Move Forward Scores Surprise Victory; Pita To Become PM

[ExpatOilWorker]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:22 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

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Let me correct that for you:

 

No better way to guarantee future coups than to try to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

[realfunster]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:22 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

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I really don’t think that is going to happen…and if we do indeed want some level of peace and stability in the country, I suggest it is better to just reconcile and “move forward”.

 

 

[bannork]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:28 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

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Jim, your man in the sand could still come home if PT team up with Bhumjai Thai and all the other conservative losers. 

Of course this would infuriate the entire middle and working class Thais who want reform in Thailand.

This is a test for PT. Do they genuinely want to change Thailand or will they stick to the fading brand of Thaksin?

I can't see your hero coming back by July, by the way. 

PT are the only party that want him back and they fell far short of the landslide they wanted.

Thaksin is 'out here on the perimeter (where ) there are no stars.'

 

[rwill]

Well now we will get to see what really happens.  I wouldn't get to excited yet.

The constitution was rewrote to really try and prevent others from getting in.

Plus the person at the top of it all may have a bigger say in this if he is not happy with how things are going.

[save the frogs]

meet the new boss. same as the old boss. -- the who

[zzaa09]

  On 5/14/2023 at 8:19 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

Not sure about that. This result is probably the best scenario for Thaksin. His party is crucial in forming a governing coalition so there is power there whilst he will be able to take a back seat as Move Forward push more controversial reforms through parliament. Thaksin would never take the lead on issues such as lese majeste and military reform but his support will be required for Pita to get these changes legislated. PT ruling in their own right would be fraught with danger, this outcome appears that Thaksin will be able to have his cake and eat it. He should be home this year. The end of the Thaksin era is here as  Move Forward are only going to get stronger and stronger as they implement their policies and the Thai demography continues to change in the favour. What of the conservative side from here on in now that they can no longer rely on coups to gain power? You would think it is a long and barren road ahead for them.

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All this aside, let's hope something decent comes outta all of this c***. 

Hoping for the best.

We forget, it's about the benefit of the commons. 

[Pink Mist]

Off topic posts and replies removed 

[MrMojoRisin]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:08 PM, bannork said:

Jim, your man in the sand could still come home if PT team up with Bhumjai Thai and all the other conservative losers. 

Of course this would infuriate the entire middle and working class Thais who want reform in Thailand.

This is a test for PT. Do they genuinely want to change Thailand or will they stick to the fading brand of Thaksin?

I can't see your hero coming back by July, by the way. 

PT are the only party that want him back and they fell far short of the landslide they wanted.

Thaksin is 'out here on the perimeter (where ) there are no stars.'

 

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Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

[MrMojoRisin]

  On 5/14/2023 at 10:52 PM, eisfeld said:

I agree if they were to pull all the tricks in order to block MF+PT to form a proper government then it would probably get ugly. But it doesn't have to be black and white. The senate holds a lot of power. They could extract concessions from the house.

 

For example the topic of mandatory conscription. MF said they want to abolish it. For that, they have to pass a law through the house. But the senate which is controlled by the military has to approve it. So that wont happen. But then what?

 

It's an interesting situation because afaik the house can't push changes to the constituion which enshrines the power of the senate. And because the senate is not elected by the voters, the voters can never push for a change to the current system unless they find a way to get senators on their side.

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The military appoint the Senate

The government appoint the military leadership.

Hmm?

[kinyara]

Potentially one of the best aspects of this result is that BhumjaiThai aren't needed in a coalition if Move Forward and Pheu Thai can agree to work together. All the mega Transport projects with billions of baht budget not under the control of a grubby party headed by 2 families in the construction business is a definite Move Forward.

[bannork]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:23 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

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I think Professor Thitinan got it right. PT focused on their populist policies as usual whilst MF stressed real institutional reform.

FF and MF didn't come about because of Thaksin. Educated and politically active Thais saw there was simply no party interested in real reform in Thailand. 

Hence their creations, breaking on through to the other side.

[Spock]

So marijuana stays or goes>? If the latter, when?

[Gandtee]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:22 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

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And how would they do that with the military and courts still holding sway?

[sidneybear]

  On 5/14/2023 at 10:10 PM, ukrules said:

Don't count your chickens yet........????

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Right. We've been in this movie before. At least Thaksin's lot seem to be a spent force, and these western worshipping lefties that have replaced them will soon find out that they won't be able to keep their promises. 

[MrMojoRisin]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:38 PM, Gandtee said:

And how would they do that with the military and courts still holding sway?

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But do they still hold sway?

[sidneybear]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:38 PM, Gandtee said:

And how would they do that with the military and courts still holding sway?

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Precisely. They'll last a few months, just like those who went before them. 

[bamnutsak]

Wow! An Orange Wave, and it has swept the Military parties out to sea.

 

What a rebuke for the 3Ps. It will be interesting to see how Prayuth handles such a massive and embarassing loss.

 

Regarding the next coalition government, MVF+PTP+BJT would only require peeling off a dozen or so Senators, to get to 376. There have ben news reports about certain senators being identified as malleable.

 

This assumes Pita hasn't read any news articles about "media shares" in the last 40 years, for which he could be charged/banned and his party dissolved.

 

Major obstacles remain if the next government to pushes too hard a Shinawatra re-patriation, or any reform of the Institution. The latter of which would likely spark a military repsonse.

 

 

[zzaa09]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:23 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

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Those particular stepping stones require replacing with new stones.

 

....btw, I too can envision old Takky returning very soon and not involving himself directly into the political machine. 

Advising or maintaining support would be more likely the direction. 

[bamnutsak]

  On 5/14/2023 at 11:38 PM, Spock said:

So marijuana stays or goes>? If the latter, when?

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My current read (pre-election, I'll stick with it)

 

re-listing as a narcotic as soon as a new MoPH Minister is appointed: 10%

 

some new, minor regulations pending the CCA and the formation of the Cannabis Control Board: 50%

 

No changes until the CCA is gazetted: 40%

 

The CCA could contain many new restrictions including medical only (supervised by DTAM). Impossible to predict at this point

 

 

 

One major question is if BJT will join MVF and PTP in a coalition government.

[Henryford]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:28 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

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The 250 seat military appointed Senate might think so.

[Reigntax]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:28 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

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It did last time with Prayuth.

majority of both houses elect the PM and the senate is stacked with junta appointed cronies and cohorts.

[VinnieK]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:22 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

It will be interesting to see how hard the new government led by Pita goes after the outgoing government for their crimes. No better way to prevent future coups than to lock up the perpetrators of the last coup.

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Sure....going after the generals can never go wrong...????‍♂️????‍♂️

[Zack61]

Best case scenario is we end up with a quasi-democratically elected government but until the 250 senate seats allotment is abolished we will never see true democracy. No government can deliver to the people whilst the true power is still in the hands of the corrupt military and their cronies. I can't see  anything but a very rocky road ahead.

[metisdead]

A post containing copyrighted graphs from Reuters has been removed as there was no supporting link provided:

 

27. You will not post any copyrighted material except as fair use laws apply (as in the case of news articles). Only post a link, the headline and three sentences from the article. Content in the public domain is limited to the same restrictions.

[spidermike007]

  On 5/14/2023 at 9:49 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

Strange numbers for Prayuth, only 814,000 constituency votes yet a relatively massive 4,752,000 party list votes. It will be interesting to see an analysis once the count is complete.

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No doubt stolen votes. The extent of the corruption of stench of these guys knows no bounds. Hopefully, Cha Cha will face serious charges soon, and either end up in prison or exile, after they track down his massive, stolen fortune. 

[sammieuk1]

First job find out where all the money has gone along with the next million similar jobs ????

[StevePettman]

This win by Move Forward is definitely no surprise. Most younger Thai's have been following this Party on social media and have openly discussed political issues. They are thirsty for a real democracy, and this is the first important step.

[jaywalker2]

  On 5/14/2023 at 7:28 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

The leader of the party that wins the most seats has the first opportunity to attempt to form a coalition - it is standard practice all over the world.

 

The likely coalition of MF, PT and several smaller parties will command at least 308 seats.

 

At best, a coalition of Prayuth, Prawit, Anutin and a few smaller parties would command about 183 seats - under the 251 required for a lower house majority.

 

Are you suggesting that the leader of a party that won less seats should become the PM?

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183 plus 250 and Prayut could still win prime minister.  The question is whether Peau Thai would join forces with them if they promised to bring Thaksin home.

[wealthychef]

  On 5/14/2023 at 8:19 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

What of the conservative side from here on in now that they can no longer rely on coups to gain power?

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This is interesting, pardon my ignorance, but what about the current dynamic makes coups impossible or less likely moving forward?  

[MrMojoRisin]

  On 5/15/2023 at 12:06 AM, wealthychef said:

This is interesting, pardon my ignorance, but what about the current dynamic makes coups impossible or less likely moving forward?  

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The people have had enough, the kids are no longer afraid.

Let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks.