How low will the £ go?

[ivor bigun]

On 9/15/2022 at 5:01 PM, MrMuddle said:

I'm Scottish, so I'm well impressed by that!  lol
We spend 25k in a bad month, my (Thai) wife's even tighter than me!

how do you live on that? 

[MrMuddle]

52 minutes ago, ivor bigun said:

how do you live on that? 

Easily. 

[BonMot]

On 9/10/2022 at 11:55 AM, KannikaP said:

Surely if the GBP is down on the THB, it means the THB is STRONGER not weaker.

It doesn't mean that at all. Much of the weakness of GBP is on that side.

 

THB is now 37/us1 or thereabouts.

 

Some fringe economic blogs predict when the dollar is cranked up, peak interest rates and the pound is in a nosedive could be close to parity. Like 1.05...

[JayClay]

3 minutes ago, BonMot said:

Some fringe economic blogs predict when the dollar is cranked up, peak interest rates and the pound is in a nosedive could be close to parity. Like 1.05...

If the current UK crackpot government remain on their current trajectory then I can see the pound sinking below the dollar before the next general election.

[Walker88]

3 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

. Republicans win mid terms boost it.

 

 

If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses.

 

Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies,

 

Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs.

 

repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. That has always been a joke. repubs are to fiscal conservatismrepubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022.

 

A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

[Sparktrader]

12 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs.

1982 to 1986 boom under Regan.

 

Your bias is really bad.

 

From August 1982 to its peak in August 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose from 776 to 2,722, 250% rise.

[Denim]

I've had good luck and bad luck over the years. Worst was about 26.

 

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-currency-converter.php?C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD=18&MM=10&YYYY=1984&A=100&B=1

 

 

[Sparktrader]

13 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

The opposite. Market bearish now, will go up if they win. Stop all the bad decisions.

[BonMot]

12 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses.

 

Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies,

 

Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs.

 

repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatiism. That has always been a joke. repubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022.

 

A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

Pretty much everything you've written is untrue.

 

Biden saving the economy was good for a laff.

 

You certainly did not go Wharton or HBS.

 

I will grant you that Republicans can spend money almost as fast as Dems.

 

It really doesn't matter and that's why the congress is spending as it is. The nation is finished. They're all getting backhanders on the way out.

[BonMot]

3 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

The opposite. Market bearish now, will go up if they win. Stop all the bad decisions.

Mid term elections even if Republicans win will have little affect. It's well beyond the pols.

 

Fed balance sheet

Interest rates

Treasury balance sheet.

Congressional spending

Bond market

 

Republicans just spent 40B on Ukraine black hole. Why would the market turn around simply because they landed a tiny majority?

[Sparktrader]

Just now, BonMot said:

Mid term elections even if Republicans win will have little affect. It's well beyond the pols.

 

Fed balance sheet

Interest rates

Treasury balance sheet.

Congressional spending

Bond market

 

Republicans just spent 40B on Ukraine black hole. Why would the market turn around simply because they landed a tiny majority?

You mean Biden spent 40bn on Ukraine

[BonMot]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

You mean Biden spent 40bn on Ukraine

70% of House Republicans voted with Biden.

 

It's on them as well if not more so. All the chicken hawks doubly so.

[Walker88]

31 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses.

 

Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies,

 

Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs.

 

repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. That has always been a joke. repubs are to fiscal conservatismrepubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022.

 

A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

Editing got messed up and time ran out

 

Should be: 

 

If repubs win the midterms, I suspect the dollar collapses.

 

Other than magats, few people in the world---the kind who might park wealth in the US---think the current repubs are anything more than a cult of personality, absent any platform whatsoever except unquestioning fealty to their messiah. repubs have slogans, but no policies,

 

Historically, repubs are worse for the economy than dems. Not a single repub POTUS since Lincoln has NOT presided over the start of a Recession. Not one. Also, the equity market performs better under dems than repubs.

 

repubs are also the spendthrifts, despite their claims of fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. That has always been a joke. repubs are to fiscal conservatism what The Village People are to cops and cowboys. repubs give tax cuts that wreck the deficit and benefit the Donor Class. Dems spend money on infrastructure that benefits everybody. No greater contrast can be seen than comparing 45's profligacy (an additional $7,000,000,000,000 to the National Debt, a 37% increase, in a mere 4 years) vs Biden already cutting the yearly deficit by $350 billion in FY2021 and $1.7 trillion in FY2022.

 

A repub victory in the midterms would be a disaster for the dollar and the US.

 

 

[Walker88]

21 minutes ago, BonMot said:

Pretty much everything you've written is untrue.

 

Biden saving the economy was good for a laff.

 

You certainly did not go Wharton or HBS.

 

I will grant you that Republicans can spend money almost as fast as Dems.

 

It really doesn't matter and that's why the congress is spending as it is. The nation is finished. They're all getting backhanders on the way out.

Point out anything that is untrue.

 

I turned down both Wharton and Harvard Business School, and instead attended Stanford. Had several Nobel Prize winners for profs, along with a future Fed Chairman. Yes, got into all three.

 

I have gathered all the data going back to 1860. I also know how to adjust for accounting gimmickry, which admittedly was brought to an art form by Robert Rubin under Clinton. Reagan got it started (accounting gimmickry to hide exploding deficits)

 

When Obama left office the Nat Debt was about $19.5 trillion all-in (no accounting nonsense). When 45 lost and left, it was nearly $27 trillion.

 

Too often the lie is repeated about 'best economy ever' under 45. That is quite far from reality, even before Covid. 45's average GDP growth was beaten by 71% of all Quarters since the end of WWII. After Covid he fell into the bottom quartile.

 

He inherited 4.8% UE from Obama (who had inherited the Financial Crisis and a system days away from total collapse). 45 left Biden 6.8% UE and a Recession.

[Walker88]

36 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

The opposite. Market bearish now, will go up if they win. Stop all the bad decisions.

You play the market that way if you wish. Just don't put more in than you can afford to lose.

 

The market is bearish not because of dems, but because of inflation,. If you think inflation is Biden's fault, you need to go back to school. Inflation doesn't arise instantly. The combo of money printing to save the system from 2008, plus the spendthrift ways of 45, and to some extent the putin invasion of Ukraine, all created the perfect storm that is WORLDWIDE inflation (as other economies also printed wildly post 2008).

 

Look at how repubs overspend: tax cuts for the Donor Class.  Look at how Dems overspend: infrastructure that benefits everyone.

 

The data is accessible. Dems have historically been better both for reining in spending and a better performing equity market. As I remember Paul Tudor Jones saying back in the mid 80s, the Reagan economy was purely debt fueled and began a disaster in terms of the National Debt, Remember the total debt in 1980 was $1 trillion. (Paul happens to be a Dem and is worth $7 billion)

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

When Obama left office the Nat Debt was about $19.5 trillion all-in (no accounting nonsense). When 45 lost and left, it was nearly $27 trillion.

Covid hmmm

[Sparktrader]

50 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The market is bearish not because of dems, but because of inflation,.

Wrong. Its bearish after a very long bullrun save covid.

[Sparktrader]

On 9/8/2022 at 10:10 PM, peterfranks said:

Or maybe it's because of this?

 

Death of queen hurts. Lack of direction, brexit. B grade industry.

[Sparktrader]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

left Biden 6.8% UE and a Recession.

Edited 1 hour ago by

Trump had covid to deal with. Every country racked up debt and problems. Good before that.

[peterfranks]

23 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Trump had covid to deal with.

Yeah, and he handled that very well. NOT?

[Sparktrader]

9 minutes ago, peterfranks said:

Yeah, and he handled that very well. NOT?

I saw no countries handle it well. More deaths under Biden btw

[peterfranks]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

More deaths under Biden btw

Maybe because covid was only an issue for about the last 9 months of Trumps tenure, while for Biden it has been 2 years and counting.

 

Don't need to reply with a graph or something, as I'm gonna do something I should have done the first week I joined this forum, and not see the reply.

[Kwasaki]

How about how low will the pound go in relation to the baht, I reckon no lower than 41 this year. ????

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, peterfranks said:

Maybe because covid was only an issue for about the last 9 months of Trumps tenure, while for Biden it has been 2 years and counting.

 

Don't need to reply with a graph or something, as I'm gonna do something I should have done the first week I joined this forum, and not see the reply.

Vaccines. Biden took office January 20, 2021. 20 months ago not 2 years and counting.

 

 

 

 

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Kwasaki said:

How about how low will the pound go in relation to the baht, I reckon no lower than 41 this year. ????

39.2

[BritManToo]

I think the pound will go as low as the Euro, $CAN, $AUS, $NZ.

The Thai government is pumping billions into the Baht to try and keep it falling against the $US.

[Kwasaki]

13 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I think the pound will go as low as the Euro, $CAN, $AUS, $NZ.

The Thai government is pumping billions into the Baht to try and keep it falling against the $US.

How would anyone know the Thai govt is holding the baht up and how long would they be able to do that, doesn't sound right or a possibility.

[Thailand]

My UK non indexed linked  state pension with the current rate of exchange means it is worth not a lot. 

Arrived here when the rate was about 72, 12 years non index linked.

But probably a more than acceptable monthly income for many Thais.

[Kwasaki]

28 minutes ago, Thailand said:

My UK non indexed linked  state pension with the current rate of exchange means it is worth not a lot. 

Arrived here when the rate was about 72, 12 years non index linked.

But probably a more than acceptable monthly income for many Thais.

That's where planning retirement is important you might live longer than you thought. ????

[Bangkok Barry]

Wasn't the pound down to about 37 or 38 a year or two ago, maybe before Covid?