Concern for the Thai baht and liquidity if Thailand does not move swiftly to raise interest rates

[nauseus]

31 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

Sadly, yes. The best rate I ever got, for a short period only in the late 1990's, was 89 Baht for 1 GBP!!

Well done Bill, me too. End of January 1998 - averaged 89 over three days, best day was 90. 

 

Then again, in parts of the 80's, a pound only got you 29 Baht!  

[itsari]

2 hours ago, shackleton said:

Yes we would all love more Baht for our currency tourist's expats ect 

Great if you have $ ????

If its British Sterling  forget it all I can  see is its going lower ????

I think the same , just buy US dollars instead 

[itsari]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

The US seems to think it has a god given right to interfere in other countries affairs, world leaders in manipulation.

 

USA has the most powerful influence on the world economy .

Best we be grateful for that in the long term .

When you have power you use it to your best advantage.

But it is the world markets living in fear that push up the price of a US dollar .

 

[happydreamer]

Thailand and move swiftly in the same sentence?  Inconceivable 

[StayinThailand2much]

8 hours ago, chilli42 said:

Japanese Yen a good example of this scenario. Lower interest rates will support a hoped for economic recovery but also elevate inflation. What is difficult is the decision and the choice is between bad and worse.

The difference is, that, since the 1990s, inflation has not been a problem in Japan. On the contrary, deflation used to be...

[StayinThailand2much]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

Well done Bill, me too. End of January 1998 - averaged 89 over three days, best day was 90. 

 

Then again, in parts of the 80's, a pound only got you 29 Baht!  

Not sure about the pound, but the dollar might soon buy 35 or 36 baht again.

Edited June 11, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[KanchanaburiGuy]

Dear Minister, 

 

Please don't hurry.

 

Social Security deposit comes in four more days, and the current exchange rate is going to get me 20 more 1.95L bottles of No Sugar Coke or Pepsi than just a week ago....... for free! 

 

If you plan on "manipulating" the baht....... please wait until THURSDAY! 

 

Sincerest regards, 

 

KanchanaburiGuy. 

[spidermike007]

Anyone other than a government worker seems to be looking at 6% or up, for most loans now, with the Thai fed rate at under 1%. Can you imagine what these banksters would charge if the Fed hiked the rates? They seem to enjoy working with huge margins, even though the standards for qualifying here are very high. 

 

It is likely the govt. knows that, and is leery of shutting down what remains of the real estate and new vehicle market here. 

[orang37]

8 hours ago, Berkshire said:

Do you even understand what that means?  It's more to do with Thailand having a trade surplus with the US.  America does not want its trade partners to artificially weaken their currency to gain a trade advantage.  Are you suggesting Thailand is deliberately weakening the THB?  I wish they would...:-)

 

Are you suggesting Thailand has a trade surplus with the US ?

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/balance-of-trade

[AnotherFarang8]

The market began serious signalling to the Fed that rate hikes will not be tolerated. It won’t be long before the Fed turns super dovish and goes back to QE “to stimulate the economy”. Hyperinflation is the only outcome to wash away the trillions of US debt. Making these worries about baht rate difference a moot point.

[KanchanaburiGuy]

6 hours ago, Iamfalang said:

This is all you need:
 

50 baht equals 1 USD

 

coming soon.     It probably won't stop there.  

 

Thank me later.   This is a lock, 99.999% chance in the next few years.   I know.  I am all-knowing, except the exact timing of it.  lol

Excellent. 

 

Now show us your confidence.......... 

 

Please, show us the receipt where you cashed-in all your baht for dollars NOW............. so you can make a tidy profit by converting it back to baht THEN. 

 

I mean, if what you're saying is true, you can increase your baht holdings by, what, 40-50%, in just a short time? 

 

I mean, 33 baht to buy a dollar now.......... and get 50 baht for that same dollar, when you cash it back in? That's a very solid return! 

 

Lol

 

Now where's that Fortune Teller's website, again? Cuz I wanna give to 5 stars!...... 

 

Lol

 

Cheers! 

[chilli42]

1 hour ago, StayinThailand2much said:

The difference is, that, since the 1990s, inflation has not been a problem in Japan. On the contrary, deflation used to be...

That is true.  It will be interesting to see what will happen now that the Yen is devaluing so quickly

[Nong Khai Man]

9 hours ago, hotchilli said:

I can remember 65 baht for the pound, and Thailand was packed to the rafters with tourists.

Yep And a Bottle of Beer at a Bar was 30 or 35 Baht......

[Nong Khai Man]

8 hours ago, Orinoco said:

yes, 100 baht,  bar fine and 400 for the night and seconds in the morning.

those were the days. 

Boy, I Remember those days & Nights Very Fondly....

[Nong Khai Man]

7 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

Thailand has to be inclined to keep the baht relatively weak in order to revitalize the tourism industry and keep exports competitive on world markets. The fact that they are under pressure to raise rates to not only fight inflation but to stop capital flight out of the country at the same time the economy is still struggling does not bode well for Thailand and other emerging markets.

 

After the 1929 stock market crash and also the 1998 financial crisis, money dried up and a lot of overseas money was repatriated home, triggering major economic downturns in markets dependent on foreign capital. Thailand's central bank apparently is seeing signs that this may be happening again. Having to raise interest rates not only to attract foreign investment capital but to fight inflation is a real double whammy for Thailand.

 

In the low interest rate and easy money environment we have experienced in the past 20 plus years people have forgotten that there is a competition for capital. This warning from Thailand's central bank is a reminder of this reality, and could be a canary in the coal mine for Thailand and other emerging markets. Thailand may be forced to raise interest rates even if it will inadvertently strengthen the baht and weakening the economy in the process.

 

I am sure many emerging markets are facing this same dilemma too, but it is particularly ominous for Thailand because of their dependency on the tourism industry. I'd say Thailand has more things to worry about just now than the exchange rate for foreigners cashing their retirement checks.

 

Thailand has to be inclined to keep the baht relatively weak in order to revitalize the tourism industry But......It Ain't Really Working Is it ??

[Nong Khai Man]

6 hours ago, itsari said:

You may well get your wish very soon 

Well it ain't going any LOWER to the GBP !!

[Nong Khai Man]

6 hours ago, shackleton said:

Yes we would all love more Baht for our currency tourist's expats ect 

Great if you have $ ????

If its British Sterling  forget it all I can  see is its going lower ????

Yep, The GBP Seems to go LOWER by the day....

[Nong Khai Man]

5 hours ago, Burma Bill said:

Sadly, yes. The best rate I ever got, for a short period only in the late 1990's, was 89 Baht for 1 GBP!!

I Got 92 for 1 GBP In the ' 97 Crash....

[Nong Khai Man]

4 hours ago, nauseus said:

Well done Bill, me too. End of January 1998 - averaged 89 over three days, best day was 90. 

 

Then again, in parts of the 80's, a pound only got you 29 Baht!  

But Yer could get Half Pi**ed on about 2 Quid then....

[Mac Mickmanus]

9 hours ago, Orinoco said:

yes, 100 baht,  bar fine and 400 for the night and seconds in the morning.

those were the days. 

You could have sex with a prostitute for 400 Baht , and you get free sex in the morning ?

   Which year was that ?

[morrobay]

47 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

The market began serious signalling to the Fed that rate hikes will not be tolerated. It won’t be long before the Fed turns super dovish and goes back to QE “to stimulate the economy”.

No the FEDs primary concern is to control inflation. The stock market doesn't control the FED. Other way around. So the sugar Kool aid QE days are over and stock prices are going to come down. Boo Hoo Hoo

[Orinoco]

15 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

You could have sex with a prostitute for 400 Baht , and you get free sex in the morning ?

   Which year was that ?

around 97, 98. 

 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Orinoco

[Mac Mickmanus]

1 minute ago, Orinoco said:

around 97, 98. 

 

 

Was that the going rate at the time ?

Seems quite cheap for that year 

[Orinoco]

2 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Was that the going rate at the time ?

Seems quite cheap for that year 

about right,  not gogo girls,  just not so special bar ladies.

What was you paying back  then ?

 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Orinoco

[superal]

16 minutes ago, Nong Khai Man said:

Yep, The GBP Seems to go LOWER by the day....

A deliberate action by the UK government to make the UK competitive in the global market . Now has the lowest unemployment rate for more than 50 years , however with inflation now running at 11% and the cost of living soaring , something has to give . If the national rail strike goes ahead there will be chaos . A gallon of petrol now £9 . Fish & chips £10 and up . Working people using free food banks. We should be glad not to be in that situation here in Thailand but the future is not good for the Thai baht according to the banking trade .

[Mac Mickmanus]

2 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

about right,  not gogo girls,  just not so special bar ladies.

What was you paying back  then ?

 

 

I had sex with one of the ladies who worked in the hotel I was staying at , I offered her 300, 400 Baht and she wouldn't accept it .

   I think that she was holding out for the going rate , ended up not giving her anything 

[vivananahuahin]

This is the opposite way during a stagflation and after that a recession, keeping the rates to 0.5, USA will come in a recession, ECB will rise also 0,25%, Thailand wait and hope on more tourists, people don't travel so much during a recession, the conventional wisdom om solving stagflation is to deal with inflation by rising rates and sacrifacing economic growth an higher unemployment, like i say before the only know remedy for stagflation is recession, Mr. de Minister need to think first before it comes to late with more bad news.

[AnotherFarang8]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

No the FEDs primary concern is to control inflation. The stock market doesn't control the FED. Other way around. So the sugar Kool aid QE days are over and stock prices are going to come down. Boo Hoo Hoo

That concern will not last. Companies are already sacking employees and the stock market is nowhere near bottom yet. With millions out of job there will be no choice but to turn on the money printer at full throttle.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

That concern will not last. Companies are already sacking employees and the stock market is nowhere near bottom yet. With millions out of job there will be no choice but to turn on the money printer at full throttle.

Not a chance for money printing, that would only happen if they dropped interest rates.  If they printed money and gave out more free money that would only increase the rate of inflation......Increasing interest rates is to help slow inflation down as people spend less. Laying off employee's is occurring but here are the companies and an article that discusses why many of them are not companies that have been around for a long time other than the lending institutions as mortgage applications and the housing market slows.

https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-the-us-these-are-the-companies-making-cuts-2022-5?op=1

[Graham n So]

12 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

My concern for the Thai Baht is you never get enough of them for a £ and probably never will again ????

Yes the good old days have gone. I was lucky to have moved a good amount of £ to Thai Baht when it was almost 70 to the £. This year I bought £'s with those Baht and made a bit for my troubles. Only wish I  had done it back in Jan 2021 when it was 24 to the £.