Lions and Tigers and Bears Oh My - How will Trump's Fascist Dictatorship Affect You?

[nauseus]

On 11/16/2024 at 7:02 AM, pattayasan said:

 

It doesn't cause inflation. It's a result of higher interest rates being used to quell inflation. You mob just don't want to acknowledge that Trump's election has literally thrown rates out of control.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TNX/

 

 

Look further back on your own chart. The 10-year was rising even after the 1/2% Fed cut in September and 6 weeks before the election itself. 

[pattayasan]

18 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

 

Look further back on your own chart. The 10-year was rising even after the 1/2% Fed cut in September and 6 weeks before the election itself. 

 

So you believe the recent rise is not related to the election then?

[nauseus]

11 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

So you believe the recent rise is not related to the election then?

 

Did you read The Beano as a  child?

[pattayasan]

10 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Did you read The Beano as a  child?

 

No, I preferred Wham and Smash.

 

Those same policies, however, have been met with unease among bond investors, who fret about government largess and the resurgence of inflation under the president-elect.

 

That concern has been reflected in rising yields on government bonds, which means investors expect to be paid more in interest in exchange for lending to the government.

 

Those began to climb weeks ago, as investors anticipated a Trump win, and on Wednesday the yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped as much 0.2 percentage points, a huge move in that market.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/bond-market-trump.html

 

[mogandave]

24 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

No, I preferred Wham and Smash.

 

Those same policies, however, have been met with unease among bond investors, who fret about government largess and the resurgence of inflation under the president-elect.

 

That concern has been reflected in rising yields on government bonds, which means investors expect to be paid more in interest in exchange for lending to the government.

 

Those began to climb weeks ago, as investors anticipated a Trump win, and on Wednesday the yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped as much 0.2 percentage points, a huge move in that market.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/bond-market-trump.html

 

So that will make the dollar stronger? 

[nauseus]

30 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

No, I preferred Wham and Smash.

 

Those same policies, however, have been met with unease among bond investors, who fret about government largess and the resurgence of inflation under the president-elect.

 

That concern has been reflected in rising yields on government bonds, which means investors expect to be paid more in interest in exchange for lending to the government.

 

Those began to climb weeks ago, as investors anticipated a Trump win, and on Wednesday the yield on 10-year Treasury notes jumped as much 0.2 percentage points, a huge move in that market.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/business/bond-market-trump.html

 

 

I was thinking of RogerThe Dodger.

 

OK, so now it's an anticipated Trump win.

 

Why didn't you guys warn us in September??

[pattayasan]

We did. The same thing happened when Trump won last time.

 

In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s victory, markets reacted predictably with higher Treasury bond yields, stronger equities, and a firmer dollar, reminiscent of the 2016 post-election response.

By Thursday morning (AEDT), Treasury yields continued to climb as traders scaled back expectations for substantial Federal Reserve rate cuts over the coming year.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.479 per cent, its highest since July.

 

https://www.investordaily.com.au/markets/56127-trump-s-policies-stoke-inflation-concerns-at-home-and-abroad

[Yellowtail]

Markets do not like uncertainty 

[G_Money]

On 11/15/2024 at 2:37 PM, pattayasan said:

 

Capitalists say no. Dollar and 10year yields rocketing since Trump was elected. Big Bucks thinks he will bring inflation.

You’re late to the party.

 

Already have record inflation under Biden.

[blaze master]

4 hours ago, pattayasan said:

We did.

 

You are saying they did give warning then post a link from the day after the election. Am I missing something here. 

[pattayasan]

2 hours ago, blaze master said:

 

You are saying they did give warning then post a link from the day after the election. Am I missing something here. 

 

Yeah, the markets didn't wait until after Trump was elected. Once they figured out he was odds on to win (the betting markets were a clue as well) the dxy and 10 year yields started on a tear. There was a bit of a fake move on the day of the election but after the buyers got suckered in for about 2 days the dxy and us 10 year started back up again. They had been rising since mid September.  That must have been the first insider sniff of the way the wind was blowing.

[blaze master]

17 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

Yeah, the markets didn't wait until after Trump was elected. Once they figured out he was odds on to win (the betting markets were a clue as well) the dxy and 10 year yields started on a tear. There was a bit of a fake move on the day of the election but after the buyers got suckered in for about 2 days the dxy and us 10 year started back up again. They had been rising since mid September.  That must have been the first insider sniff of the way the wind was blowing.

 

I love your conspiracy theory. Such a vivid imagination.

[pattayasan]

12 minutes ago, blaze master said:

 

I love your conspiracy theory. Such a vivid imagination.

 

This is a screenshot of the 10 year yield since September which is when I assume the markets figured  out Trump was likely to win. Look it up in trading view or yahoo if you want. you will see that gold and shares were melting up and the dollar index and 10 yr were falling. Then came a reversal. You will also see a similar pattern on the RCP betting averages where the reversal came on October 6. The insider money (wall street) know before the punters. You can even see where the 10 year gets a rocket under it around October 6 when the betting market turned.  This chart proves everything I have said about market movement since and just before Trump was elected.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

This is a screenshot of the 10 year yield since September which is when I assume the markets figured  out Trump was likely to win. Look it up in trading view or yahoo if you want. you will see that gold and shares were melting up and the dollar index and 10 yr were falling. Then came a reversal. You will also see a similar pattern on the RCP betting averages where the reversal came on October 6. The insider money (wall street) know before the punters. This chart proves everything I have said about market movement since and just before Trump was elected.

So the September rate cut had nothing to do with it. Do tell. 

[blaze master]

1 minute ago, pattayasan said:

 

This is a screenshot of the 10 year yield since September which is when I assume the markets figured  out Trump was likely to win. Look it up in trading view or yahoo if you want. you will see that gold and shares were melting up and the dollar index and 10 yr were falling. Then came a reversal. You will also see a similar pattern on the RCP betting averages where the reversal came on October 6. The insider money (wall street) know before the punters. This chart proves everything I have said about market movement since and just before Trump was elected.

 

 

If you say so. I love people who take tiny snapshots of markets. 

 

You assume markets knew eh ? Why don't you show the months charts leading up to the reversal.  Also show some other indicators. Willing to bet it was high into overbought territory at the beginning of Sept. 

 

Gold and dollar tend to go in opposite directions that's nothing new. 

 

 

[pattayasan]

3 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

So the September rate cut had nothing to do with it. Do tell. 

 

No, interest rate cuts cause the 10 year to fall (or the opposite) and the dollar as well. Interest rate rises cause the dollar to rise. They always travel in tandem because they are interdependent. There can be temporary exceptions like war but it's the way of the markets. Now we had interest rate cuts and the dollar went up. Partially because the cuts were priced in anyway but mainly because the anticipation of coming inflation blew the interest rate cuts out of the water. The last round of inflation numbers released were up. Significantly. In a falling economy. Nasty. Have fun, Trump.

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

No, interest rate cuts cause the 10 year to fall (or the opposite) and the dollar as well. Interest rate rises cause the dollar to rise. They always travel in tandem because they are interdependent. There can be temporary exceptions like war but it's the way of the markets. Now we had interest rate cuts and the dollar went up. Partially because the cuts were priced in anyway but mainly because the anticipation of coming inflation blew the interest rate cuts out of the water. The last round of inflation numbers released were up. Significantly. In a falling economy. Nasty. Have fun, Trump.

You have fun as well! 

[pattayasan]

11 minutes ago, blaze master said:

If you say so. I love people who take tiny snapshots of markets. 

 

You assume markets knew eh ? Why don't you show the months charts leading up to the reversal.  Also show some other indicators. Willing to bet it was high into overbought territory at the beginning of Sept. 

 

Gold and dollar tend to go in opposite directions that's nothing new. 

 

 

 

It had been coming down for months so high into overbought was highly unlikely but I don't use an RSI indicator so I don't really know. Looking back I can say the US 10 year had been falling since 30 April before reversing in mid September. Trump's betting odds also  reached a swing low around 21 September. 

 

While we're at it, if the 10 year hits 4.6% (it's 4.4 now) it may form a cup and handle. If that plays out it'll be another stock market crash and catastrophic credit crunch. Think US debt.

[blaze master]

1 hour ago, pattayasan said:

 

It had been coming down for months so high into overbought was highly unlikely but I don't use an RSI indicator so I don't really know. Looking back I can say the US 10 year had been falling since 30 April before reversing in mid September. Trump's betting odds also  reached a swing low around 21 September. 

 

While we're at it, if the 10 year hits 4.6% (it's 4.4 now) it may form a cup and handle. If that plays out it'll be another stock market crash and catastrophic credit crunch. Think US debt.

How does a bullish pattern. Cup and handle. Result in a crash.

[pattayasan]

4 minutes ago, blaze master said:

How does a bullish pattern. Cup and handle. Result in a crash.

 

It will be a bullish pattern in the US 10 year bond yields. That goes hand in hand with inflation. Also bullish. The cup and handle is a very bullish pattern and fairly reliable. The break to the upside target is the full depth of the cup.

[nauseus]

14 hours ago, pattayasan said:

 

No, interest rate cuts cause the 10 year to fall (or the opposite) and the dollar as well. Interest rate rises cause the dollar to rise. They always travel in tandem because they are interdependent. There can be temporary exceptions like war but it's the way of the markets. Now we had interest rate cuts and the dollar went up. Partially because the cuts were priced in anyway but mainly because the anticipation of coming inflation blew the interest rate cuts out of the water. The last round of inflation numbers released were up. Significantly. In a falling economy. Nasty. Have fun, Trump.

 

Ah! Right. So at least we have acknowledgement that the economy was falling and that inflation was rising significantly and before the election. 

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, pattayasan said:

 

It will be a bullish pattern in the US 10 year bond yields. That goes hand in hand with inflation. Also bullish. The cup and handle is a very bullish pattern and fairly reliable. The break to the upside target is the full depth of the cup.

 

Bullish inflation now? This just gets better.

[pattayasan]

3 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Ah! Right. So at least we have acknowledgement that the economy was falling and that inflation was rising significantly and before the election. 

 

Exce[pt that it wasn't. Falling inflation allowed the Fed to deliver 2 rate cuts totaling 75 basis points. 

[pattayasan]

1 minute ago, nauseus said:

 

Bullish inflation now? This just gets better.

 

Not sure why that's a contradiction in terms for you.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

Exce[pt that it wasn't. Falling inflation allowed the Fed to deliver 2 rate cuts totaling 75 basis points. 

 

You need to read your own stuff more before posting.

[nauseus]

2 minutes ago, pattayasan said:

 

Not sure why that's a contradiction in terms for you.

 

I'm sure.