Thailand to lag in tourism recovery despite border reopening: Nomura report

[webfact]

File photo for reference only

 

SHARON SEE

 

THAILAND has laid out the welcome mat for tourists, but visitors aren't exactly making a beeline for the country. The pickup is likely to remain disappointing for the rest of the year, not unlike the situation among its Asean neighbours, a Nomura report has said.

 

The weak outlook is based on projections by Nomura's research tool known as the Tourism Recovery from Inbound International Passengers Tracker (TRIPTracker), which can gauge the recovery prospects of international arrivals while taking into account the rate of full vaccination, degree of openness and travel restrictions in both the source and destination countries of inbound passengers.

 

Nomura analysts applied the TRIPTracker formula to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia following the recent announcements of border reopenings in these three countries. "The results point to a weaker recovery in Thailand than in Singapore, despite Thailand's more aggressive re-opening," said the team.

 

Full story: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/asean-business/thailand-to-lag-in-tourism-recovery-despite-border-reopening-nomura-report

 

-- © Copyright ASEAN BUSINESS 2021-11-13

 

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[gejohesch]

That does not come as a surprise.

[RichardColeman]

From link : Thailand's TRIPTracker score is set to reach 4.9 per cent by year-end, from 4 per cent on Nov 1. (A score of 100 per cent indicates full recovery to pre-pandemic levels.)

 

That's not only like down the toilet, it's like round the u-bed and heading for the sewage.

 

The fact it has only can be seen as rising 0.9% after 'full opening' should be a kick up the proverbial for the loonies predicting millions. But it wont, they'll just stick with lunatic predictions until it dawns that nobody in numbers is coming

[Willy Wombat]

If only the delusional TAT and Thai government would wake up from their wet dreams that Thailand is The Garden of Eden and everybody would beating down their doors

[ezzra]

 

56 minutes ago, webfact said:

THAILAND has laid out the welcome mat for tourists

Is just that this mat is as difficult confusing and costly to step on entering the promised land...

[welshguy]

"Laid out the welcome mat"?

 

Yeah right!  they couldn't  have made it more annoying, time consuming, etc. if they'd tried!

 

I was "hoping", that I may return this Winter....Alas, all their "restrictions" etc. have put me right off.

 

Even if I was inclined to do all that nonsense? There doesn't appear to be much open there anyway?

 

Welcome mat indeed!  Its about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.

[sezze]

Again , this is predictable . Some people in tourist industry need to open their eyes . If you want to focus on standard tourists , it isn't the time right now . Long haul flights , in times like these are still a huge gamble and no 1st time tourist is gonna come right now , or even any time soon . Only people with some ties to Thailand , family , business , friends , long time tourists are willing to take that jump right now . Families will not come , no way since the risk something happening is way to big. People who believe otherwise are just crazy. I am not even talking about closed nightlife ( and it is logic that it is closed , since it is everywhere around the world the last thing opening, thx to  more risky behavior, close contacts , indoor...) .

I even doubt it will change for 2022 , since many people plan their holidays months (6 and more) in front . If you see the numbers in EU right now , we see another big wave rolling over , in many countries with less hospitalisations ( vaccines) , but with more infections . Times are still way to difficult to go take risks like that . People just want to stay closer to home .

Thailand can think they are nr1 in the world and everybody can't wait to stay there , but the fact is , Thailand does have some good points , but other countries have good points also . They are just 1 of the 195 countries in the world.

[me2052]

Thailand never had to do something for the tourists they alway came here for several reasons. But already several years the tourism sector was going down with western tourists. Yrah it was compensated with the Chinese. Several reasons as stricter visa rules, double pricing, and more did not attrack many tourists anymore. Than we got the Covid pandamic and that killed the tourism sector. But how to built it up again??? Not with all the rules that are needed now to enter the country, Not with focus on wealthy people...... No much more is needed.... Look at other countries how they deal with tourists, and learn from them. A tourist is coming to relax, enjoy, and don't want to be seen as a ATM machine, or an intruder... There is a lot of work to do to make Thailand again the touristic destination in the future.. it will take however several years  

[Skeptic7]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

THAILAND has laid out the welcome mat for tourists,

More like the Unwelcome Mat. 

 

Thailand to lag in tourism recovery 

Ya think?!? ????

Edited November 12, 2021 by Skeptic7

[ThailandRyan]

Wait a minute, I thought they were expecting the economy to have already hit rock bottom and things were looking upward with tourism as an additional savior......hmmm.  My pet rhinoceros said it's all stinky feces.

[herfiehandbag]

You really don't need Nomura's research tool known as the Tourism Recovery from Inbound International Passengers Tracker (TRIPTracker), to work that one out! 

 

Snowball and Cookie (the Chihuahuas) suggested it to me when they were having their breakfast the other day!

Edited November 13, 2021 by herfiehandbag

[mikebell]

'Nomura report' = No mora tourists.

[Sydebolle]

What a farce, face saving joke by the government. One has to be out of his mind to travel to Thailand with all those instructions, non-working websites, tests, documents and bureaucratic dragging of everything. 6,000 Baht for the first night, cold crappy food in plastic containers for 400 Baht and treated like a highest-infection culprit on death row.

The country is NOT open; you want to see open countries, then go to Europe, Senegal, Dominican Republic etc. Hotels, bars, restaurants full, making up for the losses over the last 18 months - except Thailand and their slavery programme Goweed Sipgaw!

But it is their country and if the dirty farang decide to go elsewhere, then it is and remains the fault of the alien! 

 

[Gsxrnz]

This writer is living in an alternate universe.  What's he smokin'?

Edited November 13, 2021 by Gsxrnz

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

THAILAND has laid out the welcome mat for tourists, but visitors aren't exactly making a beeline for the country. The pickup is likely to remain disappointing for the rest of the year, not unlike the situation among its Asean neighbours, a Nomura report has said.

The problem is that the welcome mat doesn't have welcome written on it..

It has a list of hurdles one has to jump.. if they can navigate the app.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, ezzra said:

 

Is just that this mat is as difficult confusing and costly to step on entering the promised land...

Some have found it to be a "rug pulled out from under their feet" !

[overherebc]

2 hours ago, sezze said:

Again , this is predictable . Some people in tourist industry need to open their eyes . If you want to focus on standard tourists , it isn't the time right now . Long haul flights , in times like these are still a huge gamble and no 1st time tourist is gonna come right now , or even any time soon . Only people with some ties to Thailand , family , business , friends , long time tourists are willing to take that jump right now . Families will not come , no way since the risk something happening is way to big. People who believe otherwise are just crazy. I am not even talking about closed nightlife ( and it is logic that it is closed , since it is everywhere around the world the last thing opening, thx to  more risky behavior, close contacts , indoor...) .

I even doubt it will change for 2022 , since many people plan their holidays months (6 and more) in front . If you see the numbers in EU right now , we see another big wave rolling over , in many countries with less hospitalisations ( vaccines) , but with more infections . Times are still way to difficult to go take risks like that . People just want to stay closer to home .

Thailand can think they are nr1 in the world and everybody can't wait to stay there , but the fact is , Thailand does have some good points , but other countries have good points also . They are just 1 of the 195 countries in the world.

I agree with the point on rising infections and the drop in those requiring a stay in hospital. That is the important bit for me. 

On the vaccination front Singapore have, or are about to, charge for admission to hospital for treatment if you are not vaccinated, by your choice. The figure mentioned is $18,000.

[spidermike007]

Phiphat (and Prayuth) you have made history. 100 years from now, in the hospitality industry classes at the university level, they will still be teaching about you, as the man who presided over the once great industry of tourism, the man who helped destroy the industry millions depended upon. They will talk about you when the students are visiting the hollowed out shells of once formerly great hotels, as the men who helped precipitate the demise and decline of Thailand, from the tiger of SE Asia (and at one time the 21st largest economy in the world) to a whiny, sickly, skinny, disease infested alley cat, on it's last legs. And on par with Burundi, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Yemen, and Sierra Leone. 

 

You cannot explain it with logic, common sense and reason. But, you can explain it with deep seated and malicious pathology. How the Thai people got themselves into a position like this, with no moral authority whatsoever, anywhere to be seen, is a disaster. All the moral guidance and authority is gone. This is truly a very dark time for Thailand, it's people and much of the expat community. 

 

Some of the devastation can be blamed on Covid. Much of it can be blamed on Prayuth and his band of goons and thieves. 

 

It is more and more apparent by the day, that the destruction and sabotage of Thailand's tourism industry is likely deliberate, and planned out. Nothing else makes sense. They have been wanting to get rid of the nightlife for as long as they have been in power. What better way to do this, than use the cover of Covid? Reduce the entire industry to ashes, then rebuild it, in their own pure as snow image. Without a trace of nightlife, or a hint of a sex industry.

 

Of course we know this will not only mean a total failure to ever revive the tourism industry, but likely a larger sex industry. Try to stop it, and oppress it, and what happens? It just grows. When you have a nation that pays 3,000 to 5,000 baht a month more for a college graduate with a 4 year degree (after a very expensive education) than an unskilled laborer, what choice do some women have? 

 

Just "say not to sex" is as stupid and misguided as "just say no to drugs". But stupid barely even begins to describe the current leadership. Possibly moronic, fake, misguided, arrogant, out of touch, pathological, lacking one iota of compassion, black hearted, misled, ill informed, and incapable of leadership is closer to the mark. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by spidermike007

[Tropicalevo]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

not unlike the situation among its Asean neighbours

Are the Asean neighbours open yet?

I thought that it was only Thailand.

[newnative]

I think we all could have come to the same conclusion without the need of the TRIPT Tracker.  

[86Tiger]

7 hours ago, me2052 said:

"Thailand never had to do something for the tourists they alway came here for several reasons............." 

 

The only thing that made Thai tourism industrial scale is relatively cheap and easy to get to.  Eliminate or alter either of those and the masses go away.

 

As others state more eloquently, the tourism tide was already turning for Thailand pre-covid due to rising costs, Thailand was just not the value it once was relative to other destinations.

 

Today, not only is it not cheap, they have absolutely killed the easy to get to aspect.

[morrobay]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Phiphat (and Prayuth) you have made history. 100 years from now, in the hospitality industry classes at the university level, they will still be teaching about you, as the man who presided over the once great industry of tourism, the man who helped destroy the industry millions depended upon. They will talk about you when the students are visiting the hollowed out shells of once formerly great hotels...

 

 

It is more and more apparent by the day, that the destruction and sabotage of Thailand's tourism industry is likely deliberate, and planned out. Nothing else makes sense. They have been wanting to get rid of the nightlife for as long as they have been in power. What better way to do this, than use the cover of Covid? Reduce the entire industry to ashes, then rebuild it, in their own pure as snow image. Without a trace of nightlife, or a hint of a sex industry...

 

 

 

 

So Thai tourism is doomed. But what about all this very major development planned. Some in the Pattaya area going on ? Reference from post by @Walker88 on page 5 , in the topic: Thai nightlife reopening January 16.   BTW I'm not disagreeing with you , just curious as to such opposing forecasts/expectations. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rgluckman/2021/07/08/thai-real-estate-giant-bets-big-on-tourism-rebound-with-32-billion-growth-plan/?sh=4126fdb03ecd

 

[daveAustin]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Phiphat (and Prayuth) you have made history. 100 years from now, in the hospitality industry classes at the university level, they will still be teaching about you, as the man who presided over the once great industry of tourism, the man who helped destroy the industry millions depended upon. They will talk about you when the students are visiting the hollowed out shells of once formerly great hotels, as the men who helped precipitate the demise and decline of Thailand, from the tiger of SE Asia (and at one time the 21st largest economy in the world) to a whiny, sickly, skinny, disease infested alley cat, on it's last legs. And on par with Burundi, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Yemen, and Sierra Leone. 

 

You cannot explain it with logic, common sense and reason. But, you can explain it with deep seated and malicious pathology. How the Thai people got themselves into a position like this, with no moral authority whatsoever, anywhere to be seen, is a disaster. All the moral guidance and authority is gone. This is truly a very dark time for Thailand, it's people and much of the expat community. 

 

Some of the devastation can be blamed on Covid. Much of it can be blamed on Prayuth and his band of goons and thieves. 

 

It is more and more apparent by the day, that the destruction and sabotage of Thailand's tourism industry is likely deliberate, and planned out. Nothing else makes sense. They have been wanting to get rid of the nightlife for as long as they have been in power. What better way to do this, than use the cover of Covid? Reduce the entire industry to ashes, then rebuild it, in their own pure as snow image. Without a trace of nightlife, or a hint of a sex industry.

 

Of course we know this will not only mean a total failure to ever revive the tourism industry, but likely a larger sex industry. Try to stop it, and oppress it, and what happens? It just grows. When you have a nation that pays 3,000 to 5,000 baht a month more for a college graduate with a 4 year degree (after a very expensive education) than an unskilled laborer, what choice do some women have? 

 

Just "say not to sex" is as stupid and misguided as "just say no to drugs". But stupid barely even begins to describe the current leadership. Possibly moronic, fake, misguided, arrogant, out of touch, pathological, lacking one iota of compassion, black hearted, misled, ill informed, and incapable of leadership is closer to the mark. 

Yep, planned all along. Horrible people. I know Thais don’t do confrontation and are generally apathetic, but how there are not millions on the street forcing these idiots out is beyond me. 
 

Just the EFFORT to get to Thailand; for what, a still-closed country with none of the fun. Counting returning Thais and expats as tourists indeed. But if they are truly flummoxed by the small uptake and realisation that Thailand is no longer special, then only one thing for it. Shut mouths and stop messing around or 2022 is also gone. 

 

[RichardColeman]

20 minutes ago, daveAustin said:

but how there are not millions on the street forcing these idiots out is beyond me. 

Guns, tanks, chemically enhanced water cannons and over enthusiastic protectors of the Generals with batons probably has a lot to do with that argument ! ???? 

[Exilerunner]

Who wants to pay 350000 THB for a quarantine stay after a positive PCR test post touchdown in BKK like the fellow that spend his vacation in quarantine separated from his family. No health insurance pays that if you are not sick.

[baboon]

12 hours ago, welshguy said:

"Laid out the welcome mat"?

 

Yeah right!  they couldn't  have made it more annoying, time consuming, etc. if they'd tried!

 

I was "hoping", that I may return this Winter....Alas, all their "restrictions" etc. have put me right off.

 

Even if I was inclined to do all that nonsense? There doesn't appear to be much open there anyway?

 

Welcome mat indeed!  Its about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.

You aren't alone. I have been discussing it with mates and work colleagues, asking them to 'look into' going to Thailand and if they would be theoretically interested.

 

So far a collective 'Pff, the hell with all that. Must be joking', when they see what is required. Thing is, this is what they will now associate with Thailand for evermore. They won't look into coming again.

[baboon]

1 minute ago, baboon said:

You aren't alone. I have been discussing it with mates and work colleagues, asking them to 'look into' going to Thailand and if they would be theoretically interested.

 

So far a collective 'Pff, the hell with all that. Must be joking', when they see what is required. Thing is, the current requirements are what they will associate with Thailand for evermore. They won't look into coming again.

 

[gejohesch]

11 hours ago, sezze said:

 

Thailand can think they are nr1 in the world and everybody can't wait to stay there , but the fact is , Thailand does have some good points , but other countries have good points also . They are just 1 of the 195 countries in the world.

I don't want to hurt you, but this needs to be corrected : Thailand is not just nr1 in the world, it is also the Centre of the Universe and, as someone said, the Garden of Eden.

[Sir Dude]

TAT and the current government just don't get it. Thailand became such a success because it was hot, beautiful, reasonably priced living, welcoming, hassle free, fun, free-wheeling, exotic etc. etc., which sadly, has all been ripped out by the deluded killjoy squad.

Trying to turn it into Monaco is a lofty delusion that just won't happen. Also, who puts military generals in charge of leisure/tourism/fun for tourists or foreigners? Lol.

[zzaa09]

15 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

From link : Thailand's TRIPTracker score is set to reach 4.9 per cent by year-end, from 4 per cent on Nov 1. (A score of 100 per cent indicates full recovery to pre-pandemic levels.)

 

That's not only like down the toilet, it's like round the u-bed and heading for the sewage.

 

The fact it has only can be seen as rising 0.9% after 'full opening' should be a kick up the proverbial for the loonies predicting millions. But it wont, they'll just stick with lunatic predictions until it dawns that nobody in numbers is coming

And it surely won't improve, by any means, if most know they'll be required to endure the convoluted Thailand Pass procedures. 

We're talking of real tourists and holidaymaker-types, less those that have deeper associations/connections with Thailand. 

 

Some could have easily predicted this - the general down trend and failure of the "reopening", laced with bureaucratic and restrictive nonsense, doesn't look promising. And unless the brilliant authorities get a clue real quick, this deluded mess will spill into the next two quarters of 2022. The so called high season is a miss. 

 

What they could do to salvage the whole mess [and save a little face] might be to abandon or highly modify the TP program.

Reality might suggest that this will not come about. Their loss.....