sandbox' for the Phuket Sandbox simply means that Phuket has been used as a testing environment to see if the incoming international visitors contribute to the spread of Covid-19. 

 

As far as the Sandbox model itself - it has been proven that incoming international arrivals do not contribute to the increase of Covid-19 on the Island of Phuket - The ’test’ itself has established what it needed to.

 

Phuket and other area’s of Thailand have encountered an increase in domestic transmission.

The Sandbox ’test’ has shown that Vaccinated arrivals who have also had a negative Pre-Flight and Arrival Covid-19 RT PCR test do not present an elevated threat to the spread of Covid-19 within Thailand. 

 

From that ’test' perspective the information established from the Phuket Sandbox has been a success. 

 

IF someone was of the opinion that the Phuket Sandbox model was to increase tourism and provide economic stimulus to the Tourism Industry within Phuket, then they have fallen foul to believing the ’theatre’ and misinformation. 

 

 

The increase in case load in Phuket is not related to the increase in vaccinated individuals from overseas. 

The increase in case load in Phuket is related to domestic transmission in areas of high-population density such as slum accommodation and markets. 

Covid-19 is not being spread on the beaches and in restaurants, most of which are virtually empty (in Phuket).

 

 

 

Thankfully someone on here has spoken some sense, vacinatted tourists are not the reason there are 200 plus new covid cases daily in Phuket and if 30,000 plus foriegn tourists visited the island in the last 2 months that's better than the previous 6 months so whilst nothing like the figures touted by TAT which we all laughed at you cannot say its a failure. It has proven that vaccinated tourists are low risk covid spreaders and the very reason why Thailand should slowly reopen the country, people need money, busineses need money, the government needs money and life has to go on with or without Covid! <deleted>