Banks downgraded as the Thai economy faces a liquidity crisis caused by war and tourism barriers

[lapamita]

3 hours ago, thaibook said:

IMO the Euro will be badly affected by EU member states having to pay for gas in Roubles but the USD will rise, not affected by the gas and seen as a safe haven.  Only currency which can be printed without inflationary effect.

 to pay in roubles, is  bcs usa controls the swift system, and no usd transfers alloud for russia,so logely if the west block usd savings and the swiftsytem  from russia , the only consequence can be that its payed in currency not affected. i always wonder who controls more ......

The Gas bil in europe is very minor compare to all transactions. this will not effect the euro currency anyway.

In war times regular usd trend higher, not due to value,  its  due to safety. But from point of purchasing power and depts , the euro is far undervalued compare to usd

Usd no inflationary effect hmmm ...wonder wonder, you have same inflation in the usa. fuel price rise their too , bcs world commodity prices are relevant, even us producing a lot of oil and gas

 

All blame now russia for the inflation, but the new megacycle is already in place since mid 2020 due to covid, massiv depts,massiv moneypriting  inline with 0% intrest policy , the blame , the truth is ,its the fault of western central banks since 2008 ..who to blame

 

by the way when talking about thaibanks , they not weaker than thier counterparts in the west , they even have better balance sheets , but their smaller and more voluntary compare to corrupted system relevant banks in the west, with their blown up balance sheets

Edited March 25, 2022 by lapamita

[lapamita]

36 minutes ago, timendres said:

Tell that to the US citizens being told inflation is running above 7%, but seeing inflation north of 12% in real prices.

thanks to the hedonic  methods in measeuring Gdp and inflation in the US  ( and later adopted by anglosaxony countrys,  and today nearly all western states ) , introduced by alan greenspan end of the 90s

 

followed by a complete mass in the fincial system  with massiv moneysupply and depts ( compare to gdp) and  low intrestrates

Edited March 25, 2022 by lapamita

[WEBBYB808]

3 hours ago, david555 said:

good luck....! For that to happen ....

It's been happening  since 2016 when it reached 36 thb to the USD and they quickly manipulated it that the USD was devalued,  So, for the last two years, the economy  has supposedly  been hurting, however the THB has maintained  its pre Covid strength, (manipulation) on and off the International currency watch list.  They will continue to manipulate  even if the USD does what it's predicted,  gain in strenth, welcome  to S.E. Asia.  I have lived in the village  and I seen the power of 20thb, to know thats their main exchange of tender to hands.  I also see the counterfeit  Chinese goods that they buy in bulk only to have to replace soon after purchase,  and I see the fruits and vegetables coming from China that they pay so little for, and graft to one another.  Tourist areas, you over pay and are willfully  and accordingly extorted.   Its just one big graft and scam.  They know that there is no real power or circumstances that hold them accountable even the IMF can only scold them.

[Cake Monster]

8 hours ago, blazes said:

Could be 1998 all over again. 

There certainly seems to be signs that all is not well.

The Household Debt situation seems to be totally out of control.

Some Folk who rent Apartments from my Missus are having less O/T since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which is obviously affecting then Export Market especial Vehicles.

There seems to be a rippling effect from the Chinese Slowdown and property crisis also.

All these things along with rampant Inflation, are turning Thailand into a seething pit of Debt.

And on top of all this , The BOT, are banning the use of Crypto Currencies for services and goods from April ( I think ), which is a sure sign they need Liquidity in Baht right now.

99 Baht down, and you are able to buy a House now in Thailand ! Bloody Insane.

 

 

[Dont confuse me]

Is this country ever going to wake up and accept that it relies a lot on tourism and make the process not only for short term but long term residents easier? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[new2here]

9 hours ago, welshguy said:

"

S&P downgraded ratings of Siam Commercial Bank and Kasikorn Bank, from BBB+ to BBB, and Krungthai Bank and TMB Thanachart Bank, from BBB to BBB-."

 

I copied and pasted this from another thread on here....Dont know if its what youre looking for?

If i recall the BBB still keeps SCB at investment grade… barely… but BBB- is recall is not— one “notch” below minimum for IG classification.

For me, I don’t see this as having a huge impact on the banks “smaller” retail depositors (those whose net holdings are below the national bank insurance fund levels) or it’s day-to-day operations. 

 

but i do think it sends a larger signal that there are systemic economic problems and that those problems have put increased pressure on the banks longer term outlook.  

 

What would be interesting to see is if any of the newly downgraded banks were to float new long term bonds, how many more BPs (basis points) would they have to offer up in order for the offering to be successful 

[sambum]

11 hours ago, whereyougo said:

Haha never. More likely it will take off north again

So how come the exchange rate for Baht to the British Pound has been going DOWN steadily over the past week after climbing steadily since the beginning of March? (I know NOTHING about Finances, Stocks & Shares etc  - I just look at the graph!)

[ThaiFelix]

6 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Thai economic theory.......it must be taught in schools.......if you have fewer customers you must increase the price to make up for the lower numbers.......cannot fault that logic.

And that is not a joke!

[Lacessit]

5 hours ago, murraynz said:

I now transfer my Nz pension and other funds,  through wise. That way, I only do transfers when the rates are quite high, like yesterday.. 

Are you saying you can predict when the rate is high?

How much in fees/commission does wise charge you on a transfer, and how far below the prevailing cross-rate do you get in baht when the money lands in a Thai bank?

[ThaiFelix]

1 hour ago, Dont confuse me said:

Is this country ever going to wake up and accept that it relies a lot on tourism and make the process not only for short term but long term residents easier? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its all about losing face.  They would never admit they cant manage without non Thais.  Have a look around, most of the businesses, big and small, now and forever, are run by non Thais as is most of SE Asia.  The closest they have ever got to it is the laws reserving the bulk of jobs to Thais because they know they wouldnt be able to compete in an open job market.

[metisdead]

A troll post using a profane acronym has been removed.

[ukrules]

13 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s energy-dependent economy and the loss of Russian tourists as significant downsides.

I'm a little confused as to why the Russians aren't still coming.

 

I consulted the map, they can fly to Thailand without going anywhere near the western world.

 

Flightradar shows plenty of flights in the air over Russia.

 

So why aren't they coming?

 

I can understand why Ukraine has issues with flights landing in a potential warzone but not Russian flights.

 

Also contrary to what a lot of people seem to think all of Russia has not been sanctioned, they are targeted.

 

I fail to see how Thai or any other airline can't simply take aff and fly to and from Thailand / Russia exactly the same as before.

[Isaan sailor]

6 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Are you saying you can predict when the rate is high?

How much in fees/commission does wise charge you on a transfer, and how far below the prevailing cross-rate do you get in baht when the money lands in a Thai bank?

From my experience with Wise, they charge about 1% or just a bit more on transfers.  Of course, the higher the amount, the lower the fees.

Yesterday, things didn’t go so well for me at Wise.  I ordered Baht when the USD rate hit 33.68.  It choked and locked up on me.  Now Wise wants to continue the sale—at a lower rate, USD @ 33.54.  I cancelled my order, on principle.

[Liverpool Lou]

3 hours ago, Enoon said:

It may ask that Thailand takes roubles for whatever Thailand exports to Russia.

 

I am not even an amateur economist,

"It may ask that Thailand takes roubles [sic] ... I am not even an amateur economist "

No kidding?

Edited March 25, 2022 by Liverpool Lou

[spidermike007]

All bets are off, at this point. The economy is decimated on so many fronts. They keep lying about exports going up, they keep lying about unemployment, they keep lying about economic growth. They cannot lie about tourism being dead. 

 

A note to the big three failed leaders, Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat. You failed miserable, and now the nation knows the benefits of appointments based on merit, and the hazards of appointments based on cronyism, and inexperience. You guys will keep using Covid as a convenient excuse, but we all know it is alot of nonsense. Sure, Covid is a factor. But the way you guys approached it, the severe incompetence you brought to the table, the astonishing failure of your vaccination program, the highly selective nature of the economic shutdowns, the favoritism toward your rich cronies, and the sadism towards the common man, in addition to the extreme timidity you guys are showing with regard to re-opening to tourism, are far larger factors. You have failed miserably. Just admit it, and be men for a change. Resign now. 

And talk to us about the sacrifices you fools are willing to make, to get tourism back. It is not magic. You will not open your doors and have millions pouring in again. Get that? When you kick an animal that is already ill enough times, it eventually dies. Your industry is dying. You have sabotaged it to no end. And this started long before Covid, so stop with the excuses. Real men take responsibility for their mistakes. Punks, juveniles, and men with undeveloped emotional natures refuse to take responsibility for anything, and it makes them all look like fools.

The very first thing would be to repeal the anti foreign wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from an 60% or even 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here. Billions earned, and alot of jobs, you fools.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists. Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. Beyond inane.

The most common complaints I have heard from wealthy friends who visit, is that we will never return to Thailand, because the wife cannot shop. She refuses to get taken for a ride, and will not spend $12,500 on the new handbag she has her eyes on, as it is $4,500 at home, and elsewhere. Rich people tend to be savvy and smart. The Thai authorities continue to insist, based on their policies, that these people are dumb. Go ahead. Continue with your nonsense. You might see 2-5 million tourists a year, five years from now. Maybe. Basically, the tourism industry here has died. Not for now, but long term. Blame the fools. Blame Prayuth. He richly deserves the blame.

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by spidermike007

[murraynz]

23 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Are you saying you can predict when the rate is high?

How much in fees/commission does wise charge you on a transfer, and how far below the prevailing cross-rate do you get in baht when the money lands in a Thai bank?

I did not say that I can predict when the change rate will be high,  but if i get 4 notifications within a few hours, of good increases, that take  the rate to what I am comfortable with.. 

The end result in my BKK bank, always gives me a higher rate than what I would get from normal bank exchanges.. That's what matters most. 

[Lacessit]

28 minutes ago, murraynz said:

I did not say that I can predict when the change rate will be high,  but if i get 4 notifications within a few hours, of good increases, that take  the rate to what I am comfortable with.. 

The end result in my BKK bank, always gives me a higher rate than what I would get from normal bank exchanges.. That's what matters most. 

Let me rephrase my question differently.

The NZ dollar as I write is worth 23.38 baht on the cross rate. Is that what you get when you transfer the money via wise into a Thai bank, or is it less, e.g. a rate of 1 NZD = 22.88 baht?

[Madgee]

A few minutes ago:

Hope it helps!

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

I'm a little confused as to why the Russians aren't still coming.

 

I consulted the map, they can fly to Thailand without going anywhere near the western world.

 

Flightradar shows plenty of flights in the air over Russia.

 

So why aren't they coming?

 

Also contrary to what a lot of people seem to think all of Russia has not been sanctioned, they are targeted.

 

I fail to see how Thai or any other airline can't simply take aff and fly to and from Thailand / Russia exactly the same as before.

I think part of the reason Russians aren’t coming—guilt, and the feeling they may not get a warm welcome in Thailand and RoW.  Sure Ukraine is not their fault per se, but for 22 years they’ve watched Vlad doing his thing—while they sat passively by.

[Will B Good]

1 minute ago, Isaan sailor said:

I think part of the reason Russians aren’t coming—guilt

Mmmmm.....possibly.

[itsari]

12 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

I think part of the reason Russians aren’t coming—guilt, and the feeling they may not get a warm welcome in Thailand and RoW.  Sure Ukraine is not their fault per se, but for 22 years they’ve watched Vlad doing his thing—while they sat passively by.

I think the reason the Russians will stop travelling is for there currency has nose dived .

Perhaps partly with the guilt of a country ready to kill Ukrainian Citizens for there goals.

[itsari]

12 hours ago, SmartyMarty said:

Let's get one thing straight....the liquidity crisis has been caused by an inept government, regardless of global conditions. Plenty of other tourism dependent nations have economies thriving.

Please inform us of the countries that rely on tourism are thriving .

The Thai government can not be blamed for how the world situation is .

Covid , Russian attack on the Ukraine resulting in higher energy prices  are situations the Thai government can not be blamed for .

 

 

[itsari]

5 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

There certainly seems to be signs that all is not well.

The Household Debt situation seems to be totally out of control.

Some Folk who rent Apartments from my Missus are having less O/T since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, which is obviously affecting then Export Market especial Vehicles.

There seems to be a rippling effect from the Chinese Slowdown and property crisis also.

All these things along with rampant Inflation, are turning Thailand into a seething pit of Debt.

And on top of all this , The BOT, are banning the use of Crypto Currencies for services and goods from April ( I think ), which is a sure sign they need Liquidity in Baht right now.

99 Baht down, and you are able to buy a House now in Thailand ! Bloody Insane.

 

 

Turning into debt ??? 

That is nothing new .

What is new is the borrowers on a grand scale are unable to pay there loans .

The loans are not declared bad as then the lender would have to place the money lost into reserves 

 

[Excel]

14 hours ago, tonray said:

Time to up the Retirement Visa requirements to shore up the banks...ha ha ha...maybe OA Visa "Bank Failure" insurance ?

Nah, they are more likely to demand that 800,000 is deposited permanently without the right to withdraw one single baht until you leave the country for good

Edited March 25, 2022 by Excel

[cncltd1973]

another failing military government, who could have predicted that

[kentrot]

TOURISM is about 12% of the GDP of Thailand.

PLEASE stop making it sound like it is more ! 

[sambum]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

All bets are off, at this point. The economy is decimated on so many fronts. They keep lying about exports going up, they keep lying about unemployment, they keep lying about economic growth. They cannot lie about tourism being dead. 

 

A note to the big three failed leaders, Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat. You failed miserable, and now the nation knows the benefits of appointments based on merit, and the hazards of appointments based on cronyism, and inexperience. You guys will keep using Covid as a convenient excuse, but we all know it is alot of nonsense. Sure, Covid is a factor. But the way you guys approached it, the severe incompetence you brought to the table, the astonishing failure of your vaccination program, the highly selective nature of the economic shutdowns, the favoritism toward your rich cronies, and the sadism towards the common man, in addition to the extreme timidity you guys are showing with regard to re-opening to tourism, are far larger factors. You have failed miserably. Just admit it, and be men for a change. Resign now. 

And talk to us about the sacrifices you fools are willing to make, to get tourism back. It is not magic. You will not open your doors and have millions pouring in again. Get that? When you kick an animal that is already ill enough times, it eventually dies. Your industry is dying. You have sabotaged it to no end. And this started long before Covid, so stop with the excuses. Real men take responsibility for their mistakes. Punks, juveniles, and men with undeveloped emotional natures refuse to take responsibility for anything, and it makes them all look like fools.

The very first thing would be to repeal the anti foreign wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from an 60% or even 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here. Billions earned, and alot of jobs, you fools.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists. Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. Beyond inane.

The most common complaints I have heard from wealthy friends who visit, is that we will never return to Thailand, because the wife cannot shop. She refuses to get taken for a ride, and will not spend $12,500 on the new handbag she has her eyes on, as it is $4,500 at home, and elsewhere. Rich people tend to be savvy and smart. The Thai authorities continue to insist, based on their policies, that these people are dumb. Go ahead. Continue with your nonsense. You might see 2-5 million tourists a year, five years from now. Maybe. Basically, the tourism industry here has died. Not for now, but long term. Blame the fools. Blame Prayuth. He richly deserves the blame.

 

 

 

Much truth as always in your post, but IMHO the one most important thing that people tend to forget -  especially by the Government is:- 

 

"And this started long before Covid, so stop with the excuses."

[sambum]

1 hour ago, kentrot said:

TOURISM is about 12% of the GDP of Thailand.

PLEASE stop making it sound like it is more ! 

From Google today:-

Tourism is an economic contributor to the Kingdom of Thailand. Estimates of tourism revenue directly contributing to the GDP of 12 trillion baht range from one trillion baht (2013) 2.53 trillion baht (2016), the equivalent of 9% to 17.7% of GDP.^[1][2] When including indirect travel and tourism receipts, the 2014 total is estimated to be the equivalent of 19.3% (2.3 trillion baht) of Thailand's GDP.^[3]: 1 According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019

 

So, 9% in 2013, 17.7% in 2016 (When including indirect travel and tourism receipts, the 2014 total is estimated to be the equivalent of 19.3% (2.3 trillion baht) of Thailand's GDP)

 

And the telling point in the final sentence:-

"According to the secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council in 2019, the government projects that the tourism sector will account for 30% of GDP by 2030, up from 20% in 2019"

 

I remember pre Covid days when every body except TAT realised that the tourist figures were dropping ("They've all gone up North to discover the proper Thailand" ????)  and people in high places were saying that tourism only accounted for a small % of GDP (7-8%), and then when the tourist figures bombed, someone realised that "7-8%" was "a rather conservative estimate/guesstimate.

 

Suffice it to say, that although there were no admissions of guilt, the estimate/guesstimate is now more in line than it was, and it is up to the current Government to stop dragging its heels re all the insane requirements to enter this country. The threat of "incarceration" for what may be a false positive Covid test, ludicrous insurance requirements, and the numerous other hoops that have to be jumped through which all combine to make the average traveller say, "Thanks, "More Amazing Thailand", but no thanks - I'm going on holiday to escape hassle, not to add to it!"  

 

 

[BusyB]

20 hours ago, welshguy said:

"

S&P downgraded ratings of Siam Commercial Bank and Kasikorn Bank, from BBB+ to BBB, and Krungthai Bank and TMB Thanachart Bank, from BBB to BBB-."

 

I copied and pasted this from another thread on here....Dont know if its what youre looking for?

That's one step above junk. Oh lordy.

[mbenson]

7 hours ago, itsari said:

Please inform us of the countries that rely on tourism are thriving .

The Thai government can not be blamed for how the world situation is .

Covid , Russian attack on the Ukraine resulting in higher energy prices  are situations the Thai government can not be blamed for .

 

 

But they can be blamed for creating and perpetuating a confusing and restrictive entry policy while they are experiencing an acute need for foreign currencies.