Jump to content

Baht strength - How long?


Recommended Posts

I'm certainly not the first to wonder about the exchange rate THB against other currencies, but please bear with me!

 

I see the current rates:

1 USD = 32.4 THB   which is 9% down compared to 6 months ago

1 EUR = 36.2 THB   which is 7% down compared to 6 months ago

1 GBP = 43.3 THB   which is 5% down compared to 6 months ago

 

That's quite a drop in purchasing power within a relatively short time for a lot of western residents in Thailand, and for a lot of potential western tourists! Can someone explain what is going on and give a view on how long this trend might hold in the near-mid term?

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, timendres said:

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

Thanks!

What is "the 31 handle"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, FlorC said:

It seems THB follows the gold price since April.

Euro to Thai Baht Exchange Rate Chart | Xe

 

While in other currencies Gold is al lot up , it stays steady in THB.

Gold is going to keep going up , so will the THB.

 

The US elections may reverse both.

 

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

Gold is priced in USD and THB is valued against USD also hence both will follow a similar path.

 

Agreed about the elections though, forecasts are for a reversal to 36..

 

That would be 36 USD I guess, i.e. some sort of back where we were 6 months ago (or more)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, timendres said:

What is going on is "macro economics" with bursts of speculation.

If it were predictable, I would be purchasing an ocean-side penthouse.

How long will this last? My "bet" would be at least until after the US election.

If I was to guess, I would expect it to bottom out in the 31 handle.

The chart looks a lot like the 3rd quarter of 2022.

 

 

It’s amazing the number of people who think they can predict exchange rates. The whole point of the Wise account is it lets one exchange between currencies whenever desired. But isn’t that just amateur currency trading? If people are really doing so well with that strategy they could be making a lot of money trading more formally on Forex markets or something. 

 

More likely, I think doing so provides a sense of gratification and that like gamblers people tend to only count their gains. Now some people will insist that really do have genuine gains this way. Great. Go trade Forex. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Everyman said:

It’s amazing the number of people who think they can predict exchange rates. The whole point of the Wise account is it lets one exchange between currencies whenever desired. But isn’t that just amateur currency trading? If people are really doing so well with that strategy they could be making a lot of money trading more formally on Forex markets or something. 

 

More likely, I think doing so provides a sense of gratification and that like gamblers people tend to only count their gains. Now some people will insist that really do have genuine gains this way. Great. Go trade Forex. 

 

Having traded forex for several years now, I can say that, for me, it is a frustrating market to trade. That is actually why I like it. It is quite different from the stock market in significant ways. Most who trade forex use very high leverage, which means you better have an edge and you better have exceptional risk management. Or you will fail for sure.

 

In terms of the exchange rate and how it affects us folks who transfer money into Thailand, I don't think anyone really believes they can predict the market with confidence. I think it is more like the lottery. People enjoy engaging in the process, and, they occasionally "win". What's not to like?

 

It is the folks who make the mistake of assuming that a favorable exchange will remain that way that are most at risk. Folks like me who are on social security need to plan for serious moves down in the exchange rate. The rate will typically "revert" back toward the long term average, but you need to be able to manage those months that you are going to come up short.  Best to squirrel away some baht while the rate is in your favor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Everyman said:

 

It’s amazing the number of people who think they can predict exchange rates. The whole point of the Wise account is it lets one exchange between currencies whenever desired. But isn’t that just amateur currency trading? If people are really doing so well with that strategy they could be making a lot of money trading more formally on Forex markets or something. 

 

More likely, I think doing so provides a sense of gratification and that like gamblers people tend to only count their gains. Now some people will insist that really do have genuine gains this way. Great. Go trade Forex. 

I think you missed the point that most are concerned about. 

 

That is, their meagre pension is contracting in value.  The purchasing power of their transferred funds is shrinking. 

 

Basically, their lifestyle may have to change. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.








  • Topics

  • Latest posts...

    1. 69

      Why Men Are Rejecting Marriage

    2. 6

      Thailand Live Monday 30 September 2024

    3. 0

      PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra Thanks Public After Topping Poll

    4. 3

      Trump’s Plan to Reshape the Justice Department: A Radical Shift in Focus

    5. 2

      Trump Threatens Legal Action Against Google Over Alleged Bias in Search Results

    6. 69

      Why Men Are Rejecting Marriage

    7. 7

      How-To: How to stop Alibaba Commie-bandits from sending me spam?

    8. 51

      Three more prominent Republicans ‘put country over party’ and endorse Harris

    9. 1

      Boris Johnson Questions the Effectiveness of 'Medieval' Lockdowns in Covid Fight

    10. 6,584

      Australian Aged Pension

    11. 31

      Investment for income stream for a Thai

    12. 3

      Trump’s Plan to Reshape the Justice Department: A Radical Shift in Focus

    13. 3

      Trump’s Plan to Reshape the Justice Department: A Radical Shift in Focus

×
×
  • Create New...
""