Despite little direct trade, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could spell trouble for Thailand’s vulnerable economy

[webfact]

 

By Erich Parpart

 

A drop in Russian tourists, rising commodity prices, and the possibility of recession in Europe have added risks to the Thai economy following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts said this week.

 

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potent sanctions the West has imposed on Russia will likely undercut global growth, increase inflation and disrupt supply chains,” according to Maybank Investment Banking Group Research’s latest report.

 

“ASEAN will not be spared from the global fallout, despite the small direct trade linkage with Russia and Ukraine,” they said.

 

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Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/38364/despite-little-direct-trade-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-could-spell-trouble-for-thailands-vulnerable-economy/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-03-10

 

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[Skeptic7]

The Ruble is down almost 50% against THB and most other currencies this year. The average "F-Russian" ain't gonna be traveling anywhere anytime soon. ????

[Isaan sailor]

Thai Baht swings wildly.  Not only Russians get hurt.  Safe to say tourism will suffer—again.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“ASEAN will not be spared from the global fallout, despite the small direct trade linkage with Russia and Ukraine,” they said.

It will have a minimal affect on Thailand, a few less tourists from Russia and maybe a couple of baht on oil.

Thailands government needs to start building some home grown employment opportunities and stop being so reliant on investment from overseas by way of tourism or commerce.

 

[tomyami]

looks like a recession with hyper inflation for the first world.

That new level of barbarism bombing a children's hospital, today all indications WH is very nervous chemical attack on the way its the Syrian playbook putin has brought to Ukraine and europe,

After china's xi's pando, we are all in for another rough year let hope we survive it.

buy gold.

[Henryford]

36 minutes ago, Skeptic7 said:

The Ruble is down almost 50% against THB and most other currencies this year. The average "F-Russian" ain't gonna be traveling anywhere anytime soon. ????

Looking at XE it seems to be down 80% in the last month 2.28 to 4.11.

[ezzra]

Don't care about Russian tourists, care about the cost of fuel that the scarcity of it will push price up across the board everywhere and for everyday items we all use and consume...

[blazes]

Agree with Ezzra above.

 

Besides oil and natural gas, Russia exports lots of food crops and industrial metals (like aluminium, titanium, palladium, platinum, nickel, cobalt and copper).

It's not difficult to see the effect that the scarcity of these metals will have on all the finished goods we buy without a second thought as to their origin.

 

Russia also produces a lot of the West's fertiliser needs, such as nitrogen and phosphate.

Any break in this supply chain will result in either higher prices or empty shelves at the consumer end.

 

One way or another, the sanctions are likely to backfire on Western economies (not to mention the Thai economy) in ways that can only be guessed at this week. 

[Andycoops]

No doubt the Muppet Too will now congratulate the Russians as his feeble attempt to remain neutral is already backfiring, with more suffering for ordinary citizens on the horizon.

[Eric Loh]

The punishing sanctions by the united western allies and some in Asia Pacific on Russia will no doubt affected global economy. Short of direct military conflict with Russia amid its muderous invasion of Ukraine, sanctions are the best options. I am sure Russia expected the measures but they didn't anticipate so much sanctions taken so swiftly. Even historically neutral countries like Switzerland , Finland and even Singapore have join sanctions efforts. These sanctions will cripple Russia for years and will deeply affect the regular folks and create unrests and trouble for Putin ????. 

[Tropposurfer]

While any tourists not returning to LOS is a bad look it won't break the economy given years of 'the situation' and its devastating impacts ( the economy is already under multiple strains anyway and a certain percentage [the major proportion not being Russian] of one nationality not coming here wont be a deal breaker, given these other wide reaching strains.

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

It will have a minimal affect on Thailand, a few less tourists from Russia and maybe a couple of baht on oil.

Thailands government needs to start building some home grown employment opportunities and stop being so reliant on investment from overseas by way of tourism or commerce.

 

I would beg to differ on your " minimal effect on Thailand " statement.

The effects are not going to be felt through a small number of " Tourists "

The effects are going to be felt in the Car Plants Etc where Russian metals are used

Metals such as Palladium in Cat Converters

Nickel for all Stainless Steel

Etc Etc Etc

Phosphates and Potash Etc for the use in Fertilizers Etc

These are the things that will hit not just Thailand, but every Nation on the Planet

People seem to forget that Russia is one of the largest Commodity suppliers on Earth, and not just for Oil and Gas.

 

[KhunLA]

Russia imports more than a few vehicles from Thailand.  That will hurt, if ruble value is now halved, so export to Russians twice as much if applied across the board.

 

Imports from RU should be cheaper, so don't understand the oil issue, unless people stop importing / buying, which hasn't happened.  

 

All, price increases, appear to be price gouging, for NO practical reason ... AGAIN ... IMHO, and no surprises there.  Greed rules, and any news-blip seems to be used for more profits.  Why they control the news & the Sheeple.

 

"Everything is going to cost more"

"OK" ... baa baa

 

[Henryford]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

It will have a minimal affect on Thailand, a few less tourists from Russia and maybe a couple of baht on oil.

Thailands government needs to start building some home grown employment opportunities and stop being so reliant on investment from overseas by way of tourism or commerce.

 

Really, 1.5 million Russian and Ukranian tourists visited Thailand in 2019. I doubt many will be coming in 2022/23. With no Chinese either and probably fewer Europeans (struggling with inflation) looks like the tourist industry won't recover anytime soon.

[Isaan sailor]

Best way to combat global inflation and lack of tourists—sink the Baht 50% or more.  Trust me—more would come and more would spend.

[RafPinto]

Oh TAT

 

 

What are you coming up with now?

 

Scheinese bubble: gone

Indian bubble: gone

Trillionaires: gone

Billionaires: gone

Ruskys: gone

 

Wait: the millions of indian billionaires are all sitting on their luggages to fly to Thailand: Dream about that one.

 

High Baht

High inflation

High oil prices

 

People still trying to recover from the Scheinese present

Now the Rusky present

 

Forget about all forecasts. You can be happy if by end of 2022, 1Million have visited Thailand and probably most of them Farangs coming back to family of job.

[chilly07]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

The punishing sanctions by the united western allies and some in Asia Pacific on Russia will no doubt affected global economy. Short of direct military conflict with Russia amid its muderous invasion of Ukraine, sanctions are the best options. I am sure Russia expected the measures but they didn't anticipate so much sanctions taken so swiftly. Even historically neutral countries like Switzerland , Finland and even Singapore have join sanctions efforts. These sanctions will cripple Russia for years and will deeply affect the regular folks and create unrests and trouble for Putin ????. 

Whilst Putin controls the media and internet and uses the riot police on disent their is zero chance of a popular uprising. Russian Tourists will at least be getting real news but their aren't enough of them to get Putin out. UK can't even get rid of Bozo with full media exposure so we are stuck with Mad Vlad for the foreseeable. Hope I am wrong!

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, chilly07 said:

Whilst Putin controls the media and internet and uses the riot police on disent their is zero chance of a popular uprising. Russian Tourists will at least be getting real news but their aren't enough of them to get Putin out. UK can't even get rid of Bozo with full media exposure so we are stuck with Mad Vlad for the foreseeable. Hope I am wrong!

Dominion Voting Systems would solve that, you can appoint anyone of your choosing as leader ????

[ivor bigun]

6 hours ago, hotchilli said:

It will have a minimal affect on Thailand, a few less tourists from Russia and maybe a couple of baht on oil.

Thailands government needs to start building some home grown employment opportunities and stop being so reliant on investment from overseas by way of tourism or commerce.

 

couple of baht on oil? gasohol 95 is now 40baht a litre , i have never ever known it this price ,

[KhunLA]

14 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

couple of baht on oil? gasohol 95 is now 40baht a litre , i have never ever known it this price ,

Yea, highest I remember 91 being at was 36 ish.  This is silly, and no reason for it ... IMHO

[hotchilli]

36 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

couple of baht on oil? gasohol 95 is now 40baht a litre , i have never ever known it this price ,

My meaning was the government will try to keep it low at the pumps, they have already said they will consider dropping the tax rate for the next 6 months.

I appreciate it may have risen recently, but that's the stations gouging, new oil deliveries at new prices haven't arrived in Thailand yet.

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, Henryford said:

Really, 1.5 million Russian and Ukranian tourists visited Thailand in 2019. I doubt many will be coming in 2022/23. With no Chinese either and probably fewer Europeans (struggling with inflation) looks like the tourist industry won't recover anytime soon.

As I said, the government needs to remodel it's domestic commerce to aid recovery and unemployment.

They can't rely on tourism and international investment to bail them out all the time.

[ivor bigun]

lets face it this year will see zero Russians ,and as prices rise worldwide westerners will not be able to afford to come ,was talking to my Daughter yesterday ,and she reckons to fill their oil tank for central heating it is now 950 pounds ,lucky they have a wood burning heater ,but even the wood has gone up ,mind you last time i was over her husband and me scoured the woods and brought back loads free.

[koratkarlos]

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Dominion Voting Systems would solve that, you can appoint anyone of your choosing as leader 

I  hope you are not serious here.   Time to move on.