Reaching tourism targets may depend on Beijing as much as Bangkok decisions

[webfact]

 

By Editor

 

Senior government officials in Thailand have expressed confidence that the country’s economy has entered its recovery phase, after more than two years of anemic growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

The primary driver of this recovery is tourism, which has rebounded strongly after the devastation wrought by pandemic-induced travel bans and quarantines.

 

According to a report by Reuters, government spokesperson Anucha Burapachaisri said that the government expects to earn 2.38 trillion baht in tourism revenue next year.

 

It is hoping that tourism arrivals jump back up to 32 million, or around 80 percent of their level in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic.

 

Since Thailand has fully reopened to foreign travelers, dropping the requirement that they present a negative PCR test prior to departure, travelers have returned to Thailand in encouraging numbers.

 

Anucha said that the government is targeting between 8 and 10 million visitors for 2022, which marks a massive increase on the paltry 428,000 foreign citizens who made it through the country’s maze of vaccination, visa, and quarantine requirements in 2021. In 2020, the country welcomed 6.7 million foreign visitors, most of them before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March.

 

Thailand’s economy, the second largest among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is unusually dependent on tourism.

 

While Thailand managed to contain COVID-19 with relative success for the first year of the pandemic, the shutdowns and collapse in international travel devastated the country’s tourism industry. In 2019, Thailand attracted nearly 40 million tourists, and the industry generated an estimated 20 percent of Thailand’s GDP.

 

The stagnation in the tourism sector in 2021 was reflected in Thailand’s economy as a whole, which grew just 1.5 percent, among the slowest rates in the region, after negative growth in 2020.

 

Conversely, the improved tourism numbers are aiding the economy as a whole. Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said that the Thai economy is expected to grow by 3-3.5 percent this year, and then between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2023, helped by the reopening of the country to visitors, as well as increased exports.

 

In its latest Asian Development Outlook, released in July, the Asian Development Bank projected Thailand’s economy to grow by 2.9 percent in 2022, the slowest rate of the six largest ASEAN economies, and by 4.2 percent next year.

 

Despite the recovery so far, the Thai government’s target of 30 million-plus visitors next year is optimistic.

 

Prior to the pandemic, the country was heavily reliant on visitors from China. In 2019, Thailand welcomed  11 million Chines tourists, more than a quarter of the total for that year.

 

However, the Chinese government’s “zero-COVID” policy has all but choked off outbound tourism, and despite the loosening of travel restrictions in certain cities, the immediate outlook is unclear.

 

According to the Bangkok Post, Thailand received just 36,246 Chinese visitors in the first five months of this year, and Thai officials have expressed some confidence that this could rise to 500,000 by the end of 2022. But these are still anemic figures, compared to the pre-pandemic period.

 

Whether the Thai government meets its tourism targets for 2023 may well depend on decisions made in Beijing as much as in Bangkok.

 

Source: https://royalcoastreview.com/2022/10/tourism-targets-may-depend-on-beijing-as-much-as-bangkok-decisions/

 

-- © Copyright Royal Coast Review 2022-10-11

 

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[chalawaan]

China has major socioeconomic issues that are now so great, the disintegration of the state is all but a given. 

Some of the more intelligent presumptions I've seen are saying the current cantons, though not necessarily the CCP, will cease to exist as a united entity by the end of the twenties. 

That will obliterate the Chinese tourist behemoth in the process. 

[ikke1959]

Thailand, THailand, you don't seem to understand that you ruining your own tourist industry. It is not other countries, but the people who want to come here choose. Make it attractive for them if you want, instead of only focus on double standards and wealthy people. It seems you don't want tourists as they could be a treat for the failing Government

[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

However, the Chinese government’s “zero-COVID” policy has all but choked off outbound tourism, and despite the loosening of travel restrictions in certain cities, the immediate outlook is unclear.

Sure better headline would be 'Thailand bemoans putting all eggs in one Chinese basket'

[Nicholas Paul KNIGHT]

I will continue to bang this particylar drum, instead of trumpeting all the often flawed ideas, why not pocncentrae on ridding the Tourism Industry of Scams and Corruption this includes the many over-priced and often poorly serviced Tourism venues, where a single foreigner has to pay ion some cases 300 baht to visit a place.

If WESTERN countries did that for example it would cost you nearly 3000 baht just to visit Windsor castle. Hust how greedy are Thais ....apparently VERY GREEDY. 

[Iamfalang]

Are you saying the tourists have a say in tourism?

 

Force falangs to speak Chinese to welcome these super hi-so guests!!!  11 million in a year versus 73 poor backpackers!!  

[nobodysfriend]

I know that a lot of Europeans are fed up with the rising prices and the cold winter over there ...

Up to Thailand to provide a new visa for , let's say , a 6 month stay , to attract foreigners ( wealthy , of course ) , to spend the winter month ( and their money ) n Thailand .

[Gknrd]

Personally I am enjoying it. China will be in lockdown one way or another for the next 10 years. 

Thailand? Who cares!  They better be making plans how they are going to feed themselves in the coming years.

Thailand made their decision.  

 

[Gknrd]

1 hour ago, RichardColeman said:

Sure better headline would be 'Thailand bemoans putting all eggs in one Chinese basket'

Hard to believe what they were thinking.  

[Stargeezr]

Well TAT and Thailand government, maybe asking all the world to come to Thailand and give a 60 day visa free

stay, would be a good start of showing that you really want tourists to visit Thailand this Winter.

45 days are a nice start, but for retired visitors, a 60 day visa free stay would be so much better.

Try a little harder.

 

[AlQaholic]

Just to clarify some statistics.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic:

Tourist arrivals from East Asia; 68.5% of total arrivals, of these, 40% was Chinese, meaning roughly 60% of the total East Asia arrivals was from other East Asian countries with Malaysia in the lead.

Tourist arrivals from Europe; 20% of total arrivals.

Contrary to what many thinks, Chinese stayed on average 7.76 days and spent on average 6,334 Baht/day, which is more than the 4,258 Baht/day that European spent, although the Europeans stayed on average 17 days. At least that is what the Thai statistics say.

Source: http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/en/17.aspx

[soalbundy]

1 hour ago, nobodysfriend said:

I know that a lot of Europeans are fed up with the rising prices and the cold winter over there ...

Up to Thailand to provide a new visa for , let's say , a 6 month stay , to attract foreigners ( wealthy , of course ) , to spend the winter month ( and their money ) n Thailand .

The world is in a mess right now, in China the economy seems to be imploding, in the west people are barely managing to pay rents/mortgages, gas, electricity, food etc. I doubt that a holiday is high on the agenda, especially not one involving high air fares. With a recession looming most will be worried about job security and inflation. My brother is/was a millionaire providing food for high end restaurants in London, he is watching in despair as his business is collapsing around him, it seems as if even the wealthy have cut down on eating out so a large influx of tourists to Thailand, or anywhere, seems unlikely for this year or the next year for that matter.

[Cake Monster]

33 minutes ago, Stargeezr said:

Well TAT and Thailand government, maybe asking all the world to come to Thailand and give a 60 day visa free

stay, would be a good start of showing that you really want tourists to visit Thailand this Winter.

45 days are a nice start, but for retired visitors, a 60 day visa free stay would be so much better.

Try a little harder.

 

IMO, the Country needs to try a lot harder

[Khun Loong]

Enjoy it while you can because they will return.

[wwest5829]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

Thailand, THailand, you don't seem to understand that you ruining your own tourist industry. It is not other countries, but the people who want to come here choose. Make it attractive for them if you want, instead of only focus on double standards and wealthy people. It seems you don't want tourists as they could be a treat for the failing Government

Having been happily retired here for over a decade, it is sad for me to see Thailand having so much potential not focusing on the large working middle class as the main body of tourists which could be attracted to coming to Thailand for vacation breaks. Compared with how many in the rich and famous class? Thailand does not have to go down to the begpacker level, focus on the western working middle class.

[BusyB]

1 hour ago, Stargeezr said:

Well TAT and Thailand government, maybe asking all the world to come to Thailand and give a 60 day visa free

stay, would be a good start of showing that you really want tourists to visit Thailand this Winter.

45 days are a nice start, but for retired visitors, a 60 day visa free stay would be so much better.

Try a little harder.

 

Malaysia grants a 90 day visa free stay - only want to see a return flight.

[gearbox]

1 hour ago, Stargeezr said:

Well TAT and Thailand government, maybe asking all the world to come to Thailand and give a 60 day visa free

stay, would be a good start of showing that you really want tourists to visit Thailand this Winter.

45 days are a nice start, but for retired visitors, a 60 day visa free stay would be so much better.

Try a little harder.

 

I haven't seen anywhere in the world a specific tourist visa for "retired tourists". Such thing doesn't exist.

 

 

[gearbox]

6 minutes ago, BusyB said:

Malaysia grants a 90 day visa free stay - only want to see a return flight.

I've been to Malaysia many times pre-covid, they never asked me if I have an outbound ticket.

[Eleftheros]

Tourism numbers are stagnating, according to the Ministry of Tourism.

 

Both July and August saw about 1.1 million arrivals, and given the economic and geopolitical situation, they'll do well to hold on to that.

 

That would equate to an year total of about 8 million, just 20% of the pre-Covid best years.

[gearbox]

3 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

I know that a lot of Europeans are fed up with the rising prices and the cold winter over there ...

Up to Thailand to provide a new visa for , let's say , a 6 month stay , to attract foreigners ( wealthy , of course ) , to spend the winter month ( and their money ) n Thailand .

The wealthy can always pay their electricity and other bills.

[NoshowJones]

37 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

IMO, the Country needs to try a lot harder

If the soldiers got a personal bonus for the amount of tourists they attracted to Thailand, well I don't think anyone needs me to explain.

[spidermike007]

Such unrealistic projections. Thailand will be very lucky to get 30 million tourists ten years from now. Everything has changed. They are more likely to get under 10 million a year, for the foreseeable future. For a dozen good reasons. 

[lujanit]

I keep banging on about this.  Not all so called tourists are actual tourists.  TAT just count everyone who enters the country as tourists probably even transient travelers.  IMHO we are better off without the Chinese who come on zero baht trips and contribute nothing to the economy.

[RandiRona]

Papa Xi isn’t letting them out so count them out Thailand!!!

[Gknrd]

Really IMHO it doesn't matter anymore at this point.  The leaders need to start listening to the academics. There are some smart people in Thailand. If not Thailand will keep turning inward and all will be lost IMO.

 

[Nabby]

Keep dreaming, Senior government officials. It will be years before Xi lets the Chinese out again, perhaps decades. 

[Blumpie]

The chinese aren't coming OK?  You need to be dropped on your head seventy seven times and can still realize that China doesn't care about tourism at all.  

This is their form of control.  And no, I am not a conspiracy nut.  It's just a convenience that's all.  

[Partenavia]

If they want to attract retired people from Europe, who actually spend reasonable amounts of money, and would like to stay 4 or 5 months, during winter in Europe, then it would be a good idea to look at the insane visa requirements. Totally unnecessary and intrusive requirements. Most take one look and go elsewhere.

[hotandsticky]

52 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Such unrealistic projections. Thailand will be very lucky to get 30 million tourists ten years from now. Everything has changed. They are more likely to get under 10 million a year, for the foreseeable future. For a dozen good reasons. 

 

 

For selfish reasons I hope you are right.

[BangkokReady]

47 minutes ago, lujanit said:

IMHO we are better off without the Chinese who come on zero baht trips and contribute nothing to the economy.

But there's "we" and there's the people that make decisions.  They will get their cut, even if no locals make anything out of the deal.  Check out Cambodia.