Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[JBChiangRai]

3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

it was clearly stated in the article by this guy 

 we believe that the Thai government will most likely miss its 1.123 million zero-emission vehicles target by 2030,” says Hirotaka Uchida, Head of Arthur D. Little Thailand, Automotive and Manufacturing in Southeast Asia Pacific.

Normally as a rule Most Government's incurred slippage when they try to enforce a target that the majority of the public are not signed up to

Every country adopts measures to protect their own  local auto manufacturing base hence any country that wants to export cars to Thailand with the exception of China is subject to import tariffs on between 40-80%

That article was also biased, they incorrectly gave the price of the chiefest EV versus the price of the cheapest ICE vehicle.

 

Everyone, including the author of that article is entitled to their opinion, but in my opinion, they are wrong and biased.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

That article was also biased, they incorrectly gave the price of the chiefest EV versus the price of the cheapest ICE vehicle.

 

Everyone, including the author of that article is entitled to their opinion, but in my opinion, they are wrong and biased.

And in my opinion its you that is wrong  and you should  provide evidence to support your claim that the author is biased just you posting on this forum is not  evidence  that she is biased

you don't seem to understand 2035 is a target date not set it stone and can be changed if required just like when the UK pushed back from 2030 to 2035 for Petrol and Diesel while Hybrid remains unchanged at the moment as that was always 2035

2030 dates were set before Covid if there are further key worldwide components shortages that will push back the 2035 dates

The plan to ban new diesel and petrol cars was initially set to begin in 2040 by the then environmental secretary. The initiative was later brought forward to 2030, and then ultimately delayed to 2035.

Sales of hybrid vehicles will also be banned from this date.

https://pod-point.com/guides/2035-diesel-and-petrol-car-ban-in-the-uk-everything-you-need-to-know#:~:text=The plan to ban new,be banned from this date.

 

[Startmeup]

On 3/15/2024 at 7:01 PM, Sigmund said:

Maintenance is less on electric cars for sure. But the price tag to get it maintained will increase for the owner. Thus, it will hit back on sales and people will stick to their fossil run cars as long as they can.

Hybrid sales are rocketing and EV sales are softening. Just like Toyota said years ago hybrids are the smart option for most people and other manufacturers are realising that. 

https://news.yahoo.com/toyota-surprising-explanation-not-selling-195000892.html

 

https://autos.yahoo.com/why-toyota-isnt-rushing-sell-154000759.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3MuY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJvkRBGQTGXenz8UyMDH5fAKwrWjRtCSoSYEvMWqZBLrV9rJ9EbRItjeEf59WjJ0mJ089k04lEgrL-837QxrOdZSIX1rZhK0yoyevlUv53BP_a44Ydt6Mcfw4_EMrYmGsv2uHKB-hww3AtCu-9XNyytvumUnAMfAear420Q4hsSN&guccounter=2
 

 

Almost all EV manufacturers are losing money on EVs and are backtracking. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-hits-cars-returns-forecast-inflation-supply-chain-costs-bite-2024-02-22/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/apple-cancels-work-on-electric-car-shifts-team-to-generative-ai

The only place producing EVs that are making any money is Tesla and some China manufacturers many of which are hugely subsidized. If electric vehicle mandates that have been talked about across western countries are implementing then the whole car industry will be crushed so all those will be quietly backtracked (another political <deleted>show) possibly in favour of hybrid mandates. 

[eisfeld]

9 minutes ago, Startmeup said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-hits-cars-returns-forecast-inflation-supply-chain-costs-bite-2024-02-22/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/apple-cancels-work-on-electric-car-shifts-team-to-generative-ai

The only place producing EVs that are making any money is Tesla and some China manufacturers many of which are hugely subsidized. If electric vehicle mandates that have been talked about across western countries are implementing then the whole car industry will be crushed so all those will be quietly backtracked (another political <deleted>show) possibly in favour of hybrid mandates. 

 

The links you provded do not support what you said. Mercedes is still ramping up their EV production and plans to sell half of their cars as EVs in a few years. Apple cancelled the project not because it is an EV but because they tried to build an autonomous vehicle and realized AI isn't there yet - by a long shot.

[Startmeup]

3 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

The links you provded do not support what you said. Mercedes is still ramping up their EV production and plans to sell half of their cars as EVs in a few years. Apple cancelled the project not because it is an EV but because they tried to build an autonomous vehicle and realized AI isn't there yet - by a long shot.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-automakers-race-build-more-hybrids-ev-sales-slow-2024-03-15/

 

U.S. sales of hybrids grew five times faster than EV sales in February, Morgan Stanley said.

[Stevey]

What are you talking about ? I’m not wearing a Hat !! 

[Sqoop]

I didn't see EV depreciation and possible negative equity mentioned here. 

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, Sqoop said:

I didn't see EV depreciation and possible negative equity mentioned here. 

 

BYD guarantee their entire drive train includign battery for 8 years. How much is an equivalent priced ICE car worth at 8 years as a proportion of its original price?

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, eisfeld said:

 

The links you provded do not support what you said. Mercedes is still ramping up their EV production and plans to sell half of their cars as EVs in a few years. Apple cancelled the project not because it is an EV but because they tried to build an autonomous vehicle and realized AI isn't there yet - by a long shot.

CEO Ola Kaellenius cautioned towards the end of last year that even in Europe, sales would likely not be all-electric by 2030, with battery-powered cars currently making up just 11% of total sales, and 19% including hybrids.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-hits-cars-returns-forecast-inflation-supply-chain-costs-bite-2024-02-22/

[eisfeld]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

CEO Ola Kaellenius cautioned towards the end of last year that even in Europe, sales would likely not be all-electric by 2030, with battery-powered cars currently making up just 11% of total sales, and 19% including hybrids.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-hits-cars-returns-forecast-inflation-supply-chain-costs-bite-2024-02-22/

 

You claimed "Almost all EV manufacturers are losing money on EVs and are backtracking." and none of your links support anything like that.

[vinny41]

25 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

You claimed "Almost all EV manufacturers are losing money on EVs and are backtracking." and none of your links support anything like that.

Wrong I never posted anything that your quoting

[JBChiangRai]

It is not true to say that Hybrid sales are increasing and EV sales are softening, actually the reverse is true.

 

I asked CoPilot to compare hybrid and pure EV, it's reply is biased towards the Former Colonies but this is what it said

 

1. Hybrid Cars:

   • In 2021, hybrid vehicles accounted for 5.5% of the light vehicle market in the U.S¹.
   • In 2022, U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles reached a record high, with 801,550 units sold, representing 5% of total U.S. light vehicle sales ².

2. Pure Electric Vehicles (EVs):

   • In Q4 2023, fully-electric vehicles (BEVs) achieved an all-time high market share of 8.1% in the U.S³.
   • Throughout 2023, a total of 1,189,051 electric vehicles were sold in the U.S., surpassing the one-million mark for the first time ³.
   • Tesla, a major player in the EV market, maintained a 50% share of the EV market in Q4 2023, down from its peak of 79% in 2020 ³.
   • Other automakers like Ford and Hyundai-Kia have also made significant strides, with the F-150 Lightning being the best-selling electric truck in America ³.

In summary, while hybrid cars continue to hold a steady market share, the adoption of pure EVs is growing rapidly, driven by environmental awareness and technological advancements. 🌿🚗🔌

[JBChiangRai]

8 hours ago, vinny41 said:

And in my opinion its you that is wrong  and you should  provide evidence to support your claim that the author is biased just you posting on this forum is not  evidence  that she is biased

you don't seem to understand 2035 is a target date not set it stone and can be changed if required just like when the UK pushed back from 2030 to 2035 for Petrol and Diesel while Hybrid remains unchanged at the moment as that was always 2035

2030 dates were set before Covid if there are further key worldwide components shortages that will push back the 2035 dates

The plan to ban new diesel and petrol cars was initially set to begin in 2040 by the then environmental secretary. The initiative was later brought forward to 2030, and then ultimately delayed to 2035.

Sales of hybrid vehicles will also be banned from this date.

https://pod-point.com/guides/2035-diesel-and-petrol-car-ban-in-the-uk-everything-you-need-to-know#:~:text=The plan to ban new,be banned from this date.

 

 

Here is her statement...

Furthermore, notwithstanding the government efforts towards promoting EV vehicles, the adoption rate has been low, and the customers still favour ICE vehicles in Thailand. Between January to September 2023, Thailand’s total vehicle sales were 500,942 units, wherein the EV share was 10.05%. While the number depicted a major growth from 9,729 EVs sold in the same period last year, the market share compared to ICE vehicles remains quite low. Moreover, the price gap between even the cheapest EV car model and the cheapest ICE car model is massive. The cheapest EV car model costs about $22,800 (post-subsidy), while ICE car models are available starting from about $9,000.

 

I don't think it's valid to say the adoption rate has been low when it increased over 600%, but the kicker is the prices she quoted, the cheapest EV post subsidy is not $22,800.

 

If that isn't biased then I don't know what is.

 

Any think tank saying that the government will miss it's targets is nothing more than theory and fluff until the evidence is clear, an increase in one year of over 600% adoption is evidence contra to her statements.

 

If it were to continue growing at 600% then the timescale would be a lot shorter than 2035.

 

[Gweiloman]

20 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Only till the government brings in road user charges, and with a resale value of $0 will they be gloating when it comes time to buy a new car?

This is Thailand. I doubt there will ever be a road user charge for EVs. The government won’t know how to devise such a scheme or how to implement it, ever. They can’t even phase traffic lights properly.

 

A resale value of 0 for EVs are an ICE owners wet dream. Never gonna happen either.

[JBChiangRai]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

This is Thailand. I doubt there will ever be a road user charge for EVs. The government won’t know how to devise such a scheme or how to implement it, ever. They can’t even phase traffic lights properly.

 

A resale value of 0 for EVs are an ICE owners wet dream. Never gonna happen either.

 

I can't see any pay per use scheme anywhere in the world that would apply ONLY to EV's, if it is introduced it will be all vehicles.  I don't see it working in Thailand in my lifetime.  They are more likely to make up the fuel tax shortfall with increased Por Lor Bor costs.

[eisfeld]

7 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Wrong I never posted anything that your quoting

Sorry mixed you up with "Startmeup". I wanted to quote him.

[vinny41]

7 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Here is her statement...

Furthermore, notwithstanding the government efforts towards promoting EV vehicles, the adoption rate has been low, and the customers still favour ICE vehicles in Thailand. Between January to September 2023, Thailand’s total vehicle sales were 500,942 units, wherein the EV share was 10.05%. While the number depicted a major growth from 9,729 EVs sold in the same period last year, the market share compared to ICE vehicles remains quite low. Moreover, the price gap between even the cheapest EV car model and the cheapest ICE car model is massive. The cheapest EV car model costs about $22,800 (post-subsidy), while ICE car models are available starting from about $9,000.

 

I don't think it's valid to say the adoption rate has been low when it increased over 600%, but the kicker is the prices she quoted, the cheapest EV post subsidy is not $22,800.

 

If that isn't biased then I don't know what is.

 

Any think tank saying that the government will miss it's targets is nothing more than theory and fluff until the evidence is clear, an increase in one year of over 600% adoption is evidence contra to her statements.

 

If it were to continue growing at 600% then the timescale would be a lot shorter than 2035.

 

The author doesn't work for a think tank she is a financial journalist

https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=namrata-senchanda&pg=2

When people talked about % is does depend on the starting base line

If I was to offer you a return of 600% based on an investment of Baht 1 that means the return of your investment would be Baht 6 plus your initial investment of Baht 1 totaling 7 baht

In 2020 1,056 Ev's were sold in 2021 1,935 ev's were sold in 2022 9,729 EV's were sold and in 2023 76,314 were sold total number for the period 2020-2023 total 89,034

In March 2021 the Government publish target figures for 2025 2030 and 2035

For 2025 the target figure for EV's cars/pickup trucks  in use is 402,000 target figure for BEV motorcycles is  622,000 and for buses and trucks 31,000

They also published target figures for local production of all of the above EV's types of vehicles

If we assume the 2025 2030 2035 are all December dates 

If we look at the December 2025 Target figures for cars/pickup trucks of 402,000 in use than means during the 2024-2025 period a total of 312,966 need to be sold

if we look at the total number of sales for 2023 of 76,314 and if double that number were sold in 2024 152,628 than means to reach the target of 402,000 that the number of ev's sold in 2025 would need to be 160,338

Problem is since those target figures were published multiple things have changed that will result in those targets unlikely to be met and will result in slippage on those target numbers

https://www.thaiauto.or.th/2020/news/?news_id=4981

[JBChiangRai]

7 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The author doesn't work for a think tank she is a financial journalist

https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=namrata-senchanda&pg=2

When people talked about % is does depend on the starting base line

If I was to offer you a return of 600% based on an investment of Baht 1 that means the return of your investment would be Baht 6 plus your initial investment of Baht 1 totaling 7 baht

 

 

In 2020 1,056 Ev's were sold in 2021 1,935 ev's were sold in 2022 9,729 EV's were sold and in 2023 76,314 were sold total number for the period 2020-2023 total 89,034

In March 2021 the Government publish target figures for 2025 2030 and 2035

For 2025 the target figure for EV's cars/pickup trucks  in use is 402,000 target figure for BEV motorcycles is  622,000 and for buses and trucks 31,000

They also published target figures for local production of all of the above EV's types of vehicles

If we assume the 2025 2030 2035 are all December dates 

If we look at the December 2025 Target figures for cars/pickup trucks of 402,000 in use than means during the 2024-2025 period a total of 312,966 need to be sold

if we look at the total number of sales for 2023 of 76,314 and if double that number were sold in 2024 152,628 than means to reach the target of 402,000 that the number of ev's sold in 2025 would need to be 160,338

Problem is since those target figures were published multiple things have changed that will result in those targets unlikely to be met and will result in slippage on those target numbers

https://www.thaiauto.or.th/2020/news/?news_id=4981

 

Thank you for the lesson in growth.

 

If we apply the same percentage growth this year and next year as last year (and I am rounding down to 600%) 76,314 in 2023 becomes 534,000 in 2024 and 3,700,000 in 2025.  We could be on target to overachieve by a factor of ten.

 

However, if we accept that growth is accelerating, as it has done over the last 3 years.. that's a whole other ballgame

 

BTW, do you always believe journo's?

[vinny41]

3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Thank you for the lesson in growth.

 

If we apply the same percentage growth this year and next year as last year (and I am rounding down to 600%) 76,314 in 2023 becomes 534,000 in 2024 and 3,700,000 in 2025.  We could be on target to overachieve by a factor of ten.

 

However, if we accept that growth is accelerating, as it has done over the last 3 years.. that's a whole other ballgame

 

BTW, do you always believe journo's?

Your living in a fantasy world if you believe that 457,884 EV's will be sold in 2024

and what the journalist wrote about EV sales in 2023 compared to ICE sales in 2023 was completely correct market share of EV's in Thailand is still small compared to ICE sales in 2023 and totally number of vehicles on the road

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, vinny41 said:

Your living in a fantasy world if you believe that 457,884 EV's will be sold in 2024

and what the journalist wrote about EV sales in 2023 compared to ICE sales in 2023 was completely correct market share of EV's in Thailand is still small compared to ICE sales in 2023 and totally number of vehicles on the road

 

You were being an idiot, so I thought i would give you some company.

[vinny41]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

 

You were being an idiot, so I thought i would give you some company.

I think your the only idiot on this thread lots of changes have happen within the thai economy since the previous government announced those planned target numbers for 2025 2030 2035

Hence why I said slippage will happen to those target numbers 

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

I think your the only idiot on this thread lots of changes have happen within the thai economy since the previous government announced those planned target numbers for 2025 2030 2035

Hence why I said slippage will happen to those target numbers 

 

You are doing nothing more than speculating on future numbers, as was I. I factored previous real growth.  No, I don't believe we will have 600% growth this year but I think 100% growth (double if you like) is more than likely.

 

I get your position on EV's, but you're convincing yourself you're right and the more someone argues with you the more you dive into the web to try and find arguments against EV's.  

 

I could understand you arguing against them on a particular point, but you're trying to convince yourself they are going to fail when all the data says sales are accelerating, customers love them (I won't use the word like because it's not descriptive enough). They don't catch fire, there are lots of charging stations, residual value so far is no different to ICE, Chinese EV's are not junk.

 

You and ExpatOilWorker are for some unknown reason, dead set against EV's.  Those of us that actually own them, would never go back to ICE.

 

 

[Startmeup]

Back Burner, a long list of back burners

https://electrek.co/2023/12/19/audi-puts-big-ev-push-on-the-back-burner/

[Startmeup]

Welcome to the club, Big B

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bentley-delays-first-ev-wont-151144573.html

[liddelljohn]

in UK 2nd hand EVs  are almost unsaleable , dealers cant shift them at any price ,,, also EV insurance costs  are much higher than ICE  , its a burst bubble ,even company fleets who purchase 90% of all EVs sold  are realising that they have real issues with range  and efficiency ,,,also this week it is reported that sales of electric motorcycles have collapsed  , whilst sales of ICE motorcycles is at a record high for last 6 months ,,,,,

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

51 minutes ago, liddelljohn said:

in UK 2nd hand EVs  are almost unsaleable , dealers cant shift them at any price ,,, also EV insurance costs  are much higher than ICE  , its a burst bubble ,even company fleets who purchase 90% of all EVs sold  are realising that they have real issues with range  and efficiency ,,,also this week it is reported that sales of electric motorcycles have collapsed  , whilst sales of ICE motorcycles is at a record high for last 6 months ,,,,,

 

 

It's probable that customers are awaiting for the cheaper Chinese EV’s.

[Startmeup]

19 hours ago, liddelljohn said:

also this week it is reported that sales of electric motorcycles have collapsed

Friend was telling me one of his friends bought an EV scooter in Bali. He said if you have it economy mode its absolutely gutless.

Then you put it in sport mode to make it act like a normal scooter which cuts the range in half.

He throws his bird on the back and the range is cut in half again.

Its as good as useless if your going anywhere over 10kms 2 up.

Not sure what brand it is.

 

18 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

It's probable that customers are awaiting for the cheaper Chinese EV’s.

Anybody in Western countries waiting for a super cheap Chinese EV will never buy an EV. There will be massive tariffs put on cheap Chinese EVs. Western Car manufacturers cant compete so it will essential send them all broke losing hundreds of thousands of jobs.

It won't happen.

Trump has already hinted as much saying BYD manufacturing cars in Mexico and expecting to drive them across the border to sell in the US will get a big surprise. They can manufacture them in America if they like with US jobs and US supply chains or they can get stuffed. 

US is the world's second largest car market after China. 

 

[liddelljohn]

Many commercial and public council charging stations in UK  have announced  recently massive increases in charging prices  ,so charging average EV will cost £50   also fines for staying longer than 3 hours  , many vehicles wont have a sufficient  charge in that time ,, people are furious ,,, ha ha just another cash cow,

 

  also government raising road taxes on EVs  and The  awaited really cheap Chinese models are likely to have huge import duties added .. making them expensive

[transam]

5 minutes ago, liddelljohn said:

Many commercial and public council charging stations in UK  have announced  recently massive increases in charging prices  ,so charging average EV will cost £50   also fines for staying longer than 3 hours  , many vehicles wont have a sufficient  charge in that time ,, people are furious ,,, ha ha just another cash cow,

 

  also government raising road taxes on EVs  and The  awaited really cheap Chinese models are likely to have huge import duties added .. making them expensive

I did think the EV hysteria bubble may burst. No more cheap lecy, "we now have a way to make money, because you have no alternative"....😱

 

[MrPancake]

The entire EV industry is one big scam.

It is bound to fail due to the lack of resources anyway.

Most experts agree, yet nobody seems to give a <deleted>.

Go figure...

 

I saw a dog on a stick today in Hanoi.

Might give it a try at some point....