Omicron panic decimates Thai tourism "high season" - foreign tourists cancel, events scrapped, flights stopped, insurance woes

[yogi yogi]

three week holiday and potentially 14 in quarantine.  u would have to be nuts to come in right now

[Saanim]

11 hours ago, Virt said:

CDC article July 21 and fact check July 26.

 

 

My comment was meant to the CDC declaration:

 

After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only.  

 

Has CDC recalled this statement since? How will it be practised after next week? 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, kiwikeith said:

Latest I saw was 80% were coincidental 20% admitted for omicron out of your figure. but you can check that easily the data is available  freely on the nett. I think it was previously with Delta 59% were admitted for covid sars 2 so thats a drop with Omicron to 20% I will pull the chart up later if required but is easy to find..

Can you link to that? This is a report from figures published by the the UK Health Agency at 1am today Thai time.

 

"The last daily #OmicronVariant overview will be reported on Friday 31 December. As data has shown that Omicron cases now constitute more than 90% of all community COVID-19 cases in England, our daily dashboard will provide the most updated info on COVID-19 case figures."

[Guest Isaanlife]

5 hours ago, mar zarych said:

Just submitted a Thailand Pass application for my wife who must return to visit her dying Mother. Confusing enough but the thing that really got me was paying 4200 bt ($130.00) for a PCR test at the airport. Thailand really knows how to welcome tourists!

 

I wonder how many passengers got on a plane with a negative test, got this expensive PCR test in Thailand at the airport and ended up in expensive quarantine?

 

You have to reason if Thailand is going to charge $130 for this test, what else would they do for money? There must be many Thai's that could not afford this test?

 

The kicker is 50,000 thb later, being in their hotel seems to automatically cure you to a positive????????

 

Too risky.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Isaanlife

[herfiehandbag]

4 hours ago, Oracle2022 said:

Said it before, saying it again.

 

Destroying all the "cheap and nasty" tourism places is the goal..............the Hi So Elite can then snap up all the prime land in Pattaya and Phuket and Hua Hin and Sukhumvit.........and develop it into Prime residential and make billions...........

 

This is the game.......... if 6 million Thai's lose their jobs and 250 Thais make billions........the 250 is all that matters.  They Hi So Elite control the country.......the millions of normal Thai's have no say in the running of the country.  The country is fake democracy......

 

Thailand Pass system will be in place for all of 2022 and likely 2023 as well..............Bad cheap nasty guys out........Allow some "verified" people in...........the new Thailand.

 

 

 

Absolutely, except I suspect that establishing "Sihanoukville"style casino enterprises ( open to foreigners, closed to Thais) is very much to the fore, especially in Pattaya.

 

Sihanoukville and the amount of money it makes will certainly not have gone unnoticed!

[daveAustin]

59 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Also -' as Groucho Marx once said-- "It's early yet".

 

It reached Europe earlier than it reached Thailand (may even have begun there, unclear).

 

But yes, the widespread mask wearing does help. As does the dry weather. While this is peak season for spread of respiratory borne pathogens in the West it is low season in Thailand, in Thailand this peaks in the rainy season. Same factors: inclement weather leading people to socialize indoors rather than outside.

 

Surprised you think that, Sheryl. It’s well know that it hit Italy after infected Chinese textile workers brought it over, and was likely in Thailand well before most places given the movement of Chinese visitors there. Likely Spread more readily in Europe due to overcrowding, kissing cheeks and all of the above. 

[daveAustin]

1 hour ago, Isaanlife said:

Feel free to add to the list

You missed increasingly oppressive and erratic overbearing military government. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by daveAustin

[Sheryl]

1 minute ago, daveAustin said:

Surprised you think that, Sheryl. It’s well know that it hit Italy after infected Chinese textile workers brought it over, and was likely in Thailand well before most places given the movement of Chinese visitors there. Likely Spread more readily in Europe due to overcrowding, kissing cheeks and all of the above. 

I was referring to Omicron variant, not the original variant.

 

First documented in South Africa but later evidence that it may have been in Europe first.

 

No indication at all that the Omicron variant began in China. It almost certainly did not.

[Neeranam]

22 minutes ago, Isaanlife said:

I wonder how many passengers got on a plane with a negative test, got this expensive PCR test in Thailand at the airport and ended up in expensive quarantine?

 

You have to reason if Thailand is going to charge $130 for this test, what else would they do for money? There must be many Thai's that could not afford this test?

 

The kicker is 50,000 thb later, being in their hotel seems to automatically cure you to a positive????????

 

Too risky.

 

 

Are you suggesting that the Thai government is giving false positives for money?

[Guest Isaanlife]

1 minute ago, Neeranam said:

Are you suggesting that the Thai government is giving false positives for money?

 3 vaccines, negative text 24 hours before flight, fly 5 hours to Bangkok, no fever or symptoms what so ever, test positive at the airport.

 

Make your own conclusions.

[Willy Wombat]

A little bit from Oz

https://apple.news/AMD5agBHmTji5KbfYUodclw

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Came thru Suvarnabhumi last night on a return from a domestic travel trip. Never seen it so dead as last night about 7:30 p.m., both on the arrivals and departures levels.

 

Went down to the outbound taxi queue area on the ground floor, and literally there was not a single person waiting in the queue when we arrived there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Sheryl]

57 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

How many of these cases involve people actually feeling sick, how many need a hospital visit, how many need to go to intensive care?

 

Most of the local cases at least were detected because they felt ill, so did many of the delayed identifications in foreigners (i.e. after discharge form Test & Go). I suspect more than half had some sort of symptoms but the percent of detected cases which are symptomatic is not an indication of the percent of infections that are symptomatic. Naturally those who feel ill are more likely to end up diagnosed. Those who feel fine will slip through the net unless they have just arrived from, or are preparing to go,  abroad.

 

"Need a hospital visit" is open to interpretation (and I suspect you did not mean visit but rather admission). Thailand tends to hospitalize people who would not meet criteria for hospital; admission elsewhere and at the moment they are hospitalizing everyone with Omicron (everyone they find, that is). However there are certainly some cases who truly need admission on purely medical grounds (and equally surely, they are a minority). You can read description of one such  case in the 5th post here https://aseannow.com/topic/1244924-medical-sciences-department-reports-total-of-739-omicron-cases-in-thailand/.  In the UK, which has a rational hospital admission policy, about 20% of diagnoses Omicron cases are being hospitalized (compared to 50% for Delta -- but again the denominator is diagnosed cases nto all infections, so skewed towards the symptomatic).

 

To date I have not seen any reported deaths from Omicron in Thailand and would hardly expect it with less than 1,000 cases so far identified.

 

However the issue for Thailand is not that there are  less than 1,000 confirmed cases now. The issue is what lies ahead. From what is known of this virus I would be surprised if it does not top 10,000 within a week and keep going up from there. At which point there will be some deaths, though proportionately much less than in prior wave.

 

As elsewhere, the key issue is not the absolute number of deaths from the variant but rather the effect on the health system of a huge number of cases occurring within a very short time - which can lead to many more deaths from other causes.  The effect on the health system in turn depends not just in total number but on timeframe - the same number of cases more gradually spread out can be absorbed but coming in a massive abrupt wave is very disruptive. (Hence the idea of "flattening the curve". It does not really need to be flattened - it can't be - but it does need to be spread out more so that the spikes at any point in time are not as high).

 

In Thailand the point of serious impairment of health services will come much sooner than necessary if they do not seriously revise practices regarding who is hospitalized.

 

And in all countries -- especially those with national health systems - there is a need to critically re-evaluate the suspensions of things like elective surgeries/procedures and treatments.  Such suspensions went on for way too long last time around and we know now that we are in for the long haul i.e. this is not a momentary thing. Cancelling elective surgeries & procedures for a week is one thing, doing so for months is quite another.

 

 

[Sheryl]

28 minutes ago, Isaanlife said:

 3 vaccines, negative text 24 hours before flight, fly 5 hours to Bangkok, no fever or symptoms what so ever, test positive at the airport.

 

Make your own conclusions.

 

Very, very few people have tested positive on arrival - something like 0.1 - 0.3 percent (pre-Omicron). Nothing at all improbable about that and certainly not consistent with a nefarious scheme.

[eastlight]

22 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Let us be honest about this. It is Prayuth and Anutin, and their extreme cowardice that has decimated any hope of survival, within the tourism industry. It is a dead industry. This is likely the final nail in the coffin. 

 

Expect very high sustained unemployment for years to come. 

Thanks for your continuing comments - A Happy New Year to you.

[PoorSucker]

On 12/29/2021 at 11:39 AM, Cherrytreeview said:

UK and France 100K - 150K cases per day Thailand 2500 cases 

Think Thailand will have same numbers as soon as it starts snowing 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just an odds and ends note on the perils, big and small, of domestic travel in Thailand right now.

 

Big - at the long-established, large hotel we stayed in Hua Hin this past week, out of an abundance of caution, I called the day before our arrival to double check just what exact documents they would want to see upon check-in. I was a bit worried they might mistakenly class me as some kind of international incoming tourist.

 

They didn't, but they still had a big surprise nonetheless. Although there is no government policy to do this that I'm aware of, the hotel where we stayed required all incoming guests -- farang and Thai -- to show proof of COVID vaccination -- though there was absolutely no mention of this anywhere in the advance reservation process via Agoda.

 

At first, I thought it might just apply to me. But no, they wanted the same proof for my Thai wife as well. Fortunately, both of us had previously been doubled vaxed by the government here, so we didn't get caught out.

 

And it wasn't just us in some kind of oddball deal. As we were waiting to check out yesterday, I caught the front desk staff making the same vaccination proof demand of other couples who were trying to check in.

 

Earlier during our stay, I was checking with a couple other hotels in HH where we might want to stay on some future visit, and none of them said they had that same kind of vaccination requirement for guests.  But still, in today's times, for a domestic tourist, it probably pays to be on the safe side and check ahead of time to be safe.

 

Small -- despite the government and tourist industry promises of lots of tourists coming, the hotel where we stayed -- and several others we checked with -- had cancelled their normal buffet breakfasts that can be part of the room rate, and instead replaced the buffets with paltry single set plate meals, due to a lack of guests.

 

In our case, our hotel gave us a choice of Asian (a bowl of rice soup) or Western (2 eggs, 2 slices toast and 2 sausages), along with coffee/tea and juice.)  Not exactly what we were expecting, and had we known in advance, never would have booked the room category that included "breakfast" for an extra charge.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[NanaSomchai]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Came thru Suvarnabhumi last night on a return from a domestic travel trip. Never seen it so dead as last night about 7:30 p.m., both on the arrivals and departures levels.

 

Went down to the outbound taxi queue area on the ground floor, and literally there was not a single person waiting in the queue when we arrived there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Don't Put All your Eggs in One Basket" comes to mind.

 

This is what happens when you fail to develop other activities/sectors in your Kingdom and you chose the rely on one only: Prostituti*cough* Tourism *cough*.

 

And the worst part of it all? They have learnt absolutely NOTHING from this lesson. Thai logic style.

[stephenterry]

22 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Did you not read what I said, half the classes had it, the cat is out of the bag, do you actually think holding the kids back would stop the spread, if so you could be classed as someone with delusional grandeur.

 

This is what you wrote: we just stay away from people in hope of not spreading whatever it is that we have.

 

Which isn't a lot of help is it, if your kids are not?

 

In any event, you might as well join the cats - we are all likely to catch it soon, hopefully with no serious effects, and then get on with our lives, instead of segregating ourselves from the rest of the world..   

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Not only isn't it but you need to be dropped on your head at some point, drunk, or stricken by dementia to see otherwise.  All experts agree this is a total joke so far.  It's a cold.

And before you start calling me an antivaxxer (whoever), triple vaccinated and am vaccinated against everything you can think of before COVID.  

Yes, I hope and believe so too, but do not wish to use the word 'cold' yet, it is killing some. So much so, I think to avoid Pattaya for a while, as numbers and precautions there concern me..... got an elderly visitor coming and should err on the side of caution.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The wife and I hadn't gone away from home in BKK for any travel since late 2019, shortly before COVID began... So we were getting a bit stir crazy...

 

We made plans for our short year-end HH trip before Omicron really became a thing, and kept our plans despite its recent emergence. I was glad to be able to do a quick get-away now, for I fear the case numbers and related grief is only likely to get worse here in TH in the weeks and months ahead.

 

We were both fully vaxed, wore good quality N95 masks throughout our trip except when in our room or out eating, stayed away from indoor settings as much as possible, and when we were eating, kept a good distance away from others as much a possible.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[BusyB]

11 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Not quite sure what your point is here. Are you saying you think airline pilots should be tested for all Coronavirus illnesses, including colds? 

I was referring to SARS CoV 2, although I also wouldn't want a pilot with a cold to be flying my plane either ... think about it ...

Or driving a train, or a 40 tonne truck, or any other number of infrastructure tasks ... as a supervisor I told people to stay at home with colds - before they infect others at work as well.

And I have never worked with a cold or flu. Much less Covid-19.

But maybe it doesn't worry you. 

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Can you link to that? This is a report from figures published by the the UK Health Agency at 1am today Thai time.

 

"The last daily #OmicronVariant overview will be reported on Friday 31 December. As data has shown that Omicron cases now constitute more than 90% of all community COVID-19 cases in England, our daily dashboard will provide the most updated info on COVID-19 case figures."

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

[4MyEgo]

18 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

This is what you wrote: we just stay away from people in hope of not spreading whatever it is that we have.

 

Which isn't a lot of help is it, if your kids are not?

 

In any event, you might as well join the cats - we are all likely to catch it soon, hopefully with no serious effects, and then get on with our lives, instead of segregating ourselves from the rest of the world..   

Why should the kids stay home, the kids are the ones that brought whatever it is/was to us at home from the school and they go back to school where they join everyone else that has it, not forgetting there would also be herd immunity there, or do you not understand what herd immunity is or how it forms.

 

Now if the kids were really sick, sure they could stay home, but as these are mild symptoms, also given the fact the weather has been cold of late, we all move forward and kids need to build their immune systems, so getting sick is part of evolution and their immune systems building up and fighting viruses. 

 

What your saying in essence is that we should go out and spread the love, is that what you would do, well that is up to you, personally I wouldn't want anyone coughing on me if they were sick, if and when I get it, if I haven't already had it yet, let it come, in the meantime, we won't go looking for it or spreading it to others, like the elderly or immunocompromised, that would just be selfish, so wait until whatever it is, passes.

 

As for the kids, they go and come in our car, no bus or minivan where it would spread like wildfire so when they come home, and the virus stays with us, and then they go back to school where others would be infected.

 

Viruses are known to start spreading from schools, then they bring it home which has been normal practise since I had dippers, so once we get sick, why we would go out to infect others ?

 

You don't make any sense.

 

[bradiston]

15 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

20% of 10,000 is 2,000

[BadSpottedDog]

On 12/29/2021 at 11:15 AM, Thaiwrath said:

Happy New Fear ?

I think the full quote is, "Merry Crisis & A Happy New Fear". You're welcome ????

[kiwikeith]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Can you link to that? This is a report from figures published by the the UK Health Agency at 1am today Thai time.

 

"The last daily #OmicronVariant overview will be reported on Friday 31 December. As data has shown that Omicron cases now constitute more than 90% of all community COVID-19 cases in England, our daily dashboard will provide the most updated info on COVID-19 case figures."

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

[kiwikeith]

Just now, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

If you want to search goggle for this , for yourself, the data is posted on Dr John Campbells video '' Most  Omicron hospitalisations incidental'' all the links are in the presentation( far to much info to put up here) but all the links are there if you want to look for yourself.

[Bkk Brian]

28 minutes ago, kiwikeith said:

okay if you have 10,000 in hospital (UK figures) and out of that figure 20% were actually admitted for omicron, thats 500 patients, the rest were admitted for other things like broken legs ect, and discovered to have omicron on admission, as they test all people admitted to hospital, the figures are published daily and your figure is close to what I read this morning, hospital numbers will rise due to the rate of spread, but so far the hospitals are not being overloaded and oxygen use is way down, also average hospital stay is down to 3 /5 days. I will look for the paper and post it . They also reported a staffing issues as nurses etc. are getting Omicron but the good news is they are not off for long.

That figure of 10,000 was for England only so missing a large chunk from Scotland, NI and Wales. 

 

The estimate of incidental cases of admissions being due to other reasons of 80% as you claim is not the same as a more reliable source ie Chris Hopson CEO of the National Health Service trusts and Providers who puts it at 30%.

 

And Dr Julian Tang, a professor of respiratory sciences at the University of Leicester, said that the proportion of people in hospital with Covid, rather than because of it, will vary a lot between different hospitals depending on factors including the local incidence of Covid. NHS data reveals the situation varies by region, with about 22% of Covid patients in hospital on 21 December primarily being treated for another issue in the south-west, compared with 39% in the Midlands.

 

In England, 70% of hospital patients with Covid are there primarily because of the virus

 

I agree time spent in hospital is now much shorter however and ICU and oxygen requirements do not seem to be rising which is fantastic news.

 

Watching a youtube channel from an ex nurse and now non medical DR who has no epidemiologist qualifications, who spends much of his time patting himself on the back for past predictions and cherry picking data that suits those predictions is not my idea of a good source for covid, particularly when at the end of a video he says if I'm wrong then I will tell you in a future vid! With 2 million subscribers I'm sure those opening credit adverts are making him a nice profit.

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, Muhendis said:

Why do you say that?

The obvious stuff. 39 million arrivals was getting to be a bit much. Although the lower numbers will mean higher unemployment for those associated with the industry for years to come, it means easier travel for most of us (post covid), as well as lower prices, and lighter, more pleasant crowds.