Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[george]

ASEAN NOW is not really the first with this news, or insight, but it is still worth repeating.

BANGKOK: — There will be a major layoff of personnel on the automotive workshop side in the future, whether car manufacturers want it or not - but there will also be opportunities for high wages and specialized services for those who educate themselves and dare to invest.

 

The electric car fleet is growing and it is at the expense of fossil-fueled vehicles. As is well known, an electric car does not require regular basic service, but can travel much longer distances without having to visit a workshop.

Electric cars do not need regular oil changes, refilling of adblue, spark plug changes or exhaust system replacement, and although electric cars are not really fault-free, workshop visits are much less common than for traditional vehicles. If you pull it hard, it is the brakes, wheel suspension, cabin filters and wiper blades that the electric car needs, even if there are of course individual exceptions.

This will inevitably lead to "low-skilled" labor that today works with simpler oil and spark plug changes will have to fight for an ever-decreasing pie. We also know that when vehicles pass 13-14 years, the willingness to pay decreases, which will further reduce the customer base.

However, there is salvation, and that is specialized labor. For 20-30 years, cars have become increasingly computerized, and this requires a new type of mechanic who not only replaces parts, but has the ability to make deeper analyzes and more advanced troubleshooting.

If you want to be successful in the future, you cannot be an "all-car workshop" that lives on oil changes and brake jobs, because then the customer base will disappear sooner or later - the only way to create profitability in the company is specialization and expertise within its niche (this reasoning applies primarily to independent workshops or other brand-independent chains and not brand-bound chains that also receive a lot of warranty and recall work).

What do you think? Will we see a layoff in the automotive workshop sector in the next 15 years?

Here are some of the key points from the article:

 * Electric cars require less maintenance than traditional cars, which will lead to layoffs in the automotive workshop sector.
 * Specialized mechanics will still be in demand, as electric cars are becoming increasingly complex.
 * Independent workshops will need to specialize in order to survive.

 

What do you think about the future of the automotive workshop sector?

 

— ASEAN NOW 2024-03-15
 

[John Drake]

4 minutes ago, george said:

Electric cars require less maintenance than traditional cars, which will lead to layoffs in the automotive workshop sector.

 

Brakes, too?

[Sigmund]

Maintenance is less on electric cars for sure. But the price tag to get it maintained will increase for the owner. Thus, it will hit back on sales and people will stick to their fossil run cars as long as they can.

[safarimike11]

12 minutes ago, george said:

ASEAN NOW is not really the first with this news, or insight, but it is still worth repeating.

BANGKOK: — There will be a major layoff of personnel on the automotive workshop side in the future, whether car manufacturers want it or not - but there will also be opportunities for high wages and specialized services for those who educate themselves and dare to invest.

 

The electric car fleet is growing and it is at the expense of fossil-fueled vehicles. As is well known, an electric car does not require regular basic service, but can travel much longer distances without having to visit a workshop.

Electric cars do not need regular oil changes, refilling of adblue, spark plug changes or exhaust system replacement, and although electric cars are not really fault-free, workshop visits are much less common than for traditional vehicles. If you pull it hard, it is the brakes, wheel suspension, cabin filters and wiper blades that the electric car needs, even if there are of course individual exceptions.

This will inevitably lead to "low-skilled" labor that today works with simpler oil and spark plug changes will have to fight for an ever-decreasing pie. We also know that when vehicles pass 13-14 years, the willingness to pay decreases, which will further reduce the customer base.

However, there is salvation, and that is specialized labor. For 20-30 years, cars have become increasingly computerized, and this requires a new type of mechanic who not only replaces parts, but has the ability to make deeper analyzes and more advanced troubleshooting.

If you want to be successful in the future, you cannot be an "all-car workshop" that lives on oil changes and brake jobs, because then the customer base will disappear sooner or later - the only way to create profitability in the company is specialization and expertise within its niche (this reasoning applies primarily to independent workshops or other brand-independent chains and not brand-bound chains that also receive a lot of warranty and recall work).

What do you think? Will we see a layoff in the automotive workshop sector in the next 15 years?

Here are some of the key points from the article:

 * Electric cars require less maintenance than traditional cars, which will lead to layoffs in the automotive workshop sector.
 * Specialized mechanics will still be in demand, as electric cars are becoming increasingly complex.
 * Independent workshops will need to specialize in order to survive.

 

What do you think about the future of the automotive workshop sector?

 

— ASEAN NOW 2024-03-15
 

What's a spark plug?

[Korat Kiwi]

There is the beginnings of a backlash in many countries already. 

 

Chinese taxi companies that put big dollars into a complete overhaul are finding no resale in used EVs. 

 

Power prices are rising and some countries are introducing road user charges for EVs. 

 

So all is not as some people paint it. 

 

Battery replacement is also another big cost.  7 years life on 1st Gen EVs.  I feel for those poor suckers. 

 

I think in the future EVs will take over,  but not at this moment.  Too many unknowns 

[vinny41]

Thailand Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 20,493,253 Unit in Feb 2024 excluding motorcycles

if you include motorcycles the total would be closer to 44 million

Once you exclude commercial and agricultural vehicles  that leaves approx 12.5 million vehicles on the road

remove all the EV registered between  January 2020 and 31st January 2024 approx 102,090 or in % terms 0.8% so approx 12.4 million ice vehicles registered on the road January 2024

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/number-of-registered-vehicles#:~:text=Thailand

The figures can be found on the internet unfortunately from media links that are not allowed on these forums

 

 

[brianthainess]

1 hour ago, george said:

However, there is salvation, and that is specialized labor. For 20-30 years, cars have become increasingly computerized, and this requires a new type of mechanic who not only replaces parts, but has the ability to make deeper analyzes and more advanced troubleshooting

Another rip off by the manufactures as in Thailand it seems only they can get into the cars diagnostic computer and you have to pay there rip off prices for parts. Hopefully in the future in Thailand other workshops will learn how to use there own "Box' to diagnose.

[eisfeld]

24 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

Another rip off by the manufactures as in Thailand it seems only they can get into the cars diagnostic computer and you have to pay there rip off prices for parts. Hopefully in the future in Thailand other workshops will learn how to use there own "Box' to diagnose.

 

What does that have to do with Thailand and why is it a ripoff? That's been standard practice for many years now world-wide. It takes a while but eventually independent workshops also get access in most cases.

[JBChiangRai]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Brakes, too?

 

Brakes can last the lifetime of the EV, it rarely uses the brakes, instead turning the kinetic energy of movement back into stored energy in the battery instead of heat as in a legacy vehicle.

 

1 hour ago, Korat Kiwi said:

 

 

Battery replacement is also another big cost.  7 years life on 1st Gen EVs.  I feel for those poor suckers. 

 

 

Typical battery life in forecasted to be 18-20 years, eg longer than the life of the vehicle.

[Celsius]

I am in Canada right now and EV is dead, save for occasional Tesla. 

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, george said:

What do you think about the future of the automotive workshop sector?

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

[Ben Zioner]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Brakes, too?

Yes, if an EV recuperates recuperates energy when braking this will result in less wear on the pads.

[Ben Zioner]

29 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

ICE and VHS same same.

[findlay13]

9 hours ago, eisfeld said:

 

What does that have to do with Thailand and why is it a ripoff? That's been standard practice for many years now world-wide. It takes a while but eventually independent workshops also get access in most cases.

Yep, nothing to do with Thailand .My friend runs a car workshop in Australia and has had to request customers take their cars to specific dealers[BMW is one] as they cannot get access to the codes. Certain codes on my 2019 Triumph 1200 cannot be cleared with a mate's code reader[which cost 8K] but need to go to the dealship.

Edited March 15 by findlay13

[Ralf001]

10 hours ago, brianthainess said:

Another rip off by the manufactures as in Thailand it seems only they can get into the cars diagnostic computer and you have to pay there rip off prices for parts. Hopefully in the future in Thailand other workshops will learn how to use there own "Box' to diagnose.

hahahaha, how delusional are you !

[MangoKorat]

9 hours ago, eisfeld said:

That's been standard practice for many years now world-wide. It takes a while but eventually independent workshops also get access in most cases.

Not quite worldwide. In the UK and I believe the EU, manufacturers have to make access to diagnostic systems available by law.  Granted, that access is basic with some areas of detail only accessible by manufacturers software but is big business so software companies get around it fairly quickly.

 

 

[MangoKorat]

25 minutes ago, findlay13 said:

Certain codes on my 2019 Triumph 1200 cannot be cleared with a mate's code reader[which cost 8K] but need to go to the dealship.

The availability of non-manufacturer software and the scope of what it can do depends on the popularity of the model. All software can be 'broken in to' but it has to be worthwhile for the software manufacturer.

 

Some manufacturers software has been hacked and copied and is available either freely or cheaply on the web.  I can buy a copy of my Kawasaki's diagnostic programme and the cable to connect into the diagnostic port, very cheaply on the web for use on a laptop. The bad news for you may be that there are not millions of Triumph 1200's out there.

 

Do an online search for your particular model.

Edited March 15 by MangoKorat

[sirineou]

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

You need to stop thinking 

[Denim]

11 hours ago, Korat Kiwi said:

Battery replacement is also another big cost.  

 

More wear on tyres also.

 

I think you are correct. To many unknowns at the moment .

 

Was a time putting lead in petrol was seen as a positive thing.

 

IMO , hybrids are a much better option.

[Henryford]

Maybe they could retrain as firemen. There will be a big demand to put out all the EV fires.

[JBChiangRai]

9 hours ago, Celsius said:

I am in Canada right now and EV is dead, save for occasional Tesla. 

 

Nonsense.

 

(source Copilot AI, question "how many ev's were sold in canada in 2023")

 

In 2023, Canada achieved a significant milestone in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Approximately 184,578 zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) were registered, accounting for 10.8% of newly registered vehicles. This marks the first time the 10% mark has been surpassed, according to Statistics Canada data. A “zero-emission” vehicle (ZEV) is either all-electric or benefits from a plug-in hybrid configuration¹.

Interestingly, nearly half of all electric vehicles were registered in either Quebec or British Columbia. These provinces continue to lead the way in promoting sustainable transportation choices¹.

The growth in EV sales is encouraging, and it reflects consumers’ increasing interest in cleaner and more efficient mobility options. As the EV market continues to evolve, we can expect further advancements and greater adoption of electric vehicles in the coming years²¹.

[JBChiangRai]

7 minutes ago, Henryford said:

Maybe they could retrain as firemen. There will be a big demand to put out all the EV fires.

 

You mean those fires that are between 10 and 140 times less likely than with ICE Vehicles? 

 

Looks like those firemen might be standing around twiddling their thumbs!

[JBChiangRai]

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

 

29 minutes ago, sirineou said:

You need to stop thinking 

 

Clearly, he already did.

[sirineou]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

Clearly, he already did.

I love a good  comeback  

[Muhendis]

11 hours ago, brianthainess said:

Another rip off by the manufactures as in Thailand it seems only they can get into the cars diagnostic computer and you have to pay there rip off prices for parts. Hopefully in the future in Thailand other workshops will learn how to use there own "Box' to diagnose.

Ah Yes.

They'll be the ones with the "Made in China" sticker on the back.

[Classic Ray]

In low income/no road salt countries like Thailand, people will hang on to their ICE vehicles as long as they can. Governments cannot afford to implement scrappage schemes and there are plenty of 30/40 year old vehicles still in use.

 

Charging infrastructure coverage will be patchy and maintained poorly like the rest of the infrastructure. 
 

Whilst there are markets like this, car manufacturers and parts suppliers will continue to supply the demand.

 

I cannot see significant change in the next 20 years, especially when all the Chinese EVs start falling to pieces.

 

ICE workshop jobs are safe.

[Muhendis]

10 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Brakes can last the lifetime of the EV, it rarely uses the brakes, instead turning the kinetic energy of movement back into stored energy in the battery instead of heat as in a legacy vehicle.

 

 

Typical battery life in forecasted to be 18-20 years, eg longer than the life of the vehicle.

This is right but the unmentioned caveat is the length of journey between charges becomes less and less over the years.

Lithium ion batteries, like all other chemistries, will fade.

Keeping the batteries fully charged in high ambient temperatures they fade quicker.

Trying to charge them in very low ambient temperatures will destroy them quickly.

 

[Celsius]

4 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Nonsense.

 

(source Copilot AI, question "how many ev's were sold in canada in 2023")

 

In 2023, Canada achieved a significant milestone in electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Approximately 184,578 zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) were registered, accounting for 10.8% of newly registered vehicles. This marks the first time the 10% mark has been surpassed, according to Statistics Canada data. A “zero-emission” vehicle (ZEV) is either all-electric or benefits from a plug-in hybrid configuration¹.

Interestingly, nearly half of all electric vehicles were registered in either Quebec or British Columbia. These provinces continue to lead the way in promoting sustainable transportation choices¹.

The growth in EV sales is encouraging, and it reflects consumers’ increasing interest in cleaner and more efficient mobility options. As the EV market continues to evolve, we can expect further advancements and greater adoption of electric vehicles in the coming years²¹.

 

Sounds like TAT

 

you nonsense

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10162385/electric-vehicles-ev-use-autotrader/

[JBChiangRai]

4 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

Sounds like TAT

 

you nonsense

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10162385/electric-vehicles-ev-use-autotrader/

 

No report studying people with polls etc is more valid than the government produced data, 2023 figures for EV registrations are up nearly 50% on 2022.

 

and "Autotrader"? Really?

[Celsius]

4 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

No report studying people with polls etc is more valid than the government produced data, 2023 figures for EV registrations are up nearly 50% on 2022.

 

and "Autotrader"? Really?

 

ChatGPT

 

Really?