Grim worst case for Thailand next year if people lower their guard against COVID-19

[snoop1130]

 

The Thai Ministry of Public Health has unveiled bleak pictures of three worst case scenarios in Thailand next year, if the COVID-19 Omicron variant spreads out of control while the population reduces their discipline over protecting themselves against the virus.

 

According to Public Health Permanent Secretary Dr.Kiattibhoom Vongrachit, the Department of Disease Control, in the first scenario, in which the majority of the population do not strictly comply with universal preventive measures, it is projected that an average of 30,000 people will be infected by Omicron variant every day from March through July.

 

In the second scenario, in which the majority of the population do not lower their guard, the new Omicron infection rate is estimated at 10,000-15,000 cases a day during the five-month period, with the rate dropping to about 10,000 cases a day, if the majority of the people strictly follow preventive measures.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/grim-worst-case-for-thailand-next-year-if-people-lower-their-guard-against-covid-19/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-12-27

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[ThailandRyan]

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

[bkk6060]

It will probably be at the highest level and more.

Not many I see are doing anything bars, clubs, restaurants open no mask or distance a free for all for everyone hey hey hey lets party!.

Edited December 27, 2021 by bkk6060

[WEBBYB808]

Too late the guard is lowered.  And now they say they will fight Prostitution  as they admitted it exist in Thailand today, but you'll not see them on soi 6, soi buakow,  tree town hindering  it.  Enjoy it everyone!

[koratkarlos]

From my reading today it appears that 1) Sinovac offers no protection from Omicron (a limited sample study out of Hong Kong) and 2) the hospitalization rates for unvaccinated people are 11% lower for Omicron compared to Delta (data from England).  If these observations are true cases and hospitalizations should reach prior peak levels.  My guess is by late February.  But will they report it.  And will the country lock down again.  Uncertain times ahead for sure.

[ukrules]

Why do they not think they will get 50,000 to 100,000 cases per day like everywhere else?

 

I see no reason why this level can't happen by mid January but I see plenty of reasons why this level will never be detected.

 

Of course they're never going to detect more than 50,000 tests if they only test 50,000 people per day and that would be with an unprecedented 100% positivity rate - something which never happens - and if it did it suggests there's a whole load more cases than can ever be measured with the infrastructure in place.

 

If they took a year to build a network of massive testing facilities then they would be able to measure the spread with some degree of accuracy but they don't appear to have done that.

[StayinThailand2much]

The third scenario is unlikely, so Thailand better be prepared for scenarios 1 or 2.

 

Both seem actually conservative, considering Omicrons characteristics, with scenario 1 less than 1.5 times August 2021 numbers, and scenario 2 much lower than August numbers.

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by StayinThailand2much

[champers]

I believe this article only gives half the story. Along with the published 3 worst case scenarios there was also 3 best case scenarios but these are unpublished. Perhaps they offer a degree of balance.

[StayinThailand2much]

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

if the majority of the people strictly follow preventive measures

In my building, there are about 10 notes reminding tennants to wear masks all the time. Most do, but who doesn't wear them anymore: maids and security staff of the building!

[ThailandRyan]

Sukhumvit here in Bangkok was jumping off tonight, a monday of all days. Many foreigners in town and the majority being dumb arises and not wearing masks, either on the streets or in the MRT. Sometimes you can't fix stupid.

[garyk]

Feer mongering nut jobbers in Thailand. I'm in Colombia. No body cares, open as normal. Cases low. Life as usual.

People do wear masks and wash their hands.

[Jingthing]

My take now is that the Covid bad times last here until at least 2023. Happy New Year?

[Jingthing]

14 minutes ago, garyk said:

Feer mongering nut jobbers in Thailand. I'm in Colombia. No body cares, open as normal. Cases low. Life as usual.

People do wear masks and wash their hands.

Where in Colombia?

Level 3 High

COVID-19 in Colombia - COVID-19 High - Level 3: COVID-19 High - Travel Health Notices | Travelers' Health | CDC

 

Colombia: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data

 

129,000 deaths. Much harder hit than Thailand (29,000) has been even though Thailand has a population about 20 million higher.

 

A lot of how different countries respond is related to politics and local culture.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Jingthing

[thaiman]

2 hours ago, WEBBYB808 said:

Too late the guard is lowered.  And now they say they will fight Prostitution  as they admitted it exist in Thailand today, but you'll not see them on soi 6, soi buakow,  tree town hindering  it.  Enjoy it everyone!

Trying to get rid of prostitution and trying to stop the spread of covid seem about equal in futility. 

[smedly]

3 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai Ministry of Public Health has unveiled bleak pictures of three worst case scenarios in Thailand next year

1. Allowing mass gathering events over the new year

2. Not allowing all bars and reastaurants to open causing mass overcrowding 

3. Promoting travel across the country

[daveAustin]

1 hour ago, StayinThailand2much said:

In my building, there are about 10 notes reminding tennants to wear masks all the time. Most do, but who doesn't wear them anymore: maids and security staff of the building!

I’m not surprised; people are <deleted> off and weary about it all. For sure, masks indoors and busy places but a policy of permanently wearing the things is unnecessary and hinders freedom and quality of life. Look, there’s a cold going around that everyone will catch eventually. Be cautious but let’s not overextend the misery, eh!

[RichardColeman]

Heavens, all this doom and gloom mongering. It's deaths and hospitalisations that matter. UK is currently about 80% less full in the hospitals, death are fallings. Time to get on with life now. It will not get much better for years if you do not start living with it and keep shutting down the planet 

[webfact]

Omicron numbers Could reach 30,000 per day if people are not vigilant

By Erich Parpart

 

 

The number of daily Covid cases could reach 30,000 per day by mid-March if the majority of people and businesses fail to strictly follow prevention measures, the Ministry of Public Health warned on Monday.

 

Thailand discovered more than 500 Omicron cases so far and the ministry does not want to suggest another lockdown.

 

“We are now at a new crossroad because of the outbreak of Omicron and the new variant has a high transmission rate,” said Dr Kiattiphum Wongrajit, the ministry’s permanent secretary.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/36120/omicron-numbers-could-reach-30000-per-day-if-people-are-not-vigilant/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-12-28

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

[smedly]

ormcron is increasingly looking like a bad cold - lets hope so

 

This current Thai government want it to continue because as soon as this pandemic is over they are over, so many people I talk to have an anger buillding that I have never seen before, they are fully aware of all the billions of emergency budgets over the last 2 years that have disappeared into a black hole called a pocket - there is anger in this country  

[ourmanflint]

The only reason it will get this bad is if there are large sections of the public that remain unvaccinated. Vaccines are the answer, no matter what all the loonies keep telling you

 

 

[Bohemianfish]

 

7 hours ago, Jingthing said:

My take now is that the Covid bad times last here until at least 2023. Happy New Year?

The government will throw in the towel on their plans by the end of next year in order for travel to return to "normal." Perhaps just proof of vaccination. Three years.

[Bohemianfish]

25 minutes ago, smedly said:

ormcron is increasingly looking like a bad cold - lets hope so

 

This current Thai government want it to continue because as soon as this pandemic is over they are over, so many people I talk to have an anger buillding that I have never seen before, they are fully aware of all the billions of emergency budgets over the last 2 years that have disappeared into a black hole called a pocket - there is anger in this country  

It's still putting people in the hospitals - nearly all not vaccinated. Hopefully, those numbers are dropping. Less severe, but still severe for many.

 

However, many of us are all for dropping all restrictions and let things fall where they may. Rip the band-aid off method. Not let this all drag out as many will not get vaccinated.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Bohemianfish
added info

[garyk]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Where in Colombia?

Level 3 High

COVID-19 in Colombia - COVID-19 High - Level 3: COVID-19 High - Travel Health Notices | Travelers' Health | CDC

 

Colombia: WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data

 

129,000 deaths. Much harder hit than Thailand (29,000) has been even though Thailand has a population about 20 million higher.

 

A lot of how different countries respond is related to politics and local culture.

Data I just looked at for Dec. 24 showed about the same infection rate as Thailand. Both third world countries and both under tested. So accurate I think.  Going up slightly because of the holidays. 

 

And Colombia is wide open and has been for a long time.

People that are dying are unvaccinated people here in Colombia , and in Thailand.

Venezuela refugees are pouring into Colombia and they are not getting vaccinated.. 

 

Again, Thailand is just milking the tourists for all it can. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by garyk

[Petey11]

30000 a day, never. Anutin said Thailand too strong for Omicron and would beat it.

[jerrymahoney]

So --

 

Thailand BAD

Colombia GOOD

 

Thanks for the update.

[dg1980]

If this omicron is as infectious as they say, once this gets going in Pattaya, look out!! 

 

 

[Petey11]

7 minutes ago, dg1980 said:

If this omicron is as infectious as they say, once this gets going in Pattaya, look out!! 

 

 

I expect it already has got going but they won't know until it's too late, whack a mole all over again. Said before with the threat of incarceration for been covid positive or a close contact does not encourage people to report infections unless they are I'll enough to need medical care.

[Dialemco]

Under estimate probably about 100,000 to 200,000 every day as Comricron is very infectious. Hopefully will burn it self out and be mild within about 4 weeks after it reaches its peak . That will be tested cases actual cases could  4  to 5  times higher. Herd immunity will hopefully be the final outcome.

[vandeventer]

14 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is grim if the continued complacency and lack of social distancing and mask wearing continues.  On the morning walk today as we went by a few street food cart sellers, the folks operating the cart and making the food, were not wearing masks, and yet the lines at 7:30 am were long as folks picked up food to take to work today and they did not seem bothered by this fact, or they did not care.

 

My Housekeeper, who is also a live in and has her own room, mentioned this to the GF yesterday.  She had the day off as she does every Sunday, and upon returning from stepping out in the morning was completely besides herself over this fact.

It seems like the new fad where I live is wearing the mask on ones chin. Maybe the Thai language gets blocked by the mask or people just cant breathe what ever the case Omicron is here and there is not much we can do about it.

[Megasin1]

17 minutes ago, Dialemco said:

Herd immunity will hopefully be the final outcome.

Really ? based on what, the more likely outcome of a high infection rate is another variant.....Roll on Christmas 2022