Why herd immunity could be an impossible goal for Thailand

[webfact]

 

With some 56 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered so far, Thailand has made considerable progress in protecting its population of 70 million. However, Thais should take note that a high vaccination rate does not guarantee herd immunity – as shown by the recent spike in infections overseas. 

 

Prominent virologist Prof Dr. Yong Poovorawan, who heads Chulalongkorn University’s Centre of Excellence in Clinical Virology, recently dismissed hope that herd immunity will ever be achieved where COVID-19 is concerned.

 

“That hope was high at the start of mass vaccinations. We believed that if most people got jabbed, herd immunity would materialize,” he said. “However, a review of what has happened overseas rules out that possibility.”

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/why-herd-immunity-could-be-an-impossible-goal-for-thailand/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-10-06

 

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[Cherrytreeview]

Thailand's vaccination progress is pathetic.

Nearly a year after vaccines where discovered and they only have about 30% of the population fully vaccinated.

Even that figure is most likely incorrect because many people got the BOGOF vaccine from big brother.

The West said months ago that herd immunity would be impossible but as usual it takes months for that to be computed by Thai's.

[RubbaJohnny]

Each regime is different, in democratic places with free press, non corrupt courts and leaders accountable to recall and regular elections it would be unthinkable to let the poor and weak, old and remote just wither, but that is the default policy, the hisos had world class vax long ago and buy better everything.

 

We are witnessing Darwinism in the land of smirks.

[Tropicalevo]

36 minutes ago, webfact said:

With some 56 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered so far, Thailand has made considerable progress in protecting its population of 70 million.

Misleading number. Not 'considerable progress' at all.

Some lucky bluggers have had 4 doses. Most have had none.

One just cannot believe the numbers that this government quote.

Then there are the doses 'wrongly' administered and the squeezing more doses per vial.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Tropicalevo

[Captain Monday]

There is no "herd immunity" possible with covid-19.

Is there herd immunity from the flu or colds?

Probably need a new vaccine every 6 to 9 months

[RotBenz8888]

No, of course covid19 won't dissappear, but hopefully, we'll get less serious cases and deaths. So, get 70-80% of the population inoculated and open up the country so we can get on with our lives! 

[Rimmer]

A misleading derogatory post has been removed

[Gaccha]

The virologist is the guy who knows but he's dumbing it down for us. 

 

Herd immunity is inevitable. But it will likely happen by infection. Eventually the virus will evolve into something like a typical cold as our defence mechanism will be too well adapted for variants to defeat it. 

 

The virus will be endemic and will always be around in animals as "reservoirs" for it. But every 7-10 years it'll come back as they always do and this is good because it'll repeatedly prime our immune systems to deal with it. 

 

It's being defeated. It's taking time. But we're winning. The virologist is staying on message because the public still think of vaccines like a magic bullet. He has his propaganda for the average Thai family living in Nakhon Nowhere. They don't understand disease vectors and they don't understand the meaning of Herd Immunity. He's keeping it real. 

 

There are more sophisticated explanations available of reality for those of you who want to read them. 

[Pedrogaz]

With vaccines that provide only +/- 6 months immunity and a rapidly mutating virus there is no possibility of herd immunity.......think flu.

[ukrules]

I can't wait for the 'green pass' to come, it's going to be mayhem.

 

They have one in Israel, it gets revoked 6 months after your latest shot. Full details here direct from the Israeli government : https://corona.health.gov.il/en/directives/green-pass-info/

 

There's going to be mayhem both over there and here when they introduce a similar system.

 

[rickudon]

No herd immunity. Israel, UK have 80% vaccination rates but still lots of cases. Vaccination helps stop death and hospitalisation, but doesn't help a lot in stopping infection. Being infected doesn't help stop being re-infected either - friend of son in UK has notched up 3 infections and 2 vaccinations - 2 infections in last 3 months alone. Welcome to the new common cold strain (but nastier).

[ThLT]

Why countries not seeing herd immunity?

 

Getting the vaccine doesn't make you immune, and mostly doesn't stop transmission of the virus. The vaccine mostly just reduces your chance of dying if you get COVID while vaccinated.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by ThLT

[CartagenaWarlock]

Herd immunity is impossible as evidenced with high vaccinated countries like UK, and Israel where 7-day average infection rate per million population is running at more 3,000 and death at more than 10. The only solution is to live with covid and set a baseline that the nation's health care infrastructure can handle. If anybody thinks a nation can achieve herd immunity, they are either living in a delusional reality or falling for Western media's propaganda. Western media after months of touting the achievement of their vaccine for herd immunity has started to realize the impossibility. UK is doing even worse than US where vaccination rate in the population is very low compared to wealthy nations and there is a strong anti-vax groups who are ready to lose their jobs rather than get jabbed. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by CartagenaWarlock

[Gaccha]

There's a confusion here between the government education for the layman in Nakhon Nowhere and what herd immunity always has and will always mean. 

 

Covid-19 was never going to evaporate out of existence. Herd immunity does not mean that. Rampant infections in the UK, USA despite high vaccination levels do not mean herd immunity is unachievable. Quite the contrary, you are watching it happen. 

 

Firstly, relax. This thing is endemic but it will end up something like the common cold. Secondly, herd immunity refers to indirect protection through the herd. Think of shoals of fish or herds of zebra.

 

The individual gains protection because they are surrounded by layers of others with pretty good camouflage etc (zebra stripes etc) but which is far from great. For one person the immunity is not enough... but for the herd it is enough. The vector is blocked. The virus can only get so far. It's chance of successful infection per each person is reduced enough that it eventually runs out of steam. Herd Immunity. 

 

Unfortunately, governments and the WHO have messed around with propaganda campaigns to the extent of even changing the definition of herd immunity on the WHO website. It has been foolish and undermined confidence in them. It has clearly created confusion as demonstrated in this thread. It has given the impression the governments are lying or acting foolishly.

 

The COVID-19 will infect you. But the aim is to blunt its effectiveness until it all but inevitably warps into a Common Cold. And then that's when they want you to catch it.

 

More people are going to die, but the number is only around 4.5 million so far. Far below 1% of the World's population, so the strategies being used are working. So breathe in. 

 

Stay strong girls and boys. If you are under-60, have no co-morbidities (e.g. obesity or diabetes) then AstraZeneca's current research position is that you will never need a booster, let alone the hysterical claims of once every 6 months for the rest of your life suggested by this thread. 

[Cherrytreeview]

2 minutes ago, Gaccha said:

There's a confusion here between the government education for the layman in Nakhon Nowhere and what herd immunity always has and will always mean. 

 

Covid-19 was never going to evaporate out of existence. Herd immunity does not mean that. Rampant infections in the UK, USA despite high vaccination levels do not mean herd immunity is unachievable. Quite the contrary, you are watching it happen. 

 

Firstly, relax. This thing is endemic but it will end up something like the common cold. Secondly, herd immunity refers to indirect protection through the herd. Think of shoals of fish or herds of zebra.

 

The individual gains protection because they are surrounded by layers of others with pretty good camouflage etc (zebra stripes etc) but which is far from great. For one person the immunity is not enough... but for the herd it is enough. The vector is blocked. The virus can only get so far. It's chance of successful infection per each person is reduced enough that it eventually runs out of steam. Herd Immunity. 

 

Unfortunately, governments and the WHO have messed around with propaganda campaigns to the extent of even changing the definition of herd immunity on the WHO website. It has been foolish and undermined confidence in them. It has clearly created confusion as demonstrated in this thread. It has given the impression the governments are lying or acting foolishly.

 

The COVID-19 will infect you. But the aim is to blunt its effectiveness until it all but inevitably warps into a Common Cold. And then that's when they want you to catch it.

 

More people are going to die, but the number is only around 4.5 million so far. Far below 1% of the World's population, so the strategies being used are working. So breathe in. 

 

Stay strong girls and boys. If you are under-60, have no co-morbidities (e.g. obesity or diabetes) then AstraZeneca's current research position is that you will never need a booster, let alone the hysterical claims of once every 6 months for the rest of your life suggested by this thread. 

I think you'll find most of us are quite relaxed.

Your post is obvious to anyone with an IQ above 10.

What concerns us is when and how the Thai government accepts the covid reality.

Until that time, I think the Thai government will limit the tourist numbers by various means.

They are scared of the Thai health care system being overwhelmed.

[WhiteBuffaloATM]

UK adult vax rate overall probably around 90% now.

Thailand real fully vax adult rate probably near 20%, mostly Sinovac so only perhaps 15% x that 20% = 3% overall vax protection from Delta.

UK not talking about herd immunity, read that might be done at 95% vax.

Dont forget our strong natural immunity. Covid Death Rates, with Delta, appear still around 0.03% population, maybe 85% of those over 75. 

 

 

 

 

[Swimfan]

3 hours ago, rickudon said:

No herd immunity. Israel, UK have 80% vaccination rates but still lots of cases. Vaccination helps stop death and hospitalisation, but doesn't help a lot in stopping infection. Being infected doesn't help stop being re-infected either - friend of son in UK has notched up 3 infections and 2 vaccinations - 2 infections in last 3 months alone. Welcome to the new common cold strain (but nastier).

Uk vaccination rates are at 67% still really an inadequate level it’s surprising given their  early start. 

[BangkokReady]

Quote

Why herd immunity could be an impossible goal for Thailand

Because their vaccination drive is so slow that by the time they reach 50% the first people to have gotten their jabs will need to be vaccinated again?

[BangkokReady]

15 minutes ago, Swimfan said:

Uk vaccination rates are at 67% still really an inadequate level it’s surprising given their  early start. 

It's incredible that people can come out with figures like 80 or 90% and not even bother to do a quick google search to confirm, then come to some sort of conclusion.

 

Yup.  67% vaccinated in the UK, with some of those probably needing boosters soon.  Still over 22 million people unvaccinated.  That's a pretty large number and it makes it difficult to say "the vaccines hardly work".

[DavisH]

4 hours ago, Pedrogaz said:

With vaccines that provide only +/- 6 months immunity and a rapidly mutating virus there is no possibility of herd immunity.......think flu.

Antibody titers are only part of the equation. You should learn a bit about immunology. Boosters certainly won't be required "forever" or even a decade. Two shots, then natural infection is the way to go. Only the appearance of radically different variants will require new vaccines. Coronaviruses mutate wlower than flu viruses - that's why we often see new flu vaccines on the market each year, but most people never take them. 

[rickudon]

38 minutes ago, Swimfan said:

Uk vaccination rates are at 67% still really an inadequate level it’s surprising given their  early start. 

UK vaccination rate - 82% double jabbed for over 16, 90% at least one jab. Not sure where your 67% figure comes from. Vaccination of under 16's only just agreed a couple of weeks ago.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

[Sametboy2019]

9 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Thailand's vaccination progress is pathetic.

Nearly a year after vaccines where discovered and they only have about 30% of the population fully vaccinated.

Even that figure is most likely incorrect because many people got the BOGOF vaccine from big brother.

The West said months ago that herd immunity would be impossible but as usual it takes months for that to be computed by Thai's.

Easy to knock but how is Israel doing with the best vaccine available? Thailand on the other hand with a poor vaccine seems to be doing ok

[ftpjtm]

1 hour ago, rickudon said:

UK vaccination rate - 82% double jabbed for over 16, 90% at least one jab. Not sure where your 67% figure comes from.

Just a guess.

 

Add those under 16 and then calculate the double jab figure?

Edited October 6, 2021 by ftpjtm

[portlandtree]

11 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

No, of course covid19 won't dissappear, but hopefully, we'll get less serious cases and deaths. So, get 70-80% of the population inoculated and open up the country so we can get on with our lives! 

But wait until I return home to ban phe so open the the country without quarantine then close it again if needed

[Stargeezr]

So this COVID virus has been around for how long, and already there are experts on this forum

who do not think that a booster will be necessary.  Wow I am so lucky to be surrounded by so many experts.

  With all the variants that can make you sick or sicker than you may have been if you caught the original

COVID virus, I believe that for the next while a booster that has been formulated to deal with the newer variants

would be something that I would want.  However with all the experts on the forum, what should I believe?

  My gut, I guess.

Geezer