Electric Vehicles in Thailand

[Yellowtail]

20 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I am going to go back to the analysis by McKinsey previously posted.

 

They do say Hydrogen will start to be used for transportation "from 2040", they also say it will be "fuel cell electric vehicles in long-haul".  These guys are experts and they have done the analysis, they do not think it's going to be general passenger cars.

 

They also say that the transition is entirely across to clean hydrogen, mostly green hydrogen i.e. electrolysis.

 

On the subject of losses, yes the grid has losses. but you do magically put electricity in at one end and it comes out at the other (minus the losses), it's instantaneous.  Hydrogen is part of the battery in a FCEV, the other part is the Fuel Cell, in a BEV it's the battery alone.  I have explained the losses in powering a FCEV, they are significantly more than a BEV, and since the starting point for both types of vehicle is Electricity and so is the ending point, that is why Hydrogen has to be more expensive.

 

Many countries consumers have trialed Hydrogen and they don't like it.

 

Your article about pink hydrogen from Nuclear, McKinsey aren't forecasting any of that in their Hydrogen Outlook, I think they know something...

Well, it could be that there is something they don't know as well. 

 

When you pump a liquid or gas into one end of a conduit, it comes out the other end instantaneously as well.

[JBChiangRai]

9 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

Caption from the Times today. The bubble has well and truly burst in the UK. Thailand do not lead, they follow, so it will happen here before too long. After the initial sales, driven by incentives and tax initiatives for companies, EV’s now have to sell on their merits, and the public are saying, nah.

 

Most of the limited number of private EV purchases in the UK now, are small models bought by affluent second car families that use them to virtue signal on their 10 kilometre supermarket trip; using their V8’s for any journey in excess of 60 kilometres.

 

Hilarious to see the ‘green’ virtue signalling from people buying their cars made in a country that is responsible for 30% of the World’s CO2 emissions.

 

History will record with incredulity that so many people (and large companies) fell for the largest confidence trick of the 21st century … if you were mug enough to buy one, sell it now while you still can¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Your assumption Thailand will follow, is I believe, false.

 

Two completely separate markets with separate circumstances.

 

What kickstarted the EV revolution here was BYD & GWM.  MG not so much.

 

The UK is just getting these cars albeit with tariffs which we don't have.

 

We also enjoy a superb charging network, the UK motorway charging network is abysmal.

 

We don't have Rishi Sunak backpedaling on EV targets, we have a target that hasn't moved.

 

There is no evidence to suggest EV adoption will stall here.

[JBChiangRai]

7 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

 

When you pump a liquid or gas into one end of a conduit, it comes out the other end instantaneously as well.

 

Not when that conduit is road going tanker

[Yellowtail]

3 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

 

Those are completely different usage scenarios. Diesel-electric locomotives need massive torque delivered very incrementally to move thousands of tons of train from a stop. Generating electricity from an onboard diesel makes a lot of sense in that application.

But for scale, I do not understand the difference. 

3 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

Yachts - do you mean that these are boats with electric propulsion driven by a diesel generator, or where the ICE component is just there to charge a battery system (like diesel-electric subs).

No, I mean electric pod drives, like this:

Or this:Azipod - Wikipedia

 

3 hours ago, BKKBike09 said:

Still baffles me why anyone would buy a car that has an ICE that can't actually directly move said vehicle.

Not something I would buy but does not surprise me. People buy all manner of stuff I have no interest in. 

[grs90]

2 hours ago, macahoom said:

 

Is your real name Dr. Who?

No, but I get your point.  Not quite sure where the last 20 years went!!  Don’t think I can edit the post now.

[Yellowtail]

6 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Not when that conduit is road going tanker

Or when you have to charge a battery. 

[Eloquent pilgrim]

18 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

We also enjoy a superb charging network, the UK motorway charging network is abysmal

 

I hope you do not expect to ever be taken seriously again on this forum.

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

I hope you do not expect to ever be taken seriously again on this forum.

 

Funny, I'm laughing.

[Eloquent pilgrim]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Funny, I'm laughing.

 

It's probably just wind 

[Pib]

31 minutes ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

Caption from the Times today. The bubble has well and truly burst in the UK. Thailand do not lead, they follow, so it will happen here before too long. After the initial sales, driven by incentives and tax initiatives for companies, EV’s now have to sell on their merits, and the public are saying, nah.

 

Most of the limited number of private EV purchases in the UK now, are small models bought by affluent second car families that use them to virtue signal on their 10 kilometre supermarket trip; using their V8’s for any journey in excess of 60 kilometres.

 

Hilarious to see the ‘green’ virtue signalling from people buying their cars made in a country that is responsible for 30% of the World’s CO2 emissions.

 

History will record with incredulity that so many people (and large companies) fell for the largest confidence trick of the 21st century … if you were mug enough to buy one, sell it now while you still can¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Take a look at this 4 Apr 2024 Sky News article on the same subject....it gives a lot of detail...nothing as dramatic as a bubble bursting.

https://news.sky.com/story/electric-car-uk-market-share-shrinks-figures-suggest-13107632

 

Above Sky News article gives a ton more detail than the below clickbait Times news article that is only around six sentences long....the Times article leaves out a lot of details about the overall economic and vehicle sales situation in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sluggish-ev-market-holds-back-recovery-in-new-vehicle-sales-8fpzzxwv8

 

 

[KhunLA]

29 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Your assumption Thailand will follow, is I believe, false.... Two completely separate markets with separate circumstances. ... What kickstarted the EV revolution here was BYD & GWM. 

 

MG not so much.

Hey .... where would the EV world be without 100 years of ...

 

 

          

[KhunLA]

UK again ... 

 

[UWEB]

10 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

Also now available in black with Dark interior

 

 

Just returned back from the Motorshow. The 2024 Atto 3 Model looks for me much more better than the old Model and I was nearly going to buy one, but in the last moment I've switched to a Seal. But if someone like to buy, do it. You will not regret it.

[Pib]

4 minutes ago, UWEB said:

Just returned back from the Motorshow. The 2024 Atto 3 Model looks for me much more better than the old Model and I was nearly going to buy one, but in the last moment I've switched to a Seal. But if someone like to buy, do it. You will not regret it.

Cool.   Which Seal model?  How much?

[UWEB]

46 minutes ago, Pib said:

Cool.   Which Seal model?  How much?

The Performance AWD for 1.5 million THB.

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, Pib said:

 

Take a look at this 4 Apr 2024 Sky News article on the same subject....it gives a lot of detail...nothing as dramatic as a bubble bursting.

https://news.sky.com/story/electric-car-uk-market-share-shrinks-figures-suggest-13107632

 

Above Sky News article gives a ton more detail than the below clickbait Times news article that is only around six sentences long....the Times article leaves out a lot of details about the overall economic and vehicle sales situation in the UK.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sluggish-ev-market-holds-back-recovery-in-new-vehicle-sales-8fpzzxwv8

 

 

All valid points, but with a million EV cars on the road, some EV buyers are probably also being lured away from the showrooms and into the second hand EV market. 

This is something we haven't seen in Thailand yet, but if and when the BYD fabric start pumping out 150,000 units, we might get a thriving second hand market around 2025/26 and that could put a damper on new EV sales.

 

"There are now over a million electric cars on our roads.....

 

[Pib]

15 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

All valid points, but with a million EV cars on the road, some EV buyers are probably also being lured away from the showrooms and into the second hand EV market. 

This is something we haven't seen in Thailand yet, but if and when the BYD fabric start pumping out 150,000 units, we might get a thriving second hand market around 2025/26 and that could put a damper on new EV sales.

 

"There are now over a million electric cars on our roads.....

 

Yeap...agree.   Just like stock markets which go up and down from day to day, month to month, year to year, etc., due to various factors but with a long term trend of upwards I expect the EV sales trend to do the same.   And with battery chemistry/range steadily getting better and costs dropping pretty rapidly we are only a few a years away from EV sales really taking off.  Plus it takes a while for the masses to get comfortable with new technology....it took around 3 decades to transition from the horse & buggy/livery stable era to the ICEV/gas station era....transition from ICEV to EV era will probably take another 2 decades.

[Pib]

Just announced in Bangkok Post around 7pm/today/5 Apr that the govt is reducing the diesel subsidy by 0.5baht and B7/B10/20 diesel price will increase by 0.5baht tomorrow morning/6 Apr....article says the govt subsidy fund is too much in debt.  PTT and Bangchak has since announced a 0.5baht increase which means all other fuel companies will surely follow.  That may help EV sales a little especially if the public fees more fuel price increases to follow.

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, Pib said:

Just announced in Bangkok Post around 7pm/today/5 Apr that the govt is reducing the diesel subsidy by 0.5baht and B7/B10/20 diesel price will increase by 0.5baht tomorrow morning/6 Apr....article says the govt subsidy fund is too much in debt.  PTT and Bangchak has since announced a 0.5baht increase which means all other fuel companies will surely follow.  That may help EV sales a little especially if the public fees more fuel price increases to follow.

1.7%? 

[Pib]

36 minutes ago, Pib said:

Just announced in Bangkok Post around 7pm/today/5 Apr that the govt is reducing the diesel subsidy by 0.5baht and B7/B10/20 diesel price will increase by 0.5baht tomorrow morning/6 Apr....article says the govt subsidy fund is too much in debt.  PTT and Bangchak has since announced a 0.5baht increase which means all other fuel companies will surely follow.  That may help EV sales a little especially if the public fees more fuel price increases to follow.

 

 

Below is the Thai PBS news article....and also a crude oil price snapshot.  Yes, a small diesel price increase but its added on to a diesel price that already hurts the pocketbook.  Earlier in the week the govt said they were going to try to maintain the current diesel price and subsidy, but I guess the govt oil fund high/increasing debit and also increasing crude oil price since early 2024 is too much handle right now.  Probably more small increases to come over the coming months unless crude oil starts decreasing soon. 

 

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/diesel-price-to-increase-by-50-satang-per-litre-this-saturday/

The Fuel Fund’s executive committee decided on Friday to increase diesel price by 50 satang to 30.44 baht per litre, effective tomorrow, according to Wisak Watanasap, director of the Office of Oil Fuel Fund.

He said that the committee also increased the subsidy for diesel by 20 satang to 4.77 baht/litre, adding that the price increase will help improve the cash flow of the Oil Fuel Fund which, by March 31, was in the red to the tune of 99.82 billion baht, including 52.73 billion baht for diesel and 47.1 billion baht for LPG.

Wisak attributed the committee’s decision to global diesel price fluctuations, because of the continuing war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, as well as the recent price jump of diesel on the world market by US$2.74 per barrel, which are affecting the Oil Fuel Fund’s cash flow.

He maintains that the diesel price adjustment is in line with the global price situation and will not add too great a financial burden on consumers.

Currently, Thailand is consuming about 71 million litres of diesel per day

 

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude

[Yellowtail]

29 minutes ago, Pib said:

 

 

Below is the Thai PBS news article....and also a crude oil price snapshot.  Yes, a small diesel price increase but its added on to a diesel price that already hurts the pocketbook.  Earlier in the week the govt said they were going to try to maintain the current diesel price and subsidy, but I guess the govt oil fund high/increasing debit and also increasing crude oil price since early 2024 is too much handle right now.  Probably more small increases to come over the coming months unless crude oil starts decreasing soon. 

 

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/diesel-price-to-increase-by-50-satang-per-litre-this-saturday/

The Fuel Fund’s executive committee decided on Friday to increase diesel price by 50 satang to 30.44 baht per litre, effective tomorrow, according to Wisak Watanasap, director of the Office of Oil Fuel Fund.

He said that the committee also increased the subsidy for diesel by 20 satang to 4.77 baht/litre, adding that the price increase will help improve the cash flow of the Oil Fuel Fund which, by March 31, was in the red to the tune of 99.82 billion baht, including 52.73 billion baht for diesel and 47.1 billion baht for LPG.

Wisak attributed the committee’s decision to global diesel price fluctuations, because of the continuing war in Ukraine and in the Middle East, as well as the recent price jump of diesel on the world market by US$2.74 per barrel, which are affecting the Oil Fuel Fund’s cash flow.

He maintains that the diesel price adjustment is in line with the global price situation and will not add too great a financial burden on consumers.

Currently, Thailand is consuming about 71 million litres of diesel per day

 

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude

 

Yeah, the fuel cost for the Fortuner will go from 2.87 to 2.91 per km...

[Yellowtail]

Incidentally, did the price of electricity not go from 3.99 to 4.18, a full 5% in January? 

 

Much better than the17% increase to 4.68 initially proposed. 

 

No doubt prices will come down as demand increases. 

 

Just sayin' 

[josephbloggs]

3 hours ago, Eloquent pilgrim said:

 

I hope you do not expect to ever be taken seriously again on this forum.

 

So the guy who doesn't own an EV and has never used a public charger is saying the person who does own EVs and has used public charges should not be taken seriously.

I know who I would rather listen to.

This forum never fails to amaze.
 

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

All valid points, but with a million EV cars on the road, some EV buyers are probably also being lured away from the showrooms and into the second hand EV market. 

This is something we haven't seen in Thailand yet, but if and when the BYD fabric start pumping out 150,000 units, we might get a thriving second hand market around 2025/26 and that could put a damper on new EV sales.

 

"There are now over a million electric cars on our roads.....

 

Electric vehicle market faces risk from non-performing loans

“The association expects to see EV seizures increase in the second half of this year.”

Pinyo further explained that if these seized EVs were to be sold in the second-hand car market, it’s unlikely that financial institutions would provide loan schemes for potential buyers of used EVs. The lack of confidence in granting loans in the second-hand EV market stems from the market’s expected small size and the continued fluctuation in new EV prices, making it difficult for banks to calculate the value of used EVs, said Pinyo.

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/electric-vehicle-market-faces-risk-from-non-performing-loans

 

I am not sure I would call it a thriving second hand market as these finance institutions will sell for whatever they can get and then go after the original buyer for the outstanding balance

[KhunLA]

13 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Electric vehicle market faces risk from non-performing loans

“The association expects to see EV seizures increase in the second half of this year.”

Pinyo further explained that if these seized EVs were to be sold in the second-hand car market, it’s unlikely that financial institutions would provide loan schemes for potential buyers of used EVs. The lack of confidence in granting loans in the second-hand EV market stems from the market’s expected small size and the continued fluctuation in new EV prices, making it difficult for banks to calculate the value of used EVs, said Pinyo.

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/electric-vehicle-market-faces-risk-from-non-performing-loans

 

I am not sure I would call it a thriving second hand market as these finance institutions will sell for whatever they can get and then go after the original buyer for the outstanding balance

I can't see EV being any more of a risk that ICEV repos, as they are basically the same price, and loans approved on same qualifying rules.

 

If anything, less risk, as cheaper to operate, so buyer has more liquid baht to pay the bank note.  More silliness from the anti folks.  Another what if scenario, along with the ol' doom & gloom sells.   Getting old & unoriginal.  Don't have anything else, at least more interesting  

 

Thaiger, noted for the excellent spot on blips.

 

I like the last sentence, as might be able to pick up a 2nd, on the cheap, from bank.

[vinny41]

8 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I can't see EV being any more of a risk that ICEV repos, as they are basically the same price, and loans approved on same qualifying rules.

 

If anything, less risk, as cheaper to operate, so buyer has more liquid baht to pay the bank note.  More silliness from the anti folks.  Another what if scenario, along with the ol' doom & gloom sells.   Getting old & unoriginal.  Don't have anything else, at least more interesting  

 

Thaiger, noted for the excellent spot on blips.

 

I like the last sentence, as might be able to pick up a 2nd, on the cheap, from bank.

ICE repos  financial institutions are willing to provide loans, EV repos financial institutions are unwilling to provide loans on used models

you go to your bank ask for a loan for a used ev  for  x amount and advise the bank at the same  that the value of the EV may drop by up to B250,000 in the next 4 weeks  because the manufacturer as reduce the price on new models  to generate new sales Bank will tell you come back 4 weeks later when the price has dropped

[KhunLA]

Just now, vinny41 said:

ICE repos  financial institutions are willing to provide loans, EV repos financial institutions are unwilling to provide loans on used models

you go to your bank ask for a loan for a used ev  for  x amount and advise the bank at the same  that the value of the EV may drop by up to B250,000 in the next 4 weeks  because the manufacturer as reduce the price on new models  to generate new sales Bank will tell you come back 4 weeks later when the price has dropped

And you know this how ?

 

Do you really think the bank cares what you borrow money to buy might depreciate in the future, as that's pretty much a given, with the exception of Land & RE.

 

More what ifs ... any real info or personal experiences.  Not even a friend of my cousin's boss story.

 

 

[vinny41]

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

And you know this how ?

 

Do you really think the bank cares what you borrow money to buy might depreciate in the future, as that's pretty much a given, with the exception of Land & RE.

 

More what ifs ... any real info or personal experiences.  Not even a friend of my cousin's boss story.

 

 

Clearly  you didn't read or understand the article 

Pinyo further explained that if these seized EVs were to be sold in the second-hand car market, it’s unlikely that financial institutions would provide loan schemes for potential buyers of used EVs. The lack of confidence in granting loans in the second-hand EV market stems from the market’s expected small size and the continued fluctuation in new EV prices, making it difficult for banks to calculate the value of used EVs, said Pinyo

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/electric-vehicle-market-faces-risk-from-non-performing-loans

When chevrolet announced their 50% firesale financial institutions immediately suspended any future loans against   chevrolet vehicles maybe they were concerned about customers ending up with negative equity on the car loan

 

[KhunLA]

18 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Clearly  you didn't read or understand the article 

Pinyo further explained that if these seized EVs were to be sold in the second-hand car market, it’s unlikely that financial institutions would provide loan schemes for potential buyers of used EVs. The lack of confidence in granting loans in the second-hand EV market stems from the market’s expected small size and the continued fluctuation in new EV prices, making it difficult for banks to calculate the value of used EVs, said Pinyo

https://thethaiger.com/news/business/electric-vehicle-market-faces-risk-from-non-performing-loans

When chevrolet announced their 50% firesale financial institutions immediately suspended any future loans against   chevrolet vehicles maybe they were concerned about customers ending up with negative equity on the car loan

 

You correct, I don't bother reading all these silly links, and go by life experiences from people I know & respect.

 

And certainly not Thaiger news-blips.  Might as well read DailyMail or National Enquirer.

 

Someone states 'it's unlikely' ... sounds like an opinion, not a fact.

 

As I stated, banks loan money at based on appraised value, not future depreciation.  My experiences anyway, and I'll stick with that knowledge, which directly conflicts with what you're implying.

[vinny41]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

You correct, I don't bother reading all these silly links, and go by life experiences from people I know & respect.

 

And certainly not Thaiger news-blips.  Might as well read DailyMail or National Enquirer.

 

As I stated, banks loan money at based on appraised value, not future depreciation.  My experiences anyway, and I'll stick with that knowledge, which directly conflicts with what you're implying.

And the Thaiger article was also written in BP was authored by Pinyo Tanawatcharaporn, the former president of the Association of Used Cars.

And while you are correct that banks and financial institutions based their loans on appraised value if the value drops in value during the application process they will start the application approval from the beginning against the new revised appraised value 

I have seen it happen many times during mortgage applications where if the seller accepts a reduce offer it starts a new  application approval