Omicron panic decimates Thai tourism "high season" - foreign tourists cancel, events scrapped, flights stopped, insurance woes

[CG1 Blue]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Agreed but up from 7,000 to 10,000 in 3 days is quite a jump, not your normal winter crisis

Looks like it's more like 8,000 currently. although no increase is good news. 

Some interesting charts here, with the number of patients needing mechanical ventilation dropping off. Hopefully this bodes well for Thailand and the ROW. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

 

[Guest Isaanlife]

9 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

Very, very few people have tested positive on arrival - something like 0.1 - 0.3 percent (pre-Omicron). Nothing at all improbable about that and certainly not consistent with a nefarious scheme.

So what it the reason for quarantine then and why, at one point, were the quarantine hotels almost full?

[herfiehandbag]

10 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Are you suggesting that the Thai government is giving false positives for money?

Well they lie and take backhanders for just about everything else.

 

But of course no Thai would do such a thing!

[Bkktodd]

20 hours ago, BusyB said:

Would you like to fly on an aircraft piloted by someone who was suffering from any kind of coronavirus?

Maybe you would. Maybe you've not seen how people can go from having a laugh one minute to fighting for their lives a few minutes later when their blood oxygen levels plummet. I don't know, but I do know from experience that flying staff love to fly.

 

Wth?  I am one of those flying staff….many pilots refuse the vaccine.  Refuse mask wearing. Mostly politically motivated. Total idiots i say.  Airlines have mandated get vaccinated or fired.  Flight attendants comply more as most countries require vax cards to even work a trip.  Relegated to flying domestic otherwise.  Pilots have refused trips if a coworker shows symptoms of severe covid. 

[Bkktodd]

2 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/in-focus/40010576

 

Don't know if old/new news but Bangkok governor closing bars/entertainment until mid January.

I lose track of whats official or unofficial.

Now end of January 

[Bkk Brian]

28 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Looks like it's more like 8,000 currently. although no increase is good news. 

Some interesting charts here, with the number of patients needing mechanical ventilation dropping off. Hopefully this bodes well for Thailand and the ROW. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

 

It gives the reason why some areas have not updated yet but the most up to date are contained below.................

 

Scroll down to excel file named "Daily Admissions and Beds 29 December 2021 (XLSX, 41KB)" open and scroll down to section:

"Total beds occupied by confirmed covid 19 patients as of 8am 29 December" = 10,462

 

Also as confirmed in this tweet by Dave West Deputy editor at Health Service Journal.

"NEW Today's covid hospital numbers: The number of covid patients in English hospitals as topped 10,000 for the first time since the beginning of March."

https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1476215882770751494

You can view thread for more info

Edited December 30, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

Latest John Campbell video entitled "Most omicron hospitalizations incidental" Fact check

 

When sharing this false information he got this info from a columnist at the Daily Telegraph which he linked to, however.............take a look at this tweet then the article.

 

"Today, I look at claims about diagnoses of patients with positive tests. A columnist wrote: "Only one third" are being treated for Covid in London. This is false: it is about three in four. There is confusion between inpatients and net patients."

 

Fact check Article link

 

False Claim:

"70% of London Covid inpatients are not in hospital for Covid. They test positive after admission for other ailments. Only one third of “Covid patients” are being treated for Covid. Get better data!"

 

Fact:

"This is false. NHS England publish the available statistics on this matter. This is in their ‘primary diagnosis’ supplement. In two data files, their statistics are between 18th June and 23rd December 2021. Acute trusts provide these figures on a ‘best endeavours’ basis.

These figures cover the stock of current patients, rather than flows of patients in and out. On 23rd December, there were about 1,600 occupied ‘Covid-19 beds’ in London. These beds contain patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. That test can be up to 14 days before admission, or after the patient has come to hospital. Among these patients, around 1,200 had Covid-19 as their primary diagnosis.

Three in four — not one in three — of positive patients in London have the disease as their main diagnosis."

 

John Campbell said at the end of that video he may be wrong about his predictions and would come back to it if he was, lets see if he comes back about this.

 

[Bkk Brian]

56 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Looks like it's more like 8,000 currently. although no increase is good news. 

Some interesting charts here, with the number of patients needing mechanical ventilation dropping off. Hopefully this bodes well for Thailand and the ROW. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_in_mechanical_ventilation_beds

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

 

 

Just on another note, those links you supplied are up to the 22nd Dec only when 8,246 were in hospital, the data I supplied was from the 29th Dec

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

NEW : Length of stay in hospital for Covid patients looks to be falling. A document accompanying the latest Sage minutes allows us to calculate the duration. The results show a drop in every age-group:-

 

The drop is most stark in the over 80s which goes from 12 days to 5. We use median here because the mean would be skewed by a small number of patients who are in hospital for months.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043782/S1468_Dynamic_CO-CIN_report_W3.pdf

Also now backed up by a new study just released from South Africa:

 

5. Which % of people who tested + for #COVID19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)

 

6. Which % of #COVID19 hospital patients had severe disease?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients = a not a documented hospital outcome when the study = submitted]

 

8. % of #COVID19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)

 

9. Median hospital stay:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days

 

10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510)

 

Study Link from Lancet preprint

[Cherrytreeview]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also now backed up by a new study just released from South Africa:

 

5. Which % of people who tested + for #COVID19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)

 

6. Which % of #COVID19 hospital patients had severe disease?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients = a not a documented hospital outcome when the study = submitted]

 

8. % of #COVID19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)

 

9. Median hospital stay:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days

 

10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510)

 

Study Link from Lancet preprint

Apparently the 4th wave was the exit wave for the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Let's hope history repeats itself for this pandemic's 4th wave.

[Blumpie]

6 minutes ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Apparently the 4th wave was the exit wave for the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Let's hope history repeats itself for this pandemic's 4th wave.

It bloody well looks like it is right now!  This is a doosie and it does literally nothing.  We are overrun with omicron and nobody is really sick!  The symptoms are ridiculous - a mild to moderate cold.  Some people get aches like a flu for 12 hours.  Then it goes away like that!  

No loss of taste, smell...

I had it and my penis fell off though (on one account I am kidding - the other, I have no idea because most are asymptomatic.  I've been in close contact, don't need to isolate and no symptoms and no test available)

[candide]

3 hours ago, Trip Hop said:

I was reading an interesting post on Twitter yesterday by Dr Michael Mina in the states, who appears to have a balanced view and has advocated using LFTs for screening for a long time. 
 

He was discussing that people were complaining that LFTs were not picking up Onicron in the first day or so, as you have described yourself? However, he explained further that this wasn’t the LFTs fault, it was something to do with the genetics of the particular mutation and that exactly the same problems would be experienced with PCR if tested at the same time?

I am not medical doctor s o I may be wrong, but my layman assumption is that it may take time to produce enough antigens to be detected, as it is an antigen test.

[biggles45]

"Who in their right mind is going to travel 6,000 miles to put up with heads you win, tails your taken to hospital" 

 

And who would trust a corrupt society to administer an honest test in the first place? 

[Thunglom]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:11 PM, Sydneydave said:

Yes, the dengue vaccine caused the death of some 6,000 people.

Could the increasing numbers of people currently ending up in hospital be indicative of a similar situation developing?

That is a totally bizarre claim. One thing about most conspi=racy theories is that if you take a step back and look at it rationally the whole thing falls apart.

[Thunglom]

I think Thailand should look at what's going on OUTSIDE Thailand. UK has just recorded a 90% increase in hospital admissions week on week. 

Do you want a country with over 130,000 cases per day sending people to Thailand and do you think Thailand could cope with a similar increase in cases?

Edited December 30, 2021 by Thunglom

[Thunglom]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also now backed up by a new study just released from South Africa:

 

5. Which % of people who tested + for #COVID19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)

 

6. Which % of #COVID19 hospital patients had severe disease?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients = a not a documented hospital outcome when the study = submitted]

 

8. % of #COVID19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)

 

9. Median hospital stay:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days

 

10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510)

 

Study Link from Lancet preprint

and UK  Hospitalisations up 90% week-on-week, confirm NHS England.

[Blumpie]

5 hours ago, biggles45 said:

"Who in their right mind is going to travel 6,000 miles to put up with heads you win, tails your taken to hospital" 

 

And who would trust a corrupt society to administer an honest test in the first place? 

A total idiot, that's who.

[Thunglom]

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Also now backed up by a new study just released from South Africa:

 

5. Which % of people who tested + for #COVID19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)

 

6. Which % of #COVID19 hospital patients had severe disease?

- Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients = a not a documented hospital outcome when the study = submitted]

 

8. % of #COVID19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)

 

9. Median hospital stay:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days

 

10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510)

 

Study Link from Lancet preprint

and UK  Hospitalisations up 90% week-on-week, confirm NHS England...  and this is from cases 2 weeks ago. 

England has pubs and clubs open over the holiday period and the real increases won't be known until weeks one and two of the new year.

[ChC1]

At this moment, it is far easier to visit Saudi Arabia as a tourist for Europeans and Americans than Thailand, makes you think, huh?

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:

- Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)

- Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)

- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510)

Omnicron is hard on the un-vaccinated younger population, but is significantly milder for the 20-59 age group. Vaccination works.

NB: Why do you start at #5 and omit #7 in ur listing?

 

[JensenZ]

On 12/29/2021 at 11:27 AM, thaiman said:

Thailand reaps what it sows!

Really? In case you didn't know, covid is a worldwide problem, and things are much worse in many other countries. Using covid as an excuse to bash Thailand? Shame on you!

[Bkk Brian]

59 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Omnicron is hard on the un-vaccinated younger population, but is significantly milder for the 20-59 age group. Vaccination works.

NB: Why do you start at #5 and omit #7 in ur listing?

 

? I provided the link for people to read the full list on twitter ana a link to the full study, what more do you need.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Thunglom]

30 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

? I provided the link for people to read the full list on twitter ana a link to the full study, what more do you need.

a logical conclusion?

[Thunglom]

there seems to be a misconception tat if you post swathes of statistics (usually from a single source) that it proves a point. In fact stats mean NOTHING without analysis - they are not FACTS they are numbers and they need a sensible comment to go with them.

[Bkk Brian]

8 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

a logical conclusion?

If you follow the link to the study you will reap your desire. It is dozens of pages long and has its own conclusion section

 You may not have picked up that my point in posting it was to highlight that Omicron stay in hospital is far less than in delta.

Edited December 31, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Thunglom]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

If you follow the link to the study you will reap your desire. It is dozens of pages long and has its own conclusion section

So I take it you didn't understand it enough to give a point to your post yourself?

Edited December 31, 2021 by Thunglom

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

So I take it you didn't understand it enough to give a point to your post yourself?

I guess this needs more explaining to you, try reading the full thread rather than trolling:

Edited December 31, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[LivinLOS]

On 12/29/2021 at 8:12 AM, BusyB said:

I suspect most haven't even noticed how many flights the airlines have had to cancel because of staff off sick. The same is beginning to bite across the economy ... everything from ATC to water suppliers and shops ...

It's not just about the medical services, it's about the whole economic infrastructure if everyone gets hit at the same time.

And all the talk about the low death rates in South Africa ignores that something like half the population is under 40, the group that is least affected.

I agree.. Its on my radar and I think there could be some decent near term short potentials.. On the flip side it feels like this variant could blast through society relatively quickly, and in a few months burn out.. Leaving a population with enough immunity to really get into some proper recovery not this new normal nonsense.. 

Theres a good chance this is the last blowoff of the covid experience that actually shuts down things. 

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

? I provided the link for people to read the full list on twitter ana a link to the full study, what more do you need.

So why skip #7?

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

So why skip #7?

I was quoting the twitter thread on it and supplied the link which leads directly to all 16 tweets which contains a number of graphs, a little long to post here:

 

However just for you here is #7

 

7. "What counts for severe disease? - Acute respiratory distress - Oxygen supplementation - Ventilation - Intensive care unit admission - Death"

 

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1476535918781734912

 

 

I take it you're now satisfied?