Omicron panic decimates Thai tourism "high season" - foreign tourists cancel, events scrapped, flights stopped, insurance woes

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Can you link to that? This is a report from figures published by the the UK Health Agency at 1am today Thai time.

 

"The last daily #OmicronVariant overview will be reported on Friday 31 December. As data has shown that Omicron cases now constitute more than 90% of all community COVID-19 cases in England, our daily dashboard will provide the most updated info on COVID-19 case figures."

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

Double post? I already replied to this..................

 

That figure of 10,000 was for England only so missing a large chunk from Scotland, NI and Wales. 

 

The estimate of incidental cases of admissions being due to other reasons of 80% as you claim is not the same as a more reliable source ie Chris Hopson CEO of the National Health Service trusts and Providers who puts it at 30%.

 

And Dr Julian Tang, a professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said that the proportion of people in hospital with Covid, rather than because of it, will vary a lot between different hospitals depending on factors including the local incidence of Covid. NHS data reveals the situation varies by region, with about 22% of Covid patients in hospital on 21 December primarily being treated for another issue in the south-west, compared with 39% in the Midlands.

 

In England, 70% of hospital patients with Covid are there primarily because of the virus

 

I agree time spent in hospital is now much shorter however and ICU and oxygen requirements do not seem to be rising which is fantastic news.

 

Watching a youtube channel from an ex nurse and now non medical DR who has no epidemiologist qualifications, who spends much of his time patting himself on the back for past predictions and cherry picking data that suits those predictions is not my idea of a good source for covid, particularly when at the end of a video he says if I'm wrong then I will tell you in a future vid! With 2 million subscribers I'm sure those opening credit adverts are making him a nice profit.

[kiwikeith]

30 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

"Omicron is now clearly spreading rapidly but it's not really severe," said Dr Supakit Sirilak, director-general of the Department of Medical Sciences (DMS).

At least 108 countries have detected cases of the highly transmissible strain while all states in the US have recorded cases, he said, pointing to the need for continuous monitoring of the variant's development.

[kiwikeith]

29 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Double post? I already replied to this..................

 

That figure of 10,000 was for England only so missing a large chunk from Scotland, NI and Wales. 

 

The estimate of incidental cases of admissions being due to other reasons of 80% as you claim is not the same as a more reliable source ie Chris Hopson CEO of the National Health Service trusts and Providers who puts it at 30%.

 

And Dr Julian Tang, a professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said that the proportion of people in hospital with Covid, rather than because of it, will vary a lot between different hospitals depending on factors including the local incidence of Covid. NHS data reveals the situation varies by region, with about 22% of Covid patients in hospital on 21 December primarily being treated for another issue in the south-west, compared with 39% in the Midlands.

 

In England, 70% of hospital patients with Covid are there primarily because of the virus

 

I agree time spent in hospital is now much shorter however and ICU and oxygen requirements do not seem to be rising which is fantastic news.

 

Watching a youtube channel from an ex nurse and now non medical DR who has no epidemiologist qualifications, who spends much of his time patting himself on the back for past predictions and cherry picking data that suits those predictions is not my idea of a good source for covid, particularly when at the end of a video he says if I'm wrong then I will tell you in a future vid! With 2 million subscribers I'm sure those opening credit adverts are making him a nice profit.

He takes no money from that work, presents books he has written for free, helps people in need in Africa, is highly respected in the UK,and appears on many European news channels, has also been on with Denmarks leading health expert who advises the Danish government, so thats not who you describe, sounds more like someone wanting to degrade him. 

[Trip Hop]

1 hour ago, BusyB said:

I was referring to SARS CoV 2, although I also wouldn't want a pilot with a cold to be flying my plane either ... think about it ...

Or driving a train, or a 40 tonne truck, or any other number of infrastructure tasks ... as a supervisor I told people to stay at home with colds - before they infect others at work as well.

And I have never worked with a cold or flu. Much less Covid-19.

But maybe it doesn't worry you. 

That is fine if the people with colds are being paid to sit at home, which for general workers in the infrastructure industry is very rare? However in places like the UK, if that approach was taken, nothing would be built on time, costs would spiral and everyone would be wondering why their taxes and everything else was going up? I’ve got 30 years under my belt in UK construction and I think I could count on my fingers as to how many days in that I’ve actually had ‘off sick’?  For a heavy head cold or the flu, there’s nothing like dosing yourself with some flu remedy & vitamin C, wrapping up warm and getting out in the good old British winter weather to blow it out of you?

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

He takes no money from that work, presents books he has written for free, helps people in need in Africa, is highly respected in the UK,and appears on many European news channels, has also been on with Denmarks leading health expert who advises the Danish government, so thats not who you describe, sounds more like someone wanting to degrade him. 

He takes no money................lol

 

I take him for what he is, someone unqualified who posts his thoughts on covid based on data he decides to use as anyone else could and thats about all. I prefer source material and commentary from the authors of that material, not diluted snippets that can be used to follow a narrative for headlines and clicks As for any charity work he may do, what on earth has that got to do with anything.

Edited December 30, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Bernietravelling]

NOT Omicron is killing the high season !
 

It was the CCSA, deciding to stop Test&Go !

[Cherrytreeview]

Khon Kaen banning alcohol in restaurants from January 1 - 7.

Chonburi, allegedly, is having a meeting tomorrow to do something similar.

This will get the tourists flooding back.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Cherrytreeview
Edit

[The Hammer2021]

They will be fortunate  if its only decimated. That would leave 90% untouched and still

functioning

[GregKeo]

On 12/29/2021 at 11:21 AM, ozfarang said:

But hospital admissions are not increasing dramatically.

Australian cases nearly doubled over night but hospital admissions only up slightly and ICU and ventilator case were down marginally.

If Thailand follows a trajectory similar to Australia then their health system will cope

The jury is still well and truly out on this. The NSW government has, before children are largely vaccinated or the population can access booster vaccines, chosen the Let It Rip policy, encouraged by the Federal government.

 

Christmas Day was a huge super-spreader event. The wave of infections will only now be starting to show in the stats. What will not show is the number of people being infected, not requiring hospitalisation, but unable to work. Hospitals are already facing staff shortages as people succumb to the extraordinary burden placed on them by Covid-19. Many have resigned or retired, burnt out. Many of those still working are dog-tired, on the edge of puling the pin too. And many will be victims of the virus, spreading it to co-workers and staying at home to isolate or to recover from symptoms. Either way hospitals don't function without health care workers from doctors to janitors. Elective surgery and other 'not yet life-threatening' surgeries are already being cancelled/postponed.

 

Tomorrow New Years Eve will produce yet another super-spreader event.

 

So holding up Australia's response to Omicron as a shining beacon to other nations is a very questionable call. 

[Virt]

5 hours ago, Saanim said:

My comment was meant to the CDC declaration:

 

After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.  

 

Has CDC recalled this statement since? How will it be practised after next week? 

They are only taking about CDCs own original PCR test.

 

Most hospitals and private companies does not even use this test anymore.

There are many more tests on the market than CDCs original test.

 

Stop making it sound like there is a problem.

 

Read this and see if that answers your question.

 

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/cdc-pcr-test

 

"The CDC's move shouldn't cause any issues for people who need a COVID test. For one, it's only withdrawing its EUA request for its own test. It won't impact the hundreds of other tests still in use.

Plus, very few labs in the country are still using this test, says Dr. Breining"

[The Hammer2021]

Just now, GregKeo said:

The jury is still well and truly out on this. The NSW government has, before children are largely vaccinated or the population can access booster vaccines, chosen the Let It Rip policy, encouraged by the Federal government.

 

Christmas Day was a huge super-spreader event. The wave of infections will only now be starting to show in the stats. What will not show is the number of people being infected, not requiring hospitalisation, but unable to work. Hospitals are already facing staff shortages as people succumb to the extraordinary burden placed on them by Covid-19. Many have resigned or retired, burnt out. Many of those still working are dog-tired, on the edge of puling the pin too. And many will be victims of the virus, spreading it to co-workers and staying at home to isolate or to recover from symptoms. Either way hospitals don't function without health care workers from doctors to janitors. Elective surgery and other 'not yet life-threatening' surgeries are already being cancelled/postponed.

 

Tomorrow New Years Eve will produce yet another super-spreader event.

 

So holding up Australia's response to Omicron as a shining beacon to other nations is a very questionable call. 

UK hospitals are facing shortages because of 10 day isolation rules, the so called pingdemic, not necessarily because people are so ill. Thousands of NHS workers  are refusing vaccines and trusting in prayer instead

[CG1 Blue]

6 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

10,000 covid hospital patients in England for the first time since 2 March. Total was 7000 just THREE days ago. They aren't all incidental cases. Over 90% of cases are now Omicron

 

Omicron does have teeth, its not just a mild cold. Thailand tends to hospitalize people at the drop of a hat, whats it going to be like when it really gets hold.

Not denying that hospitalisations are creeping up (as they always do at this time of year), but as I understand it a good proportion of those in hospital with Covid were admitted for other ailments but tested positive / caught Covid in the hospital. For those people it's not Omicron that hospitalised them. 

[Bkk Brian]

40 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not denying that hospitalisations are creeping up (as they always do at this time of year), but as I understand it a good proportion of those in hospital with Covid were admitted for other ailments but tested positive / caught Covid in the hospital. For those people it's not Omicron that hospitalised them. 

Or you could read what the experts are saying:

In England, 70% of hospital patients with Covid are there primarily because of the virus

[Virt]

2 hours ago, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

They did some statistics in Denmark prior to omicron.

 

It was roughly 80 % that were admitted because of covid and 20% for other stuff, but those 20% were registered as covid admissions.

 

The problem is that those 20% also require certain procedures for the hospitals and need for specific sections in the hospitals, or having to isolate 1 person in rooms meant for more patients.

 

We too have staffing issue in Denmark.

One hospital has over 200 vacant jobs at the moment and many of those jobs are nurses needed..

 

So all that combined, omicron can still cause an issue within the next month.

 

We're not out of the woods yet, but it looks promising and maybe we can live like normal again in 2022.

Some countries faster than others.

[candide]

1 hour ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Khon Kaen banning alcohol in restaurants from January 1 - 7.

Chonburi, allegedly, is having a meeting tomorrow to do something similar.

This will get the tourists flooding back.

 

 

I have a bad feeling about Pattaya. ATKs out of stock in some pharmacies, people queuing to get PCR tested, and I'm probably infected (but very very mild symptoms thanks to 3 Pfizer jabs).

 

Take care friends!

[sezze]

On 12/29/2021 at 9:47 AM, bougnat said:

So if the hospital system should explode, and it explodes, it might be a good thing if this virus is benign. While most are infected and treated with the effective antibiotics available and which have worked very well for decades. Then the population will be immunized with real natural anti-bodies which will prevail in the organism, unlike these pseudo-vaccines, none of which really bear the name.

No antibiotics ever worked for virus , and neither does it do now . ONLY vaccines were available for virus infections for a long time , as it IS the natural antibody response . THX to the massive research on HIV , there are now some medications around slowing slowing viral infection , giving the body more time to stop the infection .

Antibiotics only work for bacteria , vaccines work for virus .

[Bkk Brian]

29 minutes ago, candide said:

I have a bad feeling about Pattaya. ATKs out of stock in some pharmacies, people queuing to get PCR tested, and I'm probably infected (but very very mild symptoms thanks to 3 Pfizer jabs).

 

Take care friends!

Isn't it wonderful how they stopped publishing ATK positive results in Thailand 2 days ago, just as Omicron gets a foothold

Edited December 30, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[ozfarang]

2 hours ago, GregKeo said:

The jury is still well and truly out on this. The NSW government has, before children are largely vaccinated or the population can access booster vaccines, chosen the Let It Rip policy, encouraged by the Federal government.

 

Christmas Day was a huge super-spreader event. The wave of infections will only now be starting to show in the stats. What will not show is the number of people being infected, not requiring hospitalisation, but unable to work. Hospitals are already facing staff shortages as people succumb to the extraordinary burden placed on them by Covid-19. Many have resigned or retired, burnt out. Many of those still working are dog-tired, on the edge of puling the pin too. And many will be victims of the virus, spreading it to co-workers and staying at home to isolate or to recover from symptoms. Either way hospitals don't function without health care workers from doctors to janitors. Elective surgery and other 'not yet life-threatening' surgeries are already being cancelled/postponed.

 

Tomorrow New Years Eve will produce yet another super-spreader event.

 

So holding up Australia's response to Omicron as a shining beacon to other nations is a very questionable call. 

Thanks for your opinion @GregKeo

[CG1 Blue]

6 hours ago, NanaSomchai said:

"Don't Put All your Eggs in One Basket" comes to mind.

 

This is what happens when you fail to develop other activities/sectors in your Kingdom and you chose the rely on one only: Prostituti*cough* Tourism *cough*.

 

And the worst part of it all? They have learnt absolutely NOTHING from this lesson. Thai logic style.

What do you suggest Thailand should have replaced tourism revenue with? 

Edited December 30, 2021 by CG1 Blue

[Oblomov]

On 12/29/2021 at 6:00 AM, Enoon said:

Rising UK cases are irrelevant in light of the fact that deaths continue to fall and the average length of stay for a hospital admission is 3 days.

 

Because:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/28/omicron-is-not-the-same-disease-as-earlier-covid-waves-says-uk-scientist

 

 

 

 

+ Also UK got it right, at the beginning of the year, with its exemplary Vaccine initiative, and is now doing so again with its Booster programme:

 

 

 

For the UK it's swiftly going from (briefly) "just flu" and more towards "another cold".

 

The major problem is the effect on ordinary, everyday life, as pointless self isolating is "de-staffing" and damaging vast swathes of the socio-economic infrastructure.

 

Of course the former can't be true for those countries who, hubristically, managed to **** up during "half-time".........no names mentioned.

 

But they still get the socio-economic meltdown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And if this variants leaves in its wake, similar levels of natural protection as other strains, then by the numbers involved in Europe, this could be a huge turning point and a major step towards significant herd immunity or at least resistance.

 

Getting fitter, losing the excess weight and eating the right foods all help and it's good that some are being forced to take that more seriously too - everybody I know has had it now and all recovered and very few had any symptoms beyond the flu type symptoms. 

 

I agree - the pointless self-isolating is creating huge problems and the booster program in UK was extremely efficient and fast 

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Or you could read what the experts are saying:

In England, 70% of hospital patients with Covid are there primarily because of the virus

Thanks. So probably 20-30% are not being admitted for Covid.

Some positive signs there too. Infection rates have been high for a few weeks now, yet hospitals are coping. Difficult to use the UK as a barometer though, because we have a 'winter NHS crisis' every year. 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, CG1 Blue said:

Thanks. So probably 20-30% are not being admitted for Covid.

Some positive signs there too. Infection rates have been high for a few weeks now, yet hospitals are coping. Difficult to use the UK as a barometer though, because we have a 'winter NHS crisis' every year. 

Agreed but up from 7,000 to 10,000 in 3 days is quite a jump, not your normal winter crisis

[BusyB]

3 hours ago, Trip Hop said:

That is fine if the people with colds are being paid to sit at home, which for general workers in the infrastructure industry is very rare? However in places like the UK, if that approach was taken, nothing would be built on time, costs would spiral and everyone would be wondering why their taxes and everything else was going up? I’ve got 30 years under my belt in UK construction and I think I could count on my fingers as to how many days in that I’ve actually had ‘off sick’?  For a heavy head cold or the flu, there’s nothing like dosing yourself with some flu remedy & vitamin C, wrapping up warm and getting out in the good old British winter weather to blow it out of you?

Or 3 days light duties for bronchial pneumonia as a boy soldier ... ????

Edited December 30, 2021 by BusyB

[candide]

1 hour ago, candide said:

I have a bad feeling about Pattaya. ATKs out of stock in some pharmacies, people queuing to get PCR tested, and I'm probably infected (but very very mild symptoms thanks to 3 Pfizer jabs).

 

Take care friends!

The good thing is that my TG is also positive, so we can self-isolate together! ????

[candide]

32 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Isn't it wonderful how they stopped publishing ATK positive results in Thailand 2 days ago, just as Omicron gets a foothold

Not to mention that people who test positive with ATK have no obligation to declare it to anyone. I will never make a PCR test and get trapped and ransomed by a Thai hospital. I will self-isolate, order grab food and watch videos.

 

An interesting observation is that first two days the ATKs gave negative results. Today I had no symptoms any more and made an additional self test by precaution, and it was positive. So It's necessary to make tests during 3 days to be sure.

[Bkk Brian]

NEW : Length of stay in hospital for Covid patients looks to be falling. A document accompanying the latest Sage minutes allows us to calculate the duration. The results show a drop in every age-group:-

 

The drop is most stark in the over 80s which goes from 12 days to 5. We use median here because the mean would be skewed by a small number of patients who are in hospital for months.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043782/S1468_Dynamic_CO-CIN_report_W3.pdf

[Cherrytreeview]

https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/in-focus/40010576

 

Don't know if old/new news but Bangkok governor closing bars/entertainment until mid January.

I lose track of whats official or unofficial.

[bradiston]

3 hours ago, Cherrytreeview said:

Khon Kaen banning alcohol in restaurants from January 1 - 7.

Chonburi, allegedly, is having a meeting tomorrow to do something similar.

This will get the tourists flooding back.

 

 

It won't have much of an effect in Pattaya. 7/11s here have been renamed 7th heaven for alkies and their chums.

[Trip Hop]

45 minutes ago, candide said:

Not to mention that people who test positive with ATK have no obligation to declare it to anyone. I will never make a PCR test and get trapped and ransomed by a Thai hospital. I will self-isolate, order grab food and watch videos.

 

An interesting observation is that first two days the ATKs gave negative results. Today I had no symptoms any more and made an additional self test by precaution, and it was positive. So It's necessary to make tests during 3 days to be sure.

I was reading an interesting post on Twitter yesterday by Dr Michael Mina in the states, who appears to have a balanced view and has advocated using LFTs for screening for a long time. 
 

He was discussing that people were complaining that LFTs were not picking up Onicron in the first day or so, as you have described yourself? However, he explained further that this wasn’t the LFTs fault, it was something to do with the genetics of the particular mutation and that exactly the same problems would be experienced with PCR if tested at the same time?