Thailand’s foreign tourism industry will take at least 4 years to recover to pre-Covid levels, leading Asia economists report

[snoop1130]

PHOTO: Manager Online

 

Inbound tourism in Thailand will take another four years to fully recover to the pre-Covid situation after the hardship caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CNBC reports.

 

The news agency reported on Friday, October 29th, regarding the situation of Covid-19 in Thailand and the relaxation of disease control measures prior to the preparation of country reopening in November despite the fact that less than half, accountable for about 42 percent, of Thailand’s population, has been fully vaccinated.

 

Sian Fenner, the lead Asia economist for Oxford Economics, forecasted that Thailand’s inbound tourism will not significantly recover in 2022 even though foreign tourist arrivals are expected to be a 66 percent improvement from 2020/2021, but still below pre-Covid levels in 2019.

 

Full Story: https://thepattayanews.com/2021/11/01/thailands-foreign-tourism-industry-will-take-at-least-4-years-to-recover-to-pre-covid-levels-leading-asia-economists-report/

 

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[JCP108]

...because it may take 4 years for people to be able to use the Thailand Pass successfuly?

[Albert Zweistein]

Wrong, much longer if ever.

[lolalol]

4 years huh? Even if 4 years, Thailand will have to really work hard for those 4 years to recover. 

 

Other neighboring countries are all luring tourist money and they are very diligent about it.

 

Just sitting around and opening doors won't cut it.

[RichardColeman]

OK lets' assume that 4 years is a CORRECT assumption.

 

To hit that pre pandemic target ALL restrictions and entry requirements would have to be dropped - 32 MILLION tourists are not going to do all the nonsense to get there , let alone the demand on the 'Thai pass' overloading

 

The question then becomes, at what stage and when will they drop this total nonsense ? 

 

The number of tourists in Thailand 2020 was about 6.7 million, so fair to say they will be thinking 10 million tourists up next year. That is simply not possible at the current rate of applications.

 

To hit 10 million up next year, and seeing the terrible arrivals on the thai pass, entry restrictions would have to be totally abandoned by March.

 

So, again , when will it be abandoned ? 

 

I would also not be surprised to see a full opening prior to a pre summer election next year - trying to run an election platform on an economy in the toilet with no financial improvement on the horizon in any other country would be suicide politically - at least where you cannot remove the opposition

[JCP108]

51 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

OK lets' assume that 4 years is a CORRECT assumption.

 

To hit that pre pandemic target ALL restrictions and entry requirements would have to be dropped - 32 MILLION tourists are not going to do all the nonsense to get there , let alone the demand on the 'Thai pass' overloading

 

The question then becomes, at what stage and when will they drop this total nonsense ? 

 

The number of tourists in Thailand 2020 was about 6.7 million, so fair to say they will be thinking 10 million tourists up next year. That is simply not possible at the current rate of applications.

 

To hit 10 million up next year, and seeing the terrible arrivals on the thai pass, entry restrictions would have to be totally abandoned by March.

 

So, again , when will it be abandoned ? 

 

I would also not be surprised to see a full opening prior to a pre summer election next year - trying to run an election platform on an economy in the toilet with no financial improvement on the horizon in any other country would be suicide politically - at least where you cannot remove the opposition

My guess is it will be abandoned if/when China allows travelers to Thailand.

 

On your last point: they could always put off the elections or remove the opposition.

[gim12]

it will take longer than that if they continue to have different requirements for international tourists than for  domestic tourists and keep their cumbersome application process meaning the COE and Thailand Pass in place

[Willy Wombat]

They will sell their souls to China before that time.

 

China will say. 'What can you do for us ????' ?

And we let our hordes free to visit you.

[jacko45k]

5 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Wrong, much longer if ever.

Yeah, think you are right. Thailand was losing ground pre-Covid and I see other places getting off the mark better. 

Edited November 1, 2021 by jacko45k

[hotchilli]

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Inbound tourism in Thailand will take another four years to fully recover to the pre-Covid situation after the hardship caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CNBC reports.

Could you CC that to Phipat, he has other visions of recovery.

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, lolalol said:

4 years huh? Even if 4 years, Thailand will have to really work hard for those 4 years to recover. 

 

Other neighboring countries are all luring tourist money and they are very diligent about it.

 

Just sitting around and opening doors won't cut it.

Problem is the borders are open but half the doors are still closed.

[nobodysfriend]

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Inbound tourism in Thailand will take another four years to fully recover to the pre-Covid situation after the hardship caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to CNBC reports.

They know the future because it shows in the brand new crystal ball they just bought from China .

 

Nobody will be able to accurately predict the future .

Just too many variables . Many things can and will happen that can influence that prediction . That is just a possible scenario , one of many ...

[Walker88]

Thailand seems to have a wildly over-inflated view of its attractiveness as a destination, both for tourism and business. Other regional nations, if they step up, can help disabuse Thailand of that notion.

 

On the plus side for Thailand, its western neighbor blew it when they had their own coup. Tourism and FDI had been soaring in Myanmar. Now, except for China back on path to making Myanmar a vassal state and 'renegade province', both tourism and FDI are dead for the foreseeable future.

 

Vietnam, pre-Covid, was becoming a new 'must see' destination, and Vietnam has also begun to lure, successfully, FDI from Japan and other countries that had been dedicated to Thailand. The cuisine is also a match for Thai, as it's a mix of both indigenous Vietnamese and French.

 

As one who has undergone the onerous (and expensive) visa process for a Non-B investor stamp, I cannot imagine other countries make it more difficult and unpleasant to 'allow' Thailand to accept your investment capital. 100+ pages of silly documents, agent fees, plus the blatant demands for 'tributes' are off-putting.

 

Before the Myanmar coup, I thought a good tag line to lure foreign tourists might have been: "Come to Myanmar; We Actually Like You!". The country is (was) welcoming, interesting, has places like Bagan that dwarf anything Thailand has, has a range of cuisine that borrows from Thailand, China and India (ethnic Kachin fare is delightful), still has pristine beaches, sites with history of interest to Western visitors (WWII), and even snow capped 4000 meter mountains up near Putao. Even shopping is superior, as Myanmar can match any of Thailand's 'local crafts', but also has minimal import taxes so the well healed can shop at Louis Vuitton or Prada or Armani and pay a price similar to home. For those who care, wine prices are maybe 10% above what one would pay in Italy or France, vs 100%+ difference in Thailand.

 

Back to Thailand.....being met at Suvarnabhumi by hazmat-clad officials and workers, despite travelers being double vaxxed and recipients of a negative PCR test within the last 72 hours, is not going to scream "Welcome!" to the average tourist. Property owners and spouses/significant others, or single males hoping to meet a string of temporarily significant others,  maybe, but not the typical tourist, and certainly not the HNW 'quality' tourists TAT and the govt claim to seek.

 

If I had to pen one sentence that epitomizes Thailand's vision of tourism, it is:

 

"We want your money, but not YOU"

Edited November 2, 2021 by Walker88

[overherebc]

Now is the time to

[khunpa]

Unfortunately, I think it will take much longer.

Also I think we will see many more expats leaving Thailand in the coming years, including myself.
 

I believe many who have experienced the “mad-decision-making” during the pandemic, have had enough and will be seeking a more foreign friendly and open environment to live in.

 

Let’s face it, Thailand is no longer what it once was and has been going downhill since 2014. And unless that changes, it will be difficult to see much future progress. 
 

A thing that maybe in the long-run could save Thailand would be a financial meltdown and the THB losing a large portion of its value. That could maybe lure tourists, expats and investors back. Also a change in government could be of value to the country.

 

Until then, I think most will seek destinations that are much easier to live in and provides a way better holiday experience.

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by khunpa

[Al BB]

7 hours ago, JCP108 said:

My guess is it will be abandoned if/when China allows travelers to Thailand.

 

On your last point: they could always put off the elections or remove the opposition.

On the last point, no change there then eh?

[khunPer]

Real tourism will not begin to recover before all Covid restrictions are gone, and you can just buy a ticket and enter as 30-days visa exempt. or easily obtain a tourist visa for longer stays with pre-booking of all accommodation. And a real tourist in my view, is someone coming form between a week up to about a month, spending quite some money for a little better life style than when at home. However many of the usual snowbird will still arrive together with some of the loyal yearly visitors, so the 4 year prediction sound quite reasonable...????

[RubbaJohnny]

Longer restrictions the less chance to ever recover

 

While they imagine hi so mmillionaires, who can go anywhere would put up with Immigration nonsense no

 

The low budget tourists are price sensitive, Thailand is no longer such a bargain due to nflation, exchange rates and the cost of entry at present, the insurance hassle alone tho well meant will just send folks elsewhere.

The Brits, Australian, RussansChinese and Indians may try new places in ASEAN like Vietnam/Bali/Snooky/Jeju and never return same the backpackers and retirees

 

Many people like to visit the same places each winter, some make frends, marry ,get a job, star a business  retire that chain has been broken.

[ArcticFox]

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Inbound tourism in Thailand will take another four years to fully recover to the pre-Covid situation

That's overly optimistic.  My guess is that it will never recover as the government's entire focus seems to be to entice wealthy, family tea-toddler to Thailand while discouraging the exact demographics that originally made Thailand a tourist destination in the first place.

"Out with the old normal; In with the New Normal."
From an economical perspective?  It's doomed to failure.