Baht continues to slide as PM Srettha pushes big-spending capital program to boost foreign tourism

[ChipButty]

  On 10/2/2023 at 3:35 AM, daveAustin said:

Who cares? They don't spend as much.

 

The baht is still 20-30% overpriced... hopefully with this perpetually smiling donkey at the helm, that real price will be realised sooner rather than later.  

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The ones I know do, they are driving the rents up here in Phuket, 

[reefsurfah]

Slide baby slide 

[retarius]

It's official Srettha is an economic ignoramus.

[ChipButty]

  On 10/2/2023 at 4:17 AM, retarius said:

It's official Srettha is an economic ignoramus.

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He's got a lot of condo's to sell in Phuket 

[redwood1]

  On 10/2/2023 at 4:17 AM, retarius said:

It's official Srettha is an economic ignoramus.

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lol......Dont talk about Mr Smilely that way...

[retarius]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:22 AM, ChrisY1 said:

It seems that tourism is the panacea to fix everything here.

Thai exports are tanking and seem to be going nowhere, regardless what is in the media....unemployment is reportedly the lowest and even new vehicle sales are falling globally.

Thailand still believes that the Chinese will save them!

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Yes tourism is indeed a low margin business. You cannot build a successful economy on tourism.....it's an add-on at best. What is it 10%-15% of the economy? It employs a lot of people at very low wages, and that's about it, apart from the hotel owners. The Thailand was humming with high growth, it was manufacturing that was the engine of growth, not tourism. Only when China becomes an export market for Thai manufactured good will we have a strong economy and currency.

I am a beneficiary of the current weakness in the Baht and my income (which is all in dollars) is rising almost as rapidly as inflation. But as someone who lives here, and cares about other poorer people (not selfishly, just myself), I'd far rather see Thailand with a much stronger economy. with less tourism and less agriculture (bigger more efficient farms) and more people employed in factories churning out real stuff that other countries want to buy.

[freeworld]

  On 10/2/2023 at 2:53 AM, wwest5829 said:

I did too on yesterday's Wise transfer, oh wait, it was not 100 baht, it was 100 USD difference so 3300 baht. And that amount I do feel in the monthly budget. I missed 36.86 and did the transfer at 36.52.

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Gee whiz, that is a 34 baht difference.

[flexomike]

  On 10/1/2023 at 11:57 PM, Bangkok Barry said:

The baht is indeed sliding, and I'm ecstatic that yesterday I received 100 baht more when I did my usual monthly transfer from the UK than I did last month, and last month was 100 more than the month before. That 200 baht can buy me a beer in a decent bar - maybe 

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I will be getting my monthly SS deposit tomorrow and it will be at least 4,000 baht more than last month, what are you transferring, 20,000 baht a month?

[Jumbo1968]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:22 AM, ChrisY1 said:

It seems that tourism is the panacea to fix everything here.

Thai exports are tanking and seem to be going nowhere, regardless what is in the media....unemployment is reportedly the lowest and even new vehicle sales are falling globally.

Thailand still believes that the Chinese will save them!

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The Russians saved Thailand/Phuket with the war and people fleeing to avoid conscription.

 

if I remember rightly when Covid stopped all the Tourists due to lockdowns the PM said Thailand doesn’t have to rely on Tourism as it was only a minority of the GDP., Domestic tourism would make the difference up.

[wwest5829]

  On 10/2/2023 at 4:39 AM, freeworld said:

Gee whiz, that is a 34 baht difference.

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I have, evidently failed to communicate with you. I received 3300 baht more on this month’s transfer over last month’s transfer for “long term living” in Thailand (one option for those of us living here on retirement Visas). 

[lopburi3]

  On 10/2/2023 at 4:39 AM, freeworld said:

Gee whiz, that is a 34 baht difference.

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Suspect you forgot the decimal point (.34 baht)?

[BE88]

  On 10/2/2023 at 2:31 AM, Walker88 said:

No government debt of any nation is going to be repaid. Everyone buying bonds knows that. All they expect is that it be serviced, which means paying the due interest and returning capital upon maturity. Most debt is just rolled over, so maturity is just an accounting entry.

 

Debt service as a % of revenue is worst in what country?

 

Japan.

 

It's not even close. Even Greece looks solvent in comparison.

 

The US' advantage remains rule of law. Billions in capital can enter the markets or leave the markets with no difficulty. Can't do that in China. Dollar value is based not on something as meaningless as a metal, but rather the ambition and creativity of the people, who can then be taxed. Nixon realized that, so took the US off the gold standard. As others followed suit, the world saw an era where more people were lifted from poverty than at any time since Oldavai Gorge.

 

Money has always been a confidence game. Money only requires one side of a transaction to believe in it.

 

Will it all collapse one day? Probably, but folks have been predicting that for longer than most people have been alive. No point in preparing for that, because if the dollar or the world's financial system fails, humans return to the Hobbesian world of 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short', which is to say hardly worth living.

 

 

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Could it be that Nixon didn't withdraw the convertibility $ of gold because there was no more gold to sell?

""No public debt of any nation will be repaid. ""This has never happened in history, it always ends very badly.

 

 

 

[Srikcir]

  On 10/2/2023 at 2:10 AM, RichardColeman said:

But that's the point - it isn't being addressed at all ! Continual kicking of the can down the road for future is not servicing it. 

 

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You are expecting a nation of 360 million people with a trillion dollar economy to have zero debt? That's just unreasonable by any economic measure.

The US has never and will never according to its history and its Constitution default in meeting its debt obligations, namely paying interest on US bonds. 

"kicking the (debt) can down the road" is a basic tool of the middle class to purchase what is beyond their immediate cash, ie., home mortgage, auto. It's basic to credit card transactions to defer debt that can be drawn down over time within means of one's current income.

Maybe you are among the 1 percenters fortunate enough to have cash for all your needs. Need a $80,000 USD auto or $1 million USD home - no problem, roll out your bags of cash.

[Kinok Farang]

  On 10/2/2023 at 2:12 AM, SoilSpoil said:

Khao Lak is far from overcrowded.

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Please let it stay like that.

[lordgrinz]

  On 10/2/2023 at 8:50 AM, Srikcir said:

You are expecting a nation of 360 million people with a trillion dollar economy to have zero debt? That's just unreasonable by any economic measure.

The US has never and will never according to its history and its Constitution default in meeting its debt obligations, namely paying interest on US bonds. 

"kicking the (debt) can down the road" is a basic tool of the middle class to purchase what is beyond their immediate cash, ie., home mortgage, auto. It's basic to credit card transactions to defer debt that can be drawn down over time within means of one's current income.

Maybe you are among the 1 percenters fortunate enough to have cash for all your needs. Need a $80,000 USD auto or $1 million USD home - no problem, roll out your bags of cash.

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The problem is the Debt-to-GDP is out of control (hovering around 130%), until it starts shrinking (preferably back to about 60%), the road ahead will not be pretty.

[lopburi3]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:08 PM, lordgrinz said:

The problem is the Debt-to-GDP is out of control (hovering around 130%), until it starts shrinking (preferably back to about 60%), the road ahead will not be pretty.

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Actually US is number one in total debt but not close in Debt to GDP (Japan takes that title at over 250%).

 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt

[lordgrinz]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:42 PM, lopburi3 said:

Actually US is number one in total debt but not close in Debt to GDP (Japan takes that title at over 250%).

 

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-national-debt

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Yes, but look where it has gone in just a few years, it was hovering around 60% for many years, then dramatically went up, then went ballistic the last 3 years, not good! 

[DonniePeverley]

Definatley more chinese tourists here now. 

 

Icon Siam, the bottom where they serve cheap 'street food' meals was packed with Chinese tourists. The big major restaurants, and the actual point of the mall - THE SHOPS they did not venture too. It was straight back into the coach and off they go. 

 

 

[lopburi3]

  On 10/2/2023 at 1:17 PM, lordgrinz said:

Yes, but look where it has gone in just a few years, it was hovering around 60% for many years, then dramatically went up, then went ballistic the last 3 years, not good! 

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But then expect most countries went ballistic during Covid - not a good time for anyone.

[lordgrinz]

  On 10/2/2023 at 1:19 PM, lopburi3 said:

But then expect most countries went ballistic during Covid - not a good time for anyone.

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Ours is self-inflicted, spending money we don't have, and on ridiculously stupid bills passed easily by congress. We need a much higher hurdle for passage of spending bills, like 80% or bills don't pass, plus base any new spending on keeping the Debt-to-GDP under 60%, or again, no new spending allowed....we need to cripple the spendthrifts.

[jvs]

  On 10/2/2023 at 1:30 PM, lordgrinz said:

Ours is self-inflicted, spending money we don't have, and on ridiculously stupid bills passed easily by congress. We need a much higher hurdle for passage of spending bills, like 80% or bills don't pass, plus base any new spending on keeping the Debt-to-GDP under 60%, or again, no new spending allowed....we need to cripple the spendthrifts.

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Stop the spending crazy is easy to do but no one dares to do it!

[Srikcir]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:08 PM, lordgrinz said:

The problem is the Debt-to-GDP is out of control (hovering around 130%), until it starts shrinking (preferably back to about 60%), the road ahead will not be pretty.

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OOC is true for Thailand that has been slow to do major FTA's outside of Southeast Asia and now appears to be more a priority with new government beyond Thailand's traditional political commitments.

The US has trade agreements throughout the world. What country aside from North Korea and Ukraine war trade bans wouldn't want trade with over 300 million consumers within one nation? 

[Dogmatix]

The new airport projects are vital to fill PT coffers.  They did well out of Swampy under Thaksin's watch when contractors complained they demanded 30% commissions for supplying furniture and stuff and contracts for trolleys and bag handling were given overseas companies with Thai shareholders whose stated addresses were abandoned buildings in Bkk.  Now the whole merry go round starts again.

[Sigmund]

With all the immigration hassles for retirement visas, ltr visas, people are trying now to sell away their property and chose another country to spend the winter months.

[jacko45k]

  On 10/2/2023 at 1:37 AM, Srikcir said:

All other units of currency across the globe are worth less than a US dollar.

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Sterling, Kuwaiti Dinar, Euro, to name but a few that  make you wrong!

[mokwit]

  On 10/2/2023 at 3:40 PM, Sigmund said:

With all the immigration hassles for retirement visas, ltr visas, people are trying now to sell away their property and chose another country to spend the winter months.

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As a retirement extension holder I regard myself as a PAYING CUSTOMER not some recipient of Thai largess required to be grateful supplicant. The FACT is that Thailand only issues visas for the perceived benefit to Thailand, in this case money being brought into the country and spent. 

[ChipButty]

According to another news outlet, for the month of September just over 40,000 Russians landed in Phuket alone

[Bangkok Barry]

  On 10/2/2023 at 3:52 AM, lopburi3 said:

You must not be sending much - I send $2,500 start of each month and today is 4,000 baht more than last month with same fees.

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I certainly don't need $2,500 a month to live on. Not even $1,000. Depends where you live and if you own a house, and so on.

[Bangkok Barry]

  On 10/2/2023 at 4:57 AM, flexomike said:

I will be getting my monthly SS deposit tomorrow and it will be at least 4,000 baht more than last month, what are you transferring, 20,000 baht a month?

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Around 26,000. Perfectly adequate for me and wife and six dogs, covering electric, car expenses, food including expat stuff, IPTV etc. More very occasionally, like just spent 28,000 on a new aircon unit to replace a 10 year old unit that was failing.

[Captain Monday]

  On 10/2/2023 at 12:24 AM, RichardColeman said:

They keep saying that , but in reality the baht is still 0.25 lower than the rate I sent it here last month !

 

Probably true against the dollar (as all currencies), but I would wait for that to come crashing down in years to come with the US debt mountain. Documentary yesterday on burgers reaching $15 at McD and ONE hash brown 2,99 !!!

 

 

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Been hearing about the impending Dollar crash for my entire adult life. Other than the late 2000s lows, never felt it on our travels.  Think I have it figured out.
 

There appears there is no “better” alternative.