Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You have reversed the situation.

 

In Vietnam, the US were the invaders, and we destroyed villages.

 

In Ukraine, Russians are the invaders, and they are destroying villages.

 

Russia faces the same problem as the US in Vietnam: how to "win", since the locals wouldn't give up.

Fair point but then neither will the Russians. A chap was on LBC Radio talking to Matt Frei this morning who reckoned the frozen war Korean armistice was the most likely outcome. A war which is no longer hot but never resolved. I agree. If Trump wins then he will acclerate that process to that point and claim it as his victory but it was probably going to happen anyway and if it is going to happen anyway then the sooner the war stops the sooner folks stop dying.

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Russia will lose when its army can no longer maintain offensive operations. The best example is the collapse of the Russian army in 1917.

 

We will probably reach that point in a year or so.

Don't tell @transam but that's when the commies took over.

 

 

[transam]

20 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Don't tell @transam but that's when the commies took over.

 

 

Says, the brainwashed Red bloke......🤔

[rabas]

As posted earlier by kwonitoy, Ukraine/NATO is literally cleaning out Putin's invincible S400/S300 air defense systems. Giving up on S-400, Putin's MOD has moved their S-500 system to Crimea. System. How many do they have? One. And no current production as it's still not fully qualified. This system was protecting Moscow Putin.

 

         

 

Is that desperate?

 

 

It may not work as well as promised. LINK

 

Russian industry has struggled to source precision electronics needed to produce the originally planned precise hit-to-kill missiles so the prototype has an old style warhead. "In other words, the S-500 is probably not as effective as it could be against the very weapon that’s been harrying Russian air-defense batteries in Crimea."

[tgw]

 

[beautifulthailand99]

Interesting article in the WSJ suggesting that the direction of travel is towards a possible second summit where it is hoped that Ukraine and Russia can begin negotataions. The upticks of positive UKR messaging and throwing everything they have at Russia reminds me of the same mood before the much vaunted Shh Spring Offensive. The US desperately wants their own out so that they can pivot resources and attention to Asia-Pacific and the spectre of Trump hangs over everything like a cloud and it's not a peace summit if you don't invite your enemy.

 

Zelesnkiy is going to be persuaded to downgrade his maximalist position or possibly be removed to make way for someone who can. Keeping up appearances and presenting a united front is obviously important but Meloni gave the game away over a year ago when she was pranked by Russians. The situation is unarguably far worse now.

 

European leaders are “tired” of the war in Ukraine, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told two Russian pranksters in a call — thinking she was speaking with officials with the African Union.

Meloni informed the pair that “fatigue” with the war was coming to a head.“I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides,” she said. “We [are] near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-ukraine-fatigue-prank-call-russia-war/

 

Zelensky has said that he is open to a follow-up summit later this year that Russia might attend. But some Western diplomats said they doubt that—even if Moscow becomes more willing to embrace peace negotiations—the kind of multilateral, public setting for this weekend’s summit would be the right formula.

 

That diplomatic push, rather than patching up cracks in global sympathy for Ukraine, has exposed them. At a Group of Seven summit in Italy this week, leaders of large advanced democracies offered money and rhetoric for Ukraine but only a weak facsimile of the security guarantees that Zelensky sought. The Ukrainian president, who invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend the Swiss conference, has since publicly feuded with China, which he says has discouraged other nations from attending.

 

 

https://archive.ph/z9gWH

[beautifulthailand99]

A united briefing front from the US which is not so subtly pushing a line. Armistice and DMZ - sorry Fellas.

The counter argument is always that UA couldn’t trust Russia to invade again. But there’s also the debilitating effect this conflict has had on Ukraine by continuing; millions lost to migration and hundreds of thousands lost, with no guarantee of a better deal down the line.

 

 Instead, the more likely end to the fighting could be an uneasy truce. Marc Weller, a Cambridge international law professor who specializes in peace negotiations, said he expected leading Western countries to focus on defending Ukraine’s future battle line with Russia “rather than seek accommodation across it.”

“The Iron Curtain will now fall on the line of occupation administered by the Russians across Ukraine,” Mr. Weller said

 

https://archive.ph/uzDI3

[beautifulthailand99]

Interesting take from Kasparov who almost accuses Biden of betrayal.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

6 hours ago, transam said:

Says, the brainwashed Red bloke......🤔

I would say the comma is uneccesary and capitalisation of Reds and your assumption of my gender but apart from that perfect. Never had a pet troll before I am quite amused.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Ukraine winning would be Russian withdrawal, fall of Putin and a more civil government in Russia (for the people), friendly relations between Ukraine and Russia focused on mutual growth and benefit, even some repair work.

 

Wait, that benefits Russia too!  And wow, some other leader than Putin could have started that 20 years ago. 

LOL. You imagine that Putin would not be replaced by someone else just the same? Gobachev is in his grave, not waiting in the wings.

 

Had not some nutters started on about NATO in Ukraine likely none of this would have happened.

Always some nutter looking to stir the pot.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Interesting take from Kasparov who almost accuses Biden of betrayal.

 

 

Biden, betrayal! Say it isn't so.

 

It's not at all likely that the US will do something as underhand as that, surely?

 

Oh dear oh dear, what a terrible thing to say about the leader of the free world.

 

( sarcasm alert for the humour devoid ).

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

if it is going to happen anyway then the sooner the war stops the sooner folks stop dying.

Sadly, IMO, the people dying don't really count to the people sending them to the front.

IMO the war will end once it becomes politically impossible to keep making western taxpayers buy missiles for Ukraine. Still a ways to go till we reach that point though. They put that day off by pretending that Russia is paying by stealing Russian money in the west. That's going to go down well with all the other counties depositing loot money in the west.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, rabas said:

As posted earlier by kwonitoy, Ukraine/NATO is literally cleaning out Putin's invincible S400/S300 air defense systems. Giving up on S-400, Putin's MOD has moved their S-500 system to Crimea. System. How many do they have? One. And no current production as it's still not fully qualified. This system was protecting Moscow Putin.

 

         

 

Is that desperate?

 

 

It may not work as well as promised. LINK

 

Russian industry has struggled to source precision electronics needed to produce the originally planned precise hit-to-kill missiles so the prototype has an old style warhead. "In other words, the S-500 is probably not as effective as it could be against the very weapon that’s been harrying Russian air-defense batteries in Crimea."

If the photo is of the sole Russian defense against Ukrainian air attack on Crimea it's already over. All the crafty Ukrainians need to do is send more than 2 missiles and it's game over for Crimea.

 

One suspects it's not that simple though.

[Danderman123]

12 hours ago, mogandave said:

Yeah, the only reason Putin invaded Ukraine was because his puppet Trump was President…wait…

Because Trump lost.

 

Putin was counting on Trump giving him Ukraine.

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If the photo is of the sole Russian defense against Ukrainian air attack on Crimea it's already over. All the crafty Ukrainians need to do is send more than 2 missiles and it's game over for Crimea.

 

One suspects it's not that simple though.

You responded to a post about the single destroyed S-500 system, but Russia has plenty of S-400s in Crimea.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

You responded to a post about the single destroyed S-500 system, but Russia has plenty of S-400s in Crimea.

I was responding to rabas's post.

 

9 hours ago, rabas said:

As posted earlier by kwonitoy, Ukraine/NATO is literally cleaning out Putin's invincible S400/S300 air defense systems. Giving up on S-400, Putin's MOD has moved their S-500 system to Crimea.

 

[transam]

5 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I would say the comma is uneccesary and capitalisation of Reds and your assumption of my gender but apart from that perfect. Never had a pet troll before I am quite amused.

Don't think I have ever had a Red follower....I am quite amused too......😉

[transam]

8 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Interesting article in the WSJ suggesting that the direction of travel is towards a possible second summit where it is hoped that Ukraine and Russia can begin negotataions. The upticks of positive UKR messaging and throwing everything they have at Russia reminds me of the same mood before the much vaunted Shh Spring Offensive. The US desperately wants their own out so that they can pivot resources and attention to Asia-Pacific and the spectre of Trump hangs over everything like a cloud and it's not a peace summit if you don't invite your enemy.

 

Zelesnkiy is going to be persuaded to downgrade his maximalist position or possibly be removed to make way for someone who can. Keeping up appearances and presenting a united front is obviously important but Meloni gave the game away over a year ago when she was pranked by Russians. The situation is unarguably far worse now.

 

European leaders are “tired” of the war in Ukraine, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told two Russian pranksters in a call — thinking she was speaking with officials with the African Union.

Meloni informed the pair that “fatigue” with the war was coming to a head.“I see that there is a lot of fatigue, I have to say the truth, from all the sides,” she said. “We [are] near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out.”

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-ukraine-fatigue-prank-call-russia-war/

 

Zelensky has said that he is open to a follow-up summit later this year that Russia might attend. But some Western diplomats said they doubt that—even if Moscow becomes more willing to embrace peace negotiations—the kind of multilateral, public setting for this weekend’s summit would be the right formula.

 

That diplomatic push, rather than patching up cracks in global sympathy for Ukraine, has exposed them. At a Group of Seven summit in Italy this week, leaders of large advanced democracies offered money and rhetoric for Ukraine but only a weak facsimile of the security guarantees that Zelensky sought. The Ukrainian president, who invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to attend the Swiss conference, has since publicly feuded with China, which he says has discouraged other nations from attending.

 

 

https://archive.ph/z9gWH

You remind me of my old school reports, which general said....

 

"Needs to try harder"................🤣

[transam]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Because Trump lost.

 

Putin was counting on Trump giving him Ukraine.

Absolutely, that's where McTrumps can finish the war in 24 hours came from.....

McTrump is an AH, crook, and traitorous dog......😬

[rabas]

53 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I was responding to rabas's post.

 

Correct. It shows Russia's sole, not yet fully functional S-500 system moved to Crimea because ATACMS  have cleared out most/all S400/S300 systems there. 

 

Forbes: Ukrainian ATACMS Rockets Are Blowing Up Russia’s Best S-400 Air Defenses As Fast As The S-400s Can Deploy To Crimea

 

A desperate move that Russian generals can't be happy with. Surely Putin will never back down but much of Russia isn't very happy. And yes, Russia can change and many Russians yearn for a better life more integrated with the world. 

 

[Danderman123]

13 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Fair point but then neither will the Russians. A chap was on LBC Radio talking to Matt Frei this morning who reckoned the frozen war Korean armistice was the most likely outcome. A war which is no longer hot but never resolved. I agree. If Trump wins then he will acclerate that process to that point and claim it as his victory but it was probably going to happen anyway and if it is going to happen anyway then the sooner the war stops the sooner folks stop dying.

Putin would be very happy with a frozen conflict, where there isn't much fighting.

 

However, Ukraine's strategy is to destroy Russia's army, so Ukraine will force the issue. If Russia were to stop advancing, then Ukraine would pick a weak spot and advance.

[Danderman123]

16 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

One of Putin's failures, air defense and lack of aircraft hangers, all probably due to corruption. More aircraft bite the dust.

 

https://x.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1801919037091320104

 

It appears that the aircraft were moved before the strike. It's possible that Russia has a mole  in the Ukrainian military.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

 

Correct. It shows Russia's sole, not yet fully functional S-500 system moved to Crimea because ATACMS  have cleared out most/all S400/S300 systems there. 

 

Forbes: Ukrainian ATACMS Rockets Are Blowing Up Russia’s Best S-400 Air Defenses As Fast As The S-400s Can Deploy To Crimea

 

A desperate move that Russian generals can't be happy with. Surely Putin will never back down but much of Russia isn't very happy. And yes, Russia can change and many Russians yearn for a better life more integrated with the world. 

 

As a historical note, last summer, Ukraine sent drones to attack Moscow. In response, Russia moved anti-aircraft systems from the front to the Moscow region, leaving the front poorly defended.

 

As a result, Ukraine has had a free hand deploying missiles and drones in the front, killing thousands of Russian soldiers. But Moscow is safe - for now.

[Danderman123]

Russia has a military option it has not yet exercised - sending ICBMs with conventional warheads to Kyiv. It is questionable whether any Ukrainian defense could stop an ICBM.

 

It's likely that Russia hasn't done this because Ukraine possesses ICBMs, as well, and could launch them in a pinch. I have seen Ukrainian ICBMs up close and personal.

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

It appears that the aircraft were moved before the strike. It's possible that Russia has a mole  in the Ukrainian military.

Both sides are heavily compromised intelligence wise and some will leak information for money or the age old age old honeytraps. The grenade that killed a close friend of Zalunhyi and the poisoning of Budanov's wife were inside jobs.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67342367

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

As a historical note, last summer, Ukraine sent drones to attack Moscow. In response, Russia moved anti-aircraft systems from the front to the Moscow region, leaving the front poorly defended.

 

As a result, Ukraine has had a free hand deploying missiles and drones in the front, killing thousands of Russian soldiers. But Moscow is safe - for now.

The reverse has happened on the Ukrainian front where Himars and Patriots were easily spotted by the endless drones and taken out so remaining ones were moved way back behind the lines making the front vulnerable to the relentless onlslaught of FAB bombs launched 10s of kms from behind the Russian lines. Same for the increasingly vulnerable power grid - Ukraine is pretty much out of AD. Zelenskiy is asking for stuff that doesn't exist or if it does the owner doesn't want to give it up. Who can forget after October 7th leader after leader went to visit Netanhayu bearing gifts and sympathy but Zeleskiy was given an abrupt no. They are fishing in the same pool and Israel has first dibs.

 

Besisdes which if Russia is such an existential threat to the rest of Europe then why would anyone give up valuable AD ? The paradox of  of Schrodinger's Russia:Russia is both "upper Volta with missiles" with a smaller economy than Italy and a weak nation that Obama called a "regional power" - but is also an existential threat to US democracy and powerful enough to influence the outcome of US elections and take over the whole of Europe just like Hitler.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-has-25-of-needed-air-defenses/

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/16/7424350/

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Russia has a military option it has not yet exercised - sending ICBMs with conventional warheads to Kyiv. It is questionable whether any Ukrainian defense could stop an ICBM.

 

It's likely that Russia hasn't done this because Ukraine possesses ICBMs, as well, and could launch them in a pinch. I have seen Ukrainian ICBMs up close and personal.

Why would it do that though it's isn't out of other missiles  Examination of debris shows plenty of new kit used so they still have ramped up industrial capacity. It would be the equivalent of using a sledgehammer to put up a shelf.That and NK has stepped up to the plate with exports of tech,shells and misisles. The lesson of Huawei is sanction a company or country to death in a country that posseses the manpower, industrial capacity and know how just makes the sanctioned entity stronger in the longer term.

 

https://archive.ph/r1IEg

[jvs]

 

[transam]

25 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Why would it do that though it's isn't out of other missiles  Examination of debris shows plenty of new kit used so they still have ramped up industrial capacity. It would be the equivalent of using a sledgehammer to put up a shelf.That and NK has stepped up to the plate with exports of tech,shells and misisles. The lesson of Huawei is sanction a company or country to death in a country that posseses the manpower, industrial capacity and know how just makes the sanctioned entity stronger in the longer term.

 

https://archive.ph/r1IEg

"Examination of debris"......Have you just got back.............?   😂

[beautifulthailand99]

4 minutes ago, transam said:

"Examination of debris"......Have you just got back.............?   😂

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ballistic-missile-ukraine-iran-us-intelligence-3601a979e91d19c94e7d0fe27a398669