Can Thailand really afford to stop exporting to Russia?

[Rimmer]

A slur has been removed

[John Drake]

20 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Personally I don't know what the Stick  or Carrot the US will use , if any, and as such impossible to answer the OP question.  

Thailand runs a huge trade surplus with the US. Thailand meanwhile runs an almost as huge trade deficit with China. It also runs a sizable trade deficit with Russia. Plenty of US leverage there.

[Artisi]

On 2/28/2022 at 8:39 AM, worgeordie said:

Another source of tourists lost , they will now have to

try and lure Saudis' ,and TAT ever hopeful are expecting

a Million to arrive soon ........hopefully.

regards worgeordie 

Only a million, that's pretty low expectations for TAT, would have thought at least 5m initially with ongoing  monthly increases - as per usual crystal ball gazing. 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, John Drake said:

Thailand runs a huge trade surplus with the US. Thailand meanwhile runs an almost as huge trade deficit with China. It also runs a sizable trade deficit with Russia. Plenty of US leverage there.

What the value of Thailand's trade with Russia doesn't take account of is tourism. I found this figure for 2015

Russians tourists spent almost $2 billion in Thailand in 2015
Although last year Russian tourism has followed the rouble fall with a 45% plunge from 1,606,000 to 884,085, Russia ranks second after the UK among European countries’ nationals spending their vacations in Thailand.

https://www.thailand-business-news.com/tourism/52310-russians-tourists-spent-almost-2-billion-thailand-2015

 

For bookkeeping purposes economists consider tourism to be a kind of export since, in the case of Thailand, currency is flowing into Thailand from abroad. It's just that in the case of tourists, the spenders accompany their cash.

Of course, going forwards, prospects for Russian tourism look a lot grimmer than they did even in 2015.

Edited March 1, 2022 by placeholder

[ROGER DUNN]

They said on the News yesterday that the Ruble is worth 1 cent !

Not Worth doing Buisiness with them 

[Bezdomny]

On 2/28/2022 at 8:29 AM, hotandsticky said:

 

 

It will be brilliant!.......bring it on.

Selfish thinking.

[Adumbration]

13 hours ago, it is what it is said:

if the current sanctions, never mind any increase in sanctions which is very likely, the russian economy will be in tatters by next winter.

No it won't.

[Thunglom]

8 hours ago, sanuk711 said:

I understand the figure Thunglom--- my point is Thailand doesn't own them. Mexico is now the #3 global leader in automotive manufacturing. Sends cars all over the world---but it doesn't own all the Fords/Chevrolet/Honda's that it exports does it?

Just like Thailand --the profit will go back to Japan/China/USA.

 

Thailand gets a the spin off---some smaller industries making parts /use their rubber for the tires/Jobs etc.

One Day Thailand may make their own car---Australia did when there was only 7 million people living there.

Ownership is misleading - it's control - Thailand has majority ownership in the brands and total ownership of the supplier - if the manage decide to stop exporting to Russia that can

[Thunglom]

8 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Yes, they can, central bank to central bank, for instance.  How about cash?   Is USD no longer legal tender?  Remember when OBama sent pallets groaning with USD cash to Iran?

Cash/dollars from Russia will not be accepted.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Thunglom

[friendofthai]

14 hours ago, jollyhangmon said:

And if NOT you're happy to help 'return' Taiwan ... interesting relationship, whose the biatch of whom here exactly ...?

Sure. Chinese friends need a lot of warships for the operation of repatriating Taiwan. And Russia needs to overcome sanctions. So, we can help each other.

Edited March 1, 2022 by friendofthai

[jollyhangmon]

35 minutes ago, friendofthai said:

Sure. Chinese friends need a lot of warships for the operation of repatriating Taiwan. And Russia needs to overcome sanctions. So, we can help each other.

 

Yeah? Whatever, bring it on, the both of you in teamwork? Hilarious.
Can't wait to see another brilliantly executed manoeuvre like the (current) invasion of Ukraine, big fan here!
Just f'n kidding of course, I hear your Führer is not that amused, had planned 2 days for that? Well, tough teats then ...

 

Another important thing, just heard today is the day of the pig (whatever tf that means) so please make sure to extend my best wishes to tovarich Vlad, in exactly that regard!

 

[friendofthai]

15 minutes ago, jollyhangmon said:

Just f'n kidding of course, I hear your Führer is not that amused, had planned 2 days for that? Well, tough teats then ...

No. Originally, in December 2021, our president wanted to talk directly to the USA. But the leader of the Communist Party G. Zyuganov criticized this initiative. In the Russian parliament he told that we should make a party in Ukraine instead of operation 'Nevada'. So it was decided to visit Ukraine first. The main reason for this is the opinion of the Russian society. Russian people were very offended after the burning of pro-Russian activists in Odessa on May 2, 2014. So society wants a military tribunal for this. The President decided to please them.

Edited March 1, 2022 by friendofthai

[friendofthai]

8 hours ago, jollyhangmon said:

had planned 2 days for that?

Vlad needs war to get rid of some annoying western things like 'free press' or 'democracy'. War gives him unlimited power to do everything he want. Yesterday he closed the most influental opposition media Echo of Moscow and Dozhd. He needs about 1 year to wash out everything which smells like the West. So I think the war will not stop for a year or so.

[jollyhangmon]

 

... 555, oh faq, my bad, indeed looks like I did feed shilly trolleene here ... but keep up your fictional schtick by all means brwah, after all it's kinda mildly entertaining ... 

 

[tgw]

9 hours ago, friendofthai said:

No. Originally, in December 2021, our president wanted to talk directly to the USA. But the leader of the Communist Party G. Zyuganov criticized this initiative. In the Russian parliament he told that we should make a party in Ukraine instead of operation 'Nevada'. So it was decided to visit Ukraine first. The main reason for this is the opinion of the Russian society. Russian people were very offended after the burning of pro-Russian activists in Odessa on May 2, 2014. So society wants a military tribunal for this. The President decided to please them.

for who wants to read details:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Odessa_clashes

 

 

[Hawaiian]

On 2/28/2022 at 12:11 AM, Mises said:

Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves of $635bn, the fifth highest in the world and rising. It has a national debt of 18pc of GDP, the sixth lowest in the world, and falling.

 

The commodity boom is adding an extra $10bn a month to Kremlin coffers from oil and gas. It is being squirrelled away in the National Wellbeing Fund.

 

The Kremlin could sever all gas flows to Europe – 41pc of the EU’s supply – for two years or more without running into serious financial buffers.

 

The harsh truth was summed up by Russia’s ambassador to Sweden. “Excuse my language, but we couldn’t give a <deleted> about western sanctions,” he told the Aftonbladet newspaper.

 

But right now China has Russia’s back against the West, and this renders it impossible to enforce meaningful sanctions.

 

 

 

 

 

China has it's own financial problems and cannot carry Russia for any length of time.  If sanctions are not very effective, why was Putin so upset that he mentioned them as one of the reasons for his veiled nuclear threat.  The SWIFT sanctions are only partial.  Cutting Russia off completely from SWIFT will have a devastating effect and Putin knows this.  Russia's foreign exchange reserves can last only so long and then what?  The rouble's fall is not over and it may take Putin down with it.

[Hawaiian]

On 2/28/2022 at 7:01 AM, Thunglom said:

they have loads, they just can't use them anymore

That's right.  The sanctions have frozen one half  to two thirds of their foreign currency reserves, which will be drained faster than expected.

[Thunglom]

Can they afford to?. or can they afford NOT to?

[Adumbration]

5 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

  The rouble's fall is not over and it may take Putin down with it.

No it won't.

[anandra]

On 2/28/2022 at 7:23 AM, RichardColeman said:

I would imagine the unanswered questions would be 

 

1. How will they pay ? 

2. Will they want Thai products if the rouble hits rock bottom and the Teflon baht rises madly ?

Thats the point, soon 1 usd will be 1 kilo of russian rubles, no matter whether Thailand wants or not.

[Artisi]

The headline is meaningless - irrespective of what Thailand might want or dream about, how can they ship anything to Russia, seeing as how there is no access for goods into or out of Russia at the moment. 

[daejung]

About russian tourists ? Will they be allowed to travel and spend money abroad ?

[daejung]

On 2/28/2022 at 9:42 AM, spidermike007 said:

what would be 1st world about the place?

You could add pollution to the list

[daejung]

On 2/28/2022 at 11:11 AM, Mises said:

Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves of $635bn, the fifth highest in the world and rising.

Half of these reserves are now blocked

[jacko45k]

5 hours ago, daejung said:

About russian tourists ? Will they be allowed to travel and spend money abroad ?

At the moment there is a hefty surcharge on buying foreign exchange in Russia and people have to prove they will be returning... that was as I knew yesterday, but things change fast there. Carrier and overfly restrictions also make it difficult. 

[Isaan sailor]

Sanctions hurt Russian people of course. If they work, though—they can bring an end to the Russian invasion.  And give CCP pause on their invasion plans as well.