Today I met the first farang returning home because of exchange rate

[patman30]

54 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Oh, OK then! It's just that you said the rate has been in the mid 40's for years, which it hasn't. In case you need help, mid stands for middle! Pre-covid, GBP/THB was trending stronger into the high 30's. The trend very clearly was for a stronger THB and that's where it is headed once again, that's the fear and the risk.

 

 

 

obviously i do not check rates everyday, but whenever i have looked, it has been 40 something
but as you can see from the image i posted above for the majority of the past 10 years the price has been in the mid 40s

The OP is posting like this is something new
something we have both clearly shown, the rate right now is nothing new
and most certainly is not a dip that is suddenly hurting peoples wallets
anyone been here a while have seen much better and a little worse
but 43 is not the sky falling
 

Edited yesterday at 04:24 AM by patman30

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, patman30 said:

obviously i do not check rates everyday, but whenever i have looked, it has been 40 something
but as you can see from the image i posted above for the majority of the past 10 years the price has been in the mid 40s

The OP is posting like this is something new
something we have both clearly shown, the rate right now is nothing new
and most certainly is not a dip that is suddenly hurting peoples wallets
anyone been here a while have seen much better and a little worse
but 43 is not the sky falling
 

The problem is the pre covid trend to sub 40, which is the longer term direction the baht is headed. Pre-1997, THB was pegged at 25 and around 35 GBP. thats where it is headed, over time.

[patman30]

10 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

The problem is the pre covid trend to sub 40, which is the longer term direction the baht is headed. Pre-1997, THB was pegged at 25 and around 35 GBP. thats where it is headed, over time.

Again, as we have both clearly pointed out, The current rate is Nothing New.

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, patman30 said:

Again, as we have both clearly pointed out, The current rate is Nothing New.

On that basis, no rate between 35 and 94 is new, it doesn't mean it's not cause for concern.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

21 hours ago, chiang mai said:

Two points:

 

GBP has been weakening since Bretton Woods, the Pound has been on a downwards slope for decades.

 

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

 

Second: the US Fed actively monitors currencies against USD, for currency manipulation and frequently puts various countries on their watch list. That encourages countries to import more goods from, the US. The following link explains:

https://www.cfr.org/article/tracking-currency-manipulation

I hear you about the Pound and you are right - the Pound has weakened for a long time and that is against most currencies - including the USD as in your chart.   But it had stabilised against the Baht until the Junta took over when it went down again (as did all others) and then since July the Baht has again gone up against all main currencies. It is not just the USD weakening as some people are saying - but the Baht has gone up against all main currencies.

 

You have the other matter around the wrong way I think. The US Fed does not monitor those currencies that are over-valued - they only monitor those currencies that they deem are under-valued (such as China was a while ago - despite a booming economy).  When countries manipulate their currency to decrease its value - they do that so that their exports are cheaper and also their local production is cheaper (hence why iPhones Androids etc etc etc are made in China).  The reason that Fed does that is because countries can and do manipulate their currency value on the world markets (as China did).

 

Me thinks the recent increase in the Baht value is not because of excellent economic conditions - which are far from that. I think it is because the BOT refuses to lower interest rates and because the Thai Govt (and the wealthy) wants the Baht to stay high (for their Imports and Loans payments). A high Baht hurts the Thai economy (Exports and Tourism cost more), but those who dont care prefer the Baht to be high - Example - so they can buy Mercedes, Gold, etc etc and for when they invest their money overseas and buy property overseas. Plus something tells me a lot of foreign currency is coming into Thailand to avoid the new tax situation - anything earned before 1 Jan 2024 is tax free, but money earning after that date is taxable. 

 

A foreign exchange intervention is a monetary policy tool which a central bank uses to take an active, participatory role in influencing the monetary funds transfer rate of the national currency, usually with its own reserves or its own authority to generate the currency.

Central banks, especially those in developing countries, intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the country's banks. Their aim is often to stabilize the exchange rate.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Definition, Strategies, Goals (investopedia.com)

 

[TroubleandGrumpy]

21 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

The baht hasn't been particularly strong for extended periods. 
It is the currencies of western countries living beyond their means that have weakened against the baht.
The dollar gets a temporary pass because it's the global reserve currency for now

Sterling has been hid particularly hard but I can't seem to make some of my countrymen here accept that things like the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit referendum effectively eviscerated the pound. They seem to think the "problem" is on the Thai side when there is irrefutable evidence that it's all been on ours.

As per my last post - I think there is more to it than you think - including the Thai Govt manipulating their currency. 

 

IMO the recent increase in the Baht value is not because of excellent Thailand economic conditions - which are far from that. I think it is because the BOT refuses to lower interest rates and because the Thai Govt (and the wealthy) wants the Baht to stay high (for their Imports and Loans payments). A high Baht hurts the Thai economy (Exports and Tourism cost more), but those who dont care prefer the Baht to be high. Plus something tells me a lot of foreign currency is coming into Thailand to avoid the new tax situation - anything earned before 1 Jan 2024 is tax free, but money earning after that date is taxable. 

 

A foreign exchange intervention is a monetary policy tool which a central bank uses to take an active, participatory role in influencing the monetary funds transfer rate of the national currency, usually with its own reserves or its own authority to generate the currency.

Central banks, especially those in developing countries, intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the country's banks. Their aim is often to stabilize the exchange rate.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Definition, Strategies, Goals (investopedia.com)

 

 

[brianthainess]

The GBP is just creeping back up a bit. 

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, brianthainess said:

The GBP is just creeping back up a bit. 

The UK budget is going to be a doozy, my guess is that GBP will weaken as a result.

[dddave]

23 hours ago, itsari said:

Extreme levels of currencies like the pound usually do not last long

You need to look at the average rate over 12 months 

I see the Thai baht has started to fall back again after a good run for the last month.

Comment removed.  Redundant.

Edited yesterday at 05:05 AM by dddave

[Liverpool Lou]

2 hours ago, NanLaew said:

17 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Where was it reported that he is aged under 43?

 

In the OP.

 

On 9/16/2024 at 11:12 AM, nofarang said:

He said, he loves it here but cannot afford it anymore. As the pound constantly on its way down life for him becomes unbearable expensive. At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake. He was on his way back home. I wonder how many more have given up....

Gawd...that was the exchange rate! 

[Liverpool Lou]

13 hours ago, david555 said:

"At present under 43 "

I know what was reported because I can read.  My question was to the poster who, clearly, cannot read that the reference to "under 43" referred, obviously, to the exchange rate.

[ignis]

14 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

Exactly, those that arrived 20 years ago  enjoyed a 70bht/GBP rate, and measured their savings on that exchange rate.

If they did everything legal (I don't mention those on the forum that think they can beat the system forever), they won't have had an index increase on their pensions, though the exchange rate has declined.

 

 

Yes when I moved here the exchange was 76 baht to the £

UK pensions is frozen, but prices here keep going up.and up, so many thing one must cut back on

[patman30]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

On that basis, no rate between 35 and 94 is new, it doesn't mean it's not cause for concern.

yawn

[MarkBR]

4 hours ago, chiang mai said:

The UK budget is going to be a doozy, my guess is that GBP will weaken as a result.

Indeed

[ModdaPunk]

On 9/16/2024 at 4:12 AM, nofarang said:

He said, he loves it here but cannot afford it anymore. As the pound constantly on its way down life for him becomes unbearable expensive. At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake. He was on his way back home. I wonder how many more have given up....

 

Should have gone to Vietnam.

[In Full Agreement]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:12 AM, nofarang said:

He said, he loves it here but cannot afford it anymore. As the pound constantly on its way down life for him becomes unbearable expensive. At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake. He was on his way back home. I wonder how many more have given up....

 

 

He should have pulled his money out two or three months ago.

[Upnotover]

2 hours ago, In Full Agreement said:

 

 

He should have pulled his money out two or three months ago.

Pulled it out of where?  If he kept it here it worth more in GBP now than before (a little).  Anyway this thread misses the crucial factor of what his benchmark is/was.

[novacova]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:12 AM, nofarang said:

At present under 43 and with the bleak prospective of sliding further he is forced to pull the brake.

He has at least 20-25 years left in him to go home and make a load money. At the age of 43 retirement was out past the horizon and deep in the prime years of my profession and had no interest whatsoever in slowing down. I could never understand why anyone would want to come here and work (unless it was high paying) and struggle to make a living. 

 

 

[Henryford]

18 hours ago, chiang mai said:

The UK budget is going to be a doozy, my guess is that GBP will weaken as a result.

 

But i think most of the bad news we know already, CGT, Inheritance tax etc. I would have thought the markets would have priced that in already.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, Henryford said:

 

But i think most of the bad news we know already, CGT, Inheritance tax etc. I would have thought the markets would have priced that in already.

The Pound would have gained against USD as a result of the Fed rate cuts so it's difficult to see if anything budget related is already built in.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=GBP

 

[Mike Teavee]

9 hours ago, novacova said:

He has at least 20-25 years left in him to go home and make a load money. At the age of 43 retirement was out past the horizon and deep in the prime years of my profession and had no interest whatsoever in slowing down. I could never understand why anyone would want to come here and work (unless it was high paying) and struggle to make a living. 

 

 

The <43 was referring to GBP:THB rate (currently 44:1) not his age,  It's more likely the guy in the OP is a retiree taking a triple whammy of a frozen pension, inflation driving prices up & the drop in exchange rate (from 46:1 to 43:1)

 

43:1 is not that bad if you look at the rate since BREXIT so I strongly suspect that the other factors have had more of an impact on him than the FX rate.

  

[bigt3116]

On 9/16/2024 at 12:13 PM, chiang mai said:

If he didn't budget for 25, he didn't do his homework.

 

Serious? Are you suggesting that when I came and it was 65, I should have planned on it becoming 25 ?

 

Sounds absolutely stupid.

[Hummin]

17 minutes ago, bigt3116 said:

 

Serious? Are you suggesting that when I came and it was 65, I should have planned on it becoming 25 ?

 

Sounds absolutely stupid.

If you count on the world not changing and unexpected things not going to happen, yes

 

I listened to old people advises to always have a backnup plan, which many who moved to Thailand's Golden area for good valuta exchange, did not do. Many burned all their bridges, and thought that would carry them to their end days. 

[chiang mai]

1 hour ago, bigt3116 said:

 

Serious? Are you suggesting that when I came and it was 65, I should have planned on it becoming 25 ?

 

Sounds absolutely stupid.

25 was  a  reference to USD, that was the rate at which THB was pegged for decades, prior to the 1997 crash. Against GBP, 35 would be the corresponding rate, a level it started to get close to, pre-covid in 2019. (GBP/THB reached 37 in July 2019)

 

If 25/35 sounds stupid then you don't understand currencies or economics.

 

I came here to live permanently in 2004, even at that time I did my planning based on 35, not the rate at the time....why would you!

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/gbpthb:cur

 

[In Full Agreement]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:52 AM, Pouatchee said:

i would get 29.13 bh to the dollar.

 

I recall that rate around 2014 but not from three years ago.

[GypsyT]

Thank you America!

 

"Currently, it's estimated that Social Security benefits could see a 2.5% so-called COLA hike in 2025" (12 hours ago)