Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Trippy]

Bottom line is, if arabs lay down their arms, we have peace, if Israel lays down their arms, we have extinction of israelis. 

[MikeandDow]

Just now, Trippy said:

Bottom line is, if arabs lay down their arms, we have peace, if Israel lays down their arms, we have extinction of israelis. 

very simplistic view  which will never happen

[Trippy]

5 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

very simplistic view  which will never happen

Is it true, or not?

[MikeandDow]

Just now, Trippy said:

Is it true, or not?

It will not happen  so no

[novacova]

35 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

some good comments at the end of the article but nothing really new

Of course it’s nothing new though certainly ignored. The tribal dialogue on the subject has been going on for eons, an ideological divide. Though I’ll admit to being foolish at times of expectations and hope for the best as certain groups in the US, who have been and are being played by Persia and some Arab states. But make no mistake, those states that are gaming the West and have a patient methodological long term goal…and eventually include Turkey. The arguments of agreements disagreements, if this that and the other, could have should have would have, only if, if we do this they’ll be nice, is delusional and just playing into their game of their ultimate goal.

[MikeandDow]

Just now, novacova said:

Of course it’s nothing new though certainly ignored. The tribal dialogue on the subject has been going on for eons, an ideological divide. Though I’ll admit to being foolish at times of expectations and hope for the best as certain groups in the US, who have been and are being played by Persia and some Arab states. But make no mistake, those states that are gaming the West and have a patient methodological long term goal…and eventually include Turkey. The arguments of agreements disagreements, if this that and the other, could have should have would have, only if, if we do this they’ll be nice, is delusional and just playing into their game of their ultimate goal.

good comment

[Morch]

1 hour ago, MikeandDow said:

you forget to metion that Not all Arab nation attened and Hamas fundamentally dissagrees 

I did not 'forget' (and actually discussed this on parallel and past topics). It is simply immaterial to the comments made. If someone wishes to say 'the Muslims' (as in implying all Muslims) have no interest in this, then he'd have to show all Muslim nations (or even people) are/were against it. Basically, quite opposite to what you just posted above. Not sure if your failure to grasp this is language related or agenda based, but anyway, you are incorrect.

[MikeandDow]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

I did not 'forget' (and actually discussed this on parallel and past topics). It is simply immaterial to the comments made. If someone wishes to say 'the Muslims' (as in implying all Muslims) have no interest in this, then he'd have to show all Muslim nations (or even people) are/were against it. Basically, quite opposite to what you just posted above. Not sure if your failure to grasp this is language related or agenda based, but anyway, you are incorrect.

it is a Fact That All Arab nations did not attend you said you had read the agreement but clearly you did not, " It is simply immaterial to the comments"   seems your stock stament, that when posts disagees with you   it is also called self opinion bigotry, typical TROLL

Edited October 15, 2023 by MikeandDow

[Jeff the Chef]

There will never be peace in this world and I'll kill anyone who disagrees with me.

[metisdead]

A post with content from an unapproved social media site contravening our Forum Rules and the replies have been removed:

 

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[Jeff the Chef]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

Yawn. Obviously, other posters are entitled to their views. The same way I'm entitled to disagree with them. Doubt you didn't get it even before your original comment.

 

You've posted inaccurate, untrue stuff yourself, not to mention nonsense posts. Your issue with 'misinformation masquerading as truth' is quite obviously one sided.

Whatever, your high and mightiest, now go away and stop bothering me.

There will never be peace in this world.

[Morch]

17 minutes ago, MikeandDow said:

it is a Fact That All Arab nations did not attend you said you had read the agreement but clearly you did not, " It is simply immaterial to the comments"   seems your stock stament, that when posts disagees with you   it is also called self opinion bigotry, typical TROLL

Ok, it's a language/logic issue. Thanks for making it clear.

[Morch]

7 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Whatever, your high and mightiest, now go away and stop bothering me.

There will never be peace in this world.

You're welcome to stop responding to my posts or put me on ignore. You won't hurt my feelings.

[MikeandDow]

Just now, Jeff the Chef said:

Whatever, your high and mightiest, now go away and stop bothering me.

There will never be peace in this world.

The guy is a troll spoiling the disscussion

[Jeff the Chef]

7 minutes ago, Morch said:

You're welcome to stop responding to my posts or put me on ignore. You won't hurt my feelings.

Where's the comedy factor in doing that, you occasionally come out with an absolute gem. 

There will never be peace in this world.

[Yellowtail]

32 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Where's the comedy factor in doing that, you occasionally come out with an absolute gem. 

There will never be peace in this world.

That's all you have, really? 

 

Weak. 

[rickudon]

So much disinformation and hatred on this thread. Yes, the Hamas massacre is absolutely shocking and yes, It would be best if Hamas was totally destroyed. But you have to ask yourself, what are the underlying causes of this act?

 

Israel has been very good in the past as promoting itself as the good guy. The real truths seldom make it to the everyday media. People shouldn't just post their gut feelings WITHOUT researching the background and causes of the conflict. 

 

The west was quick to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and highlight all the human rights abuses, or complain about ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabak. israeli human rights abuses and ethnic cleansing have been going on for years, just done at a low tempo so it doesn't get much publicity. When you keep pushing, eventually you push back, even though you know you cannot win. The alternative is just give up and die. Some prefer to die fighting. Find out what has been happening for the last 120 years (or even start 2,000 years ago), and then post.

[JensenZ]

On 10/13/2023 at 11:47 AM, traveller101 said:

Since Hamas live amongst the 2.4 Million Palestimians in the Gaza strip, your request to 'exterminate Hamas' can only be realised in exterminating the whole population living in Gaza.

You're ok with that scenario?

 

Hamas are ok with it. Their attack on Israel was well planned, and they knew exactly how Israel would respond. it was part of their master plan and the death of their own people was part of it.

[Morch]

7 minutes ago, rickudon said:

So much disinformation and hatred on this thread. Yes, the Hamas massacre is absolutely shocking and yes, It would be best if Hamas was totally destroyed. But you have to ask yourself, what are the underlying causes of this act?

 

Israel has been very good in the past as promoting itself as the good guy. The real truths seldom make it to the everyday media. People shouldn't just post their gut feelings WITHOUT researching the background and causes of the conflict. 

 

The west was quick to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and highlight all the human rights abuses, or complain about ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabak. israeli human rights abuses and ethnic cleansing have been going on for years, just done at a low tempo so it doesn't get much publicity. When you keep pushing, eventually you push back, even though you know you cannot win. The alternative is just give up and die. Some prefer to die fighting. Find out what has been happening for the last 120 years (or even start 2,000 years ago), and then post.

Most previous rounds of fighting between Israel and the Hamas, saw a similar pattern: Hamas attack, Israel responds. Initial mild condemnation of Hamas, with partial international participation, getting more vocal and changing to criticize Israel.

 

This time is different - at least with the almost wall to wall condemnation of Hamas, and the relative break Israel gets to conduct it's response (the trend will shift, but slower than past times).

 

I think this represents a realization that this was no ordinary attack, not yet another round of fighting, not something which could be answered by the usual means. A whole lot of foreign (or dual citizenship) citizens were abducted or killed (last tally is over 250). That makes more of an international impact, even without the gruesome manner of the attack.

 

This was Israel's 9/11. Not just another day in the Middle East. The response would be proportionate to that.

 

Now, a whole lot can be said about Israel. No angels, sure. But they don't go for the sort of thing done by Hamas on this attack. This goes way beyond what's even remotely acceptable. It's not same same.

[Jingthing]

16 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

Hamas are ok with it. Their attack on Israel was well planned, and they knew exactly how Israel would respond. it was part of their master plan and the death of their own people was part of it.

Hamas definitely has no regard for the lives of Jews or Arabs. Their focus is death.

[MikeandDow]

Just now, Morch said:

Most previous rounds of fighting between Israel and the Hamas, saw a similar pattern: Hamas attack, Israel responds. Initial mild condemnation of Hamas, with partial international participation, getting more vocal and changing to criticize Israel.

 

This time is different - at least with the almost wall to wall condemnation of Hamas, and the relative break Israel gets to conduct it's response (the trend will shift, but slower than past times).

 

I think this represents a realization that this was no ordinary attack, not yet another round of fighting, not something which could be answered by the usual means. A whole lot of foreign (or dual citizenship) citizens were abducted or killed (last tally is over 250). That makes more of an international impact, even without the gruesome manner of the attack.

 

This was Israel's 9/11. Not just another day in the Middle East. The response would be proportionate to that.

 

Now, a whole lot can be said about Israel. No angels, sure. But they don't go for the sort of thing done by Hamas on this attack. This goes way beyond what's even remotely acceptable. It's not same same.

good post

[MikeandDow]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Hamas definitely has no regard for the lives of Jews or Arabs. Their focus is death.

correct,  i belive Hamas want a blood bath and try to bring in hezbollah, lebanon and the rest of the Arab nations for a full on war

[JensenZ]

On 10/13/2023 at 8:28 AM, novacova said:

Unfortunately this has the propensity to turn into a regional conflict very rapidly with Iran, Lebanon and Syria. Already Israel has taken preemptive action on airstrips in Syria and may implement such action in Iran. Let’s hope Syria doesn’t use their chemical weapons, that would reciprocate an ultimate response from Israel and in turn Israel would most likely lose any support from all nations.

I have a more pessimistic view on what is likely to happen. Recently word from Iran was that if Israel starts a land invasion, it will cause an "earthquake". Iran has missiles capable of striking Israel. A land invasion will start soon. The US currently has one carrier strike group stationed off the coast of Israel with another arriving in a few days (I believe it takes 8 days for a carrier to travel from the US to the Eastern Mediterranean).

 

With the US heavily engaged in Ukraine, and possibly soon in Israel, there's a perfect opportunity for China to invade Taiwan. This is how world wars start.

[JensenZ]

4 hours ago, MikeandDow said:

correct,  i belive Hamas want a blood bath and try to bring in hezbollah, lebanon and the rest of the Arab nations for a full on war

They don't have to try to bring in hezbollah... there has already been an exchange of missiles.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, JensenZ said:

Hamas are ok with it. Their attack on Israel was well planned, and they knew exactly how Israel would respond. it was part of their master plan and the death of their own people was part of it.

I will not disagree with that. Arab terrorists have apparently killed more Arabs than westerners in their decades long campaign, so why would they hold back now?

However, israel seems to be playing by their playbook and is alienating western once supporters, never mind the millions of Muslims around the world wanting revenge on israel.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, JensenZ said:

They don't have to try to bring in hezbollah... there has already been an exchange of missiles.

Yes, the conflict has expanded to the northern border, and Iran is threatening to get involved.

[MikeandDow]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Yes, the conflict has expanded to the northern border, and Iran is threatening to get involved.

yes correct  in my opinion if Iran gets involved you will see the us and uk get involved  it will be another Iraq

[Morch]

17 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I will not disagree with that. Arab terrorists have apparently killed more Arabs than westerners in their decades long campaign, so why would they hold back now?

However, israel seems to be playing by their playbook and is alienating western once supporters, never mind the millions of Muslims around the world wanting revenge on israel.

 Obviously, Israel got other priorities right now.

[Yellowtail]

37 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I will not disagree with that. Arab terrorists have apparently killed more Arabs than westerners in their decades long campaign, so why would they hold back now?

However, israel seems to be playing by their playbook and is alienating western once supporters, never mind the millions of Muslims around the world wanting revenge on israel.

I doubt very much Israel is alienating any western supporters. I would bet the if anything they have gained support. The hard left/press (redundant) may be claiming their support is dwindling, but they mostly never had any. 

 

If Israel were playing by hamas rules, Gaza would be a rubbish heap by now. 

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, MikeandDow said:

yes correct  in my opinion if Iran gets involved you will see the us and uk get involved  it will be another Iraq

Meaning Iran probably won't get directly involved.