Economic peril poses a greater threat to Srettha’s government than politics

[webfact]

Even though there are plenty of political challenges facing the Pheu Thai party, not the least being in a weak coalition, the economic challenges are far greater and could spell potential doom for the government if not handled correctly. Experts say that 2024 will likely be a down year for the global economy and several macroeconomic issues will likely present themselves to the incoming government.

 

One pressing concern is Thailand’s positioning as a manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia. In recent years, countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have emerged as strong competitors. Manufacturing accounts for a significant portion of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a nation’s borders. When other countries like Vietnam and the Philippines become more attractive for manufacturing, foreign investments could divert away from Thailand.

 

This shift impacts not just factory jobs but also the broader economy, from the truck drivers who move goods to the workers in ancillary industries. To counter this, Thailand needs to invest in innovation and advanced technologies. By moving into higher-value sectors, the country can offer something that low-cost manufacturing destinations may not be able to match easily.

 

by Thai Enquirer

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/50572/economic-peril-poses-a-greater-threat-to-sretthas-government-than-politics/

 

-- THAI ENQUIRER 2023-08-31

 

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[ikke1959]

Some easy measures could be done to keep the impact low.. First approve the Gay Marriage.. It will boost the local economy as many want o marry and give parties.. Secondly raise the wages or even better change to monthly payments, so that holidays are being paid too... and spend less money on "nothing" such as committees, meetings, and many other things that are of no use but cost a lot of money... 

[CharlieKo]

4 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Some easy measures could be done to keep the impact low.. First approve the Gay Marriage.. It will boost the local economy as many want o marry and give parties.. Secondly raise the wages or even better change to monthly payments, so that holidays are being paid too... and spend less money on "nothing" such as committees, meetings, and many other things that are of no use but cost a lot of money... 

Gay Marriage has nothing to do with the economy. One of the reasons the Philippines is more attractive is low wages. Also most people get paid monthly already.

[ExpatOilWorker]

23 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Some easy measures could be done to keep the impact low.. First approve the Gay Marriage.. It will boost the local economy as many want o marry and give parties.. Secondly raise the wages or even better change to monthly payments, so that holidays are being paid too... and spend less money on "nothing" such as committees, meetings, and many other things that are of no use but cost a lot of money... 

Gay marriage, wait what?

How will removing young productive male from the labor force and let them fornicate all day long increase national productivity?

OK, Thailand ???????? may gain a few ranks in the global happiness ???? index, but still.

[kimamey]

52 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Some easy measures could be done to keep the impact low.. First approve the Gay Marriage.. It will boost the local economy as many want o marry and give parties.. Secondly raise the wages or even better change to monthly payments, so that holidays are being paid too... and spend less money on "nothing" such as committees, meetings, and many other things that are of no use but cost a lot of money... 

Raising wages seems a good idea but won't it just make costs higher for companies, thus making them less competitive than other countries with lower labour costs. If some of the cost could come from the rich owners of big companies then great, and it would help with the large inequality in Thailand. Can't see it happening though.

[ikke1959]

1 hour ago, kimamey said:

Raising wages seems a good idea but won't it just make costs higher for companies, thus making them less competitive than other countries with lower labour costs. If some of the cost could come from the rich owners of big companies then great, and it would help with the large inequality in Thailand. Can't see it happening though.

The problem of costs for companies is a bit fake.. Indeed the costs will go up, but than ( I am sorry to say) a few people must be fired. I walk in many stores and i see a lot of people not working but playing their cellphones.. So they don't have anything to do. The productivity will go up if they know when they play on the phone they will get fired.. On the other hand there is so much work in Thailand that a lot of Burmese/Cambodian/Laos /Malaysian people have to come in to do the jobs.. The ones on their cellphones could take those jobs too.. Everybody happy...

[Keep Right]

Thailand is a hopelessly corrupt country where English competency is severely lacking. I do not see this changing any time soon. No reason for foreign companies to build and invest in a perfidious country with a lack of law enforcement and ethics. 

[CharlieKo]

18 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

The problem of costs for companies is a bit fake.. Indeed the costs will go up, but than ( I am sorry to say) a few people must be fired. I walk in many stores and i see a lot of people not working but playing their cellphones.. So they don't have anything to do. The productivity will go up if they know when they play on the phone they will get fired.. On the other hand there is so much work in Thailand that a lot of Burmese/Cambodian/Laos /Malaysian people have to come in to do the jobs.. The ones on their cellphones could take those jobs too.. Everybody happy...

You really don't now what you are talking about! The reason Thai's don't do the jobs that the migrant workers do, is 1, The migrant workers get paid less than Thai's. 2, Thai's won't do the jobs the migrant workers do. As for workers on mobiles in stores, if there are no customers what are the workers supposed to do. Shuffle pieces of paper around to make it look as if they are busy.

[impulse]

26 minutes ago, CharlieKo said:

2, Thai's won't do the jobs the migrant workers do.

Offer them 100,000 baht a month and see if they will. 

 

And if they will, that means the only reason they won't do those jobs is because the availability of cheaper migrant workers drives the wages down.

 

Most people would scrub nasty toilets with a toothbrush if the pay was good enough.  But not for migrant wages.

 

[ChipButty]

I've not seen corruption mentioned maybe he should start with the land departments he will be aware of them places

[lordgrinz]

Since Pheu Thai will have to buy love for their party at this point, things will probably get worse, they have to handout money to every voter they can. Good luck with that, though I doubt it will do anything but sink the country.

[lordgrinz]

1 hour ago, Keep Right said:

Thailand is a hopelessly corrupt country where English competency is severely lacking. I do not see this changing any time soon. No reason for foreign companies to build and invest in a perfidious country with a lack of law enforcement and ethics. 

This is the part I don't understand, I would've have supported Prayut if he just took on one thing that helped the country, say full-speed ahead on support for education and English competency, or maybe total enforcement of traffic laws and safety. I mean make an impact that is remembered, instead he chose the Thai way.....increase corruption, ignore the masses, stomp on anyone in your way, and spit in the face of progress.

[Eric Loh]

History seem to repeat whenever PT form the government. Thaksin’s took over a post 1997 financial meltdown with a big IMF loan overhang in midst of massive unemployment, capitulation of the property industry, SMEs in financial trouble, dwindling of FDI etc. The current economic chronic conditions look similar.
 

No cakewalk for K Sretha and his cabinet. They got the work all cut up to revive the economy and the people want to see quick results that could alleviate their immediate financial problems. I sincerely think that Sretha is the kind of person with the right experience and temperament to be able to steer the economy in the right path Thaksin will be a tremendous aid to him in terms of advise and feedbacks. 

[billd766]

9 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

History seem to repeat whenever PT form the government. Thaksin’s took over a post 1997 financial meltdown with a big IMF loan overhang in midst of massive unemployment, capitulation of the property industry, SMEs in financial trouble, dwindling of FDI etc. The current economic chronic conditions look similar.
 

No cakewalk for K Sretha and his cabinet. They got the work all cut up to revive the economy and the people want to see quick results that could alleviate their immediate financial problems. I sincerely think that Sretha is the kind of person with the right experience and temperament to be able to steer the economy in the right path Thaksin will be a tremendous aid to him in terms of advise and feedbacks. 

Back in 1997 Thaksin and the TRT/PTP did not have a coup government, who had had achieved nothing in 9 years except borrowing vast sums that will have to be repaid by the incoming governments, and the Thai people for generations to come.

[klauskunkel]

Quote

Economic peril poses a greater threat to Srettha’s government than politics

I agree with this headline. Srettha has a loophole guy in his cabinet already, so he should focus on the economy.

[ikke1959]

1 hour ago, CharlieKo said:

You really don't now what you are talking about! The reason Thai's don't do the jobs that the migrant workers do, is 1, The migrant workers get paid less than Thai's. 2, Thai's won't do the jobs the migrant workers do. As for workers on mobiles in stores, if there are no customers what are the workers supposed to do. Shuffle pieces of paper around to make it look as if they are busy.

I know what I am talking about very well..Thai people are too lazy to do job unless they will be paid at least 30K a month.. example try to find someone for an easy job for a few hours or a day.. Nobody will come.. nor me as farang nor for a Thai. Everybody is complaining about it. And in a store there are so many workers with so less knowledge that they could easily get rid of 50% of them and in a store there is always work... My parents had a store too and we were never without doing anything.. But we did not have a cell phone too.... Some shops have already fired some people because the profits went down and now the rest is complaining that they have to work!!!!!! almost no time to check their phone they are saying to us... Just to mention.....

[CharlieKo]

2 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

example try to find someone for an easy job for a few hours or a day..

So you think it would be easier to find someone to do work for a few hours or a day, in other parts of the world? Get real people want full time employment. But you get the staff you are willing to pay for, offer low wages get useless staff. 

[John Drake]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

When other countries like Vietnam and the Philippines become more attractive for manufacturing, foreign investments could divert away from Thailand.

I don't know the United States would choose Thailand over Philippines for anything. Filipinos have widescale use of English, familiarity with the US, a large number living in the US, and the overt tilt of the Philippines from China to the US. 

[hotchilli]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Experts say that 2024 will likely be a down year for the global economy and several macroeconomic issues will likely present themselves to the incoming government.

8 years of nothing form the Junta... that's going to be hard to turn around.

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, CharlieKo said:

As for workers on mobiles in stores, if there are no customers what are the workers supposed to do.

Check inventory, maintain their area, watch over the shop, be alert to customers when they walk in.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

Back in 1997 Thaksin and the TRT/PTP did not have a coup government, who had had achieved nothing in 9 years except borrowing vast sums that will have to be repaid by the incoming governments, and the Thai people for generations to come.

That’s true but the economic challenges are quite similar. One factor for 1997 meltdown was the pegged Baht against USD which was a coup government legacy. Prayut government suffered from his incompetency and also due to the 19 parties coalition government with only a narrow 4 seats majority.. Investors were put off by the political risks. GDP growth were dismal and covid spending came with high economic costs which required more borrowings. If Sretha has a full 4 years term, his team can tackle the challenges and improve the economy. 

[zyphodb]

3 hours ago, Keep Right said:

Thailand is a hopelessly corrupt country where English competency is severely lacking. I do not see this changing any time soon. No reason for foreign companies to build and invest in a perfidious country with a lack of law enforcement and ethics. 

Which make it a haven for investments with dodgy money, surely it's been thriving on this for a long, long time...

[Cake Monster]

5 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

The problem of costs for companies is a bit fake.. Indeed the costs will go up, but than ( I am sorry to say) a few people must be fired. I walk in many stores and i see a lot of people not working but playing their cellphones.. So they don't have anything to do. The productivity will go up if they know when they play on the phone they will get fired.. On the other hand there is so much work in Thailand that a lot of Burmese/Cambodian/Laos /Malaysian people have to come in to do the jobs.. The ones on their cellphones could take those jobs too.. Everybody happy...

The whole issue about raising wages, has to be based on only one Criteria

Higher wages must equal higher productivity

The only way to achieve this is with major Investment in Modern Technology, Automation and hands off work environments.

Sounds great, but how do you 

A) Upskill  mostly poorly Educated population into these rolls

B) What about the people that cannot be upskilled. They cannot just be thrown away. There has to be work and purpose for them also

This whole issue is a massive problem for the Government not least because a huge proportion of the Money earned by Migrant Workers does not reach the Thai Economy

Its remitted back to their Home Countries

 

[ikke1959]

5 hours ago, CharlieKo said:

So you think it would be easier to find someone to do work for a few hours or a day, in other parts of the world? Get real people want full time employment. But you get the staff you are willing to pay for, offer low wages get useless staff. 

In the European community it is easy to find someone who want to do a job.. They are not lazy and the mentality of them is mostly all little bits will help... as here in THailand people don't want to earn 300 THB for a few hours work...they rather have nothing and ask friends and family to support them..

[ikke1959]

3 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

The whole issue about raising wages, has to be based on only one Criteria

Higher wages must equal higher productivity

The only way to achieve this is with major Investment in Modern Technology, Automation and hands off work environments.

Sounds great, but how do you 

A) Upskill  mostly poorly Educated population into these rolls

B) What about the people that cannot be upskilled. They cannot just be thrown away. There has to be work and purpose for them also

This whole issue is a massive problem for the Government not least because a huge proportion of the Money earned by Migrant Workers does not reach the Thai Economy

Its remitted back to their Home Countries

 

Are all Myanmar, Laos. Ca,bodiam people upskilled?? Thai people don't like to work, but like sto pretend they have a lot of money and will borrow from everyone, friends, family, rather than working for it.. I have plenty examples in the family of my partner, in my neighbourhood and people with examples at my work... 

[kickstart]

7 hours ago, billd766 said:

Back in 1997 Thaksin and the TRT/PTP did not have a coup government, who had had achieved nothing in 9 years except borrowing vast sums that will have to be repaid by the incoming governments, and the Thai people for generations to come.

I think you will find it was the Thaksin government that made the final payment back to the IMF after the 1997 crash.

And I think it was Chavalit that was PM when the crash happened, and the IMF said Choen-Lie Pie had to be PM, knowing that the past two PM's Bann-Han, and Chavalit made a Compleat pigs' ear of the job.

[kimamey]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:56 AM, ikke1959 said:

The problem of costs for companies is a bit fake.. Indeed the costs will go up, but than ( I am sorry to say) a few people must be fired. I walk in many stores and i see a lot of people not working but playing their cellphones.. So they don't have anything to do. The productivity will go up if they know when they play on the phone they will get fired.. On the other hand there is so much work in Thailand that a lot of Burmese/Cambodian/Laos /Malaysian people have to come in to do the jobs.. The ones on their cellphones could take those jobs too.. Everybody happy...

Yes there is a problem with over staffing and not only in stores. I wonder what the reason for this is, given the quest for profits. Maybe it's a case of more people at lower wages. That way it's easier to deal with busy periods and any absences. If you get rid of some then the unemployment levels go up which isn't good for politicians, or those who are then out of a job of course. There's also overmanning  in government offices. I had to go with my now wife to, I think it was the Ministry of Interior Affairs, but I may have got the name wrong. It was to get an Affirmation of Freedom to Marry. There were several people we had to see, most of whom seemed to do very little. One woman in a uniform just stamped all our papers without looking at them. She'd done them before I could sit down.

 

As for migrant labour, it seems a good idea but there may be problems. I don't know the situation now, but I think the minimum wages brought in under the Yingluck government were only applied to Thais and not migrants. That probably played well to those who are particularly nationalistic or anti migrant, and looked as if it was helping Thai nationals. Unfortunately that just meant that migrants were cheaper. There may well have been less regulations, such as safety laws to follow. I know some factories were built or moved close to the border to make it easier to employ migrants. Employing Thais, would then be more expensive.

 

My main point in my post was that it seems easy to just raise wages, and that does increase spending power but these things are rarely simple.

Edited September 1, 2023 by kimamey